I wouldn't even be surprised if it took 2nd place this weekend. Right now I'm predicting around $13m OW.

Wow, that is great for Red Tails. Also great to see underworld on there.

I think a $15M+ opening is definitely on the table for Red Tails. All the signs seem to be pointing towards some kind of breakout.

It probably will. Right now I have Contraband at #2 with 13.1 Million. Red Tails I have at 3 with 13 Million. These could easily switch places.

I feel pretty certain that Haywire is not going to do that badly.

Yeah Haywire seems to be the movie that should do well in walk-ins so tracking might prove wrong. I believe Haywire will defy tracking and do a little more, coming close to double digits.

"Coming close to double digits" is hardly impressive for an action movie with this level of pedigree. Sure, it's not going to do $300,000, but still.

Boxoffice predictions seem more in line
http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/lon ... ctions?w=1

Sounds low for Underworld, but about right for Red Tails. Could go even higher if it gets a respectable amount of walk-ins. The fact that it accounts for 20% of ticket sales already is pretty damn impressive.

Haywire has no big star for the female assassin. Gina Carano might be hot but I have never heard of her before this movie. The movie also seems too familiar to other movies.

I'd never heard of her either but am interested in the movie because it seems to be a quality action film. I think it could have opened respectably on a weekend with less competition. Maybe it could have opened the first weekend of January with The Devil Inside.

Well it seems too much like the Bourne movies, Hannah, and Salt. I think that feeling hurts it as well. I do agree that it was released on a bad weekend.

I'm feeling even more pessimistic regarding Haywire's prospects this morning. Between Underworld, Red Tails, Contraband, and the remaining December films (Mission, Holmes), I seriously don't see it drawing many people in other than absolute hardcore film fans who know who Steven Soderbergh is. The TV spot campaign has been modest at best in scope and, IMO, has failed to capitalize on the movie's prime selling points (such as the presence of Michael Douglas and Channing Tatum), instead emphasizing the girl-power fight sequences via generic fast-cut montages, which simply won't cut it against Underworld. Hanna was much better sold, IMO, with Focus emphasizing the Hit Girl esque protagonist, heightened fairy-tale aesthetic, and Cate Blanchett playing against type as an icy assassin. It might not have appealed to everyone, but it differentiated itself enough to assure a solid audience showed up. I don't feel the Haywire promotion has accomplished this.

It's almost reminding me of two past Ewan McGregor flops, Stay and Deception. It'll do better than those, of course, but I am considering lowering my Derby prediction to 4.5-5 mil.

I sure hope it doesn't go that low. Yikes. But you're right. And they certainly should have sold the ensemble they have. It's crazy not to.

Maybe everyone is skewing their predictions to mess everyone else's derby predictions???

BTW....I think Haywire will make $30 million.....

Fandango Thurs

1. Red Tails - 27%
2. Underworld Awakening - 24%
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - 7%
4. Beauty and the Beast 3D - 4%
5. Haywire - 3%

Haywire is doing fine. New midnight record.

Great for Red Tails, I think it could make 20 million.

My Predictions for Jan 20-22 2012

http://www.worldofkj.com/article.php?i=601

My Predictions for January 20-22, 2012

http://www.worldofkj.com/article.php?i=602

I think Extremely Loud will do at least $15 million minimum. It's got decent buzz, freakin' Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock, and a good amount of theaters.

United 93 did $11.5 million opening weekend; World Trade Center did $18.7 million opening weekend. I think the best comparison though is The Lovely Bones, which also didn't have an enormous PTA in its small release, but ended up opening pretty decent ($17 million).

We shouldn't compare it to United 93 or World Trade Center at all, IMO. Those movies were selling visceral, in-the-moment depictions of September 11th.

The best comparisons, I feel, are past mid-tier Hanks movies. Larry Crowne, Charlie Wilson's War, The Ladykillers. I'm predicting a 13/40 type run.

Well the difference is the award buzz that it is getting. I think that helps it to do better than Larry Crowne and the Ladykillers.

It has no awards buzz anymore.

Max Von Sydow is most likely getting nominated and it still has a shot at a couple of others.

Hahahaha... NO