I guess so, thankyou

In the spirit of the films, we've split There And Back Again into a different thread...

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=64517

I personally don't know which one will gross more. TTT didn't end up grossing much more than FOTR and Part I will have the added nostalgia factor (i.e. bigger opening).

I feel that regardless of how good Part I is it's bound to dissapoint some leading to a slightly more muted Part II gross. Part II will need to amp up the fact that this is the absolute FINAL feature Tolkien movie. It's going to be generations before we'll ever see something get made again...

This is looking quite scary, World War Z joining Life of Pi and Lone Ranger in the weekend slot just after Hobbit's opening.

December (Details)
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (WB) - 12/14
• Hunter Killer (Rela.) - 12/21
• Life of Pi (Fox) - 12/21
• Lone Ranger (BV) - 12/21
• World War Z (Par.) - 12/21
• Django Unchained (Wein.) - 12/25

A big drop could be instore with massive competition...

Event movies do not have big drops in their 2nd weekends with or without competition. What you'll most likely see is that Hunter Killer, Life of Pi, Lone Ranger or World War Z will be squashed out of that date or they will lose interest from people because of too many titles. It's a silly thing for the studios to do. The Hobbit will not be affected, though. It'll have a 40-45% drop anyway.

Something needs to move, there's a good 2 weeks before The Hobbit without any competition.

Thankfully a competitor bites the dust. The Lone Ranger, WOW what a shocker indeed

The weekend of December 21st still looking mightly cramped with Life of Pi and World War Z, both looking like formidable oponnents.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/j ... hut-222777

I really like the way they're managing the production of the movie so far (unlike TDKR which is leaking spy shots left right and centre and the early buzz on the villain costume is not what you would've expected).

We've had an orgasmic few weeks about a month ago with the release of the dwarf photos and Production Diaries. As much as i want to see more, i don't want to hear anything from now until the holiday season.

I think they should next release a teaser poster for the movie, something as a simple as a Hobbit hole or picture of Bilbo. This should come out in November timeframe.

Then release the first teaser trailer with Sherlock Holmes (Warners) in mid-December. Something simple and doesn't show too much.

I don't think it needs a Superbowl push, perhaps a good preview showing at Cannes like FOTR will do.

Then the first Theatrical Trailer with The Dark Knight Rises in mid-July coupled with an all out assault at Comic-Con.

Theatrical Poster to debut in October/November followed by the final Theatrical Trailer in November on something like James Bond.

Something like....

...and these

Glory days Arch - I remember when those teasers and posters came out. Can't believe its a decade already.

Agree with your marketing strategy. So far they are doing things right - certainly far better than TDKR.

Maybe Kiwis are just less obsessed with leaking spy pictures and audio clips? Not to mention, where TDKR is very urban, The Hobbit is probably mostly being filmed in studio or in remote locations.

In agreement with the last sentence. Plus The Hobbit this time around is going to be mostly indoors...unfortunately...

Glory days instead and hopefully more glory days to come.

I want this to beat TDKR domestically, wouldn't it be a shocker if it did. LOL

I think you meant Glory days indeed there

I don't think Part 1 will do that, Part 2 though should top ROTK.

The Hobbit Part I will beat TDKR WW.

The Hobbit Part I will beat DH2 WW. Or else...

Strangely, i think The Hobbit Part 1 will be bigger than Part 2. Regardless of how good Part 1 is, it'll bound to dissapoint....

Or else what?

DH2's total is very big, $1.3bn+. The Hobbit needs to do $400m+ Domestic i think if it's to beat DH2.

I don't think THe Hobbit can beat DH2 overseas, it'll loose in Japan and the two big emerging markets.

I see $900m tops.

If it doesn't i'll be really dissapointed. The Hobbit is favourite to take out oveseas and WW next year unless it's been gazumped.

I see Ice Age 4 to be the biggest threat overseas and TDKR to be the biggest threat WW.

Angry face!


It will do $400m+ domestic. Or else... [see above]


Japan... maybe, but not by much. By two emerging markets you mean China & Russia? DH2 was big but not that big there. Those figures are toppable (is this a word?). Hobbit might do huge business in some big European markets, though. I (want to) see $1b+ OS.

This i agree with.

$1billion overseas will require FOTR/ROTK levels of breakout in the European markets coupled with $100m grosses in China and Russia. It's going to be difficult, it can't rely on Japan and UK to get to $1billion.

I see it playing out as follows in the major markets....the exchange rate will be a factor as well....i think HP7-2 opened in a perfect storm....the exchange rates will likely drop going forward comparatively.

I take back what i said about The Hobbit not being able to beat HP7-2 in the two emerging markets, it's probably going to destroy HP7-2 in Russia HP7-2 has only made $36m there and will top out with less than $40m.

HP7-2 vs. The Hobbit Part 1

Japan - $125m vs. $85m
United Kingdom - $120m vs. $110m
Germany - $78m vs. $90m
China - $70m vs. $60m
France - $68m vs. $50m
Australia - $55m vs. $50m
Russia - $38m vs. $45m
Brazil - $37m vs. $25m
Mexico - $36m vs. $25m
South Korea - $34m vs. $40m
Italy - $34m vs. $35m
Spain - $24m vs. $30m

Major markets where i see The Hobbit winning are Germany, Russia, South Korea. Markets its bound to loose are Japan, UK, France, Brazil and Mexico. The rest is fair game.

Now, if it breakouts and gross $100m in China or $70m in Russia....then different story. But it'll need to make up for what will surely be lower grosses in Latin America and potentially the smaller Asian markets.

I want to see Transformers 3 type breakout in China and Pirates 4 type breakout in Russia. If it hits $150m+ in China like Transformers 3 then $1billion is definately in play.

With the way the economy is going in the USA, i don't see the US dollar gaining strength anytime soon.

Inflation and more favorable exchange rates alone would put ROTK over a billion OS today, add 3D (unlike DH2, native 3D with double the framerates - a new visual fidelity) and no, Hobbit would not require a ROTK type run, admissions wise.

Getting anywhere near admissions of the previous three LOTRs is going to be very difficult. There's no way for example it'll get to the levels of FOTR in Germany.

It might break 10 million tickets, though.

I'm usually rather conservative in my predictions but not this time, just for the heck of it. I've decided Hobbit Part 1 will make $400m+ domestic and $1b+ overseas. If i'm wrong... wouldn't be the first time but if i'm right... ah, it'd be sweet (the rubbing it in )!