Interesting Upside Down is coming out here before America and England.

Does it have a release date or even a studio in the US yet? It looked really good.

Thursday schedules

Broadway/AMC

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ted - 10 showings	Due West 3D - 1 showing (-)	Cosmopolis
Magic Mike - 5 showings	Headhunters - 3 showings (▼ 5)	The Bullet Vanishes
Upside Down - 6 showings	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D - 3 showings (▼ 6)	To Rome with Love
	The Expendables 2 - 3 showings (▼ 6)	Madagascar: Europe's Most Wanted (3D Eng.)
	Intouchables - 4 showings (▼ 6)
	The Thieves - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ted - 8 showings	Due West - 5 showings (▼ 6)	Due West 3D
Magic Mike - 5 showings	Resident Evil: Retribution - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D
Upside Down - 6 showings	The Bullet Vanishes - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Seeking A Friend for the End of the World
	The Expendables 2 - 2 showings (▼ 5)	The Thieves
	Intouchables - 4 showings (▼ 6)	GF*BF
	Vulgaria - 1 showing (▲ 0)	To Rome with Love

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ted - 8 showings	Due West - 3 showings (▲ 0)	The Taste of Money
Magic Mike - 6 showings	Due West 3D - 2 showings (▼ 6)	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D
Upside Down - 6 showings	Headhunters - 2 showings (▼ 5)	To Rome with Love
	Resident Evil: Retribution - 2 showings (▲ 1)	The Dark Knight Rises
	The Bullet Vanishes - 3 showings (▼ 6)
	The Expendables 2 - 2 showings (▼ 5)
	Intouchables - 6 showings (-)
	Moonrise Kingdom - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Vulgaria - 1 showing (-)

UA

Langham Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ted - 14 showings	Due West 3D - 4 showings (▼ 9)	Chernobyl Diaries
Magic Mike - 4 showings	Due West - 2 showings (-)	Intouchables
Upside Down - 5 showings	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D - 4 showings (▼ 9)	The Possession
Looper - 5 showings	The Bullet Vanishes - 3 showings (▼ 7)
	The Expendables 2 - 1 showing (▼ 6)

MCL

The Grand Cinema
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ted - 10 showings	Due West 3D - 5 showings (-)	Resident Evil: Retribution
Magic Mike - 5 showings	The Bullet Vanishes - 4 showings (▼ 6)	ATM
Upside Down - 6 showings	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D - 5 showings (▼ 6)	Cosmopolis
Looper - 5 showings	The Expendables 2 - 6 showings (▼ 8)	GF*BF
	Chernobyl Diaries - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Friends With Kids
	Intouchables - 5 showings (▼ 8)	I Miss You
	Moonrise Kingdom - 1 showing (-)	The Cold Light of Day
	Seeking A Friend for the End of the World - 2 showings (-)
	Starbuck - 5 showings (-)
	The Taste of Money - 2 showings (▼ 5)
	To Rome with Love - 1 showing (-)
	Vulgaria - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Ted is getting 2 screens at most Broadway/AMC locations as well as UA theaters. Magic Mike is playing at all Broadway/AMC theaters but less than half of UA theaters. Upside Down is going very wide. For holdovers, Resident Evil 5 is being cut in favour of more Ted showtimes. On the flipside, Intouchables is holding its showtimes fairly well. Due West is getting its 3D showtimes cut while 2D holds most of its showings.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		September 27
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ted	--	8,146	--
2	Upside Down	--	2,515	--
3	Due West	--	2,309	--
4	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	1,718	--
5	The Bullet Vanishes	--	970	--

Very good for Ted. Decent for Upside Down. That doesn't look like a good number for Due West. Not bad for Resident Evil 5 but it's not going to keep this up through the weekend. OK for The Bullet Vanishes.

More theaters have released advanced ticketing for Taken 2 on Saturday. The majority of shows are filling up fairly quickly and it's been put in either the biggest screen or the 2nd largest. I still have no clue though what kind of release Taken 2 is getting this weekend. Some theaters are giving it full day showings, others half day (afternoon + night), and a few have only given it night showings. It's too early to predict anything right now. We'll know more tomorrow when a sizable number of theaters release their Saturday schedules.

								Sep 20 WKD
Rank	Movie	Distributor	Weekend BO	Weeks	Engmnts	Eng. average	% change	B.O. Cume
1	Going With The West	Newport Entertainment	$691,683	1	56	$12,351		$871,737
2	Resident Evil: Retribution	Sony	$433,709	2	42	$10,326	-66%	$2,057,070
3	The Expendables 2	Intercontinental Films	$247,876	2	38	$6,523	-53%	$1,495,609
4	The Bullet Vanishes	Emperor Motion Pictures Group	$242,374	2	37	$6,551	-34%	$756,258
5	The Intouchables	Golden Scene Co	$151,998	3	18	$8,444	+12%	$564,616
6	Chernobyl Diaries	Intercontinental Films	$78,098	1	19	$4,110		$78,098
7	Headhunters	Edko Films	$26,659	1	4	$6,665		$26,659
8	Di Su Xi Ju	Golden Scene Co	$18,218	7	13	$1,401	-55%	$3,859,300
9	Do-Nui Mat (Taste Of Money, The)	Cable	$13,029	1	6	$2,171		$13,029
10	Bernie	Millennium Entertainment	$11,644	2	5	$2,329	-19%	$31,915

Nice opening for Due West. RE5 held better than RE4's 3rd weekend but it is a little more than $100,000 behind it. It should still pass it with continued IMAX showings until October 18. The Expendables 2 has passed the original even with the delayed release. It'll finish with about 1.8m. The Bullet Vanishes had a strong hold even with formidable local competition. Intouchables benefited from extra screens added and increased. 1m should be achievable now. Chernobyl Diaries bombed. Headhunters opened well while playing in only 4 theaters. Vulgaria had a decent hold in the face of direct competition. The Taste of Money blew. Bernie had a good hold but after starting small, that is not saying much.

Tai Chi 0 is also getting advanced screenings this weekend ahead of its official release next Thursday. Holdovers like Resident Evil 5, Expendables 2, The Bullet Vanishes are getting their showtimes cut to make room for these special screenings.

It will also play in IMAX this weekend which means it will cut into RE5's weekend showtimes.

	Thursday				September 27
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	Gross (USD)	% chg (adm.)
1	Ted	--	27,779	$234,072	--
2	Upside Down	--	9,239	$78,660	--
3	Due West	--	8,718	$87,047	--
4	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	3,119	$40,797	--
5	The Bullet Vanishes	--	2,624	$21,653	--

*Grosses in the table are always overestimated. Do not take these as final. Thursday actuals will be released tomorrow.

Excellent start for Ted. This could hit 1m for the 4-day. I was a bit skeptical that Ted could produce a 1m opening given that weekday holidays deflate 4-day weekend admissions but it's now a possibility. Upside Down finishes in 2nd place in admissions but drops down to 3rd in gross. This is a pretty good start for Upside Down. Due West is holding more like Sex & Zen. These two will be in a see-saw battle this weekend. Taken 2, Tai Chi 0 and Finding Nemo (3D re-release) all getting weekend showtimes complicates things. Resident Evil: Retribution and The Bullet Vanishes both performed decently to land in the top 5 but they will have their showtimes cut this weekend so they are not out of the woods just yet.

Rest of the top 10
6. Looper - 2,466 admissions ($20,093)
7. Magic Mike - 2,036 ($17,866)
8. Intouchables - 1,997 ($17,916)
9. The Expendables 2 - 1,832 ($15,026)
10. Headhunters - 290 ($2,883)

Looper came back at night after starting out in 9th. I still think this will overtake RE5 and The Bullet Vanishes and land in the top 5. That is terrible for Magic Mike but it still has a chance to grab #6 if it can beat RE5 and The Bullet Vanishes on Saturday and Sunday. Solid hold for Intouchables. It dropped around 27% from last Thursday. Let's see how the weekend will affect it.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			September 28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Ted	--	10,166	--	+24.8%
2	Upside Down	--	2,831	--	+12.6%
3	Due West	--	2,292	--	-0.7%
4	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	1,784	--	+3.8%
5	Magic Mike	--	1,043	--	--

Superb for Ted. Good for Upside Down. Not good news for Due West. Ok for Resident Evil. Good increase for Magic Mike.

Other notables
Love Never Dies - 871 admissions ($14,293) -- OD pre-sales for the sequel to Phantom of the Opera
The Assassins - 576 admissions [ranked #10] -- DOA mainland movie

Saturday schedules

Note: For the openers, the # in parentheses means the number of showings it will have on that day.

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers - # of Thu. shows	HOs - # Sat. shows	Leaving
Taken 2 - Sat. (4)	Due West 3D - 1	2	Cosmopolis
Finding Nemo (3D Eng.) - Sat. (5)	Headhunters - 3	3	The Bullet Vanishes
Ted - Thu. (10), Sat. (11)	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D - 3	1	To Rome with Love
Magic Mike - Thu. (5), Sat. (6)	The Expendables 2 - 3	2	Madagascar: Europe's Most Wanted (3D Eng.)
Upside Down - Thu. (6), Sat. (6)	Intouchables - 4	3	The Thieves (Thursday)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers - # of Thu. shows	HOs - # Sat. shows	Leaving
Taken 2 - Sat. (6)	Due West - 0	4	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D
The Assassins - Sat. (2)	Due West 3D - 5	1	Seeking A Friend for the End of the World
Ted - Thu. (8), Sat. (13)	The Bullet Vanishes - 4	3	The Thieves
Magic Mike - Thu. (5), Sat. (3)	Intouchables - 4	3	GF*BF
Upside Down - Thu. (6), Sat. (7)			To Rome with Love
			Vulgaria (Thursday)
			Resident Evil: Retribution (Friday)
			The Expendables 2 (Thursday)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers - # of Thu. Shows	HOs - # Fri. shows	HOs - # Sat. shows	Leaving
Taken 2 - Sat. (7)	Due West 3D - 2	2	5	The Taste of Money
Finding Nemo (3D Can.) - Sat. (1)	Headhunters - 2	2	1	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D
Finding Nemo (3D Eng.) - Sat. (2)	Resident Evil: Retribution - 2	1	1	To Rome with Love
The Assassins - Fri. (2), Sat. (2)	The Bullet Vanishes - 3	3	1	The Dark Knight Rises
Ted - Thu. (8), Fri. (8), Sat. (11)	The Expendables 2 - 2	2	1	Due West (Friday)
Magic Mike - Thu. (6), Fri. (6), Sat. (3)	Intouchables - 6	6	4	Moonrise Kingdom (Friday)
Upside Down - Thu. (6), Fri. (6), Sat. (7)				Vulgaria (Thursday)

Langham Place
New	Holdovers - # of Thu. Shows	HOs - # Fri. shows	HOs - # Sat. shows	Leaving
Taken 2 - Sat. (4)	Due West 3D - 4	5	6	Chernobyl Diaries
Finding Nemo (3D Can.) - Sat. (2)	Due West - 2	2	2	Intouchables
Tai Chi 0 - Sat. (1)	Resident Evil: Retribution 3D - 4	3	1	The Possession
The Assassins - Fri. (3), Sat. (3)	The Bullet Vanishes - 3	3	3	The Expendables 2 (Thursday)
Ted - Thu. (14), Fri. (15), Sat. (15)
Magic Mike - Thu. (4), Fri. (3), Sat. (3)
Upside Down - Thu. (5), Fri. (7), Sat. (7)
Looper - Thu. (5), Fri. (7), Sat. (6)

The Grand Cinema
New	Holdovers - # of Thu. Shows	HOs - # Fri. shows	HOs - # Sat. shows	Leaving
Taken 2 - Sat. (11)	Due West 3D - 2	5	4	Resident Evil: Retribution
Finding Nemo (3D Can.) - Sat. (2)	Resident Evil: Retribution - 2	4	2	ATM
Finding Nemo (3D Eng.) - Sat. (3)	The Bullet Vanishes - 3	4	5	Cosmopolis
The Assassins - Fri. (4), Sat. (6)	The Expendables 2 - 2	3	5	GF*BF
Tai Chi 0 - Sat. (1)	Chernobyl Diaries - 3	3	2	Friends With Kids
Ted - Thu. (10), Fri. (14), Sat. (14)	Intouchables - 5	4	4	I Miss You
Magic Mike - Thu. (5), Fri. (5), Sat. (6)	Moonrise Kingdom - 1	1	1	The Cold Light of Day
Upside Down - Thu. (6), Fri. (5), Sat. (7)	Seeking A Friend for the End of the World - 2	1	1
Looper - Thu. (5), Fri. (5), Sat. (7)	Starbuck - 5	3	3
	The Taste of Money - 2	1	1
	To Rome with Love - 1	1	1
	Vulgaria - 1	1	1

The # of showings for Taken 2 on Saturday is mixed. About half have given it full day showings while others have opted for a lighter push with only half day showtimes or two showtimes per day. The 3D re-release for Finding Nemo has been picked up by about 15 theaters but almost all have decided to give Finding Nemo 1-3 showings. Tai Chi 0 is only showing once a day at those locations deciding to run a special screening. The Assassins has only gotten a couple of showings per day at most theaters playing it. Ted is not affected by these new movies and has increased in showtimes on Saturday. Although a couple of places have given Taken 2 the biggest screen, Ted is showing on the 2nd and 3rd biggest screens. Other places that have given Taken 2 a smaller screen have put Ted on the biggest and 2nd biggest screens instead. Upside Down and Looper are seeing showtimes grow on Saturday while Magic Mike is being sliced by a quarter.

The biggest losers over the holdovers side are The Expendables 2, Resident Evil: Retribution and Vulgaria. Intouchables has also seen showings decrease. Due West seems to be the only exception.

Taken 2 will still place in the top 5 although I think it will end up slightly lower than my early prediction. It is aiming for a $250,000 2-day start.

		Thursday Actuals						September 27
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Screens	Days	Total
--	1	Ted	--	$169,118	--	47	1	$443,691
--	2	Due West	--	$69,876	--	53	8	$1,273,482
--	3	Upside Down	--	$55,683	--	33	1	$55,683
--	4	Looper	--	$21,390	--	23	1	$21,390
--	5	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	$18,305	--	44	15	$2,396,038
--	6	The Bullet Vanishes	--	$14,937	--	28	15	$866,057
--	7	Intouchables	--	$12,934	--	19	22	$9,667
--	8	Magic Mike	--	$12,450	--	26	1	$18,056
--	9	The Expendables 2	--	$10,603	--	30	15	$1,588,314
--	10	Headhunters	--	$2,087	--	4	8	$39,981

Intouchables	$628,073
Diva	$551,048
GF*BF	$448,391
To Rome With Love	$373,501

Ok, 1m is out for Ted. $750,000 is still up for grabs. Although Due West has a slight lead over Upside Down, Upside Down could come back on Saturday and Sunday. They'll each make about $300,000 for the 4-day weekend. Looper was underestimated. It could reach $150,000 for the 4-day since action movies do much better on the weekend. Here is where things get tricky. Resident Evil 5 and The Bullet Vanishes are going to decrease in showtimes. Intouchables is also decreasing slightly. Magic Mike is also getting its showings slashed. In my opinion, Resident Evil and Intouchables will fight for #6. Intouchables will perform much better than the other films on the weekend but Resident Evil 5 still has IMAX. Expendables 2 is no longer looking at a total of 1.8m. The best it can hope for is 1.7m but it is not making enough money and showings are getting cut so even then, 1.7m is not a lock. Headhunters is looking to fall over 50% from last weekend.

	Friday					September 28
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	Gross (USD)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Ted	--	32,886	$277,717	--	+18.4%
2	Upside Down	--	10,402	$88,861	--	+12.6%
3	Due West	--	8,344	$82,930	--	-4.3%
4	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	3,400	$44,412	--	+9.0%
5	Looper	--	3,244	$26,611	--	--

Great number for Ted. Upside Down is doing pretty well. Terrible for Due West. Good increase for Resident Evil. Looper increased about 33% from Thursday to sneak into the top 5.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			September 29
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Ted	--	15,944	--	+56.8%
2	Upside Down	--	4,016	--	+41.9%
3	Taken 2	--	3,335	--	--
4	Due West	--	2,539	--	+10.8%
5	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	2,129	--	+19.3%

Awesome for Ted. Upside Down is really making a push for #2. Taken 2 pre-sales look solid. Lots of people do not know about these special screenings so this number is pretty good. I think it could finish with 15,000 admissions today. Due West is having a terrible weekend. The worst increase of the top 5. Resident Evil 5 has had very high pre-sales the last 2 days but weak walk-ins. Looper will pass it in admissions by the end of the day.

As Taken 2 floods HK theaters with special screenings, let's look further ahead to this winter.

True to form, Golden Scene has scheduled the last installment of Twilight for December 20. I thought scheduling Part I on Christmas weekend last year was stupid but it's even stupider for Part 2 this year.

Let's look at the Winter release schedule first.

2012 Winter Release Schedule

Release Date	Movie Title
November 22	Life of Pi Rise of the Guardians All About My Wife Caught in the Web
November 29	Chimpanzee
November 30	Together
December 6	My Sassy Hubby In The House
December 12	CZ12
December 13	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Woody Allen: A Documentary
December 18	The Grandmasters
December 20	Jack Reacher Les Miserables Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Wreck-It Ralph Hotel Transylvania The Guillotines
January 3	The Impossible
January 8	Lost for Words
January 17	Django Unchained Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

Life of Pi should be a minor hit. It has 3 weeks between itself and The Hobbit and there's no other major releases coming out before it.

I really want to look at December where most of the big releases are coming out. Ok, The Hobbit on December 13. This will be the major event of the winter. It'll make at least 9m and will most likely gross 10m. The December 20 week looks extremely busy. You've got The Grandmasters from Wong Kar-Wai, then the other releases on December 20. The bigger movies should be Jack Reacher and Breaking Dawn Part 2 but here's the thing about BD. Last year, I made a post saying how the Twilight series never pays off at Christmas. Well, this year more than ever, this is especially true.
Ok, last year, I'll give it that there was no big female-driven film but this year has The Hobbit and Les Miserables. The Twilight series has a devoted fanbase but is it enough to keep females from watching The Hobbit or Les Miserables? I'm not so sure. Even if The Hobbit disappoints on OW with 2.5-3m, Christmas week features great holds so a lot of the attention will still be focused on The Hobbit and not on Breaking Dawn Pt. 2. We've seen before how a blockbuster affects Twilight. New Moon was released against Avatar and it ended up becoming the only film in the franchise to miss 2m. The Twilight series hasn't grown much since then (in fact, Twilight is still the highest grossing film of the franchise) so I expect BD Pt. 2 to decrease with an $850,000 OW/1.9m finish. Jack Reacher should do well because it's Tom Cruise and he's a huge draw here. With his starpower coming back after MI4, this should open close to 1m. Wreck-It Ralph doesn't look like the traditional animated fare. It seems geared towards adult males than families so it could potentially pull better numbers than Megamind. I see about a $500,000 OW. Hotel Transylvania is DOA. About $120,000. Les Miserables is banking on the popularity of musicals right now. Phantom of the Opera: Royal Albert Hall 25th Anniversary was released last December and it is still showing in theaters this month. Les Miserables could open to about $400,000. It's tough to say where The Grandmasters will fall right now. I'd say $450,000 OW just because it talks about Yip Man.

	Saturday					September 29
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	Gross (USD)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Ted	--	53,261	$433,453	--	+62.0%
2	Upside Down	--	14,405	$118,297	--	+38.5%
3	Taken 2	--	12,704	$106,480	--	--
4	Due West	--	9,714	$98,327	--	+16.4%
5	Looper	--	4,678	$37,986	--	+44.2%

	Weekend Projections			September 27
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Ted	$1,050,000	+382.4%	$1,495,000
2	Upside Down	$320,000		$320,000
3	Due West	$300,000	-56.6%	$1,505,000
4	Taken 2	$200,000		$200,000
5	Looper	$135,000		$135,000

With Ted's Saturday explosion and an expected increase on Sunday, Ted is on track to pass 1m for the 4 day weekend. That prediction yesterday bit me in the ass.

Upside Down increased its gap from Due West on Saturday and is now expected to win the race for #2 this weekend. The holiday is not helping Due West at all as its Saturday admissions only increased 11.4% from Thursday. Taken 2 began its HK run with a solid 12,700 admissions on Saturday. As more people are aware of its special screenings along with the added effect of the holiday, this will continue to increase throughout the week. For the 2 day, it is looking at a $200,000 weekend. Looper has built on its slow start on Thursday and has firmly entrenched itself as the #5 biggest movie this weekend. It passed Resident Evil 5 on Saturday and will continue to build its audience through positive word of mouth with another increase set for Sunday.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			September 30
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Ted	--	19,220	--	+20.5%
2	Upside Down	--	5,500	--	+37.0%
3	Taken 2	--	4,249	--	+27.4%
4	Due West	--	2,612	--	+2.9%
5	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	2,451	--	+15.1%

Huge for Ted. Upside Down and Taken 2 both shot up nicely. Due West might not be getting a holiday boost as much as other films are but next week should see a lower drop, ala Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy. Resident Evil 5 saw a nice bump.

	Sunday					September 30
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	Gross (USD)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Ted	--	56,855	$459,771	--	+6.7%
2	Upside Down	--	15,938	$129,641	--	+10.6%
3	Taken 2	--	15,199	$124,862	--	+19.6%
4	Due West	--	9,074	$90,230	--	-6.6%
5	Looper	--	5,147	$41,531	--	+10.0%

	Weekend adm.			Sep 27-30
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ted	--	170,781	--
2	Upside Down	--	49,984	--
3	Due West	--	35,850	--
4	Taken 2	--	25,307	--
5	Looper	--	15,535	--

	Weekend Estimates			September 27
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Ted	$1,050,000	+382.4%	$1,495,000
2	Upside Down	$320,000		$320,000
3	Due West	$300,000	-56.6%	$1,505,000
4	Taken 2	$200,000		$200,000
5	Looper	$135,000		$135,000

No change from projections.

Monday holiday pre-sales

	Monday adm.	(so far)			October 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ted	--	20,071	--	+4.4%
2	Upside Down	--	4,876	--	-11.3%
3	Taken 2	--	4,255	--	+0.1%
4	Due West	--	2,621	--	+0.3%
5	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	2,619	--	+6.9%

Good for Ted. Huge decrease for Upside Down. Decent for Taken 2. After the week it's been having, not a good increase for Due West. Another solid increase for RE5.

*I made a mistake with Ted's estimated total. It should be 1.325m not 1.495m.

REVISED Sept. 27 Weekend Estimates

	Weekend Estimates			September 27
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Ted	$1,050,000	+382.4%	$1,325,000
2	Upside Down	$320,000		$320,000
3	Due West	$300,000	-56.6%	$1,505,000
4	Taken 2	$200,000		$200,000
5	Looper	$135,000		$135,000

	Monday adm.				October 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ted	--	61,934	--	+8.9%
2	Taken 2	--	16,674	--	+9.7%
3	Upside Down	--	16,414	--	+3.0%
4	Due West	--	9,817	--	+8.2%
5	Looper	--	5,957	--	+15.7%

Ted saw a 5,000 increase in admissions on Monday. Taken 2 overtook Upside Down in admissions for the first time. Due West has been stuck in the 9,000-10,000 admissions range since Saturday. Good bump for Looper.

That's not the big story at this moment. Earlier this evening at about 8:20 PM, a commercial boat carrying about 120 people collided with a ferry and sank. 101 people were rescued but 8 people are now dead and there's still some dozen people missing.

	Tuesday adm.	(so far)			October 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ted	--	16,568	--	-17.5%
2	Upside Down	--	4,018	--	-17.6%
3	Taken 2	--	3,793	--	-10.9%
4	Due West	--	2,510	--	-4.2%
5	Resident Evil: Retribution	--	2,386	--	-8.9%

Huge drops in pre-sales for all films.

Next year, summer animation will be extremely competitive with 4 movies already set with a release date.

2013 Summer Animation Schedule

Release Date	Movie Title
June 27	Epic
July 4	Despicable Me 2
July 11	Monsters University
August 1	The Smurfs 2

Epic will fare the worst of the 4 but it does have the July 1 holiday and it is first out of the gate. The first Despicable Me opened softly and it's total wasn't anything spectacular so I only see a slight increase for the sequel. Monsters University has a pretty good release date and it is far away from The Smurfs. Pixar movies have tapered off in HK with Brave bombing here but Monsters University could be the film to right the Pixar ship. The Smurfs 2 is coming off a successful predecessor where it was one of the lone bright spots for animation in 2010. I see a bigger increase and it will duel MU for the summer animation title.

Turbo hasn't gotten a release date yet so theoretically, it could slot in the July 18 spot or around mid August.

	2-day holiday estimates
Rank	Title	2 day est.	Total (Oct. 2)
1	Ted	$700,000	$2,025,000
2	Taken 2	$220,000	$420,000
3	Upside Down	$205,000	$525,000
4	Due West	$165,000	$1,670,000
5	Looper	$100,000	$235,000

Ted exploded and has already passed The Hangover 2. Taken 2 has also been building momentum ahead of its official release as it is already grossed 2/3 of Taken's cume. It also overtook Upside Down as the weekend progressed and has been widening the gap. Taken 2 will increase next week based on it having 4 days as opposed to 2 and it will pass 1.2m. Upside Down performed decently but it is starting to show cracks. It had the smallest increase on Monday and has been falling behind Taken 2 every day since Taken 2 came out. Due West had no noticeable holiday effect but next week it should have the best hold of all the holdovers. Looper has grown tremendously throughout the week as it more than doubled its Thursday admissions on Sunday and Monday saw it have the biggest increase of the top 5.

Actuals (through October 2)

1. Ted - $1,999,984 (6 day weekend actual)
2. Upside Down - $490,002 (6 day weekend actual)
3. Due West - $1,680,193
4. Taken 2 - $373,949 (4 day weekend actual)
Looper - $180,527 (6 day weekend actual)
The Assassins - $109,605 (5 day weekend actual)
Finding Nemo 3D - $91,553 (4 day weekend actual)
Magic Mike - $83,816 (6 day weekend actual)
Intouchables - $772,399
Resident Evil: Retribution - $2,533,829
The Bullet Vanishes - $973,558

Almost everything was overestimated. Due West was the only film to be underestimated.

Not much change at the top. It's still an excellent sum for Ted. Pretty decent for Upside Down and while Taken 2 went down $50,000, it's still an excellent preview launch. Response so far has been encouraging and word of mouth has been very good. Bodes extremely well for its official start this week. Looper faltered. Terrible for The Assassins. Not bad for Finding Nemo compared to past 3D re-releases. Magic Mike stunk. Not even $100,000 with 2 holidays to help it. Yikes. Weak word of mouth from Contagion and Haywire, its subject matter and its III rating are to blame. Intouchables continues its push for 1m. Resident Evil 5 is the first of the series to pass 2.5m. The Bullet Vanishes will creep past 1m.

Great for Ted. Good for Upside Down and Taken 2. Mediocre for Looper. Terrible for Magic Mike.

For comparison, Ted did $274,000 in 2-day previews and Taken 2 did $374,000 in 4-day during holiday. And Taken 2 is a sequel. It's likely Taken 2 won't make as much as Ted did its first weekend.

Skyfall garnered $346,399 from 40,134 admissions on Thursday. It is looking at a 1.9-2m OW. It will be the only Bond film to pass 3m and 4m.

But next week, Cold War makes its highly anticipated debut on the big screen. If this week doesn't turn out to be the biggest November weekend ever, next week will.

Nice to have you back, Bluebomb.

Sunday will decide whether or not Skyfall breaks 2m this weekend. It'll be very close. It cannot drop more than 6.5% on Sunday. If it does, 2m will not happen.

Even if Skyfall doesn't achieve this, it has already made more in 3 days than it did with CR/QoS's OW. Skyfall's OW will increase 65% from CR/QoS at the very least.

That's not all. This weekend has a shot of being the biggest November weekend on record. The record is held by the November 3rd weekend from last year. If Skyfall makes 2m, this is a realistic possibility.

Skyfall weekend estimate - $1,950,000

Skyfall fell more than 11% on Sunday which suggests weak word of mouth and demand being met. It won't break 2m but that's where all the bad news stops.

Skyfall will increase 65% from both CR and QoS. More mainlanders/influx of British people, higher ticket prices and hot reviews accounts for most of this increase. It will pass 2m in just 5 days.
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Monday pre-sales - 4,898 (-71% from Thursday pre-sales)

Ouch! I didn't see this eroding so quickly. If it keeps on declining at this fast pace, it could fall over 70% next weekend. Early user reviews have been less than stellar for Skyfall. Since it only has decent word of mouth in HK, good legs most likely will not happen, especially with Cold War opening next week.

Cold War takes over the biggest screen next weekend. Pre-sales have looked solid at most theaters but they haven't been selling as fast as Skyfall did. Thursday looks a bit worrisome but Friday has seen admissions soar. With Skyfall exploding this weekend, theaters will have to make a big decision as to where to put their biggest screens on Saturday/Sunday. Most have already given Cold War the biggest screen on Thursday and Friday but if Skyfall cannot match the pace of Cold War, Cold War will take the biggest screen from Skyfall and that could give it the edge to win the weekend after Skyfall's surprising OW.

Moviegoers that caught the previews last week have given it a good rating so it seems word of mouth will spread nicely. I don't think it will have Overheard 2 legs but a higher OW is expected after the huge successes of the past 6 months (Vulgaria, Love in the Buff, A Simple Life, Nightfall). 1-1.2m OW is what I expect right now.

The WOM for Skyfall here is also surprisingly not-so-great. People didn't like more realistic Bond they are complaints of less action and more talks from most of the reviewers.

I watched Skyfall and I hated it. The action was decent but there were too many plotholes and inconsistencies. Seems like a good minority agree with me.

How is Skyfall doing in Singapore?

It opened huge and should have done way better than QoS and CR here as well. There were too many shows added on Friday specially in the evening from 7pm-10pm (every 15 minute there was a show and each show was about 85% full).