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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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 Re: June 15-17 Predictions Clayton wrote: Libs wrote: Clayton wrote: Can someone please explain to me how this makes sense? From BO.com:
"Fandango reports that RoA accounts for 2% of daily sales—not bad considering the impact of TDKR."
He then goes on to predict 30.5M for RoA and 28M for That's My Boy. How can 2% be "not bad?" The only way the number could be worse is if it were 1% or NONE (which is where That's My Boy apparently stands). Doesn't this spell disaster for both films, even with TDKR dominating? Moreover, isn't the fact that many people are buying TDKR tix going to make them think twice about buying another ticket so soon after for one of this weekend's films? The movies don't even open for two more days. I'm aware. Normally films that are going to open over 20M have made more of a dent in the percentages by this point, though. That's not necessarily true.
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| Fri Jun 15, 2012 2:19 am |
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The Turk
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:46 pm
Posts: 80
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions My Predictions for this weekend:
1. MADAGASCAR 3 - 34.67M (-42.5%)
2. ROCK OF AGES - 24.64M (NEW)
3. THAT'S MY BOY - 22.09M (NEW)
4. PROMETHEUS - 20.93M (-59.0%)
5. SNOW WHITE & THE HUNTSMAN - 12.35M (-46.6%)
6. MIB 3 - 8.25M (-40.6%)
7. THE AVENGERS - 7.32M (-34.9%)
8. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL - 2.45M (-25.0%)
9. MOONRISE KINGDOM - 1.57M (+0.7%)
10. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU'RE EXPECTING - 1.53M (-45.2%)
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| Fri Jun 15, 2012 6:40 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions I'm torn between falling in line with the 20-25 or even 30 million predictions for Rock of Ages and staying with my gut-feeling low prediction of around 13. Tough.
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:29 am |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
Posts: 6665
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions David wrote: I'm torn between falling in line with the 20-25 or even 30 million predictions for Rock of Ages and staying with my gut-feeling low prediction of around 13. Tough. 13 is too low, considering how wide it goes. It actually gets better screen allocation than TMB does in my area. If screen count is something to go by, TMB should do better than The Three Stooges but below The Dictator's five-day OW. RoA should do somewhere between $23 mil and $27 mil.
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| Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:23 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions Now he tells me.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:39 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions Yeah, a couple weeks ago I was predicting between 14-15 Million for Rock of Ages. But with the huge theater count I just don't see that happening. I'm still not predicting it to crack 20 Million though. I just can't see interest being THAT high.
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| Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:52 pm |
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Clayton
Hatchling
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 3:59 pm
Posts: 13
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions Magic Mike wrote: Clayton wrote: Libs wrote: Clayton wrote: Can someone please explain to me how this makes sense? From BO.com:
"Fandango reports that RoA accounts for 2% of daily sales—not bad considering the impact of TDKR."
He then goes on to predict 30.5M for RoA and 28M for That's My Boy. How can 2% be "not bad?" The only way the number could be worse is if it were 1% or NONE (which is where That's My Boy apparently stands). Doesn't this spell disaster for both films, even with TDKR dominating? Moreover, isn't the fact that many people are buying TDKR tix going to make them think twice about buying another ticket so soon after for one of this weekend's films? The movies don't even open for two more days. I'm aware. Normally films that are going to open over 20M have made more of a dent in the percentages by this point, though. That's not necessarily true. Well, in these two films' case, it appears it was true. Finke says 18-21 for RoA, 12-15 for TMB. Atrocious.
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| Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:22 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900
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Re: June 15-17 Predictions Clayton, your predictions were closer than nearly every derby game player's projections. Good job! 
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| Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:13 pm |
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