really?? you see Cars 2 in top 10, I would be surprised if it succeed over there, I mean, the first film only made 12m+ there 5 years ago,,, wanna know if the Japanese scenes of the film are helping it...

and also,,, what is that???,,,, 2 pokemon films in a year????,, do not undertand??

Cars grossed 2.23 billion yen, which was only $12/13 million during it's run in 2006. But with today's exhange rate, 2.23 billion is $27 million. A major difference.

So with 3D, and Pixar being a bigger brand, I don't see why Cars 2 will do anything less than 3 billion yen.



Yes, two different full-length films opening the same day. And it's not a double feature event.

It's the first time two different films are being released at the same time. They're treating the films like the Pokemon games this time around.

The new films are the first based on the 5th Generation (Black and White), which were the biggest debut ever for any video game in Japan (2.63 million copies sold in 2 days). The ratings for the Best Wishes (Black and White) anime have been higher than those from the Diamond and Pearl seasons, too. So it makes sense to test two films with this generation after so much success.

Early advance ticket sales are indicating it's going to be a big success as well.

THANKS Corpse ,,,,,, nice to see Pokémon making money

You don't expect KFP2 to touch Top 10 there ?

There is a chance it enters the bottom of the Top 10 for the Summer, but Dreamworks sequels always disappoint (bomb). I'm expecting no more than 1.5 billion, which wouldn't touch the Top 10.

Madagascar - 2.25 billion > Madagascar 2 - 1.02 billion
Shrek 2 - 2.5 billion > Shrek 3 - 1.55 billion > Shrek 4 - ~1 billion

Only the first Ice Age film hit 1 billion yen, but I don't know the actuals, so here are BOM's USD totals:

Ice Age - 16.1 million > Ice Age 2 - 7.9 million > Ice Age 3 - 1.2 million (lol, bomb)

Kung Fu Panda grossed 2 billion in 2008. The sequel opens August 19th, and the latest from Pixar and Ghibli will still be playing strong.

Edit: Actually, no, KFP2 has no chance at the Top 10 this summer. With How to Train Your Dragon bombing terribly, Dreamworks couldn't be in worse shape right now. Japan has pretty much given up on them.

Weekend Forecast
5/28-29, 2011

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) Week 2
2. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) NEW
3. Black Swan (Fox) Week 3
4. Gaku (Toho) Week 4
5. The Adjustment Bureau (Toho-Towa) NEW
6. My Back Pages (Asmik Ace) NEW
7. Osamu Tezuka's Buddha Red Desert! Beautiful! (TOEI) NEW
8. Gantz: Perfect Answer (Toho) Week 6
9. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) Week 7
10. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) Week 5

Using past Friday openers, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I and At World's End, as a comparison, On Stranger Tides will have grossed around 3.3/3.4 billion yen ($41/42 million) after this Sunday.

While it's no record 2-week total in yen, no film has ever grossed over $40 million after 2 weeks before. Crazy exchange rate be crazy.

I'm going to start including predictions with the rankings for some of the bigger weekends from now on, so here are my predictions for this weekend:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 850 million yen ($10.5 million), -30%, Week 2
2. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 275 million yen ($3.4 million) NEW
3. Black Swan (Fox) 135 million yen ($1.6 million), -27%, Week 3
4. Gaku (Toho) 95 million yen ($1.2 million), -27%, Week 4
5. The Adjustment Bureau (Toho-Towa) 70 million yen ($.85 million)NEW
6. My Back Pages (Asmik Ace) 65 million yen ($.80 million) NEW
7. Osamu Tezuka's Buddha Red Desert! Beautiful! (TOEI) 60 million yen ($.75 million) NEW
8. Gantz: Perfect Answer (Toho) 50 million yen ($.60 million), -28%, Week 6
9. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 45 million yen ($.55 million), -43%, Week 7
10. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 35 million yen ($.40 million), -21%, Week 5

thanks corpse. Is that a good drop for Pirates considering market looks empty.

Yeah, should be a pretty standard drop when compared to similar films. Pirates made more during the weekdays than it's upcoming second weekend, anyway.

2nd Weekends with Drops:

Rookies: 1.048 billion (-14%) (last weekend of May)
Alice in Wonderland: 1.023 billion (-22%)
Pirates 3: 1.176 billion (-21%) (last weekend of May)
Harry Potter 7: 613 million (-34%)
Harry Potter 6: 622 million (-37%)

The last weekend of May has been kind to big openers. Being a sequel, Pirates 4 shouldn't drop under 20% this weekend, and also shouldn't be as frontloaded as Harry Potter. So -30% is a safe prediction.

Looks like $80m is pretty much lock with $100m now looking very good.

GO Pirates,,, thanks Japan for making the 4th installment that big

$100 million will be a lock if the exchange rate stays like this.

Projection:

Week 1 - 1.518 billion ($18.574 million)
Week 2 - 3.4 billion ($42 million)
Week 3 - 5 billion ($62 million)
Week 4 - 6.2 billion ($76 million)
Week 5 - 7 billion ($86 million)
Week 6 - 7.5 billion ($93 million)
Week 7 - 7.9 billion ($98 million)
Week 8 - 8.2 billion ($102 million) - Harry Potter opens
Week 9 - 8.3 billion ($103 million)

Total - 8.5-8.8 billion ($105-110 million).

As long as it hits 8 billion before Harry Potter takes the 3D screens (Pirates is only playing on 179 2D screens), $100 million is set.

This projection gives OST a 3day multiplier of about 5.7, which is normal for most big 3day openers like At World's End, Harry Potter, etc. June being without any major event film might give that multiplier a slight boost, allowing it to reach 9 billion ($112 million).

According to the data from the Usual Locations, a 30% drop this weekend isn't safe, it's way too high with a sub 10% drop for the weekend possible.

Drops compared to last Saturday:

Holdovers:

Pirates 4 (-9.4%)
Black Swan (-8.2%)
Gaku (-12.2%)
Gantz 2 (-18.9%)
Detective Conan 15 (-46.7%)
The Cicada's Eighth Day (-38.2%)
Hankyu Densha (-16.4%)


Pirates's daily breakdown was never released, but it is safe to assume last Saturday was about 650 million yen ($8 million) based on the 1.209 billion yen weekend.

So Pirates is looking at 575 million yen ($7.1 million) or better on this Saturday (yesterday). Which means the second weekend could very well hit 1 billion yen ($12.4 million). It's no record second weekend in yen, but that would be the biggest second weekend ever in USD.

Pirates is looking like it may clear 3.5 billion yen ($43 million) after 10 days in release. Maybe even 3.6 billion yen (almost $45 million). Both marks would be the highest 2-week total in USD by a comfortable margin. Many films have grossed $35 million+ after 2 weeks, but none have made $40 million.

Nothing on the openers yet.

Weekend Data from the Usual Locations, drops compared to last weekend:

Openers:

Princess Toyotomi: 34.7% over Gaku's Opening Weekend.

Holdovers:

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (-8.7%)
Black Swan (-6.7%)
Gaku (-17.9%)
Gantz: Perfect Answer (-16.8%)
Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (-44.5%)
The Cicada's Eighth Day (-35.7%)
Hankyu Densha (-26.0%)

It's clear now that Pirates is going to drop less than 10% this weekend, and will have a second weekend over 1 billion yen (which happens maybe once a year at best).

I'm going to predict a second weekend of 700-715,000 admissions for 1.060 billion yen ($13.1 million), and a 10-day total of 3.650 billion yen ($45.25 million). Biggest second weekend in USD ever by at least $2 million, and biggest two week total by more than $5 million.

I wonder if Pirates can make a run at 10 billion yen ($124 million) again with these results.

Also, Princess Toyotomi is overperforming and is grossing over 300 million yen ($3.7 million) this weekend, might even get to 350 million yen ($4.3 million). So 2 billion yen ($24 million) total becomes doable (likely).

Fantastic for pirates. As you say it has very little competition for 8 weeks. Can it beat Avatar?

Corpse can you post in yen/admissions for all potter films.

Nah, it would need 16 billion yen to beat Avatar in Yen (15.9 billion), and about 15 billion yen to beat Avatar in USD ($186 million). 10 billion is going to be the target between now and Harry Potter on July 15th, where it will collapse some 75% or more.



Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: 20.2 billion yen / Approx. 16.5 million admissions.
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: 17.3 billion yen / Approx. 13.9 million admissions.
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: 13.5 billion yen / Approx. 10.8 million admissions.
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire: 11.5 billion yen / Approx. 9.2 million admissions.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: 9.4 billion yen / Approx. 7.5 million admissions.
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: 8.0 billion yen / 6.45 million admissions.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I: 6.8 billion yen / 5.5 million admissions.

It's a dying franchise, but thanks to the exchange rate every year, the past 4 films have grossed approx. the same in USD ($85-90 million).

I'm thinking a performance similar to Order of the Phoenix for Deathly Hallows Part II. In gross at least, admissions probably won't be close.

Rankings by Location (Toho, Warner, Shikoku):

TOHO

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) Week 2
2. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) NEW
3. Black Swan (Fox) Week 3
4. The Adjustment Bureau (Toho-Towa) NEW
5. Gaku (Toho) Week 4
6. ?
7. Hankyu Densha (Toho) Week 5
8. Osamu Tezuka's Buddha Red Desert! Beautiful! (TOEI) NEW
9. Gantz: Perfect Answer (Toho) Week 6
10. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) Week 7

http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html

Whatever film ranked 6th is missing. The entry they have listed is labeled as NEW, but the title is nonsense and the link goes nowhere. I suppose it could be My Back Pages (Asmik Ace).

Warner and Shikoku will update later tonight.

It's going to be under 10%.

Pirates 4's second weekend (2-day) is on par with Harry Potter 7's opening 3-day weekend.

Below isn't every second weekend over 1 billion yen (I'm sure a few films from 1998-2001 would be on here), but it's the most complete list with available data that includes all films from 2002 to now.

Second Weekends Over 1 Billion Yen:

2004, 1　1　1,260,080,330 (-32%) 4,198,391,913　792　2　 ハリー・ポッターとアズカバンの囚人 (Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban)
2004, 1 1 1,249,833,081 (-16%) 4,754,046,059　450 　2 Hauru no ugoku shiro (Howl's Moving Castle)
2007, 1　1　1,170,215,604 (-21%) 4,399,480,824　873　2　パイレーツ・オブ・カリビアン ワールド・エンド (Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End)
2005, 1　1 1,082,814,567 (-19%) 3,621,541,435 831　2　ハリー・ポッターと炎のゴブレット (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire)
2009, 1　1　1,048,907,143 (-14%)　3,327,194,669　428　2　ROOKIES／卒業
2006, 1　1　1,024,964,165 (-20%) 3,601,251,314 855　2　ダ・ヴィンチ・コード (The Da Vinci Code)
2010, 1　1　1,023,543,457 (-22%)　3,536,898,695　877　2　アリス・イン・ワンダーランド (Alice in Wonderland)

On Stranger Tides is looking at about 1.1 billion (-7/9%) it's second weekend.

Of the above, Howl's Moving Castle and Alice in Wonderland (Golden Week boost) registered a third weekend over 1 billion yen. I highly doubt On Stranger Tides will do this next weekend, but it'd really be among the elite then.

A list like this in USD is annoying to put together with numbers varying, but On Stranger Tides ($13.3 million estimate) would rank first on that chart because no other film has grossed $13 million or more their second weekend.

5/28-29, 2011
Weekend Estimates



1 (1) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 1.105 billion yen ($13.68 million), -8.6%, Week 2
2 (-) Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 306 million yen ($3.79 million), NEW
3 (2) Black Swan (Fox) 169 million yen (2.09 million), -5.5%, Week 3
4 (-) Osamu Tezuka's Buddha Red Desert! Beautiful! (TOEI/Warner) 136 million yen ($1.68 million), NEW
5 (-) The Adjustment Bureau (Toho-Towa) 109 million yen ($1.35 million), NEW
6 (3) Gaku (Toho) 101 million yen ($1.25 million), -22.4%, Week 4
7 (5) Gantz: Perfect Answer (Toho) 53 million yen ($.657 million), -24.1%, Week 6
8 (6) The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 33 million yen ($.409 million), -31.3%, Week 5
9 (7) Hankyu Densha (Toho) 32 million yen (.396 million), -31.1%, Week 6
10 (-) My Back Pages (Asmik Ace) 26 million yen (.322 million), NEW

Obviously incredible for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. A drop below 10% is absurd for a film that opened over 1 billion yen last weekend, and for a sequel no less. I'll have to check previous films that opened to over 1 billion yen, but I'm pretty sure Pirates 4 just had the best second weekend drop of any of them.

Strong start for Princess Toyotomi. It should be able to achieve 2 billion yen ($24 million) with this opening.

After a somewhat disappointing second weekend, Black Swan rebounds very nicely.

Surprising debut for Osamu Tezuka's Buddha. A trilogy was announced awhile back, so it appears TOEI/Warner will go ahead with it now.

And nice for The Adjustment Bureau. It opened early on Friday, so it's weekend above is a little deflated.

Thanks Corpse. Do you think DH2 can reverse the downward spiral seen by all previous film. Is 3D alone good enough to do that. Plus how is competition for DH2.

Competition is pretty heavy in July (July 16-17 is going to set a new weekend record because they split Pokemon this year), but I don't think Harry Potter will be hurt by it much.

July 1: The Hangover 2

July 2: Thor (3D), Fullmetal Alchemist: The Sacred Star of Milos, Anpanman Movie 2011: Miracle Planet, Nanny McPhee Returns

July 8: I Am Number Four

July 9: Under the Hawthorn Tree

July 15: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D)

July 16: From the Kokuriko Hill (Studio Ghibli), Pokemon: Victini and the Dark Hero - Zekrom, Pokemon: Victini and the Light Hero - Reshiram

July 23: Rantaro the Live-Action Movie

July 29: Transformers: Dark of the Moon (3D)

July 30: Cars 2 (3D), Edge of Darkness, Naruto Movie 8: Blood Prison, Alice in the Country of Hearts the Movie


3D will definitely help Harry Potter see it's first increase over it's predecessor in gross, and being the final film, I expect an increase in admissions as well (just slight though).

Japan I think is the most 3D friendly country out there, every 3D film this year is making over 70% from 3D. Over 90% for Pirates. They don't mind paying $25 for those tickets as long as the movie is interesting.