I think box office totals will make a difference this year. With no clear frontrunner, if there's an audience favorite, that might give enough momentum for a dark horse...

I don't even know most of the contenders this year.

Without actors support, as indicated by SAG, TTSS' BP shot looks longer and longer. If it somehow gets a nom, the British force within the academy will be truly amazing.

Yeah I'm not predicting Taking Shelter anymore without it showing up like I though it would after the first few

The Artest
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Looks like a reasonable and AMPAs following BP lineup

I don't think Moneyball's getting many top 1/3 votes

It's not even called Taking Shelter. At least get the name of the film you're championing right.

Gimme Shelter?

Drive getting a BP nom would be glorious. That is all.

Last year taught us critics domination does not equal AMPAs domination

Though it's pretty damn obvious that the AMPAs if anything are going to like this thing more

I think the Help with its high profile box-office/white guilt is the biggest threat

I definitely think The Artist will win, but I maybe find myself agreeing with Shack that The Help is being at least somewhat underestimated. I think it's going to end up with like 7 or 8 nominations, and I definitely think it has a better chance at winning than War Horse or Midnight in Paris or Hugo or some of the other "locked" nominations.

I think I'd probs rank it The Artist, The Descendants, The Help. In likelihood of actually winning the award, at least. We'll see what happens with PGA.

I wonder if Dragon Tattoo can still swing a Picture nomination.

So, this is down to The Descendants and The Artist now? I don't see Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close making a stunning comeback and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo seems out as well.

I've been wondering what the five nominees would have been this year if we still had had only five slots. I'm thinking:

The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris

I think War Horse has more of a shot than Moneyball or Midnight in Paris.

Not Moneyball, IMO, which has been incredibly strong throughout the season.

IMO, the five would be:

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

I'm predicting The Artist, but wouldn't be surprised at all if The Help won.

I still maintain War Horse will start picking up steam. It's the ultimate crowd pleaser.

How awful does that sound...

It looks REALLY boring.

Which also, coincidentally, sounds like a BP film.

It's not boring at all. I was surprised how much I enjoyed it.

It's about a horse, though! And a boring war.

The two most boring movie subjects!

It's the most amazing horse in history.

I see... Well... You have me convinced!

Moneyball's problem is I have a really hard time seeing it getting the passion votes. I also think The Help has the Blind Side spot this year

I would put Hugo in the mix for the win just because

- Lots of nominations
- The AMPAs love movies about movies

There is a chance however that the Artist and Hugo hurt each other when it comes to the latter

I would say The Artist is way out in front of everything in terms of winning though

After seeing My Week With Marilyn I think it has an outside shot at a BP nomination just because I have a suspicion there's a lot of those AMPA voters who love Marilyn/Olivier/Leigh/Miller/etc., and it's a pretty enjoyable movie so I can see it getting some support for that over something like ToL. As with Hugo and the Artist, films based on their profession get love

I'm not sure if Capote was considered stronger than MWWM at this point

Shack, this is Take Shelter-talk again.

Look at Capote's reviews and passion for it and then look at MWWM's....