Okay, with TIFF and Venice, it's about time for an official thread for this year's Best Picture.

The whole 5-10 movies thing makes predicting difficult, but let's take an extremely early shot at it and see if anyone will get half of the films right now.

I'm thinking:

Tinker, Tailor, Solder, Spy
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Martha Marcy May Marlene
The Descendants
The Ides of March
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I predict only one George Clooney film will be nominated, and it probably won't be The Ides of March. I'm also dubious about Martha Marcy May Marlene's Oscar chances, although Fox Searchlight is pretty saavy and certainly could pull it off.

Which ones do you expect to make it instead?

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
Wuthering Heights

The Help
J. Edgar

Alternates:
A Dangerous Method
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life

The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
The Help
J Edgar
Midnight In Paris
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse

I've never heard of most of these films.

I hope Potter isn't nominated.

The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
J. Edgar
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse

A Dangerous Method, The Tree of Life, and The Artist are possibilites, but they're probably just too cool for the Academy.

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (not both)
The Help
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Tree of Life
and maaaaybe War Horse, if it's really good.

Okay, now randomly take one of those movies off that list. That's what I'll predict. Seriously, with the new rules it's more or less a crapshoot at this point. Something we're not talking about at all could still totally sneak in there.

I'm just going to predict 10.

The Artist
Midnight in Paris
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
The Help
J. Edgar
A Dangerous Method
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life

The Descendants or Ides Of March (or maybe neither)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (if it's good)
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (if ELIC isn't good)

The movie "no one is talking about" (compared to, say, The Descendants or Tinker, Tailor), but then comes out of "nowhere" and is a big W.O.M. hit/Oscar heavyweight will be My Week with Marilyn.

Would absolutely love to see you be right about that Gun. I wish they'd get a trailer out already. Maybe next week with I Don't Know How She Does It.

I know it's superficial but when I hear about "My Week with Marilyn" I think of Linklater's "Me and Orson Welles"

God, I really hope that does not happen, extremely loud is just an awful awful sounding project. After The Reader Daldry, that piece of shit, is gonna do this in a hopelessly sentimental fashion, it's gonna be complete shit but people who don't know what their talking about will acclaim it, and yes that includes half of Hollywood.

At least Daldry isn't making The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Klay. That could only work as a mini-series.

Sight unseen, I think Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is the frontrunner. It's timely/relevant subject matter (especially this year), the book is acclaimed, Daldry has never not been nominated, and its prestige/scope reminds me of A Beautiful Mind for some reason.

The Artist might be the sentimental favorite and I think could even pull a Life Is Beautiful.

It's hard to predict the nominees when we don't know how many there will actually be, but these films all seem like serious contenders off the top of my head:
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Descendants
J. Edgar
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse

Why is everyone ignoring Moneyball? Has the director, cast, fits Oscar's profile. It might not win, but it's as good a choice as any to get a nomination.

Some RT numbers so far for unreleased films:

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - 11 reviews, 100% with 8.0 average
Martha Marcy May Marlene - 9 reviews, 100% with 8.0 average
The Artist - 6 reviews, 100% with 9.2 average
The Descendants - 3 reviews, 100%
The Ides of March - 14 reviews, 86% with 7.0 average
Moneyball: 7 reviews, 86% with 7.6 average

Tinker, Tailor added another positive review that increased the average to 8.2/10.

Speaking of a potential winners...the field is more narrow. I definitely don't see Martha Marcy May Marlene, The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Ides of March, The Iron Lady, War Horse, A Dangerous Method or The Artist winning, even if they get the noms. Just no...

That that leaves it to The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Descendants and J. Edgar. One of these will win BP.

I don't see it being J. Edgar simply because I don't see it giving another BP to Eastwood, especially not to a biopic.

The Help ONLY stands a chance if numerous of the films above disappoint with the critics. I'd argue its chance is better than The Blind Side's ever was, but still not enough I'd say.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo would have to get The Departed-like reviews AT LEAST to have a chance. Fincher is due and him winning Director is not as unlikely as this film winning Picture, though. If it makes $150+ million and is really beloved it could win, however.

The Descendants, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close all have a fair chance to win, IMO. Daldry's film is currently a complete wild card, but we all know Daldry's history with the Oscars. And a good 9/11 film released in the year of the 10th anniversary....yeah, that helps.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy will have the Brits behind it and a thriller like this hasn't won in a long time.

The Descendants will be there on the strength of just being enormously good (as it seems to be). Clooney might become the frontrunner for Best Actor (after probably rather narrowly losing for Up in the Air) and Payne might become the frontrunner for his screenplay...

RT scores:

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy - 97% (35 reviews), 8/10
The Descendants - 92% (13 reviews), 8.5/10
Martha Marcy May Marlene - 100% (10 reviews), 8.1/10
The Artist - 100% (6 reviews), 9.2/10
We Need to Talk about Kevin - 95% (19 reviews), 8.1/10
The Ides of March - 81% (16 reviews), 7/10
A Dangerous Method - 79% (14 reviews), 6.3/10
The Tree of Life - 85% (223 reviews), 8.1/10
Midnight in Paris - 92% (151 reviews), 7.9/10
Moneyball - 83% (18 reviews), 7.8/10
Drive - 93% (129 reviews), 8.4/10

Just missed out on tickets to Martha Marcy May Marlene tonight...

Was really wanting to see it today, but will have to wait a bit longer! It's getting a very positive reaction at TIFF.

Sasha Stone is convinced Moneyball will make it. Still think it needs box office, at least $100m+ like Seabiscuit got.

RT scores:

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy - 97% (38 reviews), 7.9/10
The Descendants - 93% (14 reviews), 8.4/10
Martha Marcy May Marlene - 100% (10 reviews), 8.1/10
The Artist - 100% (6 reviews), 9.2/10
We Need to Talk about Kevin - 95% (20 reviews), 8.1/10
The Ides of March - 81% (16 reviews), 7/10
A Dangerous Method - 79% (14 reviews), 6.3/10
The Tree of Life - 85% (223 reviews), 8.1/10
Midnight in Paris - 92% (151 reviews), 7.9/10
Moneyball - 92% (75 reviews), 8.2/10 (Top Critics is at 100% and 8.6/10 after 27 reviews!)
Drive - 92% (176 reviews), 8.2/10

I admit, Moneyball now looks much stronger than before, especially in comparison. If the box-office plays along, it's in.

If the Artist wasn't B&W it'd be the easy frontrunner. I don't know if it'll be popular enough now

A Dangerous Method's reviews are disappointing... I was expecting the critical #1 of the year and early BP frontrunner but gets jobbed in the end... doesn't look like it'll get that far.

I'm hearing cold and not entertaining about TTSS. Has the Brit support but certainly looks more Capote than Crash as a nominee

Descendants... probably the frontrunner though it seems like an Up in the Air type nominee, not win.

Not buying Edgar, Iron Lady or Incredibly Loud at all. Too shameless.

I'm guessing the noms are

The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Descendants
The Help
Moneyball

The Artist is B&W AND silent. I don't see how it's getting in.