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 HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions 
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Post Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
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Alright let's make this the official US thread for this.

Midnight sales, by what notfabio is saying, are matching that of Eclipse at the moment. Add 3D in there and I think this is doing a minimum of $30M midnights. It is yet to be seen if this can break the OW record but I think OD is looking very very good.

My guess currently for opening weekend sake is:

Midnights- $34 million
Friday (including midinghts)- $71.7 million (just shy of record)
Opening Weekend- $161.3 million (2.25 IM)


Last edited by jmovies on Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:22 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
How on earth will it make 90M after making < 38M without midnights. Potter aint increasing on saturday without midnights.

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Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:24 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
This one will have to do near $40 million in midnights if it wants the Opening Day record. Minus midnights, all the Harry Potter films gross in the mid 30's on Friday (or Wednesday). But I think this will be the first case (I think) of midnights being greater than Friday itself.

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Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:26 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
Corpse wrote:
This one will have to do near $40 million in midnights if it wants the Opening Day record. Minus midnights, all the Harry Potter films gross in the mid 30's on Friday. But I think this will be the first case (I think) of midnights being greater than Friday itself.


Well HBP did $36M minus midnights and DH1 did $37.7M.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:27 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
$30m midnights
$67m opening day
$136m opening weekend
$313m total


Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:44 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
I am sure this will do $40m midnights or very very near to it. The movie will have huge demand in IMAX and 3D formats.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:31 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
I bought my midnight tickets on Friday morning around 9am (the first day they were on sale) for the Regal Union Square Stadium 14 for the 2D showing and they were completely sold out within two hours.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:03 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
Also interesting, the Union Square theater's first official showtime (the 12:01am showing) is in 2D. The 3D showing has been relegated to the 12:02am showtime ;)


Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:12 pm
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Post Re: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- July 15
Didn't realize it was selling out a month before opening. I might have to think about getting my tickets soon. I think Midnights will be huge and it could do over 40 million. I remember the last Star Wars film shattered midnights so we could see something similar.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:16 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
I can't believe it's already selling out shows. I just checked my theater and the IMAX is sold out, plus one 2D showing is also sold out. It's one month away.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:20 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Looks like it is actually sticking with a Friday release. It wants that opening weekend record, I guess.

My current prediction:

Opening weekend - $146 million

Total Gross - $340 million

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Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:23 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Yeah I think they would have to move it by now. Maybe they can't get the IMAX theaters earlier or something.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:36 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
I think this can get the opening day record from New Moon... And still finish #2 for the summer. :twisted:

We'll really have to see how Cars 2 and particularly Transformers 3D perform. If neither can manage over 50% of their money from 3D, I don't think Potter will get the opening weekend record. It certainly won't get more admissions than The Dark Knight, but I do think inflation and 3D can put it over the top.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:44 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Even without 3D I don't think so Potter had a chance to top TDK in admissions, if it took OW record :P


Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:14 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Day 1 - Friday = $75m ($35m Midnights) *RECORD*
Day 2 - Saturday = $45m
Day 3 - Sunday = $32m
Opening Weekend = $152m
Domestic = $370m

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Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:56 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
^ While I do agree with those numbers I think the midnight numbers will be higher due to this being the last of the franchise.

Friday = $74m ($39m Midnights)
Saturday = $46m
Sunday = $30m
Opening weekend = $150m


Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:51 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Unless it blows past TDK OW, this is gonna have a hard time passing 340m, let alone 350m because of competition. It's closer to Captain America with a non-Wednesday release, then it has C&A, Smurfs and Crazy Stupid Love all on its third weekend which will pretty much cover all demos and so on. Keep in mind that the previous two films didn't pass 305m despite having easy competition (esp.HP7 Pt.1) in their third weekends.

155m/335m


Last edited by 2001 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:51 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
2001 wrote:
Unless it blows past TDK OW, this is gonna have a hard time passing 350m, let alone 340m because of competition.




Hmm?

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Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:56 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Dr. Lecter wrote:
2001 wrote:
Unless it blows past TDK OW, this is gonna have a hard time passing 350m, let alone 340m because of competition.




Hmm?


Meh, was too driven to downplay the film.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:03 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
^ While I do agree with those numbers I think the midnight numbers will be higher due to this being the last of the franchise.

Friday = $74m ($39m Midnights)
Saturday = $46m
Sunday = $30m
Opening weekend = $150m


I somehow thought that the midnight number was $37m, now I see this making lesser on OD itself.

Friday = $71m ($33m Midnights)
Saturday = $44m
Sunday = $30m
Opening weekend = $145m


Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:42 am
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
2001 wrote:
Unless it blows past TDK OW, this is gonna have a hard time passing 340m, let alone 350m because of competition. It's closer to Captain America with a non-Wednesday release, then it has C&A, Smurfs and Crazy Stupid Love all on its third weekend which will pretty much cover all demos and so on. Keep in mind that the previous two films didn't pass 305m despite having easy competition (esp.HP7 Pt.1) in their third weekends.

155m/335m


I personally don't think Captain America will effect it much. I don't see it making more than like 160.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:08 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
The hype for this one is deffentially through the roof and I expect a very frontloaded performance especially OW. I think midnight and Friday will take alot of steam out of it by the time Saturday comes, but obviously it's still going to have a BIG opening.

Friday - $70M ($35M Midnight)
Saturday - $44M
Sunday - $30M
Opening Weekend - $144M
Domestic - $330M


Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:12 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
BJs Official Prediction:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

Opening Day: 89.55m
2nd Day: 54.60m -39%
Opening Wknd: 189.95m - Fri: 89.5m / Sat: 54.60m -39% / Sun: 45.80m -16%
4-Day: 210.55m - Mon: 20.60m -55%
5-Day: 229.10m - Tue: 18.55m -10%
6-Day: 244.30m - Wed: 15.20m -18%
Opening Wk: 258.40m - Thur: 14.10m -7%
2nd Wknd: 60.95m -67% - Fri: 18.50m +31% / Sat: 23.50m +27% / Sun: 18.95m -19%
11-Day: 327.54m - Mon: 8.19m -57%
12-Day: 334.90m - Tue: 7.36m -5%
13-Day: 341.45m - Wed: 6.55m -10%
2nd Wk: 348.00m - Thur: 6.55m NC%
3rd Wknd: 31.05m -49% - Fri: 8.85m +35% / Sat: 12.00m +35% / Sun: 10.20m -15%
Wk-1: 258.40m - Wknd: 189.95m | Total: 258.40m
Wk-2: 89.60m - Wknd: 60.95m | Total: 348.00m
Wk-3: 47.35m - Wknd: 31.05m | Total: 395.35m
Wk-4: 26.15m - Wknd: 17.00m | Total: 421.50m
Wk-5: 15.85m - Wknd: 10.15m | Total: 437.35m
Wk-6: 11.35m - Wknd: 7.25m | Total: 448.70m
Wk-7: 6.85m - Wknd: 4.75m | Total: 455.55m
Wk-8: 4.30m - Wknd: 3.15m | Total: 459.85m
Wk-9: 4.20m - Wknd: 2.65m - 4-Day-Wknd: 3.70m | Total: 464.05m
Wk-10: 1.75m - Wknd: 1.35m | Total: 465.80m
Wk-11: 1.30m - Wknd: 1.00m | Total: 467.10m
Wk-12: .95m - Wknd: .70m | Total: 468.05m
Money Made After Wk-12: ~3m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 21
Wks at #1: 2
Days over 1m 40 (consecutive)
Days to 50m: 1-Days - 89.55m
Days to 100m: 2-Days - 144.15m
Days to 150m: 3-Days - 189.95m
Days to 200m: 4-Days - 210.55m
Days to 250m: 7-Days - 258.40m
Days to 300m: 9-Days - 300.40m
Days to 350m: 15-Days - 356.70m
Days to 400m: 22-Days - 400.00m
Days to 450m: 44-Days - 451.80m
Domestic Total: 471m
International Total: 1,005b
World Wide Total: 1,475b

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Last edited by BJ on Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:31 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
Holy shit, BJ.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:50 pm
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Post Re: HARRY POTTER 8 or is it HP 7 1/2? Predictions
lol


Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:40 pm
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