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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Yes, everyone is hungry for more Franco after the Oscars.  I have mixed feelings on Your Highness' box office potential. The cast is strong, and Pineapple Express is well-regarded, but I'm not sure how broad this particular (fantasy) film's appeal will be.
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:08 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
I have mixed feelings on Your Highness' box office potential. The cast is strong, and Pineapple Express is well-regarded, but I'm not sure how broad this particular (fantasy) film's appeal will be.
Me too. I feel like as funny as the movie looks I just can't see the mainstream audience getting into the whole strange, fantasy setting. However, if Paul can do $13M opening weekend and that movie was about a slacker alien with Seth Rogen's voice then YH should be atleast good for $15M+ with a strong cast and good marketing.
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:26 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
I think it can do low 20s. I don't think fantasy is so much the problem as that isn't strange any more.
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:48 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Portman's Oscar buzz will do little for Your Highness. It's more likely to attract those looking for a glimpse of her backside, and even that's debatable. A $15-17m OW is all I see for it, especially opening against Arthur (which I can see opening under $15m).
As for this week, Hop's marketing strategy reminds me a lot of Despicable Me. I can't see how it doesn't open to at least $30m.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:07 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Michael A wrote: Yeah i don't see where that Your Highness number is coming from. I literally haven't seen a single piece of marketing for it yet outside of a few small ads on the corner of Rotten Tomatoes or Box Office Mojo. I've seen more TV ads for it than anything in weeks? Rolling Thunder wrote: Portman's Oscar buzz will do little for Your Highness. It's more likely to attract those looking for a glimpse of her backside, and even that's debatable. A $15-17m OW is all I see for it, especially opening against Arthur (which I can see opening under $15m). And I think this is incorrect. Portman's presence is going to help the movie connect with more women than it would have otherwise. She's obviously VERY fresh in the public's minds right now, and many of the ads I've seen are centered entirely around her character.
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:07 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Libs wrote: Michael A wrote: Yeah i don't see where that Your Highness number is coming from. I literally haven't seen a single piece of marketing for it yet outside of a few small ads on the corner of Rotten Tomatoes or Box Office Mojo. I've seen more TV ads for it than anything in weeks? Rolling Thunder wrote: Portman's Oscar buzz will do little for Your Highness. It's more likely to attract those looking for a glimpse of her backside, and even that's debatable. A $15-17m OW is all I see for it, especially opening against Arthur (which I can see opening under $15m). And I think this is incorrect. Portman's presence is going to help the movie connect with more women than it would have otherwise. She's obviously VERY fresh in the public's minds right now, and many of the ads I've seen are centered entirely around her character. We'll see. You are obviously more connected with the female demographic and she is undoubtedly a draw.
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:42 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
I'm with Libs on this. Also James Franco's sudden popularity coming off of 127 Hours has allowed him to really branch out with women. I know alot of women of different ages who want to see this just for him. That combined with Natalie Portman's HOT appeal could give this movie a type of edge that we have never seen for these types of comedies.
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Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:47 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
It is still a medieval stoner comedy and the only reason people are suddenly considering 20+ numbers is RS so I don't need to repeat how ridiculous that is.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:45 am |
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scream4news
Hatchling
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:49 pm Posts: 13
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
wrongturn687 wrote: RS 3/27
Posted by: Phatcat on Mar 27, 13:43
Hop: low 30s
Source Code: high teens
Insidious: low double digits
FUTURE
Soul Surfer: high single digits
Your Highness: low 20s
Rio: mid 30s
Scream 4: low 50s
Arthur: mid teens omg for scream 4, wat if scream opens for 54 million
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 12:11 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Yep it will have atleast a 20+ opening, but then drop off big time from there. Still if it has a 50+ opening $100M+ is guaranteed which is a BIG success.
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:01 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Yep it will have atleast a 20+ opening, but then drop off big time from there. Still if it has a 50+ opening $100M+ is guaranteed which is a BIG success.
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:02 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25433 Location: Classified
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Pineapple had a $12M opening day, but was ridiculously frontloaded. Your Highness will probably play out the same. This is an event film for the genre.
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:03 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
mtc
hop 21 sc 14 insidious 8
awful weekend in store again? fuck this.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 6:15 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Disappointed with the tracking. Hop looks to open under $20m based on this, which I totally didn't expect.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:47 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
That is awful for all three openers. Atleast SC is nearby.....but terrible for Hop and Insidious
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:57 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Hop is not opening under $20 mil. Fact.
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:28 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
MTC numbers look more realistic, I'd say.
It would be SO sick if Scream 4 opened to $50m.
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 12:36 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am Posts: 12119 Location: Adrift in L.A.
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Adjusted numbers are silly, but Scream 2's opening adjusts to $53m, and Scream 3's to $47m.
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 12:53 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
The Dark Shape wrote: Adjusted numbers are silly, but Scream 2's opening adjusts to $53m, and Scream 3's to $47m. And I really think the audience has only grown in the meantime, since Scream 4 will draw in everyone who saw the first three films (I mean, I was 17 when the first one came out, so I was really the target audience) plus younger audiences who either A) loved the first ones but discovered them later since they were too young or B) who just like horror movies. I think $50M is doable.
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 9:27 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
The reviews for Source Code are really impressive. Even if doesn't crack $20m OW, it looks like it will stick around. We've talked a lot about the disappointments this year (perceived or factual), but it's really great to see such solid adult-driven fare hitting theaters.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 10:01 am |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
The Dark Shape wrote: Adjusted numbers are silly, but Scream 2's opening adjusts to $53m, and Scream 3's to $47m. Actually the adjustments are closer to Scream 2 - 58 and Scream 3 - 54 (unless you're trying to adjust for 3D ticket prices, which I'm not). Those are remarkable numbers for any type of horror movie, let alone a slasher. Hannibal got 58 though it was more in the thriller category, and that was 2001. Hannibal adjusts to 85m opening - is that freaking insane or what? Of course we're in a new era, but I'm thinking 45 is the floor for Scream 4.
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 11:17 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
I'm a bit torn on Insidious. The marketplace has been devoid of a solid PG-13 horror film for some time, and despite a creepy, astmospheric trailer and generally good reviews, the rest of the signs are pretty weak for it. Anyone here looking forward to seeing it? They are pushing the whole Saw/PA thing pretty hard, but I'm not convinced it's working.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 12:53 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Insidious is FilmDistrict's first attempt at distribution. They seem to be associated with Sony Pictures (this article said Soul Surfer was to be their first release http://www.indiewire.com/article/soul_s ... ures_deal/ ) but yeah, I agree that there aren't many encouraging signs. As said, adult films seem to be the ones performing well. A horror movie like this will be driven by teenage interest, which is apparently not there. I don't think this will perform terribly, but anything over 10 million should probably be seen as a win.
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 1:25 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
It has an strong cast for a PG-13 horror film--Rose Byrne, Patrick Wilson, Barbara Hershey--which is why I'm interested in seeing it. Could its Internet ads be any more generic, though?  Metacritic was plastered with them yesterday. The grumpy child staring darkly into the camera. Yawn. In general, I feel they've dropped the advertising ball with Insidious. The trailer and TV spots are too fast and nondescript. They don't have a Big Scare moment people can remember. Just lots of rapid-fire vague creepiness. And advertising it's 'from the people who brought you saw Saw & Paranormal Activity' won't help much. For one, those two franchies couldn't be more different. And I figure the mention of Saw will elicit more groans than nods of approval these days.
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 1:28 pm |
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goodvibe61
Waitress in LA
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:00 pm Posts: 29
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 Re: April 1-3 Predictions
Talk of brand new commercial movies and their box office this weekend must take a temporary break, as for me my heart and mind will be on the returns at a single screen, the New Beverly Cinema in Los Angeles, where I'll be celebrating a very special (old man) birthday with a screening of Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair.
All shows this weekend are sold out. I'm thinking the per screen average at New Beverly should be fantastic. QT himself has already shown up a couple times this week to introduce the screenings, all four hours plus of The Bride satiating her blood thirsty revenge! The unrated, never before screened in America version of Quentin's classic, and now my opportunity to finally see this version is at hand.
Happy Birthday indeed!
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 6:35 pm |
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