For me, this is the hardest movie to predict this year. It could go either way, outperform or flop terribly. The domestic side is not something i want to bet any money on, its just too difficult and unpredictable.

On Empire (magazine), Spielberg/Jackson remained quite optimistic. They were questioned about Tin Tin's lack of precense on the stateside and responded along the lines of original movies (although Tin Tin is not original, just not known well in the US) like the Pixar movies have done really well...

....though i'm not sure if you can really compare Tin Tin to Pixar which while mostly original releases belong to a high quality stable where audiences know at least what to expect (i.e. good fun for the kids and strong story that adults can watch). Tin Tin skews older to the teenage crowd and will be more violent.

I've got high hopes for Europe and European influenced countries like Australia/NZ (especially with Jackson' name linked), though i worry about everywhere else.

It just occured to me while looking at the December schedule, why the fuck are Paramount opening Mission Impossible 4 against Sherlock Holmes (WB) on December 16th and more importantly, 1-2 week from their tentpole release (with Sony), TinTin. It's madness, that movie needs to move badly. Sherlock will simply crush it and they both play to pretty much the same audiences (young teens/teenagers/adults).

Fox has already made a sensible decision by moving Rise of the Apes (whether or not Thanksgiving will do the trick remains to be seen but leaving it where it is will be stupidity against Transformers 3) so lets hope Paramount come to their senses. Is Mission Impossible 4 even ready? i would prefer that this movie be moved to Q1, 2012 and open in say March or early April.

BTW - It looks like the release date for Tintin is not yet locked, IMDB has December 28th while some other sites have December 23rd.

I said it a long time ago that M:I4 needs to move ASAP. It won't stand a chance where it is now.

If they can't string Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz together and get a hit....what chance does MI4 have against competition with only its loyal fans?

Global Release Dates:

http://www.tintin-movie.net/international/

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Is this the first time ever a movie has opened this early in one part of the world before the US? Tin Tin opens in Europe from the end of October and continues to The Middle East/Latin America/Asia from the beginning of November.

In Europe it opens in some markets just 1-2 weeks before Breaking Dawn (probably its only competitor from a blockbuster perspective). Movies like Puss In Boots unspool towards the end of November and Happy Feet 2 in early December. So there's probably not going to be a major clash. It's biggest comp (at least in Europe) is probably Johnny English 2 which opens from the end of September through to the end of October in Europe. Could be interesting.

The fact that TinTin is probably the first release of the holiday season (or lead up) could help it i think. We'll see.

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België | Belgique | Belgium 26-Oct-11
Bulgaria 4-Nov-11
Ceská republika | Czech Republic 27-Oct-11
Danmark | Denmark 27-Oct-11
Deutschland | Germany 27-Oct-11
España | Spain 28-Oct-11
Eesti | Estonia 4-Nov-11
Ελλάδα | Greece 3-Nov-11
France 26-Oct-11
Hrvatske | Croatia 3-Nov-11
Íslan | Iceland 28-Oct-11
Italia | Italy 28-Oct-11
Latvijas | Latvija, Latvija | Latviju | Latvia 28-Oct-11
Lietuvos | Lietuva | Lithuania 28-Oct-11
Magyarország | Hungary 3-Nov-11
Nederland | Netherlands | Holland 26-Oct-11
Norge | Norway 28-Oct-11
Österreich | Austria 28-Oct-11
Polska | Poland 4-Nov-11
Portugal 27-Oct-11
Россия | Russia 3-Nov-11
România 28-Oct-11
Slovenija | Slovenia 3-Nov-11
Slovensko | Slovakia 3-Nov-11
Srbija | Crna Gora | Serbia and Montenegro 3-Nov-11
Suisse | Switzerland (Fr) 26-Oct-11
Schweiz | Switzerland (Ger) 27-Oct-11
Svizzera | Switzerland (Itl) 28-Oct-11
Suomi | Finland 4-Nov-11
Sverige | Sweden 28-Oct-11
Türkiye | Turkey 4-Nov-11
Ukraine 3-Nov-11
United Kingdom 26-Oct-11

I really want this to make great busisness,

however I have not seen a teaser trailer or a poster in my theater, Paramount should start marketing this one NOW

No dates in Singapore/Malaysia yet. I think it should be releasing here with the WW release...still we will see.

Singapore/Malaysia - November 10

Asia/Pacific Release Dates:

Australia 26-Dec-11
Hong Kong 22-Dec-11
India 11-Nov-11
Malaysia 10-Nov-11
New Zealand 26-Dec-11
Philippines 30-Nov-11
Singapore 10-Nov-11
Taiwan 11-Nov-11
Thailand 10-Nov-11
Vietnam 22-Dec-11

WOW that's a full month ahead....but the chains here haven't yet decided? Where did you get this info? IMDB ?

Official site. Arch's global release dates post in this thread.

aah I see...I was too lazy to click that, I thought Arch covered all the countries there

You're too lazy, indeed, my post centered around Europe, you should have known better

We'll it's still more than 3 months away, i think they still got some time......movies like Johnny English 2, Cowboys & Aliens, Captain America still hasn't done much overseas. I think they're just waiting on the two juggernauts to clear (i.e. Transformers 3 and Harry Poter) before starting a massive European promo blitz.

In Australia, i've already seen the trailer attached to movies. Though no billboards, tv spots or print media just yet.

I think in today's market, you don't need to generate marketing promo this far out...there's just too much going on to do anything significant, you'll just get lost in the crowd and waste your money because audiences nowadays don't look that far ahead in terms of planning their cinema going adventures.

Now, if it hits late-August without any significant marketing puish then i'll be truly worried.

In Germany I have seen the trailer attached to many many movies so far. Certainly being well-marketed here.

Do you think it could snatch that #2 spot behind Potter this year in Germany? It's definately going to play well in Northern Europe that's for sure but i'm not too sure about the other regions.

It is definitely possible since no other film looks to cross 5 million admissions this year.

It would be fantastic if Tin Tin can do above 4m admissions in Germany. October November is not a bad time to release a movie....though i'm wondering why they don't bother waiting until December and releasing it worldwide.

It's not like Happy Feet or Sherlock Holmes will be much of a threat to it, at least in Europe.

I think it could make 500m WW. Europe will be very big and it will cross 100m at least in N.America. Asia's gross will hinge on well it does in Europe. Since half will open in November and the rest on Christmas weekend, it has the potential to do quite well. Latin America, I'm not really sure.

I don't think this is getting a China release though. Not after what Spielberg said about China before the Olympics.

So none of Spielberg's pics have released in China since this comment? i didn't even know

Indiana Jones was not released in China. I don't expect this to either...nor any of his movies in the future. He really pissed off the Chinese government/people when he pulled out of the Beijing Olympics as an artistic adviser to protest against China's stance on Darfur.

That's a shame, his movies will be missing out on the growth from China. I wonder how he can make amends, if at all.

Extremely doubtful. Not even an apology will do.

It's one thing to criticize China; it's another to pull out of the Olympics that you signed up for and use a global sporting event to spout your nonsense and embarrass the host country that you previously worked for.

Yes, the Chinese are many things but they definately do not forget. All the years of humuliation and bad mouthing, it's now China's turn to shut them up.

Action packed new trailer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEj3UsAl ... e=youtu.be