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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Sunday drops seem a bit harsh its a Holiday here in Canada.
_________________The Dark Prince
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:00 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Weekend Estimates
I think Magic Mike is overestimated by at least 1M. A 26% drop on Sunday for this kind of film would be fantastic. I'm thinking 35%.
Madea also might be estimated a bit too high, though comparisons are tough because this is the first summer movie of the series.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:04 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Plus, Tyler Perry fans are busy on Sundays.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:07 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21647 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Brave is lucky it has 4th of July padding this next week, I doubt it would have made it to 200 million without it.
great weekend overall.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:08 pm |
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Animosity Reigns
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:41 pm Posts: 1777 Location: The Dirty South
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Re: Weekend Estimates
SolC9 wrote: I think Magic Mike is overestimated by at least 1M. A 26% drop on Sunday for this kind of film would be fantastic. I'm thinking 35%.
Madea also might be estimated a bit too high, though comparisons are tough because this is the first summer movie of the series. Sunday drop wont be as high as normal since many people are taking this entire week off for vacations with the 4h in the middle of the week, or Mon-Wed or Wed- Fri off
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:09 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Thegun wrote: Brave is lucky it has 4th of July padding this next week, I doubt it would have made it to 200 million without it.
great weekend overall. Yes, lucky. I'm sure Disney/Pixar had no idea they were going to have July 4th to make more money.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:10 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Weekend Estimates
David wrote: Plus, Tyler Perry fans are busy on Sundays. I can only assume this is a black "joke".
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:11 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Chippy wrote: David wrote: Plus, Tyler Perry fans are busy on Sundays. I can only assume this is a black "joke". It's a "his movies always have overt religious themes" reference.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:11 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Weekend Estimates
I don't see any problem with Brave's drop. Wall-E had July 4th on its second weekend and still dropped 48.5% and still ended up with 3.55 multiplier.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:27 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Weekend Estimates
This is the Sunday drops in 2007 (the last time we had July 4th on Wednesday): http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -01&p=.htm. So the estimates look reasonable to me.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:33 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm Posts: 3004
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Re: Weekend Estimates
To paraphrase, Jeff Foxworthy "You might be an idiot it you write".... Thegun wrote: Brave is lucky it has 4th of July padding this next week, I doubt it would have made it to 200 million without it.
great weekend overall. It's $4m ahead of Wall-E and Wall-E already had its 7/4 boost, and Brave has not. It had to deal with approx. $120m from openers its 2nd weekend while Wall-E only had $62.6m from Hancock. It will likely be $9-10m ahead of Wall-E heading into next weekend and will likely fall less than 40%. Pixar movies that make $33-34m are never able to double their second weekend total. I mean a movie like Cars 2 which "only" dropped 60.4% its second weekend for $26.2m was only able to make another $69m after its second weekend and July 4th. So, yes only the 4th of July is keeping this film from sub $200m.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:34 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Weekend Estimates
David wrote: Magic Mike wrote: Oh, and Magic Mike better get to 100 Million. I'm hoping for strong weekdays like SATC had. Sadly, I'm not sure it will. Isn't a total around 85-90 million more realistic at this point? Films appealing to older females tend to have strong midweek performances. Sex and the City, with 34.4% initial Fri-to-Sat decline and two straight weekends of steep declines (63% and 54%), still managed a 2.67 IM. With us deeper into the summer and holiday week coming up, I don't really see Magic Mike doing worse than that. Still looking at $110-115m total IMO.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:41 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm Posts: 3004
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Gun-I don't think you are an idiot, I just wanted to type that sentence.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:42 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm Posts: 12333
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Hunger Games passes Spider-Man for #12 all-time. What a great run.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 2:33 pm |
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Brian
Ocarina of Time
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:21 pm Posts: 7951 Location: Hyrule
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Re: Weekend Estimates
David wrote: BMP is hungry for a sammich. sure, prepare me one please
_________________ Most Anticipated 2023
1. Super Mario Bros Movie 2. Rebel Moon 3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1 4. Oppenheimer 5. The Flash 6. Elemental 7. Aquaman 2 8. Dune Part 2 9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 10. Blue Beetle
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:01 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25020 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Magnus wrote: Hunger Games drops from the 2nd weekend of May have been fantastic.
And yet it still will only get a 2.65 multiplier overall. Indeed, that 2nd wknd drop
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:02 pm |
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Brian
Ocarina of Time
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:21 pm Posts: 7951 Location: Hyrule
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Brave is locked to beat Cars 2 in admissions, and A Bug's Life, Toy Story, Ratatouille and maybe Wall-E in total gross, so it has performed better than average, however
Pixar box office glory days will be back next year
_________________ Most Anticipated 2023
1. Super Mario Bros Movie 2. Rebel Moon 3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1 4. Oppenheimer 5. The Flash 6. Elemental 7. Aquaman 2 8. Dune Part 2 9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 10. Blue Beetle
Last edited by Brian on Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:07 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25020 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Weekend Estimates
I don't know why I was so surprised by MM's Saturday drop Outstanding wknd all the same, hopefully it can find a way over 40m.
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:12 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Very nice for Moonrise, the rest of it's run will be interesting.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:14 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Weekend Estimates
MM was going to fall big...
Always happens with this crazy hyped movies that appeal to a certain demo
_________________The Dark Prince
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:19 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am Posts: 6245
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Mannyisthebest wrote: Sunday drops seem a bit harsh its a Holiday here in Canada. How many goddamn holidays are there in Canada? I feel like I see this post every other week.
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:26 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25020 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Michael A wrote: Mannyisthebest wrote: Sunday drops seem a bit harsh its a Holiday here in Canada. How many goddamn holidays are there in Canada? I feel like I see this post every other week. Indeed
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:46 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Weekend Estimates
I'm wondering...is this the first time with four movies making $25+ million on a weekend?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:32 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Weekend Estimates
"How many goddamn holidays are there in Canada? I feel like I see this post every other week."
Lol Today is Canada Day...
Last Holiday was in the 2nd last weekend of May.
If you think we have to many Holidays look at the Europeans lol
_________________The Dark Prince
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:39 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Weekend Estimates
Also the only of the Top 50 biggest weekeds on which the Top 2 were R-rated movies. Original R-rated movies no less...
I am in the midst of my weekend write-up and it shapes up to be epic-sized as well. At over 1,100 words and I am just finished with Ted...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:38 pm |
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