Today's unofficial launch of Ice Age 4 marks the start of the 2012 summer animation season. In recent years, July/August has become well known for animation dumping grounds as studios use the summer holidays to try and rack up big grosses. This year, there will be a lot more choices than usual and parents will be feeling the pinch in order to appease the little ones this summer.

2012 Summer Animation Schedule

Release Date	Movie Title
July 12	Ice Age: Continental Drift
July 26	The Pirates! Band of Misfits One Piece 3D: Mugiwara Chase/Toriko 3D: Gourmet Adventure Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles - Animal Adventure
August 2	Madagascar: Europe's Most Wanted Tatsumi
August 9	Brave
August 16	ParaNorman Sammy's Adventures 2 The Pork of Music
August 23	After School Midnighters

With the exception of Ice Age 4, no other animated release this summer will have a 2 week break. The three animated releases on July 26 won't pose a huge threat as they all seem like fillers for the other 2 big ones: Madagascar 3 and Brave. Even Madagascar 3 won't have the animated crowd all to itself on opening weekend. Tatsumi, the Singaporean Japanese manga inspired film, will hope that the support from the film festivals will entice children to watch this. Brave returns in last year's Pixar slot, the 2nd weekend of August. While the Cars sequel disappointed, many are hoping for a return to form for the franchise as Pixar animations have done well in the past. The August 16 weekend will be interesting to see as you've got a spooky stop motion film, an underwater sequel and a successful local cartoon franchise. The animation bonanza will finally end on August 23 as a Japanese animated film hits theaters.

The big winner here will be Ice Age 4, no question. If you factor in the sneaks it is getting this week, it will have 3 weeks between itself and another animated release. Madagascar 3 is looking at a 2nd place finish and Brave should finish in the top 3.

	Saturday adm.				July 7
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	65,231	41,228	-36.8%	+61.7%
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	--	27,092	--	+75.3%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	--	17,430	--	+71.4%
4	Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.)	--	17,184	--
5	The Amazing Spider-Man 2D	13,532	14,033	+3.7%	+53.6%

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	36,860	20,468	-44.5%	+14.8%
2	Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.)	--	9,969	--	+58.7%
3	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	--	9,339	--	+10.4%
4	The Amazing Spider-Man 2D	8,232	6,128	-25.6%	+29.7%
5	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	--	5,474	--	+2.5%

	Weekend Projections			July 5
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	The Amazing Spider-Man	$2,000,000	-25.6%	$6,300,000
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	$600,000		$600,000
2	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	$600,000		$600,000
4	Ice Age: Continental Drift	$325,000		$325,000
5	Motorway	$85,000	-71.2%	$1,800,000

Very strong word of mouth for TASM has given it new life this weekend. It will try to become only the 4th movie in history to have a 2nd weekend of 2m or more. An admissions increase on Saturday for the 2D version and a solid drop for the 3D version is excellent news as Ice Age 4 will take over next weekend. Painted Skin 2 did quite well. It will beat its predecessor's OW. Good rebound for Abraham Lincoln after lower tracking and scheduling errors put this in just 26 theaters. Guess people really want to see action this summer. Ice Age 4 is off to a blistering start with over $300,000 made in previews. It will make close to what Cars 2 did with advanced screenings last summer. This great beginning is good news for next week when it will go ultra wide. Motorway is dying down but has performed great.

Hong Kong box office up 19% in first half of 2012
The success of local films helped achieve that gain. Let's see if it can keep it up in the 2nd half of 2012.

	Sunday adm.				July 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	72,485	39,519	-45.5%	-4.1%
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	--	26,933	--	-0.6%
3	Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.)	--	24,455	--	+42.3%
4	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	--	16,148	--	-6.0%
5	The Amazing Spider-Man 2D	16,904	13,581	-19.7%	-3.2%

All of the top 5 held better than I expected. Magnificent for Ice Age 4.

	Weekend adm.			Jul 5-8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	190,285	121,213	-36.3%
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	--	83,076	--
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	--	51,661	--
4	The Amazing Spider-Man 2D	42,338	42,268	-0.2%

	Weekend Estimates			July 5
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	The Amazing Spider-Man	$2,025,000	-24.6%	$6,325,000
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	$600,000		$600,000
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	$585,000		$585,000
4	Ice Age: Continental Drift	$400,000		$400,000
5	Motorway	$70,000	-76.3%	$1,785,000

In a remarkable turnaround, Amazing Spider-Man is looking to post an incredible 2nd weekend drop of just 25%! That drop is without any holidays although Thursday has been added onto this weekend's gross. Even with the Monday holiday included into the OW, TASM would have only fallen 42.6% in its 2nd weekend! Incredible number for TASM and 8m is locked.

Painted Skin 2 shocked almost everybody and beat out the original's OW. The crazy thing about PS2's OW is that the movie was shown in Putonghua (no Cantonese dub) and locals are known to shun these types of flicks. There was also no major HK star in it so marketing was very effective this time around.

The bungling of Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter's release didn't stop it from making a respectable sum this weekend. Originally scheduled for an ultra wide release, it was abandoned by the biggest theater chain due to some sort of conflict and was left to pick up its grosses from just a wide release. Vampire movies are not that popular in HK and while this won't lead the way for more vampire films soon, it performed better than every theater chain's expectations. Marketing was very good showcasing an action flick along with the minimal story of the US president. Maybe people wanted to see how the US president would kill those vampires.

Getting a head start on the rest of East/South East Asia, FOX decided to premiere Ice Age 4 in HK first with sneak previews this weekend. It was good enough to rank 4th for the weekend with an excellent $400,000 in previews. The reason for the early launch in HK is this: HK people love the Ice Age series. It is the 2nd biggest animated series to Kung Fu Panda. Back in 2009, Ice Age 3 broke OW animation records. It went on to gross 4.1m and was the 3rd biggest Asian territory behind China and South Korea. It was also the only Asian territory to open at #1 (China data not available) and spend 2 weeks on top. Ice Age 4's whopping 42% increase in admissions on Sunday for the Cantonese version is outstanding and suggests that viewers didn't know about the special screenings. I expect next weekend it will hit somewhere around 2m for the weekend.

While the rest of the top 5 had something positive going in their name, Motorway couldn't do the same. It will end with about 1.85-1.9m.

The top 4 combined for 3.6m and if these estimates hold, it will be the only weekend of the year where the top 4 combined for 3.5m or more without the #1 film being an opener.

	Monday adm.				July 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	63,411	15,723	-75.2%	-60.2%
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	--	12,248	--	-54.5%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	--	8,265	--	-48.8%
4	The Amazing Spider-Man 2D	17,372	6,152	-64.6%	-54.7%
5	Motorway	9,407	2,315	-75.4%	--

I thought it would be fascinating to look at Monday's admissions since last weekend was a holiday. Although the drops may not seem to be good at all for Amazing Spider-Man, if you compare last Thursday's admissions with Monday's, you will find something very intriguing...

	Last Thu.	Monday	% chg from Thu
The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	14,970	15,723	+5.0%
Painted Skin: The Resurrection	13,599	12,248	-9.9%
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	7,916	8,265	+4.4%
The Amazing Spider-Man 2D	5,517	6,152	+11.5%
Motorway	2,045	2,315	+13.2%

Both versions of Amazing Spider-Man increased the biggest in admissions out of all the top 5 films. Though the 3D version has remained steady, the 2D version is gaining traction amongst viewers. This is not exclusive to TASM as both Transformers 3 and The Avengers had similar performances happen in the 2nd week. Painted Skin 2's drop is not good news. It's possible getting kicked out almost everywhere could happen by its 3rd weekend if it does not stabilize. Abraham Lincoln might be having good word of mouth. It could get a single showtime when The Dark Knight Rises open if it manages to hold decent against Ice Age 4 opening.

Thursday schedules

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Eng.) - 15 showings	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D - 9 showings (▼ 19)
W.E. - 5 showings	The Raven - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Salmon Fishing in the Yemen - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Prometheus 3D - 1 showing (-)
	The Dictator - 2 showings (-)
	What to Expect When You're Expecting - 1 showing (-)
	Snow White and the Huntsman - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Men in Black 3 3D - 2 showings (▼ 3)
	The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 1 showing (-)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.) - 16 showings	Hotaru the Movie: It's Only A Little Light in My Life - 3 showings (▼ 6)	Men in Black 3 3D
Ice Age: Continental Drift (Can.) - 6 showings	Painted Skin: The Resurrection - 6 showings (▼ 12)	Prometheus
The Four - 5 showings	The Amazing Spider-Man - 5 showings (▼ 8)	The Dictator
	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D - 4 showings (▼ 9)
	Motorway - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	First Time - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.) - 7 showings	Late Autumn - 5 showings (▲ 0)	Prometheus
Ice Age: Continental Drift (Can.) - 4 showings	Painted Skin: The Resurrection - 6 showings (▼ 11)
Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Eng.) - 7 showings	The Amazing Spider-Man - 3 showings (▼ 9)
Ice Age: Continental Drift (Eng.) - 3 showings	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D - 5 showings (▼ 9)
The Four - 4 showings	Motorway - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	First Time - 1 showing (-)
	Prometheus 3D - 1 showing (-)
	The Dictator - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Men in Black 3 3D - 1 showing (-)

The One
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.) - 9 showings	Late Autumn - 6 showings (▼ 7)	Motorway
Ice Age: Continental Drift (Can.) - 3 showings	Painted Skin: The Resurrection - 7 showings (▼ 12)	First Time
Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Eng.) - 9 showings	The Amazing Spider-Man - 1 showing (▼ 4)	Prometheus 3D
The Four - 4 showings	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D - 8 showings (▼ 14)	Men in Black 3 3D
		The Dictator

Animation has been in a funk ever since Toy Story 3 broke out in 2010. There have been many disappointments along the way from top to bottom with high profile animation films like Kung Fu Panda 2 and Cars 2 and low key films like Rango. The closest thing we had to a good gross was Smurfs but it didn't do anything outstanding. Ice Age 4 hopes to rejuvenate animation and place in the top 5 of the year but it will be very tricky. It has The Dark Knight Rises on its 2nd weekend and then the week after that begins animation warfare with 3 animation pics vying for screens.

There is some good news though. Pre-sales are very strong at the moment and from those theater schedules, chances are this will mark a return for animation. When we compare this to Kung Fu Panda 2's opening Thursday schedules, all 4 theaters tracking KFP2 had given more showtimes to IA4. This should clear 2m on opening weekend.

The Four is another wuxia film meant as counterprogramming. While all the couples and families go out to watch IA4, this will hope to grab the action crowd but there are a lot more choices for the action crowd this time around than with Wu Xia last year. I don't see this doing very well.

W.E. is a filler for this week.

For holdovers, this will be a harsh week. Painted Skin 2's legs on opening week haven't looked good. It was the only film to post a drop on Monday from Thursday admissions. This is looking at a 60-65% fall this weekend. Abraham Lincoln might be seeing some decent word of mouth but it's not outdoing Spider-Man at the moment so this could fall about 55-60%. The Amazing Spider-Man is getting a showtimes cut to make room for Ice Age 4 but I think strong word of mouth will at least help it from dropping Transformers style. I see a 55% dip.

With a week to go, the year's most anticipated film is all set to come out. Tracking The Dark Knight Rises' OW pre-sales at the busiest theater in HK, it looks like we're about to get hit by something big.

Langham Place
	The Dark Knight Rises
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Jun. 19	9:15 AM	10	202	5.0%
	12:20 PM	27	202	13.4%
	3:25 PM	26	202	12.9%
	6:30 PM	67	202	33.2%
	9:35 PM	94	202	46.5%
	12:40 AM	8	202	4.0%
Total		232	1212	19.1%
Jun. 20	9:15 AM	2	202	1.0%
	12:20 PM	2	202	1.0%
	3:25 PM	11	202	5.4%
	6:30 PM	41	202	20.3%
	9:35 PM	116	202	57.4%
	12:40 AM	23	202	11.4%
Total		195	1212	16.1%
Jun. 21	9:15 AM	42	202	20.8%
	12:20 PM	34	202	16.8%
	3:25 PM	100	202	49.5%
	6:30 PM	89	202	44.1%
	9:35 PM	105	202	52.0%
	12:40 AM	2	202	1.0%
Total		372	1212	30.7%
Jun. 22	9:15 AM	58	202	28.7%
	12:20 PM	32	202	15.8%
	3:25 PM	80	202	39.6%
	6:30 PM	97	202	48.0%
	9:35 PM	17	202	8.4%
	12:40 AM	0	202	0.0%
Total		284	1212	23.4%
4-day total		1083	4848	22.3%

Those are amazing pre-sales. Better than the ones The Avengers had with still a full week of pre-selling to go. But it will have competition from Ice Age 4 and remaining leftovers from The Amazing Spider-Man, Painted Skin 2 and Abraham Lincoln.

As much as everyone wants Ice Age 4 to fold like a cheap tent, it tracking above 2m OW is not good news for The Dark Knight Rises. There's a possibility that TDKR sets the OW record for a 2D movie but it is looking pretty slim at the moment with Ice Age 4 doing well. TDKR's OW is looking like it will land in the 2.5-3m range but we'll get a clearer idea as we head into this weekend how The Dark Knight Rises and Ice Age 4 will affect each other next weekend.

Fuck you ice age,,, which is the current record for an animated film there in both OW and total gross

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		July 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.)	--	6,939	--
2	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	5,930	4,250	-28.3%
3	Ice Age: Continental Drift (Can.)	--	2,067	--
4	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	1,791	2,013	+12.4%
5	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	3,717	1,662	-55.3%

Those Ice Age admissions look a little low. Good news is that the 2D and 3D English versions of Ice Age have not been accounted for so I expect an opening day of more than 20,000 admissions total.

Some of these drops don't look right. Last Thursday's admissions must have been under-reported. Spider-Man should be down about 40-45% and Abraham Lincoln should be around a 50% drop. I will say this though...Amazing Spider-Man has been performing very well even though Ice Age 4 is taking away 3 screens. In a couple of places, it is actually beating Ice Age 4.

Toy Story 3.

such a relief to know it

								Jul 5 WKD
Rank	Film Title	Distributor	Weekend BO	Weeks	Engmnts	Eng. average	% change	B.O. Cume
1	Amazing Spider-Man, The	Sony Int'l	$1,587,346	2	44	$36,076	-41%	$4,274,218
2	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	Intercontinental	$540,381	1	31	$17,432		$540,381
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	Fox Int'l	$534,878	1	23	$23,256		$534,878
4	Motorway	Media Asia	$86,493	3	29	$2,983	-71%	$1,329,961
5	Hotaru The Movie: It's Only A Little Light In My Life	Panasia Films	$78,234	1	11	$7,112		$78,234
6	Late Autumn	Edko	$37,102	1	4	$9,275		$37,102
7	Silenced	UA Films/Emperor	$29,504	3	5	$5,901	-2%	$90,189
8	Dictator, The	Paramount Int'l	$22,747	5	19	$1,197	-68%	$1,111,856
9	Prometheus	Fox Int'l	$19,653	5	14	$1,404	-74%	$3,067,992
10	Men In Black 3	Sony Int'l	$15,137	7	16	$946	-72%	$5,600,869

The top 4 including Ice Age 4 were all overestimated due to extremely high Thursday actuals. Totals for the holdovers in the top 10 are also wrong. Here are the real totals up until Sunday.

1. The Amazing Spider-Man - $5,861,024
5. Motorway - $1,797,806
8. Silenced - $132,644
9. The Dictator - $1,351,670
10. Prometheus - $3,463,385
11. Men in Black 3 - 5,747,891

That's still a good hold for TASM although not as outstanding as before. 7.5m is still a lock.

Sometime earlier today, the movie admissions site that I get the numbers from changed the way they track movies. They no longer track each version's admissions. Instead, everything has been rolled into one. I do not know if this change is permanent or temporary.

For reference,

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		July 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift (3D Can.)	--	6,939	--
2	The Amazing Spider-Man 3D	5,930	4,250	-28.3%
3	Ice Age: Continental Drift (Can.)	--	2,067	--
4	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D	1,791	2,013	+12.4%
5	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	3,717	1,662	-55.3%

compare the table above with the one below.

	Thursday adm.			July 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	23,519	--
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	9,981	--
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	6,495	--
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	13,599	5,256	-61.4%
5	The Four	--	2,293	--

There's not really a big difference from pre-sales to final numbers which is worrisome because if you combine all versions of Ice Age 4, they should easily pass 35,000 admissions today. I also found out that 10 Broadway theaters are not being tracked for some reason and that could be the reason why it is showing such low pre-sales. If those theaters were added back in, Ice Age 4 would have hit 40,000 admissions at least. OD gross could be in the $250,000-$300,000 range.

I am not sure if this is the reason why Spider-Man had low admissions last week. I am also concerned that The Dark Knight Rises will be affected by this when it opens next week.

Amazing Spider-Man did pretty well. I am continually surprised by its staying power even with the huge screen loss. It didn't just lose showtimes but also the big theaters which in some cases represents a 60% loss of potential seats. Abraham Lincoln looks like it is doing well. It'll get to 1m before getting bitten by The Bat. Painted Skin 2 is the only film able to compare with last week's data because it is only showing 1 version. The removal of all the 3D and 2D versions of films allows The Four to move into the top 5. This site is getting more unreliable but I will still use it to get a ballpark for films.

		Thursday Actuals						July 12
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Screens	Days	Total
--	1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	$288,833	--	75	1	$669,179
1	2	The Amazing Spider-Man	$270,753	$122,170	-54.9%	67	14	$6,588,077
3	3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	$95,920	$55,407	-42.2%	29	8	$851,120
2	4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	$100,289	$44,973	-55.2%	38	8	$816,591
--	5	The Four	--	$23,757	--	27	1	$23,757
5	6	Hotaru the Movie: It's Only A Little Light in My Life	$13,784	$7,303	-47.0%	11	8	$131,514
8	7	Silenced	$4,870	$5,388	+10.6%	5	22	$154,723
6	8	Late Autumn	$7,149	$4,739	-33.7%	4	8	$63,178
4	9	Motorway	$17,189	$4,378	-74.5%	15	22	$1,851,919
--	10	W.E.	--	$3,843	--	3	1	$3,843

The Avengers	$12,457,040
Men in Black 3	$5,761,645
Prometheus	$3,475,603
The Dictator	$1,365,077
Snow White and the Huntsman	$1,306,173
Sadako 3D	$1,005,994

Huge OD for Ice Age 4. This is about on par with Kung Fu Panda 2. Last week's previews will be added into this week's total so 2m+ OW is assured. IA4 made about $380,000 in previews which was bigger than the 2 weeks of previews for Cars 2. With previews included, Ice Age 4 is looking at an opening of about 2.2m.

Good hold for TASM. If it can hold at 55% or better for the weekend, it would be another nice hold and will bring TASM's total close to SM3's final gross. It'll make between 7.1-7.3m by Sunday. If it doesn't make it on the weekend, it will eclipse SM3's take on Monday. Abraham Lincoln did well although I think its drops will get heavier this weekend. Not good for Painted Skin 2 as it started out slow last week and picked up a lot on the weekend. This will drop near 60% for the weekend. Horrible for The Four. OK for Hotaru but it looks like a run of the mill Japanese movie gross. Fantastic for Silenced. It has nearly quintupled its OW after great holds of 3% and 2% drops in its 2nd and 3rd weekends. It is on its way to 7x times its OW. What an amazing run. Nothing outstanding for Late Autumn. Motorway is pretty much on its way out and should stop around 1.88m. Bad for Madonna's W.E..

We're heading into the weekend so it's time for a Dark Knight Rises update.

Langham Place
	The Dark Knight Rises
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Jun. 19	9:15 AM	34	202	16.8%
	12:20 PM	42	202	20.8%
	3:25 PM	44	202	21.8%
	6:30 PM	98	202	48.5%
	9:35 PM	111	202	55.0%
	12:40 AM	16	202	7.9%
Total		345	1212	28.5%
Jun. 20	9:15 AM	4	202	2.0%
	12:20 PM	6	202	3.0%
	3:25 PM	15	202	7.4%
	6:30 PM	65	202	32.2%
	9:35 PM	128	202	63.4%
	12:40 AM	33	202	16.3%
Total		251	1212	20.7%
Jun. 21	9:15 AM	64	202	31.7%
	12:20 PM	50	202	24.8%
	3:25 PM	105	202	52.0%
	6:30 PM	115	202	56.9%
	9:35 PM	120	202	59.4%
	12:40 AM	2	202	1.0%
Total		456	1212	37.6%
Jun. 22	9:15 AM	65	202	32.2%
	12:20 PM	39	202	19.3%
	3:25 PM	96	202	47.5%
	6:30 PM	101	202	50.0%
	9:35 PM	17	202	8.4%
	12:40 AM	0	202	0.0%
Total		318	1212	26.2%
4-day total		1370	4848	28.3%

Pretty good. It's moved about 300 tickets since last check. It's still behind Harry Potter 7-2 pre-sales though. Harry Potter 7-2 was moving a lot quicker at this stage.

An update on Ice Age 4 this weekend. It has been performing well in the rural districts and has about a 6:1 lead over Spider-Man there. In the business district, TASM has been a lot more competitive but Ice Age 4 still holds a 3:1 advantage there. Everywhere else is about a 4:1 in favour of Ice Age 4.

How is it compared to the avengers at this stage?

Better than The Avengers.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			July 13
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	8,428	--	--
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	5,595	--	--
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	2,143	--	--
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	5,094	1,920	-62.3%	+15.5%
5	The Four	--	716	--	--

	Friday adm.				July 13
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	22,613	--	-3.9%
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	12,230	--	+22.5%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	7,187	--	+10.7%
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	15,452	6,248	-59.6%	+18.9%
5	The Four	--	2,466	--	+7.5%

Very good for Ice Age 4. This actually increased today even though the admissions site isn't showing it. Nice bump for The Amazing Spider-Man. OK for Abraham Lincoln. Weak for Painted Skin 2. Dreadful for The Four.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			July 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	15,146	--	+79.7%
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	8,273	--	+47.9%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	3,080	--	+43.7%
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	8,456	2,874	-66.0%	+49.7%
5	Hotaru the Movie: It's Only A Little Light in My Life	--	1,123	--	--

As expected, huge spike for Ice Age 4. TASM is still fighting. Bad for Abraham Lincoln and Painted Skin 2. They will not be able to keep up with last week's admissions.

With Ice Age 4 nearing $600,000 today and tomorrow, next week's screen allocation could look something like this:

Biggest screen - The Dark Knight Rises
2nd biggest - The Dark Knight Rises
3rd biggest - Ice Age: Continental Drift or The Dark Knight Rises
4th biggest - The Dark Knight Rises or Ice Age: Continental Drift
5th biggest - Ice Age: Continental Drift/The Amazing Spider-Man/The Dark Knight Rises
6th biggest - The Amazing Spider-Man/Painted Skin: The Resurrection/Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

The Dark Knight Rises is guaranteed at least 3 screens and a 4th is a possibility on theaters with 6 screens. Theaters will be reluctant to give all their screens away even with strong pre-sales for TDKR because Ice Age 4 will be coming off the 3rd or 4th best opening weekend of 2012 (with previews).

TDKR pre-sales update: 70% of regular theater locations are selling out faster than normal
20% of locations are doing OK/regular business
10% of locations are virtually empty

	Saturday adm.				July 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	36,797	--	+62.7%
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	19,954	--	+63.2%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	11,387	--	+58.4%
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	27,092	9,902	-63.5%	+58.5%
5	The Four	--	3,938	--	+59.7%

Big Saturday for Ice Age 4. It'll challenge $600,000 today. The Amazing Spider-Man is keeping in line with its drops so far this weekend. Good hold. Abraham Lincoln and Painted Skin 2 have weakened somewhat. Harsher drops will happen today and tomorrow. Better but still not great for The Four.

	Weekend Projections			July 12
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	$1,820,000		$2,200,000
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	$710,000	-55.3%	$7,220,000
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	$280,000	-47.7%	$1,075,000
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	$235,000	-56.5%	$1,005,000
5	The Four	$120,000		$120,000

A monstrous Saturday and Sunday will push Ice Age 4's OW upwards. The Amazing Spider-Man is right around that threshold of having a good hold. Actuals should confirm whether or not this passes Spider-Man 3 this weekend. It will pass 7.5m although 8m is a little harder. It depends on how far it drops next weekend. A $250,000 weekend or more makes 8m a good possibility. Anything less than $150,000 and TASM will finish with about 7.7 or 7.8m. Anywhere between $150,000-$250,000 is a toss-up. Decent hold for Vampire Hunter. 1.2-1.3m should be its end game. Disappointing for Painted Skin 2. It'll finish with about 1.2m. Terrible for The Four. It'll have a PTA of less than $5,000.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	22,333	--	+47.5%
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	8,812	--	+6.5%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	2,815	--	-8.6%
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	9,339	2,566	-72.5%	-10.7%
5	The Four	--	1,236	--	--

Wow. Massive 7k admissions increase with Sunday pre-sales for Ice Age 4. It'll cream Saturday's admissions and Sunday will be its biggest day of the weekend. Solid increase for The Amazing Spider-Man. Abraham Lincoln and Painted Skin look just about done. The Four continues to be a major disappointment.

Here are the theater counts for the next month.

July 19

The Dark Knight Rises - 40+ (Ultra Wide)
When Pigs Have Wings - < 10 (Limited)

July 26

Step Up Revolution - 30+ (Very Wide)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits - 30+ (Very Wide)
One Piece 3D + Toriko 3D - Around 10 (Limited/Semi-Wide)
Doraemon - Around 10 (Limited/Semi-Wide)
Beloved - < 10 (Limited)
Wu Dang - 10-20 (Semi-wide)

August 2

Total Recall - 30+ (Very Wide)
Madagascar: Europe's Most Wanted - 40+ (Ultra Wide)
Tatsumi - Around 10 (Limited/Semi-Wide)

August 9

Brave - 30-40 (Very Wide/Ultra Wide)
The Bourne Legacy - 30+ (Very Wide)
The Silent War - 20-30 (Wide)
Vulgaria - 20-30 (Wide)
The Chef - < 10 (Limited)

This will be interesting for TDKR. For the next 3 weekends, it will face a very wide release. I'm kind of surprised The Pirates! got such a wide release but it is tracking above the other 2 animation films it is facing.

	Sunday adm.				July 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	39,868	--	+8.3%
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	16,447	--	-17.6%
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	8,695	--	-23.6%
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	26,933	7,383	-72.6%	-25.4%
5	The Four	--	3,485	--	-11.5%

Extremely strong for Ice Age 4. Its drop was at least 20% better than any other film in the top 5. It was the only film to increase on Sunday and by a decent margin. Weaker Sunday for the bottom 4 films.

	Weekend adm.			Jul 12-15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	--	122,797	--
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	--	58,612	--
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	--	33,764	--
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	83,076	28,789	-65.3%
5	The Four	--	12,182	--

	Weekend Estimates			July 12
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	Ice Age: Continental Drift	$1,820,000		$2,200,000
2	The Amazing Spider-Man	$700,000	-55.9%	$7,210,000
3	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	$280,000	-47.7%	$1,075,000
4	Painted Skin: The Resurrection	$220,000	-59.3%	$980,000
5	The Four	$120,000		$120,000

Ice Age dominated the box office on the weekend which allowed it to open up a huge lead over The Amazing Spider-Man and the rest of the field. Not much change from projections except a slight adjustment down for Amazing Spider-Man and Painted Skin 2.

Continuing with our TDKR watch...

Langham Place
	The Dark Knight Rises
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Jun. 19	9:15 AM	58	202	28.7%
	12:20 PM	55	202	27.2%
	3:25 PM	61	202	30.2%
	6:30 PM	108	202	53.5%
	9:35 PM	124	202	61.4%
	12:40 AM	34	202	16.8%
Total		440	1212	36.3%
Jun. 20	9:15 AM	12	202	5.9%
	12:20 PM	11	202	5.4%
	3:25 PM	27	202	13.4%
	6:30 PM	82	202	40.6%
	9:35 PM	135	202	66.8%
	12:40 AM	39	202	19.3%
Total		306	1212	25.2%
Jun. 21	9:15 AM	81	202	40.1%
	12:20 PM	60	202	29.7%
	3:25 PM	105	202	52.0%
	6:30 PM	120	202	59.4%
	9:35 PM	126	202	62.4%
	12:40 AM	10	202	5.0%
Total		502	1212	41.4%
Jun. 22	9:15 AM	82	202	40.6%
	12:20 PM	58	202	28.7%
	3:25 PM	110	202	54.5%
	6:30 PM	115	202	56.9%
	9:35 PM	39	202	19.3%
	12:40 AM	0	202	0.0%
Total		404	1212	33.3%
4-day total		1652	4848	34.1%

TDKR saw a big increase in admissions for OD and Sunday (almost 100 admissions increase from last update). The biggest surprise for me with TDKR is the strong pre-selling for midnights. WB could have gotten away with Wednesday midnights given these types of midnight numbers so far.

Some total actuals:

2. The Amazing Spider-Man - $7,275,738
3. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - $1,133,328
4. Painted Skin: The Resurrection - $1,017,288

So TASM passed Spider-Man 3 this weekend. 7.5m should be crossed by Wednesday.