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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
It's a huge stretch, and it defies logic and history. When has a sequel to a poorly received predecessor ever doubled its gross? Never.
Skyfall will finish in the $180m region. Bond movies are about the easiest films to ever predict.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:58 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
$200m is not a lock yet and whoever says $300m or $250m are not that big of a stretch are obviously joining Excel's madness. It is well hyped and increasing to get $190m for a 23rd movie of a franchise is really good. Reaching $200m is excellent and over-performance. $300m is just not happening.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:30 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
$190m would be the worst inflation-adjusted performance out of the last seven 007-films - on the same level as QUANTUM - International results, pre-sales, reviews & hype don't point towards such a "bad" performance...
And $200m is not "overperforming" when the previous 6 movies adjust to this:
$224m Die Another Day $221m Tomorrow Never Dies $207m Casino Royale $202m The World Is Not Enough $198m GoldenEye $190m Quantum of Solace
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 8:04 am |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am Posts: 16163 Location: Croatia
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
mark66 wrote: $190m would be the worst inflation-adjusted performance out of the last seven 007-films - on the same level as QUANTUM - International results, pre-sales, reviews & hype don't point towards such a "bad" performance...
And $200m is not "overperforming" when the previous 6 movies adjust to this:
$224m Die Another Day $221m Tomorrow Never Dies $207m Casino Royale $202m The World Is Not Enough $198m GoldenEye $190m Quantum of Solace Inflation is partially offset by lower ticket sales though. It's not as easy as that.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:29 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
So i guess $500m for Hobbit would not be overperforming, either.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:45 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Nazgul9 wrote: So i guess $500m for Hobbit would not be overperforming, either. You are comparing apples to oranges...
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:48 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Not really.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:49 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
There's certainly a difference between the consistency of seven films over 13 years (With the last one only four years ago) then the consistency of three films over the course of three years (With the last one nine years ago).
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 11:26 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
If we adjust inflation price tickets then none of Bond movies have made those numbers. No reason for 23rd movie to start bucking trend.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 12:47 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21897 Location: Places
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
looks like it has 100m ow in da bag. 300m is locked up.'
GREAT SUCCESS
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:35 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
I'm sure that early report is bullshit. Still, it's likely heading for $80m+ which is far more than i anticipated.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:39 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21897 Location: Places
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Nazgul9 wrote: I'm sure that early report is bullshit. Still, it's likely heading for $80m+ which is far more than i anticipated. either one locks 300m jack sparrow where you and that dumpster full of trash talk you have at???
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:45 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
I never trash talked about you...I felt it always the other way around.
Anyways $100m OW is not happening and $80m DOES NOT lock $300m. Actually I think people will be so impressed by this opening that they will see it past $300m. Always remember Inception that was released in Summer and had exceptional WOM way better than Skyfall. Plus this can crash faster than people are thinking even with good WOM.
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Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:33 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
If the opening number is precisely 80 million, I see it finishing with around 235 million.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sat Nov 10, 2012 2:40 am |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am Posts: 13270 Location: Vienna
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
I do think this has a small chance of happening.
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Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:55 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21897 Location: Places
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:22 pm |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am Posts: 16163 Location: Croatia
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Nothing would make me happier than to see this club succeed. I never thought this was possible.
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:13 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
SKYFALL's total with previous 007 multipliers:
$439.8m Tomorrow Never Dies $362.2m Casino Royale $358.8m GoldenEye $316.0m The World Is Not Enough $302.4m Die Another Day $221.1m Quantum of Solace
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:21 pm |
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Mau
100% That Bitch
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:42 pm Posts: 16900 Location: Monterrey, Mexico
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
wow Excel hit the jackpot with this club.
_________________ Tongue Pop!
I kneel with Magnus.
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:26 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
It will fall a bit short of 300 million.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:39 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
It'll be close, but nice call, excel.
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:46 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Even if it comes close to this number I would this was a great call by Excel.
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:06 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21897 Location: Places
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Magnus wrote: if this happens, excel will brag about this club forever. C'mon. Lets be honest. It is not as good as my -Iron Man 300 million club - established July, 2007 -Transformers 250 million call - November 2006 -Pirates 3 - sub 300m club -winter 2006 -Narnia 2 under 200 million club - Winter 2007 -The Dark Knight over Indiana Jones - summer 2007 -American Gangster breaking out big - summer 2007 Think, for a moment, about how ballsy each of those were at their inception. Is predicting a movie with ear shattering buz , tracking for 60m+ opening weekend and getting amazing reviews, totaling 300 million THAT outlandish? Transformers, Iron Man, Narnia, and Pirates are my most impressive ones, because when called, they were WAY out there. Who, aside from myself, in their right mind saw Narnia 2 tanking like it did? Transformers was supposed to be the summers biggest bomb. Pirates 3 was a year off the mega hit that was Pirates 2. I have a few other biggies I am forgetting about too. Yes, for every one of those, i may have a SUPERMAN RETURNS or AUSTRALIA call that didn't quite pan out. I also took some time off from every day predicting from 2008-2012 (stock market was killin it, i was busy, sorry). I don't normally create clubs unless it is predicting a HUGE break out, or HUGE disappointment. Between KJ, Box Office Theory, Filmgasm and others, I am probably the best 'home run hitter' around. Some times I whiff, and for some reason, people just dwell on the strike out instead of the 500 foot moonshot I just hit. Some play small ball and focus on hitting a bunch of singles - good. I am selective and swing for the fence. It is like playing the stock market. If everything simply went according to plan, nobody would be any more successful than anyone else. Some always follow the every day advice, others purposely specialize in going against the grain, because they know things will never go exactly as expected. The best are able to read the market, get a feel for it. Figure out what is going to hit at the right time. Just like all the forementioned calls, this is the same deal. Bond is well known, but hasn't been 'huge' in so long that he might almost be considered fresh this around. If the film is any good and gets the right marketing, regardless of POS, it should overperform simply because at this point, the franchise is underrated, if anything. Breaking out hugely seemed obvious to me as soon as word spread that it was amazing. The market was ready. The timing was right. It would not perform like the standard Bond fare had in the past - when it turned out to be good, I knew it was going through the roof. Get a feel for whats going on. Don't think this is some coincience. Movies are not the only subject where I make bold calls that pan out. So give ya boy some cred, this is hardly the first time I've gone totally against the grain, and nailed it. Actually have a new one in the works. Might even be up tonight.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:03 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Autofellatio.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:36 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Sky Fall 300 million club
Excel wrote: -Pirates 3 - sub 300m club -winter 2006 . But Pirates 3 DID pass $300 million.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:53 am |
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