Curious to see how 500m will happen. 475m seems like best case scenario right now. Even if it breaks 300m by next sunday it would need a high 3 multiplier from next weekend to hit 500.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. See, I am not a fan of the way moviegoers are behaving the way they are. But there is no denying that this IS HAPPENING.

I don't think mdana says that people should not go to movies at the moment. He just explains why they don't. For some reason you feel offended by this reasonable explanation.

For my part, I maintain the claim that people are THAT stupid.But it doesn't change that they are. Besides, it is not just the fear. I think the shooting simply dampened interest in movies at the moment, by the way of a subconscious association. That is not even something we can voluntarily control.

So like it or not, hate it or not and bang your head against the wall as much as you like...but many many people decided to skip the movies last weekend.

Hey, mdana, you not bothered by the "bullshit"? Or is it just when i would have said it?

Contrary to what Biggestgeekever said, the average holdover drop is about the same between the two weekends. Sure, there were two more openers but the fact that TDKR was on quite a few more screens than TDK (thus taking away screens from other movies, even if not all of those seats were filled) makes up for that somewhat.

Again, there was an effect but it wasn't as big as some of you claim.

1) According to BOM, the three openers in 2008 got 15,600 screens versus the 11,800 Rises got.

2) It's not just the holds, but what films they were and the point in their release cycles. Spider-Man dropping 69% on its is far more severe than the very frontloaded Hellboy 2 dropping 71% in its second weekend. It's even more apparent when you compare it to Hancock.

I'm not convinced that TDKR will make it to 500M. It certainly could, but I don't think it's for certain. With an opening so close to TDK, it will be interesting to see how it holds up during the week and next weekend.

I am not sure if I understand your post. It could be a lost in translation sort of thing, but are you saying that because the weekend drops are roughly the same, nothing happened?

That would make more sense if TDKR had made $193m or roughly the equivalent of the three openers in 2008, but it made $33m less. Also, the box office went up 76.4% on TDK's OW from the previous weekend, but this year this weekend was only up by 45.4% from last weekend. Would we not expect much better drops when the market does not increase as much, no? If the top 12 had been around $270m, then you would have a point. However, the market did not do the same as in 2008 and you are only using as limited amount of information from that period as possible to make your faulty point.

No, i have been saying 10% happened.

Your point about weekend increases doesn't make any sense.

Thanks well stated.

I think TDKR could miss 500 million as it will likley start falling behind very soon.

You constantly post your belief. When you try and explain it, if someone refutes your contention, you go back to stating your belief. You think z happened, because z happened when x+y happened in the past, but you are not acknowledging that this time something closer to x+.5y happened, obviously z did not happen.

Don't bring algebra in.

I haven't really heard anyone refute anyone on here. Everyone is stating beliefs. There's history, a shit load of expectations, and bizarre projections. 10% is still a lot of people. And 10% is not saying it ISN"T HAPPENING. 60,000 people a state and it being on the minds of everyone is still huge. There's less evidence to support 30%. None of the drops are unprecedented or even ridiculous. TDKR had a better multiplier than TDK for the 3Day, and the midnights pretty much indicated it wasn't coming within 25 million of the record.

That said, if should have no problem making up the 15-20 million it lost opening weekend as it should have a scaled version of the box office in japan after the tsunami hit.

Well said.

We all have our opinions on what we think the impact was but we'll never know for certain. What is evident is that TDKR was impacted yes, but it never looked like breaking the weekend record (maybe in admissions yes but not $$).

It doesn't need the over analysis.

Of course not, people have to eat, they don't have to watch movies.
If 10 people got murdered in target you would probably see a decrease in attendance there and increase at wall-mart. It's not at all logical or reasonable but, hey, neither is half of the population (obviously.)

The whole discussion is algebra, so it seems contradictory to now deny its value. X+Y should have happened. Everyone agrees that after Z was introduced only X happened. The whole discussion is what value to give Y. I can't take one side of the arguement serious, because after they lecture us this is all conjecture, they state a certain value is impossible. In the case of someone like gun it may be due to a faulty grasp of historical precedent. Even the ROTS case he used to buttress his point negates his conclusion, because he of incorrect midnight ratio.

I thought this was a box office site made up of pettifoggers nitpicking over the picuyane. Pardon moi...

I wasn't incorrect, ROTS was 33%, I said 36% as 7 years will not make it similar. I was giving a rough estimate with a limit. I said that a few times.

Other than that, no one knows what the hell you're talking about. Can you at least give what XYZWHRS mean?

As I said, 15-20 million will be made up, and there is no evidence to support or negate your claims

Make of it what you will, but here in Oz (BO that probably closest resembles North America), existing films plummeted in the wake of TDKR...

Most Popular Films For Period Weekend, July 19 - 22, 2012
WIR = Weeks In Release
No WIR Title $ %
Total $
1 1 THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (M), WARNER BROS [628/ $24,048] 15,102,045 N/A
15,102,045
2 3 TED (MA15+), UNIVERSAL [360/ $7,875] 2,834,923 -58%
28,655,023
3 4 ICE AGE 4: CONTINENTAL DRIFT (PG), FOX [362/ $3,220] 1,165,478 -71%
25,515,175
4 3 THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN (M), SONY PICTURES [451/ $2,064] 930,772 -75%
15,749,724
5 5 BRAVE (PG), WALT DISNEY [215/ $2,744] 590,011 -70%
15,606,693
6 5 SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN (M), UNIVERSAL [215/ $2,455] 527,774 -63%
19,042,828
7 2 HYSTERIA (M), EONE /HOPSCOTCH [79/ $3,092] 244,236 -24%
781,808
8 3 KATY PERRY: PART OF ME (PG), PARAMOUNT [180/ $1,009] 181,553 -71%
2,797,503
9 5 THE THREE STOOGES (PG), FOX [135/ $972] 131,236 -78%
3,417,594
10 5 A ROYAL AFFAIR (M), MADMAN [37/ $2,718] 100,583 -25%
1,077,743
11 2 NOT SUITABLE FOR CHILDREN (MA15+), ICON [42/ $2,042] 85,779 -42%
344,635
12 1 THE DOOR (M), RIALTO [23/ $3,000] 69,008 N/A
69,008
13 2 COCKTAIL (M), EROS AUSTRALIA [16/ $3,351] 53,608 -70%
299,045
14 13 THE WAY (PG), UMBRELLA ENTERTAINMENT [25/ $1,489] 37,222 3%
2,015,571
15 6 MARGARET (MA15+), FOX [8/ $4,134] 33,069 -29%
224,229
16 7 PROMETHEUS (M), FOX [27/ $1,219] 32,903 -80%
18,036,998
17 4 WHERE DO WE GO NOW? (M), EONE /HOPSCOTCH [23/ $1,377] 31,667 -38%
355,902
18 1 BOLSHOI BALLET: RAYMONDA (EX), SHARMILL [19/ $1,272] 24,163 N/A
24,163
19 6 TAKE THIS WALTZ (MA15+), EONE /HOPSCOTCH [20/ $1,100] 21,995 -39%
609,653
20 3 I AM ELEVEN (G), PROUD MOTHER PICTURES [7/ $2,875] 20,128 -17%
85,072

My my mdana brings feuds to this clan (sorry mdana I have to bring it out). Let's not pick on one specific person rather than pointing out (flaws) in their logic (without generalizing it, everyone has had their good and bad days predicting), which is what i feel is the best and safest way to go And please can someone tell me what X, Y, Z are and when were they used by say Nazgul and Gun and Gez?

Now as far as TDKR and holdovers are concerned everything dropped and there was an impact on overall BO due to the shooting. Shouldn't we be satisfied by the fact that everyone acknowledges that?

This is (hopefully) once in a lifetime experience even for BO and all of us, so why think too much into it. Let's discuss on WHAT and HOW can BO recover from this. I didn't hear anyone except maybe Excel and zingy tell what movies can do to recover from this. That would be productive way of predicting I believe.

I never thought that an 160M opening could seem that low to me.

Imagine $160M without the shooting...

Not sure where to post it but Warner Bros. is indeed donating a substantial amount to help the Aurora victims' families. Told you guys they would. Now go ahead and bitch about how you are mad because you think it makes it seem like they're admitting they're guilty. I on the other hand think it's a nice thing for them to do.

http://m.yahoo.com/w/ygo-frontpage/lp/s ... lang=en-us

I think its a good thing for WB to do.

I'm not denying it's happening. Never said that.

Um, no, I'm offended by the way he expressed his opinion. Like usual pretending to be the diplomat, when he's actually a condescending prick.

All I'm saying is that, it's the same thing. People are feeling guilty or scared for ridiculous reasons when you think about it. Does anyone remember Kony 2012? Everyone being armchair critics and whatnot. Bleeding hearts and etc. Should they have? No one questioned everyone gave into it. But what about the actual problems in the world? Syria's been hell for a year but everyone glazes over it.

Here, it's not so much "guilt" going to a movie but that feeling, to me, is the same. If you weren't in Century 16 in Aurora, you actually shouldn't feel anything about going to a cinema. I'm not denying that people do, I'm just calling it out as an unfathomable, illogical reaction considering the apathy they show toward young Mexicans in the drug trade and civilian casualties of war. No one seems to have any subconscious association there. Maybe it's because they're selfish and only give a shit about themselves, but again, these are madmen with guns obtained easily, you want to be scared of going to the cinema, be scared of walking out into your yard.

It's nice, but if Warner Bros. are donating, why aren't Disney, Sony, Fox, Universal or Paramount or Cinemark (or whatever the theatre chain is)?

There's no reason for WB to donate anything except good press.

Your media controls you it seems.

Its a nice gesture from WB but as BK said shouldn't it be coming out from every studio whose movies were playing that night or atleast from the ones playing their movies at that particular theater?

Personally I feel it plays really well for WB to donate but then there is also a guilt involved somewhere. Unlike many others I am fine with it because it is WB's DECISION and the way they handled this situation and there is absolutely nothing wrong in being emotional.

What country are you from?