7 films have now passed $1 billion:

1 Avatar Fox $2,782.3 $760.5 27.3% $2,021.8 72.7% 2009^
2 Titanic Par. $1,843.2 $600.8 32.6% $1,242.4 67.4% 1997
3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $1,119.1 $377.0 33.7% $742.1 66.3% 2003
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $1,066.2 $423.3 39.7% $642.9 60.3% 2006
5 Toy Story 3 BV $1,063.2 $415.0 39.0% $648.2 61.0% 2010
6 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $1,024.3 $334.2 32.6% $690.1 67.4% 2010
7 The Dark Knight WB $1,001.9 $533.3 53.2% $468.6 46.8% 2008


What will be the 10th $1 billion film?

Pirates 4 looks like it will get there and HP7 Pt. 2 is highly likely.

What will be the 10th film to get there?

Transformers 2 did $836.3 m. There is a possibility for it to get to $1 b, but not a lock.

Will a 10th movie get to $1 billion this year? If so, what will it be?

Assuming Pirates and Harry Potter get there, I think The Dark Knight Rises will be the tenth film. It's going to have 4 years of inflation plus the huge Chinese market that DK never had.

And more IMAX screens to! Though Transformers 3 could explode OS due to 3D. Big franchises benefit a lot from it OS.

Transformers would need a bigger increase overseas from 2 than Pirates 4 has gotten from AWE (a much bigger increase in fact) to get to the 9-digit mark. I don't see that happening.

No. Transformers 3 is not strong enough overseas. I give it a 25% chance, because of 3D.

Next $1b film will probably be The Hobbit, the prequel to the beloved LOTR, the last of which grossed $1.1b almost a decade ago (by December 2012), and it has 3D. However, it features 13 hairy dwarves and a story that lacks the epicness of LOTR. I give it a 75% chance.

I see TDKR dropping domestically and i dunno how much it can grow overseas, if at all. Batman without the Joker (played by an actor that died "on set" no less) doesn't seem to have the same pull. On the other hand, the franchise has build up a huge amount of goodwill, the smallest snippet of news garners a lot of attention (it's the Internet but still), people might show up, even if it's for Batman twiddling his thumbs. I give it a 50% chance.

The Dark Knight Rises thanks to inflation and goodwill from Inception too.

Oh wait, I forgot about Ice Age 4: Continental Drift. It might just make it before TDKR. I see it making around $800 million overseas.

Ice Age is the real dark-horse next year for the yearly international crown. Harry Potter didn't hurt it when then literally opened side by side back in 2009 (and we know who won out that yea). TDKR doesn't skew as young and we'll likely see Ice Age wipe the floor with TDKR overseas through July.

$700m is pretty much a given with good $800m potential, TDKR i see to pass $600m with $700m an outperformance. The Hobbit i have pegged at $800m with $900m-$1billion being outperform, unless it surprises negatively.

you are forgetting Spiderman, which is well-known overseas, this one could hurt a bit Ice Age 4 and TDKR (OVERSEAS,,,,,,,,,,,,, domestic Batman will sweep both films ),, I guess

Transformers has not shot. The movies have never done that well in Europe or Japan. No way does it increase by that amount. I would say Dark Knight Rises. I think it will increase OS.

IceAge 3 was already in 3D and it got all the boost bcos of that. Why on earth will it again increase big after that. I think its OS potential has plateaued out except boost from dollar value. Anyway I am expecting IA4 to further decrease in domestic(closer to 150 like KFP2). So even 800M wont do it.

TDKR I feel should make 550M+ in OS with just china boost. So it needs 450M domestic to hit 1BWW. I think there is more than decent chance(though its far from lock).

agree, Ice Age 4 will reach the 900 million maximum,

TDKR must do it, despite of the hate of 3D films, I really hope this one comes out with this format, only to see it breaking records

Part of the next Batman movie has been filmed in India, so its box office gross is certainly going up there as well next year to help box office grosses overseas slightly. The Dark Knight did $3.7 m, but the next film should do a lot more...

Yes, forgot about The Amazing Spiderman, wow, 3 potential $500m+ all in one month. Something has to give you would think.

Spiderman 3 had a strong build up from 1 and 2, whreas The Amazing Spiderman is rebooting with a new cast and slightly darker tone. It'll surely beat pics like the Avengers overseas but not convinced it'll be strong enough to take on TDKR. I still see very strong takings in Asia, South America and deeveloping markets so am thinking that it'll top Spiderman 3 but not by much.

So...

The Hobbit - $350m + $800m = $1.15bn
TDKR - $500m + $580m = $1.08bn
Ice Age 4 - $180m + $800m = $980m
The Amazing Spiderman - $260m + $580m = $840m
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 - $330m + $500m - $830m
The Avengers - $400m + $380m = $780m
Madagascar 3 - $190m + $530m = $720m
Brave - $260m + $450m = $710m
James Bond 23 - $180m + $500m = $680m
Men In Black 3 - $180m + $400m = $580m

The sheer number of overseas potentials next year is just insane. Even the secondary titles such as James Bond, Twilight, Madagascar 3 are all proven $400m grossers. Titles which are slightly more shaky are Men In Black 3 and The Avengers could still do big numbers. Men In Black franchise have historically been very strong overseas performers (the original was a $300m+ grosser) so if you factor that in, even if it flops badly overseas, with the growth in the markets nowadays $300m looks to be a floor. Avengers if it follows at least the trajectory of Iron Man should also pass $300m. Brave, if it follows any other Pixar release should also be good for at least $300m. Also not discounting another Alice in Wonderland style breakout from Snow White and Clash of the Titans 2, should see some more $300m grossers.

Next year's slate is easily the best we've seen so far....i can't wait, the potential is just huge with TDKR and The Hobbit holding fort at both ends of the holiday season.

Transformers without competition might have had a chance but it will be releasing within a few weeks to Harry Potter everywhere which will open huge regardless of competition. Transformers legs will definitely be cut short with that and I see it doing almost the same number as Transformers 2 in OS.

Ice Age 4 has a chance to increase cause there were quite less 3D screens before in OS markets...very similar to IMAX distributions today. TDKR and The Hobbit can do it. I see all of these decreasing in admissions so about same as the previous ones with inflation.

I'd say TDKR has the best shot followed by Hobbit, then Transformers and probably Ice Age 4

The success of the last Ice Age film OS remains one of the most bizarre box office fetes ever.

@Archangel

I don't think new Spiderman will do that good. Not domestic, not OS.It's more likely $580m will end up as WW total than its OS total.

Agreed. It's a reboot. Think X-Men First Class.

Brave also has the shot for the 500m+, despite of not being the common disney princess film, it will be helped by Tangled success overseas

As much as I think TF3 won't decrease domestically, I still don't see it exploding overseas like Pirates 4 did. Though I still see it easily breaking 500m+ OS.

Poeple keep nderestimating Ice Age's potential overseas.

Pixar might rule the North American market, but Ice Age is by far the biggest animated thing overseas.

Fox has already started showing short movie(s) of Scrat and some franchise merchandise which keeps the anticipation alive similar to what Despicable Me marketing did domestically. I don't see it going as huge as IA3 but huge nonetheless

You do realise that Spiderman is still one of the largest franchise in the Domestic market? Even if it bombs like Shrek 4 or Pirates 4, it'll still hit $200m. I think it'll do much better than Shrke 4 or Pirates 4...and see it closer to $250m with the Independence Day slot.

I guess we will just see how it does.

Looks like the 10th will happen this year unless TF3 really crubmles domestically. It is already at $259,969,435 overseas and has China and Japan ahead. From those two alone it'll get AT LEAST $100 million. Meaning that the very least it'll get overseas is $600 million and worldwide the very very minimum is $910-920 million. The chances for $1 billion are currently at 75% I'd say.