August 27-28, 2011
Weekend Forecast

1 (-) God's Medical Record (Toho) 300 million yen ($3.90 million) NEW
2 (1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 180 million yen ($2.36 million) Week 7
3 (4) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 135 million yen ($1.77 million) Week 7
4 (2) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) 130 million yen ($1.70 million) Week 2
5 (3) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 125 million yen ($1.64 million) Week 5
6 (5) Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 100 million yen ($1.30 million) Week 5
7 (7) Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 90 million yen ($1.17 million) Week 7
8 (6) Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 85 million yen ($1.11 million) Week 4
9 (8) Shanghai (Gaga) 70 million yen ($925,000) Week 2
10 (9) Usagi Drop (School Gate) 65 million yen ($850,000) Week 2

Predicted Totals after this Weekend

Harry Potter 7.2: 8.75 billion yen ($114.5 million), 6.2m admissions
From Kokuriko Hill: 3.75 billion yen ($49.1 million), 2.95m admissions
Transformers 3: 3.71 billion yen ($48.2 million), 2.45m admissions
Cars 2: 2.73 billion yen ($35.7 million), 2m admissions
Pokemon the Movie 14: 3.84 billion yen ($50.3 million), 3.7m admissions.
Kamen Rider/Gokaiger: 1.6 billion yen ($20.8 million), 1.35m admissions.

Looks like a few nasty drops this weekend.

Saturday Data compared to last Saturday from the Usual Locations,

Harry Potter 7.2 (-43.2%)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (-46.2%)
Transformers 3 (-47.3%)
From Kokuriko Hill (-41.1%)
Cars 2 (-38%)
Pokemon 14 (-36.5%)
Kamen Rider (-33.3%) the holds this one is having are really, really surprising.
Usagi Drop (-54.6%)
Shanghai (-61.6%)
Tree of Life (-55.6%)

God's Medical Record was 81.4% ahead of Paradise Kiss' first day in release, which would result in an opening weekend of about 350 million yen ($4.5 million). Great start if that holds, guaranteeing at least 2 billion yen ($25 million).

Everything improved over Saturday, and below are the weekend drops (from the Usual Locations) compared to last weekend, and the estimated gross.

Harry Potter 7.2 (-28.1%), 175 million yen (week 7)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (-33.0%), 134 million yen (week 2)
From Kokuriko Hill (-28.5%), 118 million yen (week 7)
Cars 2 (-25.3%), 116 million yen (week 5)
Transformers 3 (-43.0%), 113 million yen (week 5)
Kamen Rider (-26.9%), 102 million yen (week 4)
Pokemon 14 (-23.7%), 99 million yen (week 7)
Usagi Drop (-45.3%), 55 million yen (week 2)
Shanghai (-58.8%), 42 million yen (week 2)
Tree of Life (-48.1%), 28 million yen (week 3)

God's Medical Record ended up 71% ahead of Paradise Kiss, so it's looking at first place with about 325 million yen ($4.2 million) this weekend.

Numbers based on 15% of the market.

August 27-28, 2011
Weekend Admission Ranking

1 (-) God's Medical Record (Toho) NEW
2 (1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 7
3 (2) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) Week 2
4 (6) Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) Week 7
5 (5) Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) Week 4
6 (4) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 7
7 (3) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) Week 5
8 (7) Cars 2 (Walt Disney) Week 5
9 (9) Usagi Drop (School Gate) Week 2
10 (8) Shanghai (Gaga) Week 2

http://www.nikkansports.com/entertainme ... sales.html

God's Medical Record opened to 302,853,600 yen ($3.93 million) with 239,522 admissions on 321 screens. And apparently, 93% of the audience on the first day were women.

Toho is expecting the film to reach 3 billion yen, but they almost always over-project. The film will fall between 2-2.5 billion yen ($25-32 million) instead, which is really good.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is "close" to 9 billion yen ($117 million) after exceeding 6 million admissions. Japan overtakes the UK as the film's biggest oversea market I believe with this.

From Kokuriko Hill exceeded 3 million admissions, and 3.8 billion yen ($49 million).

Cars 2 exceeded 2 million admissions, and 2.7 billion yen ($35 million). Japan has also become Cars 2's biggest oversea market.

That's all the figures released so far. With that hold though, Pokemon must be very close to 4 billion yen ($52 million) and 4 million admissions. The highest grossing Pokemon film in USD is Giratina and the Sky Warrior in 2008 that grossed $53.3 million.

Update with Estimates

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4.10 billion yen ($50.48 million), 3,290,000 admissions.
________
2. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 3,930,000,000 yen ($51,090,000), 3,810,000 admissions. [44 Days In Release]
3. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 3,870,000,000 yen ($50,300,000), 3,050,000 admissions. [44 Days In Release]
4. Gantz Part 1 (Toho) 3.45 billion yen ($41.66 million), 2,770,000 admissions.
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) 3.33 billion yen ($41.06 million), 2,600,000 admissions.
6. Partners the Movie 2 (TOEI) 3.19 billion yen ($38.98 million), 2,500,000 admissions.
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 miillion), 2,630,000 admissions.
________
8. Gantz Perfect Answer (Toho) 2.80 billion yen ($35.38 million), 2,230,000 admissions.
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops (Toho) 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million), 2,160,000 admissions.
________
10. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) 1,850,000,000 yen ($24,050,000), 1,475,000 admissions. [65 Days In Release]
11. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 1.77 billion yen ($22.42 million), 1,480,000 admissions.
12. Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 1,605,000,000 yen ($20,800,000), 1,355,000 admissions. [23 Days in Release]
13. Gaku (Toho) 1.60 billion yen ($20.23 million), 1,270,000 admissions.
14. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 1.58 billion yen ($20.08 million), 1,225,000 admissions.
15. Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 1.57 billion yen ($19.80 million), 1,248,000 admissions.
16. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 1.42 billion yen ($17.92 million), 1,127,000 admissions.
17. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 1.41 billion yen ($18.02 million), 1,116,000 admissions.
18. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 1.40 billion yen ($17.69 million), 1,113,000 admissions.
19. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 1.38 billion yen ($17.53 million), 1,115,000 admissions.
20. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders (TOEI) 1.35 billion yen ($17.07 million), 1,110,000 admissions.
21. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 1.23 billion yen ($15.56 million), 1,005,000 admissions.
22. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission (Toho) 1.20 billion yen ($15.13 million), 1,142,000 admissions.
23. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 1.17 billion yen ($14.74 million), 956,000 admissions.
24. Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 1.10 billion yen ($13.85 million), 912,000 admissions.
25. Hankyu Densha (Toho) 1.06 billion yen ($13.44 million), 881,000 admissions.



[IMPORTED FILMS]

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 9.00 billion yen ($116 million), 5,900,000 admissions.
________
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 8,850,000,000 yen ($115,050,000), 6,300,000 admissions. [45 Days In Release]
________
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million), 5,580,000 admissions.
________
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 3,750,000,000 yen ($48,500,000), 2,490,000 admissions [31 Days in Release]
________
5. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 2,775,000,000 yen ($36,000,000), 2,040,000 admissions. [30 Days in Release]
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2.68 billion yen ($31.94 million), 1,768,000 admissions.
7. Tangled (Walt Disney) 2.55 billion yen ($31.34 million), 1,752,000 admissions.
8. Black Swan (Fox) 2.36 billion yen ($30.40 million), 1,810,000 admissions.
9. TRON: Legacy (Walt Disney) 2.10 billion yen ($25.58 million), 1,347,000 admissions.
________
10. The King's Speech (Gaga) 1.90 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,450,000 admissions.
11. The Tourist (Sony) 1.86 billion yen ($23.37 million), 1,439,000 admissions.
12. Super 8 (Paramount) 1.75 billion yen ($22.75 million), 1,414,000 admissions.
13. Gulliver's Travels (Fox) 1.57 billion yen ($19.81 million), 1,046,000 admissions.
14. The Social Network (Sony) 1.42 billion yen ($17.84 million), 1,111,000 admissions.
15. Red (Walt Disney) 1.20 billion yen ($15.26 million), 967,000 admissions.
16. Unstoppable (Fox) 1.05 billion yen ($13.31 million), 836,000 admissions.


Key:

BOLD = Final Total.

Note 1 - If a film is not in bold, and doesn't have days in release (e.g. Unstoppable), it means tracking for that film ended and the total listed isn't final yet. The totals for those films are likely to increase <1% when the final total is released.

Highlights:

Harry Potter 7.2 is very near surpassing Pirates 4 for the No.1 spot of the year in gross.
Pokemon 14 will soon become the the fourth film this year to exceed 4 million admissions, following the Potter films and Pirates.
Pokemon 14, From Kokuriko Hill, and Transformers 3 are all nearing 4 billion yen. They'll reach the milestone in the same order.
Cars 2 exceeds 2 million admissions as it aims for 3 billion yen.


Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.

Films nearing 1 billion yen:
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (~900 million)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (~900 million)
Nintama Rantarou Live Action Movie! (~900 million)

PREVIOUS YEARS

Looks like TF3 will not even end in Top 5 at the end of year, though should be in Top 10 for sure. Cars 2 will not pass TF3 still though a respectable total in the end. KFP2 is doing good as well, should cross 1b yen admissions I guess

Transformers 3 could end up in the Top 5 of 2011.

The top three is set with Harry Potter 7.2, Pirates 4, and Harry Potter 7.1, but fourth and fifth is pretty much wide open (mostly).

Kokuriko Hill is most likely to make the Top 5 because it'll remain in wide release for several more months, and will have the best late legs among the Top 5 contenders. It's also currently grossing more than the other contenders now. Using a rough comparison with Arrietty's performance after August results in a total of about 4.4 billion yen ($57 million).

Pokemon is next as a likely Top 5 contender. Using last year's film, and the previous two films before that, this year's film is looking at a total of 4.2 billion yen ($54.5 million) or so edging out Space Battleship Yamato's 4.1 billion yen total from the beginning of the year to make the Top 5.

That would round out the Top 5 of 2011, but Transformers is on track for at least 4 billion yen ($52 million). If it can manage some strong holds in the coming weeks, it could still make the Top 5. Either way, it's much better than it's predecessors ranked in their years. Transformers only ranked 10th of 2007, and Transformers 2 ranked 25th of 2009.

Little Monster is probably the only other release this year that will gross 4 billion yen or more, but the November 26th release date will probably make it a 2012 release.

No other foreign language movie has a shot of crossing $50m this year ? But given the year will end by November I kinda think there won't....hmmmm

No, I don't think any other films will gross $50 million the rest of the 2011 Box Office Year (before Dec. 1st). Seven films above $50 million for the year (two over $100 million) is still really strong though.

Little Monster, Mission Impossible IV, and Tale of Genji could in December, but they'll be included in the 2012 Box Office Year.

At least the latter two will be, still not sure about Little Monster. Sometimes late November releases are included in the current year, and other times they're counted in the following year. I think the placement depends on the gross before December (which is just five days for Little Monster, so my bet is on 2012).

August 27-28, 2011
Weekend Actuals

*1　--　*3億0285万3615円 ($3,937,096)　 ---.-%　**3億0285万3615円 ($3,937,096)　　321　　*1　神様のカルテ (God's Medical Record)
*2　*1　*1億7212万9796円 ($2,237,687)　 -30.2%　*88億6263万7202円 ($115,214,287)　　721　　*7　ﾊﾘｰ･ﾎﾟｯﾀｰと死の秘宝 PART2 (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
*3　*2　*1億3600万3017円 ($1,768,039)　 -32.1%　**6億6032万6725円 ($8,584,247)　　535　　*2　カンフー・パンダ2 (Kung Fu Panda 2)
*4　*3　*1億3087万9693円 ($1,700,436)　 -34.0%　*37億5070万5298円 ($48,759,168)　　693　　*5　トランスフォーマー/ダークサイド・ムーン (Transformers: Dark of the Moon)
*5　*4　*1億1236万2705円 ($1,460,715)　 -31.7%　*37億7832万0709円 ($49,118,169)　　457　　*7　コクリコ坂から (From Kokuriko Hill)
*6　*5　*1億0456万5802円 ($1,359,355)　 -32.3%　*27億0744万4690円 ($35,196,781)　　517　　*5　カーズ2 (Cars 2)
*7　*6　**億9878万2876円 ($1,284,177)　 -29.5%　*15億6161万9208円 ($20,301,049)　　369　　*4　仮面ライダーオーズ/ゴーカイジャー (Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE)
*8　*7　**億9874万4606円 ($1,283,680)　 -23.2%　*39億3594万8611円 ($51,167,331)　　351　　*7　劇場版ﾎﾟｹｯﾄﾓﾝｽﾀｰﾍﾞｽﾄｳｨｯｼｭ～ (Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes)
*9　*9　**億6023万2499円 ($783,022)　 -39.8%　**2億9173万7514円 ($3,792,588)　　111　　*2　うさぎドロップ (Usagi Drop)
10　*8　**億5283万7304円 ($686,885)　 -48.8%　**2億8611万6914円 ($3,719,520)　　204　　*2　シャンハイ (Shanghai)

Update with Actuals

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4.10 billion yen ($50.48 million), 3,290,000 admissions.
________
2. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 3,935,948,611 yen ($51,167,331), 3,812,848 admissions. [44 Days In Release]
3. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 3,778,320,709 yen ($49,118,169), 3,046,376 admissions. [44 Days In Release]
4. Gantz Part 1 (Toho) 3.45 billion yen ($41.66 million), 2,770,000 admissions.
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) 3.33 billion yen ($41.06 million), 2,600,000 admissions.
6. Partners the Movie 2 (TOEI) 3.19 billion yen ($38.98 million), 2,500,000 admissions.
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 miillion), 2,630,000 admissions.
________
8. Gantz Perfect Answer (Toho) 2.80 billion yen ($35.38 million), 2,230,000 admissions.
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops (Toho) 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million), 2,160,000 admissions.
________
10. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) 1,849,348,175 yen ($24,048,202), 1,474,964 admissions. [65 Days In Release]
11. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 1.77 billion yen ($22.42 million), 1,480,000 admissions.
12. Gaku (Toho) 1.60 billion yen ($20.23 million), 1,270,000 admissions.
13. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 1.58 billion yen ($20.08 million), 1,225,000 admissions.
14. Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 1.57 billion yen ($19.80 million), 1,248,000 admissions.
15. Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 1,561,619,208 yen ($20,301,049), 1,342,007 admissions. [23 Days in Release]
16. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 1.42 billion yen ($17.92 million), 1,127,000 admissions.
17. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 1.41 billion yen ($18.02 million), 1,116,000 admissions.
18. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 1.40 billion yen ($17.69 million), 1,113,000 admissions.
19. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 1.38 billion yen ($17.53 million), 1,115,000 admissions.
20. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders (TOEI) 1.35 billion yen ($17.07 million), 1,110,000 admissions.
21. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 1.23 billion yen ($15.56 million), 1,005,000 admissions.
22. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission (Toho) 1.20 billion yen ($15.13 million), 1,142,000 admissions.
23. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 1.17 billion yen ($14.74 million), 956,000 admissions.
24. Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 1.10 billion yen ($13.85 million), 912,000 admissions.
25. Hankyu Densha (Toho) 1.06 billion yen ($13.44 million), 881,000 admissions.



[IMPORTED FILMS]

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 9.00 billion yen ($116 million), 5,900,000 admissions.
________
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 8,862,637,202 yen ($115,214,287), 6,321,424 admissions. [45 Days In Release]
________
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million), 5,580,000 admissions.
________
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 3,750,705,298 yen ($48,759,168), 2,492,786 admissions [31 Days in Release]
________
5. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 2,707,444,690 yen ($35,196,781), 2,013,700 admissions. [30 Days in Release]
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2.68 billion yen ($31.94 million), 1,768,000 admissions.
7. Tangled (Walt Disney) 2.55 billion yen ($31.34 million), 1,752,000 admissions.
8. Black Swan (Fox) 2.36 billion yen ($30.40 million), 1,810,000 admissions.
9. TRON: Legacy (Walt Disney) 2.10 billion yen ($25.58 million), 1,347,000 admissions.
________
10. The King's Speech (Gaga) 1.90 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,450,000 admissions.
11. The Tourist (Sony) 1.86 billion yen ($23.37 million), 1,439,000 admissions.
12. Super 8 (Paramount) 1.75 billion yen ($22.75 million), 1,414,000 admissions.
13. Gulliver's Travels (Fox) 1.57 billion yen ($19.81 million), 1,046,000 admissions.
14. The Social Network (Sony) 1.42 billion yen ($17.84 million), 1,111,000 admissions.
15. Red (Walt Disney) 1.20 billion yen ($15.26 million), 967,000 admissions.
16. Unstoppable (Fox) 1.05 billion yen ($13.31 million), 836,000 admissions.


Key:

BOLD = Final Total.

Note 1 - If a film is not in bold, and doesn't have days in release (e.g. Unstoppable), it means tracking for that film ended and the total listed isn't final yet. The totals for those films are likely to increase <1% when the final total is released.

Highlights:

Harry Potter 7.2 is very near surpassing Pirates 4 for the No.1 spot of the year in gross.

Pokemon 14 will soon become the the fourth film this year to exceed 4 million admissions, following the Potter films and Pirates. It also becomes the highest grossing Japanese film of the year in USD, and should just take 7-9 more days in Yen.

Pokemon 14, From Kokuriko Hill, and Transformers 3 are all nearing 4 billion yen. They'll reach the milestone in the same order.

Cars 2 exceeds 2 million admissions as it aims for 3 billion yen.


Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.

Films nearing 1 billion yen:
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (~900 million)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (~900 million)
Nintama Rantarou Live Action Movie! (~900 million)

PREVIOUS YEARS

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 became the No.1 Film of 2011 yesterday (August 31st), surpassing Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, with a gross of 9,006,450,000 yen ($117.08 million) on 6,383,000 admissions.

And Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes became the fifth film of 2011 to exceed 4 billion yen ($52 million) on 3,870,000 admissions yesterday.

http://movie.walkerplus.com/

The release date is set for January 21st, 2012.

Always: Sunset of Third Street grossed 3.23 billion yen in 2005. (14th biggest film of the Year)
Always: Sunset on Third Street Part 2 grossed 4.56 billion yen in 2007. (6th biggest film of the Year)

I wouldn't predict the third film doing as well as the second film (five years later is a bit long), but I see any reason why it won't match the first film in gross or do slightly better thanks to 3D this time around.

It'll definitely be among the bigger releases the first half of 2012, and likely the rest of the year.

September 3-4, 2011
Weekend Forecast

1 (1) God's Medical Record (Toho) 215 million yen ($2.79 million), Week 2
2 (-) One Life (Avex Entertainment) 190 million yen ($2.47 million), NEW
3 (2) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 118 million yen ($1.55 million), Week 8
4 (3) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) 91 million yen ($1.18 million), Week 3
5 (5) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 83 million yen ($1.06 million), Week 8
6 (4) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 79 million yen ($1.03 million), Week 6
7 (-) Winnie the Pooh (Walt Disney) 70 million yen ($910,000), NEW
8 (6) Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 60 million yen ($780,000), Week 6
9 (8) Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 57 million yen ($718,000), Week 8
10 (7) Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 54 million yen ($702,000), Week 5

Predicted Totals after this Weekend:

God's Medical Record - 775 million yen ($10.1 million), 9 Days in Release.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 9.20 billion yen ($119.6 million), 52 Days in Release.
Kung Fu Panda 2 - 900 million yen ($11.7 million), 17 Days in Release.
From Kokuriko Hill - 4.01 billion yen ($52.1 million), 51 Days in Release.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 3.97 billion yen ($51.6 million), 38 Days in Release.
Cars 2 - 2.88 billion yen ($37.4 million), 37 Days in Release.
Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes - 4.09 billion yen ($53.1 million), 51 Days in Release.
Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE - 1.72 billion yen ($22.3 million), 30 Days in Release.

wow, 30 million increase for TF3 from TF2.

Rare for sequels to increase here if the last film did poorly.

It's mostly to do with the dollar being weaker this year than any year before, and 85% of it's grosses coming from 3D. It's going to beat the original's 4.01 billion yen total soon though, so it's a very impressive performance either way.


Now some Studio Ghibli News,

Isao Takahata, the co-founder of Studio Ghibli and the director of such works as Grave of the Fireflies and Only Yesterday, confirmed on Friday that he has a new work. However, he cautioned that the new work is still not close to complete, and that it may be about two more years before it is.



Takahata was responding to a question at an event at the Museum of Contemporary Art at Tokyo. The museum is hosting an exhibition for the works of Canadian animator Frédéric Back in collaboration with Ghibli, and Takahata was speaking alongside actress Keiko Takeshita (Ghibli's From up on Poppy Hill) and craftsman Tadashi Inamoto. (All three speakers are involved in environmental efforts related to Back's work.)

It has been 12 years since Takahata's last feature film, 1999's My Neighbors the Yamadas. Ghibli producer Toshio Suzuki had hinted in 2009 that Takahata was working on a project based on the classic Japanese folktale Taketori Monogatari (The Tale of the Bamboo Cutter) in the style of the classical Japanese scroll Chōjū-jinbutsu-giga. Takahata himself mentioned Taketori Monogatari at the 62nd Locarno International Film Festival in August of that year. The 10th century tale, known by virtually every Japanese child, revolves around a princess named Kaguya who was discovered as a baby inside the stalk of a glowing bamboo plant.

Suzuki also said at the same Museum of Contemporary Art last month that the new work of the studio's other famous co-founder, Hayao Miyazaki, is an "autobiography." However, Suzuki's vague phrasing in Japanese did not indicate if the work is Miyazaki's own autobiography, or an adaptation of another person's autobiography.

http://www.cinematoday.jp/page/N0035013

Very exciting news, and it's great that the next two films from Ghibli are coming from the co-founders themselves.

Saturday Data:

Openers,

One Life - 145% better than Wanko. I don't have Wanko's opening weekend numbers, so not sure how good/bad this is.

Winnie the Pooh - 71.3% of God's Medical Record last weekend (would translate to about 160,000 admissions or 160/170 million yen (about $2 million)). Could end up a little lower in gross because tickets will be much lower than the general admission price, and probably most kid/family movies this year, too.

Very impressive I think, most likely going to result in a Top 3 debut this weekend. I guess Japan will be one of very few markets the movie ends up performing well in.

Holdovers,

Drops compared to last Saturday from the Usual Locations

God's Medical Record (-54.5%), Week 2
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (-32.7%), Week 8
Kung Fu Panda 2 (-37.0%), Week 3
From Kokuriko Hill (-30.6%), Week 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (-40.8%), Week 6
Pokemon: Best Wishes (-32.3%), Week 8
Cars 2 (-36.0%), Week 6
Kamen Rider (-34.9%), Week 5
Usagi Drop (-33.3%), Week 3
Shanghai (-42.8%), Week 3
Tree of Life (-48.1%), Week 4

A bit harsh for God's Medical Record. It could lose it's No.1 spot to the openers if it doesn't recover on Sunday.

Overall drops though are looking pretty good for the first weekend of September. In general, drops the first weekend of September aren't too kind, especially for kids/family films.

Weekend Admission Rankings are in from all major chains, but they each have vastly different rankings. One Life topped at Toho and Sunshine, Winnie the Pooh was tops at Warner Locations, and God's Medical Record stayed at No.1 at Shikoku locations. The rest of the Top 5/10 varies greatly at each location, too. The National Rankings will be interesting.

Also, looking at BOM's Foreign Page for Winnie the Pooh, it looks to have bombed big time in every single market, earning a pathetic $6.4 million total. But based on the Weekend Admission Rankings, it's performing really well in Japan. Pretty sure it'll beat it's Foreign Total of $6.4 million in just Japan with a Top 3 debut almost certain now.

September 3-4, 2011
Weekend Admission Ranking



1 (-) One Life (Avex Entertainment) NEW
2 (1) God's Medical Record (Toho) Week 2
3 (2) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 8
4 (3) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) Week 3
5 (-) Winnie the Pooh (Walt Disney) NEW
6 (6) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 8
7 (7) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) Week 6
8 (8) Cars 2 (Walt Disney) Week 6
9 (5) Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) Week 5
10 (4) Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) Week 8

http://www.nikkansports.com/entertainme ... sales.html

One Life opened on 310 screens to an impressive 226,880,350 yen ($2.94 million) over the weekend with 181,760 admissions. The film has grossed 349,518,850 yen ($4.54 million) since it's opening on Thursday on 299,391 admissions.

Nature Documentaries always do really well in Japan, and BBC's One Life will probably reach 2 billion yen ($25 million) or more with this great debut.

Winnie the Pooh opens with 82,162,900 yen ($1.07 million) over the weekend on 66,372 admissions. This is lower than I was expecting after data was coming in yesterday, but it was only released on just 150 screens. The No.1 debut at Warner locations couldn't weight out the lower rankings at other chains. Regardless, good debut for Pooh, and it will eventually cross 500 million yen ($6.5 million).

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 exceeded 6.5 million admissions, and 9.1 billion yen ($118 million) after eight weeks in release.

From Kokuriko Hill exceeded 4 billion yen ($52 million), the sixth film this year to reach the milestone, for 3.2 million admissions after eight weeks in release.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon passed 2.5 million admissions after six weeks in release, and is nearly at 4 billion yen ($52 million) itself. It'll reach the mark in a day or two most likely.

Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes sees it's expected big drop this weekend with schools back in session, but it still topped 3.9 million admissions (should be about 4.05 billion yen ($52.7 million), after it's eighth week in release.

Update with Estimates

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1/2/3 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4.10 billion yen ($50.48 million), 3,290,000 admissions.
1/2/3 Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 4,100,000,000 yen ($53,300,000), 3,910,000 admissions. [51 Days In Release]
1/2/3 From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 4,100,000,000 yen ($53,300,000), 3,250,000 admissions. [51 Days In Release]
________
4. Gantz Part 1 (Toho) 3.45 billion yen ($41.66 million), 2,770,000 admissions.
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) 3.33 billion yen ($41.06 million), 2,600,000 admissions.
6. Partners the Movie 2 (TOEI) 3.19 billion yen ($38.98 million), 2,500,000 admissions.
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 miillion), 2,630,000 admissions.
________
8. Gantz Perfect Answer (Toho) 2.80 billion yen ($35.38 million), 2,230,000 admissions.
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops (Toho) 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million), 2,160,000 admissions.
________
10. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) 1.85 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,500,000 admissions.
11. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 1.77 billion yen ($22.42 million), 1,480,000 admissions.
12. Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 1,700,000,000 yen ($22,100,000), 1,450,000 admissions. [30 Days in Release]
13. Gaku (Toho) 1.60 billion yen ($20.23 million), 1,270,000 admissions.
14. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 1.58 billion yen ($20.08 million), 1,225,000 admissions.
15. Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 1.57 billion yen ($19.80 million), 1,248,000 admissions.
16. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 1.42 billion yen ($17.92 million), 1,127,000 admissions.
17. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 1.41 billion yen ($18.02 million), 1,116,000 admissions.
18. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 1.40 billion yen ($17.69 million), 1,113,000 admissions.
19. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 1.38 billion yen ($17.53 million), 1,115,000 admissions.
20. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders (TOEI) 1.35 billion yen ($17.07 million), 1,110,000 admissions.
21. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 1.23 billion yen ($15.56 million), 1,005,000 admissions.
22. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission (Toho) 1.20 billion yen ($15.13 million), 1,142,000 admissions.
23. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 1.17 billion yen ($14.74 million), 956,000 admissions.
24. Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 1.10 billion yen ($13.85 million), 912,000 admissions.
25. Hankyu Densha (Toho) 1.06 billion yen ($13.44 million), 881,000 admissions.



[IMPORTED FILMS]

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 9,125,000,000 yen ($118,625,000), 6,505,000 admissions. [52 Days In Release]
________
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 9.00 billion yen ($116 million), 5,900,000 admissions.
________
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million), 5,580,000 admissions.
________
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 3,960,000,000 yen ($51,500,000), 2,595,000 admissions [38 Days in Release]
________
5. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 2,850,000,000 yen ($37,050,000), 2,110,000 admissions. [37 Days in Release]
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2.68 billion yen ($31.94 million), 1,768,000 admissions.
7. Tangled (Walt Disney) 2.55 billion yen ($31.34 million), 1,752,000 admissions.
8. Black Swan (Fox) 2.36 billion yen ($30.40 million), 1,810,000 admissions.
9. TRON: Legacy (Walt Disney) 2.10 billion yen ($25.58 million), 1,347,000 admissions.
________
10. The King's Speech (Gaga) 1.90 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,450,000 admissions.
11. The Tourist (Sony) 1.86 billion yen ($23.37 million), 1,439,000 admissions.
12. Super 8 (Paramount) 1.75 billion yen ($22.75 million), 1,414,000 admissions.
13. Gulliver's Travels (Fox) 1.57 billion yen ($19.81 million), 1,046,000 admissions.
14. The Social Network (Sony) 1.42 billion yen ($17.84 million), 1,111,000 admissions.
15. Red (Walt Disney) 1.20 billion yen ($15.26 million), 967,000 admissions.
16. Unstoppable (Fox) 1.05 billion yen ($13.31 million), 836,000 admissions.


Key:

BOLD = Final Total.

Note 1 - If a film is not in bold, and doesn't have days in release (e.g. Unstoppable), it means tracking for that film ended and the total listed isn't final yet. The totals for those films are likely to increase <1% when the final total is released.

Highlights:

The #1 Japanese Film of the Year in gross is up in the air with estimates putting Pokemon 14 and Kokuriko Hill dead even with Yamato, each earning over 4 billion yen. In USD, thanks to the exchange rate, Pokemon and Kokuriko come out ahead, and in admissions, Pokemon is tops.

Harry Potter 7.2 overtakes Pirates 4 to claim the #1 position among Imported Films, and Overall Film of the Year in gross and admissions.


Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.

Films nearing 1 billion yen:
Kung Fu Panda 2 (900 million) [17 Days in Release]
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (~900 million)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (~900 million)
Nintama Rantarou Live Action Movie! (~900 million)


PREVIOUS YEARS

With the Box Office Runs of franchise/brand films (Harry Potter, Studio Ghibli, Pokemon, and Pixar) slowing down a little now, I'll be posting a brief BO History charts for each this week (or today). First up,

Japan Box Office History - Pixar



1996, Toy Story - <1 billion yen
1999, A Bug's Life - 1.15 billion yen ($10.95 million)
2000, Toy Story 2 - 3.45 billion yen ($29.94 million)
2003, Monsters, Inc. - 9.37 billion yen ($76.80 million)
2004, Finding Nemo - 11.0 billion yen ($102.44 million)
2005, The Incredibles - 5.26 billion yen ($51.19 million)
2006, Cars - 2.23 billion yen ($26.12 million)
2007, Ratatouille - 3.90 billion yen ($36.30 million)
2009, Wall-E - 4.0 billion yen ($44.23 million)
2010, Up - 5.0 billion yen ($60.49 million)
2010, Toy Story 3 - 10.80 billion yen ($130.68 million)
2011, Cars 2 - 3.1/3.2 billion yen ($40/41 million) (projected final gross)

Cars 2 performed quite well in the end. Sure, 3D was a huge benefit, but a 40% increase over the original Cars is excellent.

Brave is up next year for Pixar. Based on the plot, the artwork/footage release, and a female character lead, I think it'll prove to be a big success for Pixar in the market. The tentative release date is July 2012.

Japan Box Office History - Harry Potter



2002, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - 20.30 billion yen ($170 million)
2002, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - 17.30 billion yen ($142.86 million)
2004, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 13.50 billion yen ($121.60 million)
2005, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 11.50 billion yen ($90.49 million)
2007, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - 9.40 billion yen ($88.36 million)
2009, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 8.0 billion yen ($88.46 million)
2011, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 - 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million)
2011, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 9.5/9.6 billion yen ($123/124 million) (projected final gross)

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 was unable to reach the heights of it's earlier installments in local currency or admissions, but is well on track to become the third highest grossing film of the franchise in USD. The film's biggest achievement is perhaps breaking a 9 year decline in gross (and attendance) within the franchise.

I should have noted this earlier before I posted the Pixar and Harry Potter charts (bottom of the previous page), but if a film's final USD total was never released (mainly applies to films released pre-2000) the USD totals for those films are conversions using the exchange rate of the last month of that film's performance.

Yen and Dollar rankings don't match up at times.


Japan Box Office History - Pokemon



1998, Mewtwo Strikes Back - 7.54 billion yen ($57.71 million).
1999, The Power of One - 6.36 billion yen ($54.30 million)
2000, Spell of the Unown - 4.85 billion yen ($45.78 million)
2001, Celebi: Voice of the Forest - 3.90 billion yen ($32.52 million)
2002, Heroes: Latias and Latios - 2.67 billion yen ($21.80 million)
2003, Jirachi: Wishmaster - 4.50 billion yen ($38.42 million)
2004, Destiny Deoxys - 4.38 billion yen ($39.11 million)
2005, Lucario and the Mystery of Mew - 4.30 billion yen ($38.95 million)
2006, Pokemon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea - 3.40 billion yen ($28.24 million)
2007, The Rise of Darkrai - 5.02 billion yen ($47.20 million)
2008, Giratina and the Sky Warrior - 4.80 billion yen ($53.31 million)
2009, Arceus and the Jewel of Life - 4.67 billion yen ($51.60 million)
2010, Zoroark: Master of Illusions - 4.16 billion yen ($50.30 million)
2011, Victini and the Deep Black Pokemon: Zekrom/Victini and the Vast White Pokemon: Reshiram - 4.2/4.3 billion yen ($54/55 million) (projected final gross)

Victini and the Deep Black Pokemon: Zekrom/Victini and the Vast White Pokemon: Reshiram performed as expected, proving the franchise is still as strong as ever and will end up near the top grossing films of the franchise in USD.

This year's Pokemon Movie was the first time ever that two different versions were released (comparable to the video games) on the same day. The Reshiram (White) Version performed the better of the two, representing approx. 53% of the combined gross since opening weekend.

However, the Pokemon Company and distributor Toho were probably expecting a few more receipts with the two film version strategy. Whether they plan to do this every year now is unknown at the moment with Movie 15 unannounced.

And the last of franchises/brands with a film currently in release.

Japan Box Office History - Studio Ghibli



1986, Laputa: Castle in the Sky - <1 billion yen
1988, My Neighbor Totoro/Grave of the Fireflies (Double Feature) - <1 billion yen
1989, Kiki's Delivery Service - 2.15 billion yen ($30.71 million)
1991, Only Yesterday - 1.87 billion yen ($24.60 million)
1992, Porco Rosso - 2.80 billion yen ($33.34 million)
1994, Pom Poko - 2.63 billion yen ($26.04 million)
1995, Whisper of the Heart - 1.85 billion yen ($18.13 million)
1997, Princess Mononoke - 19.30 billion yen ($165 million)
1999, My Neighbors the Yamadas - <1 billion yen
2001, Spirited Away - 30.40 billion yen ($234 million)
2002, The Cat Returns - 6.46 billion yen ($54.39 million)
2004, Howl's Moving Castle - 22.0 billion yen ($190 million)
2006, Tales from Earthsea - 7.65 billion yen ($62.93 million)
2008, Ponyo on a Cliff by the Sea - 15.50 billion yen ($172.15 million)
2010, The Borrower Arrietty - 9.25 billion yen ($111.93 million)
2011, From Kokuriko Hill - 4.4/4.5 billion yen ($57/58 million) (projected final gross)

From Kokuriko Hill started off rather poorly, but has since recovered with a multiplier over 11 and will finish with a very respectable total. Goro Miyazaki's second feature film couldn't match the box office success of his previous film, Tales from Earthsea, but critics and fans gave From Kokuriko Hill much better reviews than his first work which is considered the studio's worst film.

Next for Studio Ghibli are films being directed by the co-founders themselves. Isao Takahata returns after a 12 year break, and is working on Taketori Monogatari (arguably the most well-known tale by Japanese children), while Hayao Miyazaki is at work on an unknown autobiography (rumored to be his own to finish his filmography). The earliest either film gets released will be in 2013.

Thank you so much for the data, Corpse

But, if you don't mind, can you posting BO history charts for Detective Conan & Doraemon franchise? It would be great