What film do you think will break the 50mill in one day barrier?

The only one i think that has a shot is the last star wars film.It depends if it opens in 4,000 theatres.

Pootie Tang 2

Probably a kid-oriented movie, like Shrek 2. Toy Story 3, maybe? If it ever is made.

Star Wars has a shot if it gets massively hyped up.

No way. The fanchise has been in decline, and it doesn't open on a friday.

I would say Batman has an outside chance. 50m Friday would probably be a weekend of 115m-120m. Possible IMO. Superman could do it too. However, I would say the best chance is the POTC sequel. Ifthat doesn't do it (which I doubt) I would give it to Spiderman 3, which will once again open on a Friday.

Friday will be hard. I'd think a kid movie on a Saturday during the early summer. Maybe Spider-Man 3 or Shrek 3.

I forgot about spidey 3.

I have no doubt in my mind that if Shrek 2 opened on a friday it would have done it on Friday or Sat.

Hmmm.

In the near future?

I think in the pre-Thanksgiving season, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire may be able to do $40 million + (considering that part three made $38 million that day and was the biggest of the three openers).

I think the release of the sixth book sometime during the summer will keep the Potter fever running high in 2005.

But $50 million? I dunno. I'm not thinking anything in 2005 will be able to do it...

Franchise in decline. The 5th one made over 310 mil.

Then HP must be an utter failure since the 3rd one made 249.

POTC sequel will be lucky to get 200 mil. total. Superman has no shot at all. Spiderman on the otherhand is a franchise in decline. Got his nuts crushed by an Ogre

5th one sold far fewer tickets then any of the others. That's a decline. I'm not saying it's doing poorly, but, neither of the prequels have gotten anywhere near 50m opening day. No way they suddenly jump up that high.

@ POTC, you have got to be kidding me. It will get at least 350m. Spider-man dropped slightly from the last one. That drop wasn't nearly as great as AOTC's.

I agree, Revenge of the Sith will undoubtably do better than Attack of the Clones. I don't think I have to stretch for reasons beyond saying "the duel", "Darth Vader" and "Chewbacca".


This is, however, where you are insanely wrong. Pirates of the Caribbean has both insane commercial success and a weird cult following by almost every imaginable audience. Its success in the DVD market has been considerable and I would imagine, if anything, the audience has grown (including added attention because of the Oscars). There is absolutely no logical reason to think that it shouldn't approach the total of the origional.

Whether you like it or hate it. Same director, same cast, etc.

POTC was a fluke. They can't repeat that. It would like repeating the success of Forest Gump and Sixth Sense with sequels. Not going to happen.

Spiderman is "the least successful" franchise in the top 25. Just check the facts.

Star Wars in order of release

461
290 down 37%
309 up 7%
431 up 40%
310 down 28%

I am not saying EP3 will gross 50 mil. in one day. It is part of the "Most Successful movie Franchise" in history and doesn't have to prove itself to 2, 3 or the bottom feeders of top 25 like SM.

Sure whatever you say. It's no different the the many franchises that have had sequels outgross the original. Terminator, Lethal Weapon, Die Hard, The Matrix, Bourne, Rush Hour, Austin Powers, American Pie, Mummy, LOTR, etc. Great WOM is the key.

Comparing it to TSS or FG doesn't make any sense. Both of those films were constructed so as not to leave much room for a sequel. In the case of POTC, it can very easily be adapted for a sequel. In fact, as they were making the original, I'm willing to bet the potential for a franchise was on the minds of everyone involved.



What do you mean by this? What facts? To try to marginalize Spider-man as an unsuccessful franchise doesn't make much sense.



My main point is that ROTS wouldn't reach 50m opening day. In any case the past glory of SW at the BO is not there as it once was. It's not a small or unsuccessful franchise by any means, but others such as Spider-man, LOTR and Shrek (I would also argue POTC) have surpassed it. Not in terms of the history of the franchises. There SW is still number 1 of all time. But in terms of current popularity, yes, it has fallen.

Spider-Man - the least successful franchise?




That gave me a good laugh

Anyway...


Star Wars will DEFINITELY not make it. Lucas tends to release his babies in a smaller amount of theatres and the Wednesday release will prevent that anyway.


Spider-Man 3 is the only one that comes to my head right now. But to make $50 million on a Friday? Man, that is very unlikely.

That is a meaningless comment. All hugely successful phenominons are at least partial flukes.

The audience is still there for a sequel, as they are there for the next Star Wars and the next Spider-Man and The Hobbit and the next Harry Potter film.


A Forrest Gump sequel (there is a sequel to the novel, I think it is called Gump & Co.) at the right time, two or three years after the origional, would have been massively successful. The Sixth Sense was a one trick pony that revealed all it had in its last act.

Neither of these two comparisons make any sense when talking about Pirates of the Caribbean.


I'm not big on Spider-Man, I think the movies are awful, but this comment is absolutely ridiculous.


Sounds like sour grapes from a Star Wars fan. The position of Star Wars at the top of the "successful franchise" list is not what this topic is about.

If I read the question correctly, it doesn't say it has to gross 50M the opening day.

And as for $50m opener...next year some movie. If in 4000+ theaters, I would bet on Batman Begins.

i dont know about Batman Begins!

but illbet, spidey 3 or Shrek3 will do it!!

The Hobbit, if it is ever made that is.

It will be the last Harry Potter movie. That's a long time away...

ROTS could IMO.

KING KONG????!

maybe! :?

well thinking straigth if LOTR didnt do it i dont think this one has a chance, right or wrong??

Double post

Number Movie Gross Studio Cost Profit
1 Titanic 1845 923 240 683
2 ROTK 1119 559 144 415
6 JP 915 457 78 379
13 E.T. 793 396 20 376
17 EP4 775 388 20 368
5 EP1 925 462 130 332
4 TTT 926 463 139 324
3 HP1 977 488 165 323
7 Shrek 2 879 439 120 319
15 Lion King 784 392 75 317
10 Nemo 865 432 130 302
9 FOTR 871 436 143 293
8 HP2 877 438 150 288
12 ID4 817 409 130 279
20 Sixth Sens 673 336 75 261
19 Forrest Gu 677 339 80 259
24 Passion 610 305 55 250
11 Spider-Man 822 411 189 222
14 HP3 788 394 180 214
23 JP2 619 309 100 209
22 EP2 650 325 140 185
25 Men in Bla 589 295 120 175
18 Reloaded 739 369 200 169
21 POTC 654 327 180 147
16 SM2 782 391 250 141

Here are the top 25 WW grosses of all time. Taking 50% of the gross as studio take and deducting the cost, you get the profit for each movie.

SM 2 is the least profitable movie in the top 25. SM franchise is the least profitable franchise in the top25. Check the facts before you open your mouth.