Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus
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Corpse
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 Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast July 30-31, 2011
Weekend Forecast
1 - Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) NEW
2 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 3
3 - Cars 2 (Walt Disney) NEW
4 2 Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) Week 3
5 3 From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 3
6 - Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison (Toho) NEW
7 4 Nintama Rantarou! Live Action Movie! (Warner Bros.) Week 2
8 5 Rock: Wanko no Shima (Toho) Week 2
9 6 Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) Week 6
10 - Season of the Witch (Kadokawa Pictures) NEW
Transformers: Dark of the Moon opens on a Friday (today), so it's weekend is going to be deflated a little bit, so there is a chance Potter takes a third weekend in first place.
Revenge of the Fallen opened at #2 (behind the 4th weekend of Rookies) to 562 million yen ($5.8 million) in 2009, but that was a Saturday release.
Friday usually represents 15/20% of the 3-day Total, so I'm predicting a 2-day Opening Weekend gross of 450/500 million yen ($5.8-6.4 million); 325-350,000 admissions , and a 3-day Total of 550-625 million yen ($7-8 million); 425-450,000 admissions.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 450/500 million yen ($5.8-6.4 million); 315-340,000 admissions. 17-Day Total exceeding 5 billion yen ($64 million); 3.5 million admissions.
Cars 2 - 350/400 million yen ($4.5-5 million); 250-300,000 admissions.
Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes - 190/210 million yen ($2.4/2.5 million); 180-200,000 admissions. 16-day Total of 1.8 billion yen ($23/24 million); 1.7 million admissions.
From Kokuriko Hill - 190/210 million yen ($2.4/2.5 million); 145-165,000 admissions. 16-day Total of 1.7 billion yen ($20/21 million); 1.3 million admissions.
Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison - 140/160 million yen ($2 million); 120-130,000 admissions.
Season of the Witch - 40/50 million yen ($550,000); 30-40,000 admissions.
In previous years, the last weekend of July has been very strong, so hopefully we see some better than expected holds after last weekend's rough drops.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:20 pm |
 
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast So how many 3D screens is TF3 getting? Also is there any drop in HP's 3D screens ?
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| Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:34 pm |
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Corpse
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast Screen counts are really difficult to come by, usually only available in articles about a specific film. I have not seen any on Transformers yet.
However, Harry Potter will lose some screens, but it'll be very few. In general, films don't see any significant screen loss until 4 or more weeks in release in Japan.
Most of the 3D screens for Transformers and Cars will come from Pirates of the Caribbean losing nearly all it's remaining screens (400+). Pirates finally dies this weekend after spending seven weeks at #1 (six-consecutive), and ten weeks in the Top 10.
Whatever Transformer's screen count is (should be about 700), 65% or better will likely be 3D judging by the 2D/3D ratio of other 3D films this year. So between 450-500 3D screens sounds like a reasonable guess at the moment.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:05 am |
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Mannyisthebest
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast so TF3 is heading to a gross around TF2 and higher?
_________________The Dark Prince 
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:42 am |
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Corpse
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast In Yen the gross should be mostly comparable, but it's definitely going to gross more than Revenge of the Fallen in USD (and possibly the original in USD, too). The dollar is near an all-time low vs the yen, and is still dropping today. Right now, $1 = Y77.14. The all-time record low is $1 = Y76.32.
If Dark of the Moon open to 600 million yen or so over it's first three days, it would gross over 3 billion yen (almost $40 million). Around this time in 2009, 3 billion yen was less than $30 million.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:24 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast Previous films,
Transformers
1 - 631,355,981, 631,355,981 616 1 トランスフォーマー
3 1 400,110,659, 1,602,637,923 618 2 トランスフォーマー
3 3 295,268,077, 2,849,492,755 592 3 トランスフォーマー
5 3 175,247,708, 3,211,862,542 560 4 トランスフォーマー
5 5 154,976,450, 3,542,581,861 517 5 トランスフォーマー
6 5 78,911,900, 3,724,848,624 394 6 トランスフォーマー
8 6 56,575,742, 3,844,467,593 363 7 トランスフォーマー
Final - 4.01 billion yen ($37.69 million).
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
2 - 562,657,227, 562,657,227 658 1 トランスフォーマー／リベンジ
3 2 323,554,666, 1,211,541,836 658 2 トランスフォーマー／リベンジ
3 3 223,795,442, 1,653,817,889 658 3 トランスフォーマー／リベンジ
5 3 140,535,887, 1,936,555,416 579 4 トランスフォーマー／リベンジ
10 5 66,330,723, 2,178,753,399 468 5 トランスフォーマー／リベンジ
Final - 2.32 billion yen ($23.97 million).
Dark of the Moon is the first Friday release, so it's opening weekend will be lower than it's predecessors. At least in Yen and Admissions, with the dollar being so weak right now though, it could open higher in USD despite the Friday release.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:06 pm |
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Corpse
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast dp
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast dp
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast dp  _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast Friday Data
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 43.6% of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2's Opening Day (Friday).
Deathly Hallows grossed approx. 405 million yen ($5 million) it's opening day, so Dark of the Moon opened with about 175-180 million yen ($2.25 million).
If Dark of the Moon remains tracking at 40-45% of Deathly Hallows Part 2 through the weekend, it should crack 700 million yen ($9 million) over it's first three days in release, giving it an opening weekend of 525-575 million yen ($6.8-7.4 million).
Let's see how it holds up on Saturday.
Top 5 Holdovers, drops when compared to last Saturday.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (-52.8%)
Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (White Version -17.7%), (Black Version -22.8%); (-20.2% avg.)
From Kokuriko Hill (-48.1%)
Rock: Wanko no Shima (-37.6%)
Nintama Rantarou! Live Action Movie! (-27.6%)
It's rare to get Friday data for holdovers, and I don't really know how to read it.
Given that Fridays are much weaker than Saturdays though, you can expect the drops above to be much better with the exceptions of Pokemon and Nintama. They'll probably be flat or decrease a little on Saturday. Since they skew younger, the bulk of their grosses come from weekdays (which includes Friday) this time of year.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:18 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast With that yen estimates looks like TF3 will have tough time increasing over TF2
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 6:51 am |
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Corpse
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast Not at all. TF3 will gross at least 1 billion yen more than TF2.
ScreenDaily says TF3 opened to $9.5 million (I get 739 million yen), but they never separate Friday and include it in the weekend gross, so that's the 3-day total gross. With the Friday data suggesting an opening day of 180-200 million yen, the opening weekend gross should be 539-559 million yen ($6.9 million - $7.2 million).
Remember, weekends in Japan are Saturday and Sunday only.
In Yen, that's on par with TF2 (562 million yen), but more impressive since it opened on Friday (TF2 opened on Saturday). In USD, it's clearly much higher because of the incredibly weak dollar.
TF3 is targeting 3.5 billion yen ($45 million), but could reach 4 billion yen ($50 million+) if WOM is good.
The battle for 1st will be very tight if SceenDaily is right, because they have Harry Potter doing $6.9 million (541 million yen), -21%, for the weekend. That's in range of what TF3 likely grossed.
Some weekend data should be coming in soon.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:35 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast July 30-31, 2011
Weekend Admission Rankings by LocationToho1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) NEW 2. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) NEW 3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 3 4. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 3 5. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) Week 3 6. Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison (Toho) NEW 7. Rock: Wanko no Shima (Toho) Week 2 8. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) Week 6 9. Nintama Rantarou! Live Action Movie! (Warner Bros.) Week 2 10. Super 8 (Paramount) Week 6 http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.htmlWarner1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 3 2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) NEW 3. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) NEW 4. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 3 5. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (White Version) Week 3 -6. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Black Version) Week 3 http://www.warnermycal.com/Sunshine1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 3 2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) NEW 3. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) NEW 4. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) Week 3 5. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 3 http://www.cinemasunshine.co.jp/The only major chain left to report is Shikoku.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:54 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast Is there any difference in ticket prices for TF3 and DH2? With these numbers it looks like DH2 will take #1 for the weekend with a great hold.
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:12 pm |
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Corpse
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Forecast The avg. ticket price for Harry Potter was 1471 yen ($19) last week, which is a little lower than other 3D films this year. So Transformers 3 should have slightly higher tickets. Toho is the largest chain (they operate 25% of all screens in the country), so placing 1st there is always an advantage. But Potter edged Transformers out at Warner and Sunshine, which probably balances out it's 3rd place ranking at Toho locations.
Shikoku's Rankings will probably decide it before the National Rankings come out. Either way, the difference in gross is going to be less than $500,000 going by ScreenDaily's figures.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:16 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings What happened to Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison  ? Beaten by Pokemon's dual's 2nd weekend, that's a poor opening. 
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:46 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:48 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings Yes but I thought that having 2 movies will impact on Pokemon's grosses. I like Naruto much more than Pokemon so I am a bit biased I guess 
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| Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:51 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings We got split winners this weekend. July 30-31
Weekend Ranking1 (1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) Week 3 2 (-) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) NEW
3 (-) Cars 2 (Walt Disney) NEW4 (2) Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) Week 3 5 (3) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) Week 3 6 (-) Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison (Toho) NEW7 (5) Rock: Wanko no Shima (Toho) Week 2 8 (4) Nintama Rantarou! Live Action Movie! (Warner Bros.) Week 2 9 (6) Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) Week 6 10 (11) Anpanman 2011 Movie (Media Box) Week 4 http://movie.walkerplus.com/ranking/japan/Admissions: 1. Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 369,845 2. Dark of the Moon - 363,912 Gross: 1. Dark of the Moon - 571,712,700 ($7.42 million). 2. Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 535,232,450 ($6.96 million). Transformers: Dark of the Moon's 3D share was 83.3% on 779 screens, the second highest 3D share on opening weekend only behind Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tide's 89.2% opening weekend. Transformers: Dark of the Moon's 3 Day Total (which includes previews on Thursday, too) was 818,920,400 ($10.46 million) with 526,856 admissions. Cars 2 had a great start, too, with 336,597 admissions for the weekend on 514 screens, to gross 458,162,750 ($5.96 million). An exit poll relieved 98% of it's audience consisted of families. It's going to gross north of $35 million. Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison opened with 110,722 admissions for 126,962,900 ($1.65 million) on 260 screens. This is slightly lower than past Naruto films, but six of the top ten films in release right now targets families or a younger audience. No other figures are available yet, but I'll post them as soon as possible. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:56 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 2011 Charts Updated Top Opening Weekends of 2011
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) - 1,301,851,375 ($16,433,512) 2 Day, 922 screens / 1,760,739,047 ($22,261,386) 3 Day
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - 1,209,024,468 ($14,795,098) 2 Day, 800 screens / 1,518,843,416 ($18,574,198) 3 Day
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - 937,409,329 ( $11,230,161) 2 Day, 872 screens / 1,176,047,329 ($14,476,812) 3 Day
4. Gantz Part I (Toho) - 592,823,905 ($7,291,734) 2 Day, 410 screens
5. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) - 577,624,255 ($7,315,828) 2 Day, 351 screens / 826,306,766 ($10,494,095) 3 Day.
6. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) - 571,712,700 ($7.42 million) 2 Day, 779 screens / 818,920,400 ($10.46 million) 3 Day
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - 555,151,131 ($6,704,367) 2 Day, 332 screens
8. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - 551,160,812 ($6,784,687) 2 Day, 375 screens
9. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 528,215,385 ($6,401,968) 2 Day, 440 screens / 943,963,032 ($11,440,827) 5 Day
10. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) - 458,162,750 ($5.96 million) 2 Day, 514 screens
11. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - 456,552,003 ($5,596,686) 2 Day, 907 screens / 540,659,903 ($6,630,405) 3 Day
12. Doraemon: Nobita and the Steel Troops: The New Age (Toho) - 446,318,074 ($5,445,080) 2 Day, 368 screens
13. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) - 387,537,657 ($4,867,487) 2 Day, 457 screens / 587,337,398 ($7,459,084) 3 Day
14. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - 370,124,396 ($4,418,878) 2 Day, 274 screens.
15. The Tourist (Sony) - 307,704,618 ($3,753,996) 2 Day, 338 screens.
Admissions
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) - 880,697 (2 Day) / 1,197,669 (3 Day)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - 773,184 (2 Day) / 986,455 (3 Day)
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - 766,633 (2 Day) / 961,035 (3 Day)
4. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) - 551,694 (2 Day) / 789,140 (3 Day)
5. Gantz Part I (Toho) - 454,220 (2 Day)
6. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - 453,618 (2 Day)
7. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - 423,675 (2 Day)
8. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 412,129 (2 Day) / 791,012 (5 Day)
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the Steel Troops: The New Age (Toho) - 399,139 (2 Day)
10. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) - 363,912 (2 Day) / 526,856 (3 Day)
11. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) - 336,597 (2 Day)
12. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - 325,667 (2 Day)
13. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - 312,850 (2 Day) / 370,024 (3 Day)
14. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) - 296,006 (2 Day) / 445,269 (3 Day)
15. OOO, Den-O, All Riders: Let's Go Kamen Riders (TOEI) - 261,502 (2 Day) / 360,065 (3 Day)
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:33 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36945
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings That's quite good number for TF3 and Cars2. Looks like similar to domestic numbers, Japan will also have photo-finish weekend  Looking at those USD total it looks like TF3 can make close to the original's $37.7m.
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| Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:41 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings With Obon coming up, TF3 will clear TF1's $37.7 million easily. The dollar is just too weak right now (less than half a perfect away from an all-time record low vs the yen) to miss that mark. A normal multiplier would get it close to 4 billion yen ($50 million). The original also happened to gross 4.01 billion yen.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:46 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings Summer 2011, Top 10 Predictions.
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 8.85-9.00 billion yen ($113-117 million), 5.78-5.88 million admissions.
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 8.75-9.50 billion yen ($112-124 million), 6.03-6.54 million admissions.
3. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes 3.90-4.20 billion yen ($50-54 million), 3.73-4.02 million admissions.
(White Version 2.05-2.25 billion yen, Black Version 1.85-1.95 billion yen)
4. From Kokuriko Hill 3.85-4.15 billion yen ($49-53 million), 2.98-3.21 million admissions.
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3.60-3.90 billion yen ($46-50 million), 2.39-2.59 million admissions.
6. Cars 2 3.10-3.40 billion yen ($39-43 million), 2.33-2.57 million admissions.
7. Black Swan 2.35-2.40 billion yen ($29-31 million), 1.8-1.9 million admissions.
8. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution 1.90-2.10 billion yen ($24-27 million), 1.51-1.66 million admissions.
9. Super 8 1.80-2.00 billion yen ($23-26 million), 1.44-1.59 million admissions.
Admissions are estimates based on that films most recent avg. ticket price.
I only have Pirates of the Caribbean beating Harry Potter because Pirates has already grossed that much. Potter has more potential to gross higher, but there is always the possibility it falls just short. It's going to be really close.
The projected totals for Transformers and Cars are based on previous installments (films in Pixar's case) and how they performed post-opening weekend. Inception is a great comparison for Transformers, both opened the same weekend, both having previews, and both grossing nearly the same over their first three days in release.
Same idea for Pokemon and Kokuriko Hill. Pokemon typically doubles up (2.2/2.3x) it's total after it's third weekend, and Kokuriko Hill has been tracking 42/43% behind Arrietty since it opened.
Andalusia and Super 8 opened against one another, with Super 8 performing better at the start, but Andalusia's late legs have been better and it's closed the gap this past week, so it should edge past Super 8. Super 8's legs have been quite weak overall, actually.
And the tenth spot will go to either Kamen Rider OOO: WONDERFUL Shogun and 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE Feature or God's Medical Records being released this month. Both could actually end up in the Summer 2011 Top 10.
Previous Double Features of Kamen Rider/Sentai Gokaiger grossed almost 2 billion yen, so expect something similar or possibly slightly more with this year's film being in 3D. And God's Medical Record is a wild card. Comparable films have grossed over 2 billion yen.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:57 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36945
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 7/30-31, Weekend Rankings Corpse wrote: With Obon coming up, TF3 will clear TF1's $37.7 million easily. The dollar is just too weak right now (less than half a perfect away from an all-time record low vs the yen) to miss that mark. A normal multiplier would get it close to 4 billion yen ($50 million). The original also happened to gross 4.01 billion yen. Aah I forgot about Obon, so this is going to be the highest grossing TF movie in Japan and quite close in admissions to the original, looks good
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| Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:03 pm |
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