I think the question is what percentage of Pixar OW is made up of families vs adults/teens (without kids). Certainly the latter will suffer a little for Cars 2, though the former should be strong.

The real MTC/RS rule is that the further MTC is from RS (% wise), the more likely MTC will be between RS and actual. When they are close, it's a coin toss.

For Cars 2, without knowing any further info, the discrepancy is enough to think that the opening has a good (but not great) chance to go sub-MTC.

When you consider the disdain toward Cars among the internet community, I don't think BOM's poll is going to be of much use here. Of course, being the lowest is hardly a positive thing.

RS > MTC is also concerning. The latter may be going low because of what happened with Kung Fu Panda 2, but the difference between both sources is a bit great.

I'm thinking Cars 2 will end up between the two, but closer to MTC.

Everyone's talking about Cars but Bad Teacher is tracking very strongly. It's higher than RS going by the rule everyone's so obsessed with, and it can probably only build up momentum as the week goes on. For a recent comparison to Bad Teacher, The Ugly Truth was tracking at "low 20s" with RS, 26 with MTC, and opened to $27.6M actual...vs. Bad Teacher with "low 20s" RS and 25 MTC.

I still see it over 70. I would guess 74 right now.

Eh, unfortunately, MTC had Panda spot on, or rather the rule did.

BAD TEACHER should definitely break out. Really don't see how it could open below 24 Million.

I'm not gonna lie I WANT to see BT this weekend, but don't have the time and nobody to go with. It deserves to breakout based on the great marketing alone and I hope it does. This is seriously the only Cameron Diaz movie have ever wanted to see in theatres.

You didn't want to see The Mask or There's Something About Mary or Gangs of New York or Vanilla Sky?

On another note: The Art of Getting By is leaving all area theatres this weekend. Ouch.

You didn't want to see The Mask or There's Something About Mary or Gangs of New York or Vanilla Sky?

Well I was 4 when The Mask came out, 8 when TSAM came out and 11 when GON and VS came out, so even if I wanted to see most of those movies in theatres I obviously couldn't, but I have seen them all.

WOW surprising low for Cars 2 and great for Bad Teacher.

You can hardly see this as surprising though....we have had one or more animation every month since February and the grosses have been consistent all over.
February : Gnomeo and Juliet - $100m domestic
March : Rango - $123m and Mars Needs Moms - $22m (this if it gets lucky it will round off to that number)
April : Hop - $108m (adding this as the main character was animated) , Rio - $140m , Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil - $10m
May : Kung Fu Panda 2 - $144m and counting....
Total earnings on animation movies this year before Cars 2 - $650m

Last year we had only HTTYD and Shrek4 before TS3 came out.
Now I am not saying that families cannot spend much but the constant expense on animation might lead to some fatigue overall, the grosses will be more spread out rather than one huge grosser.

One major factor that contributed to the success of CARS is the theme of nostalgia (and the constant reminder of the good old days). This seems to be missing in CARS 2. Kids will still see it but older people will likely pass. With the help of ticket price inflation, I see an opening similar to the original.

Moviegoers not getting enough of Bridesmaids will visit BAD TEACHER hoping to find the same kind of fun. A breakout is in the cards.

My predictions:

CARS 2 OW $61 million
BAD TEACHER $31 million

Cars $65
Teacher $29

Looking forward to bad teacher.

I find it hilarious there are people justifying the MTC number.

Yeah, don't match your argument to the number.

Cars - 73.4mm
Bad Teacher - 26.2mm

Boxoffice.com is predicting $67M for Cars 2 and $25M for Bad Teacher according to twitter tracking so far. That sounds ok for Cars, but really good for BT. I have a feeling that it will be the real story of the weekend if it breaks out big.

I think Bad Teacher has $40 m possibilities. $20's is too low for it imo.

Oh shit!

Better make at least 25 now O has had his word. :p

Well the twitter buzz for BT is suprisingly strong. Outside of TH2 it's probably the most buzzed about R rated comedy they have ever tracked, so even $30M+ isn't a stretch at this point.

I doubt it. The film just isn't that good. Most of the good jokes are in the trailer.

Cars 2: $61m
Bad Teacher: $30.5m

CARS 2: $65m
BAD TEACHER: $26m

Guru predicts:

Cars 2: 65
Bad Teacher: 19

Green Lantern: 21 (-60%)
Super 8: 14 (-35%)
Mr. Popper's Penguins: 10 (-45%)

http://boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm

One of the lower BT predictions I've seen. Can't see it going sub-$20m.

RT is relatively surprising for a Pixar film.

42 Total Reviews so far.

40% for all critics
50% for top critics

Significantly Rotten at this point.

I know these reviews are not going to hold any significant sway regarding the opening weekend. Right?

It depends on how much the moviegoing public will be turned off by Pixar's first major swing and a miss. The Pixar name has earned tremendous respect for high production standards, so it's conceivable audiences may be turned off by the reviews. I know people are talking about the poor reviews for Cars 2 outside the Internet, and at the very least, must be taken as a cause for concern.