AUSTRALIAN Preview

June 23 - Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2
June 29 - Transformers 3 (Wed), Mr. Popper's Penguins
July 5 - No major releases
July 13 - Harry Potter 7-2: DH (Wed)
July 21 - The Beaver, Larry Crowne
July 28 - Captain America
August 4 - Green Lantern

It's been 10 years and now just 1 month until the release of the final installment. Let's take a step back into the past; beginning with November 2001.

2001 was a watershed year for Australian Box Office lead by two fantasy juggernauts. Philosopher's Stone as it's called here claimed the opening weekend (and screen count) record and was only the 2nd movie to open north of AU$9m (the other was Phantom Menace). It ruled at #1 for 4 straight weeks (blocking American Pie 2) until the release of another fantasy record breaker; FOTR opened over the Boxing Day frame. FOTR would go on to claim both the opening and yearly crowns with HP1 a close second. It was the first time two movies grossed more than $40m in one year (this is a feat which held until 2009 when 3 movies grossed more than $40m, more on that later). HP1 was the 4th largest movie of all-time at the end of the 2001 BO year, and is now 10th on the all-time charts.

2002 was fierce with Star Wars 2 claiming the opening weekend record (first to top $10m and $11m on opening). Spiderman opened a few weeks later and also passed HP1/FOTR's opening; becoming the 2nd to top $10m on opening. Those movies dominated the Winter Season here in Australia; grossing north of $30m. Emulating its release back in 2001, Chamber of Secrets notched the 2nd largest opening of all-time (behind only AOTC but just above Spiderman 1); however, experienced greater resistence in the form of Die Another Day which cut it short it's reign at the top to only 2 weeks. The attention however for the Summer Season was drawn towards the much anticipated release of TTT. While Chambers dropped slightly from Philosopher and failed to crack $40m total; TTT raised the opening bar to a mammoth $14m (a feat not surpassed for 7 years; and guessed which movie ended it...find out latter). TTT failed to top FOTR but still managed $46m (only $1m behind FOTR).

2004's HP3 had an appalling release date and remains to this day the lowest of the franchise in overall total ($33m). It had the misfortune of opening 1 week before the mother of all animated releases; Shrek 2. While HP3 had the lucrative Queen's Birthday long weekend (meaning Monday was a holiday) and claimed the 4th largest ever opening at $11.9m (topped only by TTT, ROTK and Matrix Reloaded) it was eaten alive by Shrek 2, down 66% in its 2nd weekend in the face of Shrek 2's $13.6m opening (2nd largest at the time). This was also the first time Potter failed to place inside the Top 2 for the Year (Meet the Fockers filled the void left by LOTRs).

2005's HP4 took the franchise back to winning ways, topping the year again (albeit very close battle with ROTS and Narnia, all within a $1m range at $35m). Goblet elevated the franchise above $12m opening and was the 5th largest opening at that time behind only TTT, ROTS, Shrek 2, ROTK. Goblet's 2 week run at the top was ended by King Kong.

2007 was a very strong year; with the Top 4 movies of the year topping $30m and all opening within the May-July portion. At the top was HP5 at $35.5m (the 3rd time a Potter release has risen to the top for the year), it beat out stiff comp from Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Simpsons. HP5 delivered another franchise topping opening with $12.87m but was gazumped by Simpsons' surprising $13.2m opening over the regular 4-Day frame. HP5 had a 5-Day opening (it opened on Wednesday) and made $17m (so if you count that, it was the #1 opening all-time at the time).

2009's HP6 was the movie which ended TTT's $14.1m opening recordl; Prince made $14.33m (and this does not include the fact that it opened on a Wednesday and actually made $18.7m by the end of the weekend). It did drop quite quickly though, down 55%, then 53% subsequently however the huge opening allowed it to return the franchise to the $40m total range (8 years after HP1). HP6 ended the year #2 behind Avatar's $116m and fought off Transformers 2 (also topping $40m and was $150k behind HP6) and New Moon's $38m. HP and Transformers are back to do it again in 2011.

2010's HP7-1 continued the franchise legacy of having bigger and bigger openings. It hasn't faltered yet. HP6's opening record stood for only 4 months; topped by New Moon's $16.1m and while HP7-1 was close last November, it came up just short at $15.3m; however things are looking good for HP7-2 to finally knock it out of the park (well, at least until Breaking Dawn ). HP7-1 perforned just like HP6 and also delivered a $40m gross; a smidgen above HP6, not quite big enough to beat Toy Story 3 but still a strong second and the franchise's 2nd largest release to date.

All up, the 7 movies so far have delivered in excess of $250m. 3 Yearly Crowns (2001, 2005, 2007), 2 opening records (HP1 and HP6), all but 2 movies (HP1/2) outside of the Top 20 all-time openers list, no picture less than $33m and 3 above $40m (tieing LOTRs in terms of franchise). Can you get anything more consistent? Definately not in Australia.

HP7-2 has pretty much everything going for it. Unlike HP7-1 and the majority of other Potter releases, HP7-2 opens on a Wednesday and what is sure to be a mammoth screen count. This will mark only the 3rd time a Potter release has opened on Wednesday. It's yielded some massive 5-Day openings (HP5 and HP6 all grossed north of $17m) and this time around could well be the first time we hit $20m in 5-Days. I'm pretty confident here we'll see a record breaking opening frame (both 4-Days and 5-Days) and possibly an opening day record as well. ROTK's $5.268m opening day is still at the top followed closely by TTT's $5.23m. The only other movie to gross north of $5m on opening day is New Moon at $5m. HP6 came closes at $4.374m and HP5's $4.1m and HP7-1's $4m was valiant efforts. Let's see whether 3D can make a difference. It's only competition is Transformers 3 and Captain America, there's hardly any notable releases in between HP7-2 and those movies so should allow alot of breathing room. Total wise, expect north of $45m and i wouldn't rule out $50m; i'm pegging this at $48m at this point time (which will be $5m above HP1's $43m).

Prediction: Harry Potter 7-2: DH - AUD$16.5m // AUD$48m

Avatar - AUD$11,962,308 // AUD$116m - 9.74x
Titanic - AUD$3,175,581 // AUD$57,644,334 - 18.15x
Shrek 2 - AUD$13,159,869 // AUD$50,121,453 - 3.8x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - AUD$12,752,305 // AUD$49,331,621 - 3.9x
Crocodile Dundee - AUD$47,707,045
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - AUD$9,757,556 // AUD$47,035,700 - 3.5x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - AUD$14,139,499 // AUD$45,588,777 - 3.2x
The Dark Knight - AUD$11,779,716 4-Day // $14,057,430 5-Day // $45.5m - 3.86x
Toy Story 3 - AUD$7,408,201 // AUD$ // $42.4m - 5.73x
Harry Potter 1: PS - AUD$9,249,505 // AUD$42,310,037 - 4.57x
Harry Potter 7-I: Deathly Hallows - AUD$15.3m // AUD$41.9m - 2.73x
Harry Potter 6: HBP - AUD$14,330,931 4-Day // AUD$18,705,212 5-Day // AUD$40,596,033 - 2.83x
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - AUD$13,647,361 4-Day // $16,294,847 5-Day // AUD$40,340,888 - 2.95x
Star Wars 1: PM - AUD$9,148,888 // AUD$38,828,310 - 4.24x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - AUD$11,215,765 // AUD$38,051,837 - 3.39x
Alice In Wonderland - AUD$10,377,137 // $AUD$37.6m - 3.62x
Finding Nemo - AUD$8,038,861 // AUD$37,394,203 - 4.65x
Harry Potter 2: COS - AUD$10,640,941 // AUD$37,379,563 - 3.5x
Australia - $6,373,903 4-Day // $7,781,155 // $37.3m - 5.85x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - AUD$12,355,237 // AUD$35,448,830 - 2.87x
Inception - AUD$7,428,415 // $35.5m - 4.8x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - AUD$13,359,734 // AUD$35,453,636 - 2.65x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - AUD$12,871,680 4-Day // AUD$16,973,961 5-Day // AUD$35.4m - 2.75x
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - AUD$6,642,424 // AUD$34,988,517 - 5.27x
Meet The Fockers - AUD$2,617,013 // AUD$34,975,476 - 13.3x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - AUD$11,961,798 // AUD$33,862,850 -2.83x
Shrek 3 - AUD$10,344,442 // AUD$33.7m - 3.25x
The Matrix: Reloaded - AUD$11,182,572 // AUD$33,624,930 - 3x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World's End - AUD$12,074,242 // AUD$33.2m - 2.74x
Harry Potter 3: POA - AUD$11,935,745 // AUD$33,030,534 - 2.77x

I hope it can outdo last film's somewhat pitiful performance here in Germany (admissions-wise). I mean that film couldn't even pass 6 million admissions!

Right now I see around 6,800,000 admissions. The franchise has lost a lot of its strengh after the fifth film which was the last to pass 7 million admissions.

This is expected to break all records of Hollywood films in India due to higher ticket prices for all formats i.e. 2D, 3D and IMAX. The last one disappointed at the BO. But this time it should be different.

And it's not like German's population has declined. Is it just piracy or are people no longer feeling that bit rich anymore because of the GFC.

Admissions takings in the past few years have been pitiful.

Pirates 4 has done close to $700m in 4-weeks, any bets that DH-2 will cream that in one month.

DH-2 is opening in pretty much all markets on opening week.

I'm so excited with the prospect that we'll see two $700m in one year (though had to see ROTK drop down the list...though it was bound to happen with these expanding markets).

Next year it's going to be Ice Age 2 and The Hobbit and possible Dark Knight Rises as well if it outperforms overseas. Ah the prospect,

wait,,,,, are Cars 2 and Kung Fu panda 2 gonna be released the same day???, if so, that's insane

While they'll surely eat into each others audience in the first week, the school holidays are coming up so they're both releasing that weekend to fully capitalise.

Kung Fu Panda - $5,230,383 (or $7,189,315 incl. p/v - 362 SC) for $25m total in Australian $
Cars - $4,301,936 (US$3,227,259 - 370 SC) for $17.6m total in Australian $

So you would definately have to give KFP2 the edge. Pixar features have never been super strong openers (they open in the $3-4m range though end up grossing $15-30m. Nemo is still the opening champion for Pixar to this day at $8m though Toy Story 3 has the overall total at $42.3m.

Ever since Nemo and Incredibles, Dreamworks have been doing consistently better than Pixar, all surpassing $20m with the Shrek franchise of course miles ahead of the rest here. Pixar's Cars and Wall-E both underperformed here with Up and Toy Story 3 bringing back the mojo.

How does everyone see the lead up buzz for HP7-2 compared to blockbuster endings such as Star Wars 3: ROTS and LOTR: ROTK?

There's still 1 month to go, and things seems to be sorta quite here in Australia. I think Transformers 3 is getting much more coverage than HP7-2 (though i did see the odd billboards here or there) here. Or it could just be me

Very quiet in Hong Kong. There's been more promotion for Transformers 3 and Kung Fu Panda 2. No cardboard cutouts yet. I've only seen a couple of posters but that's it.

Kung Fu Panda 2 opens after HP7-2 in Hong Kong

June 26 - Transformers 3
July 7 - Mr Popper's Penguins
July 14 - Harry Potter 7-2
July 21 - Kung Fu Panda 2

Cars 2 doesn't open until August apparently.

I still think they should move Harry Potter. Where...I'm not sure myself. They could try July 7 but it is very crowded with Bridesmaids, Popper's Penguins, Tree of Life and Beach Spike opening. July 28 seems ideal but August 4 will kill Harry Potter. Captain America, Wu Xia (unconfirmed) and Smurfs all come out. August is too crowded and is generally not acceptable for a tentpole release of this caliber.

Well there's no point moving it to July 7th because that'll be out of step with all other countries and 1 week ahead of its global release. At least on June 14th it'll have the week to itself until Kung Fu Panda arrives, i rather open first then open second (i.e. June 28th) and then be gobbled up another week latter by some other blockbuster releases.

Prates 4 is starting to stabalise already in its 4th week, the drops have been getting consistently better domestically and overseas. Looks like audiences don't really care how good it is, they just want another Sparrow adventure story.

HP7-2 better be careful because if you based it on the legs of the past potter flicks, it may be closer than you think for the top spot overseas this year. I think Potter's biggest playing card is the opening....it needs to be huge to assure $800m.

Pirates 4 at this stage is assured of $750m and is starting to creep up lose to $800m, it won't surprised me if Pirates 4 actually gets above $800m and closes around $800-825m. I think it's a lock for $1billion. It's looking to close around $235-240m Domestic and needs just $760m overseas....it'll do that with ease.

Interesting times.

What do people think of the HP7-2 Final Trailer and that of ROTS and ROTK:

HP7-2 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_kDb-pRCds
ROTS - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3Cdj3Gp ... re=related
ROTK - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7YllAOqpF4

Agreed with the post above..Potter is not a guarantee for OS total...interestingly I see a chance where 3 movies have all 3 different crowns this year.

Transformers for domestic crown marginally beating Potter with about $20-$30m
Pirates for OS crown beating Potter with about $30m-$50m
Potter for the Worldwide crown since both these movies will not be as consistent in either domestic an/or OS totals.

Interesting times...I remember last year Alice took OS crown from TS3 even though the latter won in domestic as well as WW total.

I still think Potter will win OS. Potter will do better in Europe than Pirates which will be the big difference.

Potter headed for 1billion+ int fo sho.

part 1 only did 659m overseas? damn, guess it'll be alot closer between pirates & hp7.2

But that's because HP7-1 was a bore to some people and it wasn't in 3D

I am not sure but 2 other big movies are releasing too close which might hurt it a little bit. I am sure Cars, Transformers will not release in all the markets by the time HP comes out so its legs won't be stable. HP is also coming from OS increase, which makes me think that the admissions won't increase as big. I expect $630m (it will lose IMAX admissions to 3D) worth admissions, with 3D about $760m OS total...Pirates currently is pacing for $800m-$810m.

Do remember that HP even though released in non-3D got IMAX screen advantage which weren't as strong of a force when Pirates 3 came out. Pirates has been doing better in OS than Potter increasing with each release.

This is still the last film and no way does it decrease from the previous film. I am figuring 700 million without 3D and probably over 800 with 3D. This will be huge OS and is still a bigger force than Pirates.

If this doesn't beat out the original in both domestic, overseas and worldwide then i'll be really surprised.

Cars 2 and Transformers won't hurt it, not in the same way Ice Age 3 or Transformers 2 hurt HBP. Transformers 3 will be huge on opening but will fizzle out faster, especially in the overseas markets where it doesn't have much clout (especially Europe). Cars 2 is no Ice Age 3 and has a more phased release anyway

Potter in the Netherlands:

HP1: €15.357.977
HP2: €13.613.274
HP3: €8.344.969
HP4: €10.086.939
HP5: €10.102.345
HP6: €11.337.066
HP7.1: €10.150.560

Couldn't find all of the grosses in dollars. Box Office Mojo had like, $13 million for the first one, which is clearly bullshit considering its gross in euros. Didn't bother to check beyond that.

I expect around €12 million for the last one.

It's remained pretty consistent, though quite a sizeable drop from the heights of the original. 5m euros is where most blockbusters gross nowadays in Dutch BO.

Here's something to compare against...

Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - €15,638,200
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - €14.373.610
Lord of the Rings: TTT - €13.586.566

Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - €10,525,314
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - €10,111,301

Can we see a return to the 15m euros, no movie has done so since Avatar which grossed closed to 19m euros (2nd only to Titanic's 23.5m

Can you post the updated Top 25 charts? I've lost track since 2009.

1) Titanic - €23.572.132 (3.405.534 adms - US$25m)
2) Avatar - €18,517,070 (1.721.915 adms.)
3) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - €15,638,200 (~1.92m adms. - 19th Week) - €5,923,885 (726.219 adms. in 2003)
4) Harry Potter 1: PS - €15.357.620 (2.179.559 adms. - US$13,391,178)
5) Lord of the Rings: FOTR - €14.373.610 (1.894.139 adms. - US$12,812,050)
6) Dances With Wolves - €14,119,111 (1.984.136 adms.)
7 Harry Potter 2: COS - €13.613.080 (1.883.577 adms. - US$13,840,551)
8) Lord of the Rings: TTT - €13.586.566 (1.749.361 adms. - $14,115,677)
9) The Lion King - €13.350.497 (2.562.797 adms.)
10) Harry Potter 6: HBP - €11,337,066 (1.357.884 adms.)

11) Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - €10,525,314 (1.492.700 adms.)
12) Jurassic Park - €10.133.641 (1.850.601 adms.)
13) Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - €10,111,301 (1.225.799 adms.)
14) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - €10,102,345 (1.322.163 adms.)
15) Harry Potter 4: GOF - €10,086,939 (1.350.786 adms.)
16) Alles Is Liefde (2007) - €9,909,615 (1.317.768 adms.)
17) Harry Potter 7-1: DH - €9,410,772
18) Komt Een Vrouw Bij De Dokter (2009) - €9,253,859 (1.210.002 adms.)
19) Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - €8,998,795 (1.134.645 adms.)
20) Finding Nemo - €8.761.346 (1.347.122 adms.)

I don't buy the last film argument...I am sure we saw the increase in admissions with DH1 because that was the start of the end. I don't see it increasing in admissions hugely.