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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Beasts of the Southern Wild has TWENTY 100s on Metacritic, and is on track for at least $10 million at the box office, maybe even $15+ million if it expands well. It probably won't win anything, but it should be good for Picture, Screenplay and Actress nominations. Maybe a tech nomination or Directing if it's REALLY embraced at the end of the year.
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Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:08 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Best Supporting Actor might be in play, too.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:16 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
David wrote: Sorry my post wasn't any help to you, Chippy. Just know I think the world of you.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:12 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Hope Springs is at 100% with 17 in, and an 8.1 average. Is Meryl looking at nomination #18 already?
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:48 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
So Gatsby is out...
I wonder what the chances are for Daniel Day-Lewis to win again. We all know how good he is and this could hardly be a more perfect role in a more perfect movie. But three LEADING wins with five noms...that'd be SOMETHING.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:57 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
His name is Joaquin Phoenix, Lecter, and he's going to win.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:06 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Interestingly enough, no one has ever won an Acting Oscar for a Spielberg film. Dunno if that's helpful at all to predicting his win. Though I feel like Phoenix, Hawkes and Jackman are just as much threats, and none of them have an Oscar yet, let alone two.
Right now I'm suspecting that Lincoln won't live up to the public hype (What was the last serious Spielberg that did? Or any Spielberg?), but it'll still slip in to Picture (If War Horse could...) and Actor (Because it's DANIEL DAY-LEWIS), plus some techs.
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:06 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Pheonix is the favorite, I am not arguing that. I wouldn't even bring this up, if it wasn't for....DANIEL DAY-LEWIS!
Phoenix should have already won for Gladiator...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:09 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I don't see Day-Lewis winning. It's too soon for a third win, and there are other heavyweight contenders.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:12 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I don't see how DDL loses.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:05 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38234
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Dr. Lecter wrote: So Gatsby is out...
I think Gatsby's exactly the type of movie that could get in with a 55% RT or something. It can soak up some senior citizen safe Oscar movie votes. I wouldn't bury it yet.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:48 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Shack wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: So Gatsby is out...
I think Gatsby's exactly the type of movie that could get in with a 55% RT or something. It can soak up some senior citizen safe Oscar movie votes. I wouldn't bury it yet. He was referring to it being out of contention this year because it's been delayed to summer 2013.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:50 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21927 Location: Places
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
christian bale will win
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:37 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
For the Terrence Malick movie where he romances starlets on the beach and goes to rock concerts?
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:13 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I think Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the only movies released so far this year that will be nominated for Best Picture.
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Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:58 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38234
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I would take Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor over DDL at this point. Reading the early word on the Master it really seems like Joaquin's moment career wise + 3rd Oscar for DDL was always going to be an uphill climb. Plus Phoenix's looks like a perfect example of a "half retard" performance and we know how those do.
I'm guessing the Master ends up a "The signature 2nd or 3rd strongest movie, no chance at winning" case
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:32 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
It's no doubt dangerous, of course, to see Best Actor only as Joaquin vs. Daniel. We seriously should not forget:
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:16 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Who's that?
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:49 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Wolverine, of course.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:57 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Argo apparently played like gangbusters at Telluride today. http://www.deadline.com/2012/08/ben-aff ... contender/
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Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:18 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I'm not surprised. Affleck is a good director. He understands how to create films both crowd-pleasing and thoughtful.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:26 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Affleck's strong directorial career is a hugely pleasant surprise. Back when everyone had written him off as an actor around 2005 or 2006, it's nice to see him pull this second life out.
Gone Baby Gone and The Town picked up a few Oscar noms combined, but I think Argo is going to be a huge player this year.
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Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:35 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I could actually see Argo being a Picture winner contender if the Academy REALLY goes for it. But right now it at least looks like a good bet for a Picture nod.
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Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:34 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I can't see it winning. If nominated, it will be this year's Frost/Nixon (or Michael Clayton). There is almost guaranteed to be another film with more immediate sentimental appeal.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:55 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I wonder if Lincoln will have one or more Best Supporting Actor contenders. Such a huge cast: Walton Goggins, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, John Hawkes, Hal Holbrook, Tommy Lee Jones, Tim Blake Nelson, James Spader, David Strathairn, and more.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:59 pm |
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