nvm

Seriously, I don't see how Midnight in Paris can win Best Picture. I mean the only other thing it has a shot at winning is Best Original Screenplay and even that's not a lock. No techs, no acting for it and I don't really think it'll get Director. Crash was pretty much a lock for Editing and Screenplay all the way and The King's Speech had an assured Best Actor and a very likely Screenplay win...

Hmm, The Artist losing Director and Screenplay at the Globes shows that, while still the frontrunner, it is not the absolute powerhouse that, say, The Social Network was (ahem).

Agreed. And I'm still predicting Michel Hazanavicius to win Best Director.

Scorsese will get Director. I think this year the wealth will be quite well-spread. The Artist will end up winning Picture, Original Screenplay and 2-3 techs. Hugo will get Director. The Descendants will win Adapted Screenplay and Actor. We night even see a 2005-like year with no movie winning more than three Oscars.

Well, in the unlikely scenario of The Descendants winning SAG Ensemble, DGA and WGA, it should change your mind. But that won't happen, Payne isn't winning the DGA.

Ugh, I wish there was some way The Artist could lose. Almost every other frontrunner right now is better, as are countless other non-factors in the BP race (Shame, We Need To Talk About Kevin, etc.)

You've seen We Need To Talk About Kevin? Post your thoughts in the Everyone's A Critic forum. I want to see what you thought of it.

Yeah I saw it during its qualifying run in NY last month.

Midnight in Paris will get Original Screenplay I believe.

yo fuck the artist

The Artist's only vulnerability is its lackluster box office, which isn't going to pick up much. If that criticism does take hold, not that I necessarily think it will, that makes its real competition The Help...may God be with us all.

I think that if The Artist falters, The Descendants is going to be the one to take the prize. It's hit all the guilds it needs to, and is looking very good for one major win (Actor), and is in contention for another (Adapted Screenplay). Though if Woodley can't get nominated (Which is very likely at this point), it probably won't have the support. But I also don't really see The Help winning, mostly because there hasn't been much of any indication that there's passion for it outside of the acting. I know, Crash, blah blah blah, but that got in for Directing and won Screenplay and Editing. The Help will be lucky to get Directing and Editing nominations.

I have a pretty hard time ATM seeing anything but The Artist win, weak box office be damned.

Yeah I agree with John. If its not The Artist for BP then it will be The Descendants. Hugo will get BD.

The Artist's poor box office really doesn't matter; look at The Hurt Locker.

Plus, it's about Hollywood. Fuckers love idealizing themselves.

To be fair to The Hurt Locker, that was released in the summer before awards were part of the conversation. If it had been released later in the year I think it would have made twice as much, if not more.

No doubt, but that still didn't stop it from winning.

Final BP prediction: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, War Horse, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, My Week With Marilyn

BD: Haz, Scorsese, Allen, Spielberg, Fincher

It was also a current events war drama, the artist is a black and white silent film about the talkie revolution, hardly the same in terms of box office appeal.

I think The Artist is winning:

Picture
Actor
Cinematography
Score

That's it...

I expect Hugo to get:

Director
Art Direction
Visual Effects
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

Though it might randomly lose one of the two Sound awards.

Pfft, The Tree of Life and Hugo are terrific.

And no sweep for The Artist, now that it lost SAG Ensemble.

On the other hand, this was a pretty bad showing for The Descendants...

Hmm, so which film do you expect to win Editing then, Lecter? It's very rare for it to not go with one of the big winners of the night, let alone two films that would combine for 9 awards in your prediction.

Hugo isn't winning Visual Effects; Planet of the Apes most likely has that one.

Sorry, forgot about that. Hugo for Editing instead of Effects.

Why the crap would Artist lose Directing to a recent winner after winning the freaking DGA? It has Directing like, in the bag now. And with those wins Editng should also come easily. I'm prett sure Artist is going to do really well. I have itdown for six wins, but I could see as high as eight or even nine (art diection is the only really out of reach award I think, Hugo or Harry Potter will take it, no one else).

Also, the only time that a Best Picture nominee lost Visual Effects tona non-Picture nominee was Patton to Tora Tora Tora 41 years ago. And films nominated ONLY for Visual Effects rarely win, they need support elsewhere. Hugo isn't that flashy, and Apes is pretty impressive, but considering Hugo's overall haul I think it'll take any easy win it can.

Er, The Help was always expected to win Ensemble? The Artist i not an ensemble film, at all, and if there's a big ensemble film that's also an Oscar contender, it usually wins. Losing Enemble didn't stop English Patient or Hurt Locker from bringing in big hauls. That Dujardin could beat two BIG movies stars is enouh indication that the actors love The Artist and would be willing to go with a semi-sweep for it.