Yeah ive been saying $80m+ OW for some time now. This essentially has a day in May so its not unlike any real summer opener.

It could top POTC4 if that film pulls a bit of a Shrek 4.

100m is definitely a no. POTC4 maybe a shot if it disappoints. 80m to 90m good chance and definitely attainable.

$68m / $145m

The Rock won't do what the return of Vin and Paul did in the previous installment. I expect a slight drop in the OW, thus a drop in the final number. Thor and Pirates 4 will cut it's legs and I expect around a 2 multiplier for this one. The last one didn't have a big budgeted, large-scale action movie directly impacting it until 5 weeks in and despite all that didn't manage to post good weekend drops. This one is getting a direct competition on its second weekend (Thor) and then on its fourth week it's getting Pirates 4 which will be huge as always.

Well you also have to remember that Ludacris and Tyrese are back too and with those two this one will deffentailly have more urban appeal then the last. The last one mostly appealed to Hispanics and caucasians. The Rock also has some solid urban appeal too so things actually look alot more even if you ask me.

Lol, that's great, Magnus. Who needs politically correct anyway?

20m-40m worth fo sho

A bunch of us are planning to see this Easter weekend. All the gang dont go to see a film together very often - Casino Royale, 300, Transformers, The Dark Knight....

Are you seeing a sneak preview? Because the movie opens the weekend after Easter.

Jay it opens here on April 20th (a rare Wednesday opening).

Interestingly it goes head to head with Thor over the Easter weekend which is a 5day long weekend (Fri to Tues)....

A very odd release schedule indeed but school holidays commence today and end the Wednesday after Easter so I guess that has enabled some films to be brought forward.

APRIL 7
HOP
I LOVE YOU PHILLIP MORRIS (Melbourne only)
JUSTIN BIEBER: NEVER SAY NEVER 3D
RIO
SUCKER PUNCH


APRIL 14
DIARY OF A WIMPY KID 2
MARS NEEDS MOMS 3D (Vic, NSW, Qld)
PAUL
SCREAM 4


APRIL 20
FAST AND FURIOUS 5

APRIL 21
ARTHUR
MARS NEEDS MOMS 3D (WA, SA)
TEMPEST, THE (Limited)
THOR


Now I have to find time to also see Scream 4, Thor and Sucker Punch (aside from Fast 5)

Ah, I didn't notice you were in Australia.

55/120

This becomes the new, and final pre-summer. determiner for the state of the box office. If this also dissapoints, say 40/85m I say it's time to sound the fucking alarm. If it capitalizes on the incredibly empty (teen) marketplace, say 100/210m than I say we're in for a huge fucking summer. Either way, fuck needs to be in the assessment somewhere.

I hope it disappoints . Enough is enough. The last one sucked.

I agree, but MEH seems to place second behind disappointing this year so a 56/140 run would be more likely. Well, no a 2.5x seems high maybe some shit like 56/120.

The whole "I'm so bitter my beloved Scream didn't do too well, so I hope every movie fails" routine isn't very wise. The box office could use a no-spin-required success story, and if it's Fast Five...so be it, perceived quality or lack thereof be damned.

Yup. It's also infantile. At least I have good, well-thought and mature reasons to be happy about Scream 4 underperforming: Kristen Bell is in it.

Yes, I'm bitter . I don't care that much about the Box Office thriving if it's not going to be for the right movies .

While I do think this will do well but it seems that a part of its target audience is not showing up in theaters. I am thinking this will hamper its 80m as well as 70m OW chances. I am thinking something in the lines of 55m-65m now

Really? so every movie that releases in summer will be an event film, till one breaks out? I don't think it will be the year where sequels do out of the world numbers (I am sure they will do good though). I am also sure Fast Five would serve as the biggest OW of the year because of the frontloadedness of the genre, though if you are expecting that all the crowd that didn't go to Scream will go to FF5 then we are up for another WWW thread.

Ended its domestic run on 11th August with 209,837,675 highest of the franchise and the first of the series to cross $200m mark.

It is one of the biggest surprises this year (Bridesmaids and The Help might overtake it now).