COMICS 2011 (INTL.)
Thor vs. X-Men First Class vs. Green Lantern vs. Captain America



Where will this year's Marvel upstarts land on the league tables for their genre? Will they reach the heights of the upper echelons (Iron Man, X-Men, Fantastic Four) or plummet to the depths of lesser names like Ghost Rider, Hulk and Daredevil. Clearly, i'm not thinking any will come close to Spiderman or TDK levels

Spiderman 3 - $554,341,323
The Dark Knight - $468,576,467
Spiderman 1 - $418,002,176
Spiderman 2 - $410,180,516
Iron Man 2 - $309,623,643
Iron Man 1 - $266,762,121
X-Men 3: The Last Stand - $224,997,093
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $193,179,707
X-Men 2: X-Men United - $192,761,855
Superman Returns - $191,000,000
Fantastic Four - $175,883,639
Batman Begins - $167,366,241
Superman - $166,000,000
Batman - $160,160,000
Fantastic Four 2: Rise Of The Silver Surfer - $157,126,025
Batman Forever - $152,498,032
X-Men 1 - $139,039,810
The Incredible Hulk - $128,620,638
The Hulk - $113,183,246
Ghost Rider - $112,935,797
Batman Returns - $103,990,656
Daredevil - $76,636,200
Catwoman - $41,900,000
The Punisher - $20,889,916

Green Lantern isn't Marvel...

Shit! Yes you're right, for some reason i keep thinking this is Marvel, better change the title

Tin Tin is a comic and it will probably be bigger internationally than most of these. So this should probably be superhero comics then.

Very interesting Arch. I think this covers a lot of movie internationally.

X-Men should again do X-Men numbers with 3D. But one of these not including Tin-Tin will do good.

I think Green Lantern with Ryan Reynolds has the best chance since the lead actor for Thor and Captain America are not well known. Reynolds had pretty good success in the past couple of years.

Isn't it obvious that Tin Tin will smoke all of these 4 movies? There's already a seperate INTL thread for that one.

While its obvious that they won't big massive blockbusters overseas...I personal find this matchup between the four movies to be quite interesting, i can't choose between them who will be #1 and in which markets.

Maybe I'm crazy, but one of these (considering its title) leaps out as having by far the least foreign appeal...

So far none of those four looks like it could exceed 1m admissions in Germany...

Thor might do the most overseas (more specifically, Europe) simply because of the connection to north mythology.

You're not crazy. No one is saying these four movies will do big overseas. The in-fighting amongst comic book films is where the fun is at.

BTW - was just thinking, G.I.Joe's $152,267,519 overseas tally might be a good barometer for these movies. G.I.Joe as well is mainly a US property.

That number seems quite appropriate but I think all of these should cross that mark in OS markets. I was thinking to put this as a disappointing benchamrk , but yeah this seems to be a pretty good number for now.

I agree.

Though X-Men might win too thanks to brand name recognition.

Thor, with it's Norse mythology, should lead internationally. If it falters, X-Men would take it.

I actually think they will all do well but get dwarfed by everything else doing exponentially better.

The domestic market's upper hand has come and gone. Only comedies that skew American will get a larger % or select other breakouts otherwise OS is absolutely killing domestic.

This year already both Green Hornet and Season of the Witch have made more than 50% OS and they've not finished yet.

Last year 2 films in the top 25 had less than 50% OS: Iron Man 2 & Grown Ups. Extend that further to the top 50 and we get Valentine's Day, Other Guys, Jackass 3D, True Grit, Book of Eli, Date Night and the Town. Yogi Bear hasn't begun its run much and King's Speech and Black Swan even look like beating their impressive domestic grosses. True Grit won't but it hasn't moved into many markets as well.

X-Men will surely have a greater OS % and one could argue Thor as well and if Thor sets up CA, I don't expect there to be much difference maybe 40% OS to 60% domestic. Green Lantern will lose this for sure.

I'm still amazed at the surge in OS grosses, even movies like Love & Other Drugs, Hereafter and Red have a greater OS %.

With THOR opening tomorrow in Australia, I think it's time to bump this thread up...

already damn u foreigners

Advance sales (for Apr 28) have already started for Thor in Singapore and Malaysia a week back....they haven't been as great yet

Well, today was opening day in Australia and I just got home from seeing the movie with friends.

I was pleasantly surprised at how good the movie was. Definately not cheezy at all which is the worst that could happen to a movie like this. It's probably the first proper super-hero movie that is set in equal parts earth and another world.

The VFX were really good and i like the whole Thor Loki rivalry. They did it well. Natalie Portman was good in this and her chemistry with Thor was touching. Movie wasn't that long, just under 2 hrs - it moved at a pretty good pace. Though looking back, they could've done a bit more to flesh out the bond between Thor and Jane, which was ultimately very important to both characters (you'll know what i mean when you see it)

For me, this is much better than Iron Man 2. While probably not quite on the same polished level as the original Iron Man, this one offers a different superhero movie which i actually prefer more. I like the whole sci-fi fantasy aspect to this.

I give this an 8/10. What a good start to the Blockbuster season, about time.

====

The session i went to was a 6:30pm Thursday session in the Melbourne CBD. It wasn't exactly packed though probably about 75% full. There's obviously a lot of moviegoers today seeing as tomorrow is the start of the extended 5-Day public holiday which includes Easter.

In addition, Thor is opening up against Fast 5 which had a huge opening day yesterday (US$2.4m - Wednesday). While i think Fast 5 will ultimately win out (Fast 4 opened to AU$8m over the regular 4-Day), i think Thor can get to at least AU$5m O/W or X-Men levels ($6-7m).

Thor IMO has the makings of a $175m+ Domestic movie. If its well received by audiences has an outside shot at $200m.

Darling Nikki:
Well, this is a surprising start for the first two big films of Summer 2011. Marvel/Disney's Thor 3D distributor Paramount opened on Thursday in Down Under thinking its Norse God would steal Fast Five's thunder from Universal which opened their street car racing pic the day before. Didn't happen. Day Two of Fast Five beat Thor by 38% -- $2.02 million U.S. dollars vs 1.5 million U.S. dollars -- even though both films are playing in the same number of theaters (220), Fast Five is only 2D so can't command the higher 3D ticket prices, and Thor's lead Chris Hemsworth is Australian. Universal is crowing that its Day 2 of Fast Five was ahead of Iron Man 2 and Spider-Man 3 and its cume there is now $4.43 million U.S. dollars. Meanwhile, also today, Fast Five's previews in Korea are running 34% bigger than Fast And Furious (the fourquel in the franchise). in North America, Fast Five opens April 29th and Thor on May 6th.
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

I'll be watching all 4 superhero films,,,,,,, I am rooting for Green Lantern, but I think that X-Men will lead the international charts,,,, still expecting a breakout for Green Lantern, but it looks doubtful, competition will be hard for it, Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2 and Transformers 3,,

Not unexpected, the Fast and Furious franchise here has gotten significantly bigger each installment, especially on openings. This one, with another 3 days to go will surely break $10m which is huge (only the big big blockbusters do this).

Thor's opening day of approx $1.42m Australian (or US$1.5m) gives it an opening day BIGGER than X-Men 3 ($1.38m) and Wolverine ($1.35m) and last year's Inception ($1.3m). It also beats Superman Returns ($1.26m) and all the other 2 X-Men flicks.

AUSTRALIA - Opening Day

Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $5.268m (Fri)
Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $5,230,286
The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $5,044,000 (Thu incl. US$1.6m/AUD$1.7m midnights - 466 SC)
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $4.4m (Thu incl. $1.5m midnights)
Harry Potter 6: HBP - $4,374,281 (US$3.4m - Wed - 485 SC)
The Matrix: Reloaded - $4,173,881 (Fri)
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $4,122,770 (US$2.09m - Wed)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $4,102,282 (US$3.5m - Wed)
Harry Potter 7-1: DH - $4,000,466 (US$3.9m/ 334,000 adms. - 610 SC)
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $3,554,412 (incl. $1.2m midnights - 534p)
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe - $3,516,000 (Mon)*Boxing Day
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $3,209,000
Star Wars 2: AOTC - $3,065,296
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $2,713,766 (US$1.95m)
Star Wars 1: PM - $2,619,887 (US$1.5m)
Meet The Fockers - $2,617,013 (US$1.8m Boxing Day - 323 SC)*
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - $2,647,486 (US$2,107,161 Wed - 457 SC)
Happy Feet - $2,416,030 (Boxing Day - Tue)
The Matrix: Revolutions - $2.4m (~$0.75m = 1am sessions)
Harry Potter 2: COS - $2,391,358
The Simpsons Movie - $2,301,134 (442 SC)
Harry Potter 3: POA - $2.3m
Fast Five - $2,300,000 (US$2.4m) (Wed)
The Dark Knight - $2,277,714 (US$2.2m Wed - 472 SC)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $2,262,510 (Wed - 422 SC)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $2,203,707 (600 prints)
Harry Potter 1: PS - $2,167,548
James Bond: Quantum Of Solace - $2,113,779 (incl. $2,030,066 Wed - 467 SC)
Sex And The City - $2,045,000 (452p)
Transformers - $2,033,471 (350p)
The Incredibles - $1,918,418 (US$1.4m Boxing Day - 417 SC)*
Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $1,899,000 (535p)
Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines - $1,836,208
Spiderman 3 - $1,805,133 (500)
The Da Vinci Code - $1,804,661 (US$1.3m - 561 SC)
Iron Man 2 - $1.8m (US$1.7m)
8 Mile - $1,761,130
Shrek 2 - $1,730,695
Spiderman - $1,725,463
Independence Day - $1,713,470 (US$1.1m)
Bruno - $1,650,501 (323 SC)
Spiderman 2 - $1,602,413 (US$1,105,341 - Wed)
Charlie’s Angels 2: Full Throttle - $1,468,014
End Of Days - $1,425,184
Thor - $1.42m (US$1.5m)
X-Men 3: The Last Stand - $1,379,741 (US$1.1m - 409)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $1,354,121 (Wed - 416 SC)
The Day After Tomorrow: $1,325,000 (US$910,000)
Australia - $1,307,853 (Wed)
Shrek 3 - $1,303,868
Night At The Museum - $1,303,298 (Boxing Day - Tue)
Inception - $1.3m
Superman Returns - $1,260,084 (US$919,000 - 407)
Meet The Parents - $1,236,144
Mission Impossible 2 - $1,236,144
War Of The Worlds - $1,199,947 (US$923,057)
James Bond: Tomorrow Never Dies - $1,177,707
X-Men 2: X-Men United - $1,164,786 (Wed)
Sex And The City 2 - $1,154,102 (Wed - 562)
Troy - $1,150,134 (US$819,000)
James Bond: Die Another Day - $1,150,022
King Kong - $1,148,174 (Wed)
Austin Powers 2: The Spy Who Shagged Me - $1,137,892
Bridget Jones: The Edge Of Reason - $1,127,201
Ocean’s 11 - $1,120,379
Gladiator - $1,068,933
Austin Powers 3: Goldmember - $1,062,977
Iron Man - $1,058,325
X-Men 1 - $1,035,551

Just for comparison Iron Man 1 which had a lower opening than Thor went on to gross $6.2m, pretty good multiplier. Iron Man 2 and Spiderman 3 which had bigger openings went on to gross $9.5m. X-Men 3 and Wolverine ended up at around $6.7m, while Superman Returns had a lower multiplier ending up with $5.2m.

Business is going to be pretty busy through the long weekend (with Sunday going to be bigger than nromal with Monday and Tuesday being public holidays)...so expect a multiplier at least as good as X-Men 3/Wolverine. Meaning $6.7m is probably the floor......also factoring in the possibility that those who have seen Fast Five over the first 2-Days will trickle back to see Thor...should give it a strong chance of around $7-7.5m.

All in all, what a huge start to the Australian Blockbuster season. Though there's going to be quite a few weeks lul until Pirates 4 which doesn't open for another 3 or so weeks....all due to movies opening before the Easter break to capitalise.

Great analysis Archangel, puts the opening into perspective. It is just being overshadowed by Fast Five, hoping for 7M for the 4 day.

As some have said already it's just overshadowed at the momment by Fast Five in Australia, that movie if it follows the trajectory of Fast 4 will drop pretty fast, that one had a 2.1x multipler finishing with $17.13m, below even movies like Wolverine ($18.7m), Iron Man ($20m) and not too far off X3 ($16.6m) and X2 ($16.4m).

You'll probably find that eventually there totals will not be too far off each other. I give Thor a good chance at $17m+.

Thor is gonna end up over-predicted by a lot of people. I don't think the buzz is all huge in the States.

17M is very probable.

livethedream, there is still two weeks until it opens in the states, the film is really good so expect good WOM to spread from all these international territories opening over the next weekend. Reviews have been very positive as well so that will help.