2 Taylor Kitsch films released on the same weekend?,,, , it'll be interesting to see which one gross the most

March 31 - April 1, 2012
Weekend Forecast

01 (01) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) Week 5
02 (02) We Were There: Part I (Asmik Ace/Toho) Week 3
03 (03) Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) Week 4
04 (NEW) Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros.) Week 1
05 (05) Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friend of the Future (TOEI) Week 3
06 (04) Ultraman Saga (Shochiku) Week 2
07 (06) Puss in Boots (Paramount) Week 3
08 (07) Liar Game: Reborn (Toho) Week 5
09 (08) The Iron Lady (Gaga) Week 3
10 (NEW) The Help (Walt Disney) Week 1

Doraemon 32 is going to claim it's fifth consecutive week in first and come near ¥3 billion ($35 million+) with the boost from Spring Break this week. Only one other Doraemon film, the 30th Film Anniversary 2010 release, has spent five-consecutive weeks in first.

We Were There: Part I crossed the ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) milestone earlier in the week and will close in on ¥1.5 billion (almost $20 million) this weekend. Part II comes out in three weeks.

Sherlock Holmes 2 will exceed ¥1.5 billion ($20 million+) after four weeks in release.

Journey 2 should be good for a ¥125-150 million ($1.5-1.75 million) debut. The original grossed ¥122 million on opening weekend.

The tenth spot is wide open, but The Help will have the widest release among the smaller openers and is most likely to chart with close to ¥50 million ($600,000+).

March 31-April 1
Weekend Estimates
(based on the Usual Locations)

01 (01) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥340,550,000 ($4.1 million), +39.7%, Week 5
02 (02) We Were There: Part I (Asmik Ace/Toho) ¥236,500,000 ($2.9 million), +10.0%, Week 3
03 (03) Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥189,750,000 ($2.3 million), +14.1%, Week 4
04 (06) Puss in Boots (Paramount) ¥173,240,000 ($2.1 million), +42.2%, Week 3
05 (NEW) Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros.) ¥151,500,000 ($1.8 million), 0, Week 1
06 (05) Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friend of the Future (TOEI) ¥126,200,000 ($1.55 million), -0.1%, Week 3
07 (07) Liar Game: Reborn (Toho) ¥121,800,000 ($1.5 million), +5.4%, Week 5
08 (04) Ultraman Saga (Shochiku) ¥99,100,000 ($1.3 million), -31.2%, Week 2
09 (08) The Iron Lady (Gaga) ¥87,300,000 ($1.1 million), -2.8%, Week 3
10 (NEW) The Help (Walt Disney) ¥85,600,000 ($1 million), 0, Week 1

Very strong weekend. Family/Kids movies received the biggest gains thanks to Spring Break.

Drive looks to debut with ¥60-65 million ($750/800,000).

Great for Sherlock 2! It's going to surpass the first one

It's possible (though very likely in USD), but everything will begin to decline quickly now that Spring Break is over. And drops next weekend will be in the 45/55% range across the board.

If Sherlock Holmes 2 doesn't pass the original, it's performance has still been really good.

I made a mistake reporting Journey 2's weekend estimate above. J. Edgar was used as the comparison, and I read it performed 102% better opening weekend when in fact it was only 2%. Pretty poor start. I'm putting together the Weekday and Weekend Rankings right now.

Weekday Ranking [March 26-30]

-Doraemon and Puss in Boots surge thanks to Spring Break (both increased over 300% on Wednesday).

Weekend Ranking [March 31-April 1]

-Doraemon makes it five consecutive weeks on top and becomes the third film this year to exceed 2.5 million admissions.
-Puss in Boots climbs 3 spots. I have to check to be sure, but it might be on track to beat Shrek 4.
-Poor debut for Journey 2.

Titanic (3D) is expected to open in 1st this weekend with early predictions in the ¥300-350 million range ($4/5 million). Also, Yahoo revealed earlier today it was opening in 439 theaters, so that gives it potentially 500+ screens.

At it's disadvantage... re-releases have always struggled in Japan, almost never making the Top 10 on opening weekend, and I can't find a single re-release ever reaching even $10 million.

Star Wars Episode I debuting in 8th place to a little over ¥100 million ($1.5 million) a few weeks ago made it the most successful re-release in recent memory, and that still wasn't that impressive. Disney's Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King didn't make the Top 10, and Avatar only ranked 12th when it was re-released.

The original release of Titanic unseated Princess Mononoke to become biggest film in Japan grossing ¥26.2 billion ($202 million) on 16.83 million admissions (third most attended film ever) until 2001 when Spirited Away overtook it. So given it's past success, it's not that surprising that Titanic (3D) is shaping up easily become the biggest re-release of the past 20, 30 years, or perhaps ever if re-releases before the 80's are noted in news articles next week.

Puss in Boots actually did solid numbers in Japan for a DreamWorks movie.

Yes, it's been performing very well and will easily cross ¥1 billion and Shrek 4 (¥1.00 billion). It'll also beat recent DW films like How to Train Your Dragon (less than ¥1 billion), Kung Fu Panda 2 (¥1.08 billion), Madagascar 2 (¥1.02 billion), and Monsters Vs. Aliens (less than ¥1 billion).

Puss in Boots's third weekend was ¥142,554,000 ($1.74 million) on 113,683 admissions for a 3 week cume of ¥864,893,950 ($10.7 million) with 652,097 admissions.

As of 04/01:

Top Grossing Films (2012)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥5.40 / $70.80 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount
02 :: ¥3.34 / $42.56 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.63 :: TE :: Toho
03 :: ¥3.08 / $40.34 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.31 :: TE :: Toho
04 :: ¥2.88 / $35.13 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 2.62 :: 30 :: Toho
05 :: ¥1.86 / $23.34 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.49 :: 30 :: Toho
06 :: ¥1.76 / $22.79 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.36 :: 45 :: FOX
07 :: ¥1.69 / $22.24 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.31 :: TE :: Shochiku
08 :: ¥1.68 / $21.73 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.34 :: TE :: Toho
09 :: ¥1.62 / $20.77 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.29 :: 24 :: Warner Bros.
10 :: ¥1.54 / $19.81 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 1.27 :: 16 :: Asmik Ace/Toho
11 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI
12 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho

Doraemon 32 adds over 800 million yen ($10 million) to it's total over the past 7 days.
Liar Game 2 moves up 3 spots on track for 2 billion yen.
Sherlock Holmes 2 and We Were There: Part I enter the chart with 1.5 billion yen+, both of them are also on track for 2 billion yen.



Top Opening Weekends (2012)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho
02 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount
03 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho
04 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho
05 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI
06 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku
07 :: ¥314.70 / $3.91 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho
08 :: ¥303.35 / $3.72 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.
09 :: ¥295.31 / $3.65 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Toho/Asmik Ace
10 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX
11 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho
12 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony

New Entry
TE (Tracking Ends)
OE (Official Estimate)

M:I-4's official final estimate is 5.40 billion yen.

http://www.bunkatsushin.com/varieties/a ... =2&id=1627

That's a 1% increase over its final tracking total.

The 2012 Chart Update above has been updated.

[Sadako 3D Trailer]


It's a continuation of the previous two Ring movies and has been updated to feature the internet in the plot this time around.

The film is directed by Tsutomu Hanabusa (High School Debut, Handsome Suit), and stars Satomi Ishihara (Zatoichi the Last, The Incite Mill - 7 Day Death Game), Koji Seto (Runway Beat, Various Kamen Rider films), and Yusuke Yamamoto (Rookies, Paradise Kiss).

It's to be released May 12th by Kadakowa Pictures.

Do you have yearly rankings of all the movies hitting 1b on your website?

No, but that's a great idea, thanks. I can include every year since 1980, so I'll definitely work on that over the next few days (finally have a short break). I could also do an opening weekend chart later on, too, that goes back to 1998.

And I'm also in the process of updating the 2012 Charts I post in this thread each week to include every film reaching 1 billion. No reason to limit it to 12 films when the rankings at the end of the year will include every 1 billion+ film. I'll have that posted soon, as well as this weekend's forecast.

2012 Box Office Charts
As of 04/01:

Top Grossing Films (¥1 billion+)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥5.40 / $70.80 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount
02 :: ¥3.34 / $42.56 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.63 :: TE :: Toho
03 :: ¥3.08 / $40.34 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.31 :: TE :: Toho
04 :: ¥2.88 / $35.13 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 2.62 :: 30 :: Toho
05 :: ¥1.86 / $23.34 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.49 :: 30 :: Toho
06 :: ¥1.76 / $22.79 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.36 :: 45 :: FOX
07 :: ¥1.69 / $22.24 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.31 :: TE :: Shochiku
08 :: ¥1.68 / $21.73 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.34 :: TE :: Toho
09 :: ¥1.62 / $20.77 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.29 :: 24 :: Warner Bros.
10 :: ¥1.54 / $19.81 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 1.27 :: 16 :: Asmik Ace/Toho
11 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI
12 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho
13 :: ¥1.43 / $18.72 :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI
14 :: ¥1.42 / $18.60 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.11 :: TE :: Walt Disney
15 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho
16 :: ¥1.28 / $15.66 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: 52 :: Sony
17 :: ¥1.18 / $15.29 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho
18 :: ¥1.12 / $14.58 :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '10 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho
19 :: ¥1.09 / $14.13 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa

-KEY-
New Entry
Indicates a film still in release or being tracked.
Days in Release: TE (Tracking Ends, Awaiting Estimate/Actual) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)


Top Opening Weekends (¥200 million+)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho
02 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount
03 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho
04 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho
05 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI
06 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku
07 :: ¥314.70 / $3.91 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho
08 :: ¥303.35 / $3.72 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.
09 :: ¥295.31 / $3.65 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Toho/Asmik Ace
10 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX
11 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho
12 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony
13 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney
14 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa
15 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho

Great, thanks!

April 7-8
Weekend Forecast

1 (NEW) Titanic (3D) (FOX) Week 1
2 (NEW) SPEC: The Movie (Toho) Week 1
3 (1) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) Week 6
4 (2) We Were There: Part I (Asmik Ace/Toho) Week 4
5 (NEW) The Artist (Gaga) Week 1
6 (3) Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) Week 5
7 (4) Puss in Boots (Paramount) Week 4
8 (5) Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future (TOEI) Week 4
9 (6) Liar Game: Reborn (Toho) Week 6
10 (9) The Iron Lady (Gaga) Week 4

This weekend may see one film rank 1st in gross, another in admissions. Titanic 3D is expected to gross about ¥250-300 million ($3-3.5 million). That would be more than every re-release combined in the past...several years, more than Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Avatar, and Star Wars EP1 anyway, combining for under ¥200 million. And SPEC around ¥200-250 million ($2.5-3 million). When you factor in 3D, both would be close in admissions. Expectations for SPEC are much lower than they were at the beginning of the year, but so were the expectations for Liar Game: Reborn last month, so I'm not going to underestimate it.

Most Oscar films are distributed by the independent Gaga, and usually open around the ¥100 million ($1.2 million) mark. Best Picture winners, unsurprisingly, tend to perform the best and having won Best Picture and several other awards, The Artist should do decent numbers.

Last year, The King's Speech, also released by Gaga, became the highest grossing Best Picture Winner in Japan since The Return of the King.

The weekend after Spring Break is tough on holdovers, so expect drops in the 40/50% range (kid/family films on the higher end of that).

Go Titanic!

Most of Titanic's business will come from the weekdays if it still attracts a large female audience (60%+).

In Japan, weekdays make up to 50% of most film's totals (year-round), but for films targeting females, weekdays can make up 60% or more. And it's all to do with Ladies Day. Every Wednesday, all females get a 50% discount at all major cinemas. Wednesday can sometimes be bigger than Saturday or Sunday for certain films, too.

There are currently two films in the Top 10 attracting females (but not over 60%), We Were There: Part I and The Iron Lady. Weekdays have made up 56.4% of We Were There's total and 57.9% for The Iron Lady so far.

Titanic 3D is only getting two showings at many locations, like in Miyoshi, in the Hiroshima Prefecture. This area is usually the first to list their showings, but if Titanic only gets a couple showings a day everywhere else as well, admissions will be pretty low even if most of the seats are filled. I know it's the near 4-hour running time, but I don't recall any film getting so few showings opening weekend.

It happened here in Hong Kong. Titanic only got 3 showings its opening day (and it was a holiday too!). It has since forced the hand of theater chains by doing well and it's been given full-day showtimes at most locations on the weekend.

What is the average number of screens at a theater in Japan? Are they multiplexes or theaters located in shopping malls?

The first question is tricky to answer because Toho has a monopoly over Cinema in Japan.

At the end of 2011, there were a total of 2,774 Theaters and 3,339 Screens. Toho operated 587 of those theaters, and 799 of those screens. And that doesn't include any theaters or screens Toho's subsidiary company, Toho-Towa (handles the distribution of some high profile, usually Hollywood, imported releases), control.

So... there are many Toho Cinemas that have as many as 10 screens vs 1 or 2 screens of other major cinema chains like Warner Mycal Cinemas or Sunshine Cinemas. It's quite an extreme, very, very few in the middle, and why you see multiple Toho releases in the Top 10 every week ) and dominating the Box Office. I don't think Toho ever goes a week without a film in the Top 10, and maybe the Top 5.

Out of the Top 20 Japanese films of 2011, 18 were distributed by Toho. And out of the all 54 films (including Hollywood releases) of 2011 that grossed 1 billion yen or more, 24 were distributed by Toho. Toho's Market Share has been over 30%, their films grossing $700-900 million each year, for the past 5/6 years.

And there are both multiplexes and theaters (mostly operated by Toho) in shopping malls in the more populated prefectures like Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Aichi.

Interesting, thanks. So is Titanic getting a big screen with its 2 showtimes at those multiplexes?

Unfortunately no.

One theater in Miyoshi has Titanic playing twice today on the 110 seat screen vs the 519 seat screen for SPEC playing five times. Even The Artist is playing on a screen with 228 seats. Doraemon, in it's sixth week, is playing on the 332 seat screen.

Shinjuku Piccadilly in Tokyo is even worse. Titanic has ONE showing today in a 157 seater. SPEC has five showings in a 301 seater.

I definitely wasn't counting on Titanic getting the smaller screens with one or two showtimes. There's no way it can reach No.1 this weekend even if it sold out.