Right now I have Scorsese having a slight edge over Hazanavicious in the Best Director race. Even though it is still possible for The Descendants to somehow win BP, I definitely don't see Payne taking BD. Fincher or Spielberg might get a nom, but no winning here. This is down to Scorsese and Hazanavicious and I believe the former has a slight edge. We haven't had a split in a while too.

I guess it all comes down to which director the Academy thinks made their love of early cinema more apparent.

I'd be shocked if either the Artist or Hugo won BP without BD. I think there's a chance for either to run away with both, but I suspect whoever votes BP for those films will also be more likely to vote BD for it if anything

I haven't seen The Artist but I have a feeling Scorsese will really, really deserve to win this one. He did an unbelievably good job

Descendants OTOH would have BP without BD written all over it if it won (but then again, I woudl've said that about Hooper vs Fincher a year ago)

Very clearly and bluntly it seems

Am I crazy or is the only lock Haz? I see 5 others in Scorsese, Allen, Miller, Payne and Spielberg who are all without question in play. If Spielberg and War Horse sneak in again somebody's getting burned. Not even mentioning Tate Taylor who would be a "crap, is The Help winning Best Picture?" nominee and Fincher who they probably don't like but nonetheless is involved after the guilds so far

I could definitely see War Horse being Munich and Spielberg taking one of Allen/Scorsese's spot and Haz, Payne, Miller just having too strong of actor based film support. Or Payne being vulnerable. Or Miller of course but for some reason I'm confident he's pulling a Gilroy Michael Clayton/poor man's Hooper King's Speech and is fine on his film's back despite the lack of flash. So any of the combinations of Haz + Scorsese/Allen/Payne/Miller/Spielberg wouldn't shock me

Really starting to think Hugo could get its head cut off on nomination day. Might have some "I'm not voting for a kids movie! Get off my lawn!" ballots.

I am still not completely sold on Fincher being nominated here...but if he is, I could really see him win too. He is by now quite overdue and after last year.... In any case, he has a better shot than Payne, Spielberg or Allen.

The BD win will be between him, Hazanavicius and Scorsese. And while I see The Artist winning BP, I am still sensing a split this year.

Fincher isn't winning. It'll be Scorsese or Hazanavicius.

I am predicting Scorsese for the win right now, I believe. He seems so much more beloved now by the general Hollywood community now than he was in the '70s and '80s. As if they needed to catch up. Now he seems to have blossomed into this affectionate "Uncle Marty" type figure, and I could definitely see there being an urge to give him a second Oscar.

If Hazanavicius wins, though, it would be total repeat of last year. Where you have four iconoclastic, well-known directors and then the fifth dude, a relative unknown with Weinstein beside him, swoops in and wins.

This is far more important than any other factor in the race. Harvey owns the academy.

Yeah, I think the Oscar will go to him. He has been overdue for so long that even though his last nom resulted in a win, it still feels like the Academy owes him something more.

I wonder if Woody Allen will be nominated.

Woody Allen and Terrence Malick should watch the ceremony together in the latter's Austin tree house.

With the Globes win and the general strength of the film, Scorsese looks more and more likely to win Best Director. I suppose DGA will tell us more, but if he wins there, I see no stopping at the Oscars. I think there will be a need to honor this love letter to cinema in a big way as well. BP will go to The Artist, but this should get director.

In fact, it wouldn't shock me if Hugo won the most Oscars overall, yet lost BP to The Artist (like The Aviator which won more Oscars than Million Dollar Baby, but lost BP/BD to it).