Adjusted numbers mean nothing. They are only a way for "predictors" on sites like these to make people think they know stuff. There are so many problems with adjusted grosses that I cannot even begin to start. I'm surprised nobody else can see the uselessness of such numbers. They're 100% make-believe.

I'd hold back on $500M. Keep in mind that nobody really asked for this.

Despite opening on weekdays Phantom Menace and Revenge of the Sith both SHATTERED the opening day records and came darn close to still breaking OW records.

I think this just might be the movie that finally breaks $100 million opening day.

After that, yeah, $500 million is a good minimum. $600 million if it's not a Phantom Menace-esque embarrassment.

Especially if they completely destroy your argument.

However, one question: will Disney give this the traditional mid/late-May slot and move Avengers, or will Star Wars move to a new, uncharted part of the calendar? Because there's no way they open in the same month.

Maybe move Star Wars closer to the holidays? The James Bond franchise moved from summer to fall with a great deal of success. Though then that puts it closer to Avatar 2...

Ugh, how does a year feel so crowded already when it's only three years away?

I'm guessing Avengers will move to July. Even though Star Wars is arguably the most famous franchise, it'll need to be re-established and kick starting it at the beginning of the summer would be the best to do just that. The first Avengers was beloved, plus there's Iron Man 3 and Captain America 2 before then, so they have the least to lose. Avengers 2 is guaranteed to make money wherever it goes. Chances are Star Wars would still make a ton no matter where on the schedule, but moving Avengers I think is the slightly safer bet.

Well of course they do, they ignore all other factors and assume that the world is EXACTLY the same over a 100 year span, the only difference being inflation. LOL. Adjusted numbers are so utterly flawed. I am not surprised anymore that you don't see that, but I was before when I thought you had an iota of sense.

Whaaa, I don't have an argument so I'll just complainnnnnn.

400m is lock. 500m max.

PS: Algren, why did you get banned? Insulted someone's momma?

Algren undervalues Star Wars and argues when people call him crazy? I am shocked, shocked by this.

It will be 10 year since Star Wars films when it comes up so there will be some pent up demand, especially if it looks great and has great reviews.

I think a move to mid July is just what the doctor ordered. Avengers will keep its May release date as Marvel tend plan out their release dates based on chronological order of the various films they are releasing.

$500m is very likely. Much like The Hobbit will do.

I don't think a move to July is even necessary...

AVENGERS did 77 % ($477m) of its business in its first three weeks and a sequel will be definitely more frontloaded. A SW7 birth on Memorial Day weekend like the original trilogy is still in play...

Um, these locks are ridic.

Iron Man 2 locked for $400m = failure
Batman locked for $500m = failure
Hobbit locked for $400m = failure
More Star Wars locked for $500m = failure

People don't see the logic until it slaps them in the face, and they say "Oh, should've realized why this addition is different from the last". Re: SW, since I've spoken about Hobbit before, the prequels have been shit. Every single one of them was a POS. There is no goodwill. Now paired up with Disney, the studio with the least integrity, it's not going to go down well. Unless they actually have a proper story this time, but it'll make the total on legs.

Even so, Disney wouldn't want to position two of its potentially biggest movies ever so close to each other. They've positioned tentpole movies within about a month of each other before (Cars and POTC2 were pretty close to each other), but within the same month? They would rather have their first money-making machine go as far as it possibly can, then finally have their second money-making machine come in once the first is truly dried out. One opening in May and the other in mid-July (The TDK spot, basically) would work, or even 4th of July weekend.

Also, I understand the worries about overestimating this, but like, this is Star Wars. Even with the prequels it's something that EVERYONE truly cares about. Yesterday I first heard about this from THREE different people that don't normally talk movie news. With three years still to go this is already a REALLY big deal in the general public - I'm sure most of them could even name three movies opening next summer. And the hype is only going to grow from there, especially if they get good talent and market the holy hell out of it (And I mean, it's Disney, c'mon).

I wonder if Disney is gonna add a bunch of Star Wars stuff to their theme parks now. Probably.

Why did the Complete Saga Blu-ray set sell a ridiculous amount of copies? Hell, why did the Prequel Trilogy Blu-ray set sell over a million copies on its own? Why is Star Wars still trending on Twitter 24 hours after the announcement?

The geeks didn't like those movies. The general public did.

As for release date, it seems incredibly unlikely that Star Wars wouldn't get the Memorial Day slot -- after all, it's the original Star Wars that made that a huge date in the first place -- but if not, what about November? Star Wars feels like something that could kill over Thanksgiving and Christmas.

$300M domestic, $1B worldwide.

May 22nd would be 3 weeks after The Avengers. There's no reason they can't coexist.

Btw my prediction is $133M/$409M.

Episode III made $158m in its first four days (and was only the third film to hit $100m over a three-day weekend, even though it opened on a Thursday). Episode VII, with ten years worth of inflation and 3D prices, is not going to make less than that.

That was a 3 day prediction.

It makes no sense business wise to release both in the same quarter. One will open in July. Most likely SW7. Its better for legs anyway.

If Disney wasn't releasing both, it'd be fine for Star Wars to take Memorial Day weekend. But why would Disney put its two biggest films of the year, both with $500m+ potential (easily), in the same month? No way. It'll be July. Or December?

A Star Wars christmas!?

A Star Wars christmas!? the toy sales alone...