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 Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012) 
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
Magnus wrote:
It still did a lot better than expectations.

But still low. And it seems to be pretty awful. It'll be forgotten by next week.

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Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:08 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
Magnus wrote:
almost famous wrote:
Magnus wrote:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3351&p=.htm

BOM somehow comes off as negative towards Red Tails performance. Not surprised.


With 58m budget it still might have less than 50m total. With nearly zero overseas appeal.


It still did a lot better than expectations.

But this is only important in terms of the meaningless game of box office prognostication. At the end of the day any film has to be placed within the context of its budget, its P&A costs, its actual chance at profitability.

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Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:24 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
Random bit of trivia, Beauty and the Beast will become only the third traditional animated film ever to pass $200 m today, joining The Lion King and Aladdin.


Sat Jan 21, 2012 6:22 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
O wrote:
Random bit of trivia, Beauty and the Beast will become only the third traditional animated film ever to pass $200 m today, joining The Lion King and Aladdin.

When you use a word like "ever" you really should quote adjusted box office.

For example, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs at $865,460,000.


Sat Jan 21, 2012 7:27 pm
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The Thirteenth Floor
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
Jon wrote:
David wrote:
Does anyone remember the CinemaScores for The American, Hanna, Contagion, and/or Drive? For comparison's sake.

EDIT: Googled. The American, D-. Hanna, C+. Contagion, B-. Drive, C-.

So it's no surprise Haywire's CinemaScore is poor. Still, surprised it's not even in the C range. Audiences are seriously entirely immune to the visceral appeal of those no-frills, clear-eyed fight scenes?


The weird part about those scores is that all of them but The American actually had relatively decent legs, especially for those scores:

The American - 2.70
Hanna - 3.255
Contagion - 3.38
Drive - 3.085

I think part of the reason is that action movies usually aren't the kind of genre that call for "A+!" reactions unless it's a franchise movie or major star, and when it's the kind of movie that challenges some people's expectations those people score it low and drag the average down. That's my theory anyway.

And boxoffice.com's # for Red Tails - $6.025 million.


The demographics favor legs for those movies. I'd say the American's multiplier was pretty awful.


Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:46 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
I think that's a great number for Underworld. It might be assisted by the recent 4th or 5th movie trend by which time, I'm guessing, backlash and fanbase erosion have run their course. Still, nothing about Rise of the Lycans suggested it was retaining its popularity.

I'm not entirely surprised by Red Tails.

Very good for EL⁣ I don't think it could have done better. That's not even a PTA drop of 80% from its first weekend in 6 theaters.

The holdovers were crushed. I'm surprised Contraband held that well, especially by comparison.

B&B seems to be frontloaded along the lines of the ET re-release.

The Artist's PTA keeps sinking in expansion. Nothing else really could be expected though for a B&W silent movie. I kind of doubt it can gross much more by adding theaters. 30m looks pretty far away.


Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:01 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
David wrote:
OUCH, lol.

It's definitely an arty, unusual kind of action movie, but I was not expecting such a dire CinemaScore.

Great for the other three, though.


Why the discrepancy between RT and Cinemascore you think? This may be a new record?

Interestingly, Soderberg's The Informant similarly was loved by critics and disliked by audiences. I enjoyed the film but could see many reasons why others wouldn't

-main 'character' highly unrelateable
-1980's setting
-loads of talk about business and politics
-audiences maybe thought it was supposed to be a comedy

Haywire seems like a more straightforward crowdpleaser from the trailers. It must be either a different kind of film than it appears or the ending killed it like with Devil Inside.

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Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:06 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
David wrote:
Magnus wrote:
almost famous wrote:
Magnus wrote:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3351&p=.htm

BOM somehow comes off as negative towards Red Tails performance. Not surprised.


With 58m budget it still might have less than 50m total. With nearly zero overseas appeal.


It still did a lot better than expectations.

But this is only important in terms of the meaningless game of box office prognostication. At the end of the day any film has to be placed within the context of its budget, its P&A costs, its actual chance at profitability.

I suppose, but it should still be recognized that the film did better than it was expected to. Not based on random guesses but comparisions, situations, context, it's dumped in mid january, focuses on a notoriously unpopular area (aviation), and is really just a shot in the dark. That 58m budget is a huge mistake for this film and it is clearly a dump in early winter the studio expects to lose money on. The fact that it will make 35m+ in it's domestic run is far more than the studio had any right to expect from this project and with dvds, rentals, etc. it should get close to its money. Without major stars, a decent date, any spectacular or fresh effects, buzz, or anything this is a good opening and performance.

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You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

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Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:17 am
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
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Why the discrepancy between RT and Cinemascore you think? This may be a new record?

This can't be the only thing but it probably didn't help with what they did to her voice. Not just redubbing it because she was a bad actress which would be normal and expected, but from what I've read also digitally lowered it and changed the basic sound of her voice to something more cold and terse to 'fit the character'. If you listen to her in interviews she has a warm, charming voice but I don't think that is what audiences hear in this film. Disclaimer: I haven't had the chance to see it yet and am going by clips etc.

Also, critics tend to see movies in the vacuum of not having to pay for them but it can be annoying to moviegoers when you see a low-ish budget movie and it costs the same to get in as a 200m blockbuster. From the audience's point of view, they pay the same for this as they did for, say, Apes, and are getting a lot less in production value. You can get away with that if you're Woody Allen and basically selling the intangibles of acting and writing but this isn't that kind of film.

I expect it will not be a financial disappointment to the studio though. They packed it with international stars for a reason, this will play all over the world and as you guys know action movies sell well overseas.


Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:01 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
I seriously didn't notice the voice alteration. This isn't Christian Bale's Batman here. I didn't even know they changed her voice until after I saw the film.

And, honestly, let's face it, a lot of general-audience moviegoers are morons. They get annoyed when a movie in the assassin/car chase/spy vein tries to alter the recipe and come at the material in an unusual, more challenging way. Hence the low CinemaScore ratings for films such as The American, Hanna, Drive, Haywire, etc. Now you can argue the specific merit of any of these movies, but the trend is clear. "Arty" action = mainstream audience disgust, as a rule.

Wasn't Fight Club even fairly poorly received by audiences at first?

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Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:28 pm
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Post Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates (20 Jan 2012)
I'm sure most people still wouldn't like FC, but it's the biggest cult hit of the past couple decades.


Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:23 pm
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