Weekend Forecast

February 26-27

1 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) NEW
2 1 Gantz (Toho) 5
3 - Macross Frontier The Movie: The Wings of Goodbye (Klock Worx) NEW
4 2 Hereafter (Warner Bros.) 2
5 3 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 3
6 - The King's Speech (GAGA) NEW
7 4 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 3
8 6 Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) 4
9 5 Red (Disney) 5
10 7 Paranormal Activity 2 (Paramount) 3


I'm predicting:

350 million yen ($4.3 million) 2-day; 450 million yen ($5.5 million) 3-day for Narnia.
150 million yen ($1.8 million) 2-day for Macross Frontier.
100 million yen ($1.2 million) 2-day for King's Speech.

Sorry for the delay again this week. Everything will be back to normal next week.

Very good opening. I predicted 450 million yen for the 3-day, and $6.4 million would be about 520 million yen. That's going to be like a 25% drop from Prince Caspian in yen Opening Weekend, but 3D clearly helped this one avoid too harsh of a drop from Prince Caspian (which dropped nearly 50% from the original's opening).

Comparison:

The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe: 1,037,142,931 (2-day)
Prince Caspian: 551,867,226 (2-day), 806,491,738 (3-day)

Voyage of the Dawn Treader probably grossed 400-425 million yen ($5 million) for the Opening Weekend (2-day), which is should be good enough to get the film over 2 billion yen ($24.5 million). If it's not hit too hard by the many 3D films opening in March, then it may come close to 2.5 billion yen ($30 million). I'll predict 2.3 billion yen ($28 million).

The "about 1,000 venues" is very interesting. If that turns out to be screens, then it likely broke Order of the Phoenix's All-Time Screen Count record of 919. Fox was determined to not let Narnia disappoint here.

We'll see if Fox is satisfied enough (they should be with over $300 million OS/$400 million WW guaranteed now) to give Narnia 4 more thought.

Admissions Ranking by Location (Toho, Warner, Shikoku):

TOHO



1 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (3D) (Fox) NEW
2 - The King's Speech (GAGA) NEW
3 1 Gantz (Toho) 5
4 2 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 3
5 4 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 3
6 3 Hereafter (Warner Bros.) 2
7 - Morning Glory (Paramount) NEW
8 6 Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) 4
9 - SKE48 Concert Live Vol. 1 (3D) (Virgin Forest) NEW
10 - Macross Frontier The Movie: The Wings of Goodbye (Klock Worx) NEW

http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html

Warner and Shikoku to follow later tonight.

Reserved for Shikoku and Warner Weekend Rankings.

Weekend Admissions Ranking
February 26-27, 2011



1 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) NEW
2 1 Gantz (Toho) 5
3 3 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 3
4 - Macross Frontier The Movie: The Wings of Goodbye (Klock Worx) NEW
5 2 Hereafter (Warner Bros.) 2
6 - The King's Speech (GAGA) NEW
7 4 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 3
8 - Morning Glory (Paramount) NEW
9 6 Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) 4
10 7 Paranormal Activity 2 (Paramount) 3

Narnia opens to 456,552,003 yen ($5.56 million) over the 2-day Weekend with 312,850 admissions, and an estimated 540 million yen ($6.6 million) over the 3-day with 370,000 admissions. Narnia 3 opened on 907 screens, which is the second widest release all-time behind Order of the Phoenix (919 screens).

Gantz hit 2.8 billion yen ($34.16 million) after five weeks in release.

Miracle Man of the Pacific exceeded 1 million admissions.

Macross Frontier The Movie opened to 117,803,100 yen ($1.44 million) with 81,772 admissions on only 38 screens. A $38,000 psa, very, very impressive.

The King's Speech opens to 100,369,100 yen ($1.22 million) with 77,710 admissions on 107 screens. Great opening to what will become a very leggy run after winning big at the Oscars.

Morning Glory opens with 48,999,600 yen ($.57 million) with 37,602 admissions on 193 screens.

At least four additional heroes from the 1970s will make cameos in OOO Den-O All Riders: Let's Go Kamen Riders, the April film which celebrates the Toei movie company's 60th anniversary and the Kamen Rider franchise's 40th anniversary. Kamen Rider creator Shotaro Ishinomori created all four of these additional heroes: 1972's Kikaider (Jinzou Ningen Kikaida), 1973-1974's Kikaider-01, 1973-1974's Inazuman, and 1977's Kaiketsu Zvatt (Kaiketsu Zubat).

This will be the first time that these four heroes have appeared with the heroes of Kamen Rider. Even though he has appeared in anime and videogames since 2000, it is the first live-action appearance of Zvatt in 34 years. This film will also feature all 28 Kamen Rider heroes from every series in the franchise. The film will open on April 1.

Last month, the Japanese film's distributor Toei announced that another 2011 film, Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Daikessen, will feature all 199 heroes/rangers from the 35-year history of Super Sentai, the Toei franchise that inspired the Power Rangers.

___________________________________________________________________

Multiple Kamen Rider films are released every year (they are nearing 50 theatrical releases), and they all usually open to a 350-500 million yen ($4/5 million) range, and finish with about 1.5 billion yen (mid/high teens).

The film opening on April 1st is likely to open and finish above the norm for the franchise, though, considering it's the company's 60th Anniversary and the Kamen Rider franchise's 40th that also includes every Rider from the franchise's long history.

Updated Estimated Totals (Holdovers)

Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) - 3.12 billion yen ($38.21 million) after 67 days in release.
Gantz (Toho) - 2.84 billion yen ($34.68 million) after 30 days in release.
The Social Network (Sony) - 1.3 billion yen ($15.86 million) after 44 days in release.
1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) - 1.16 billion yen ($14.15 million) after 44 days in release.
Red (Disney) - 1.15 billion yen ($14.03 million) after 30 days in release.
Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) - 1.13 billion yen ($13.79 million) after 17 days in release.

Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) - 810 million yen ($9.89 million) after 17 days in release.
The Green Hornet (Sony) - 560 million yen ($6.83 million) after 35 days in release.
Wall Street 2 (Fox) - 510 million yen ($6.22 million) after 24 days in release.
Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) - 510 million yen ($6.22 million) after 23 days in release.
Hereafter (Warner Bros.) - 450 million yen ($5.50 million) after 9 days in release.
White Night (GAGA) - 390 million yen ($4.76 million) after 28 days in release.
Paranormal Activity 2 (Paramount) - 320 million yen ($3.90 million) after 17 days in release.
The Town (Warner Bros.) - 210 million yen ($2.56 million) after 21 days in release.
Jeanne Waltz (TOEI) - 170 million yen ($2.07 million) after 21 days in release.

2011 Charts Updated:

Top 10 Opening Weekends of 2011 by Gross




Top 10 Opening Weekends of 2011 by Admissions




Top 10 Films of 2011 by Gross




Top 10 Films of 2011 by Admissions



Narnia 3 debuts in the Top 5 on the Top Opening Weekends of 2011 Charts.

Good numbers for narnia, now it should have no problem crossing 400 million ww.

I hope The Tourist can have at least a $4m 2-day.

Actually, that should be about what it opens to.

Knight and Day is the best, most recent, comparison.

Weekend Forecast
March 5-6, 2011



1 - Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops ~Angel Wings~ (Toho) NEW
2 - The Tourist (Sony) NEW
3 1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2
4 5 The King's Speech (GAGA) 2
5 2 Gantz (Toho) 6
6 4 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 4
7 3 Macross Frontier The Movie: The Wings of Goodbye (Klock Worx) 2
8 6 Hereafter (Warner Bros.) 3
9 - You'll Be (TOEI) NEW
10 7 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 4

March is finally here! The month is full of big releases and it begins today.

The Doraemon films normally open a little over 400 million yen every year, with the occasional 500 million yen+ film (special events). So it's a safe to predict it coming out on top this weekend with something in the range of 400/500 million yen ($5/6 million). This year's film (the 31st film of the franchise) is also a remake of the 1986 original.

The Tourist is in great shape, and the recent premiere with Depp visiting will only help it this weekend. I'm thinking 300 million yen or a little higher ($3.5-4 million), which should be just enough to get it ahead of Narnia's second weekend.

And expect a big increase this weekend for The King's Speech after it's big Oscar wins, and for Gantz to clear 3 billion yen (about $37 million) after 6 weeks in release.

The official site of Goro Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli's Kokuriko-Zaka Kara anime film confirmed on Saturday that the distributor TOHO will release the film nationwide in Japan on July 16. The film adapts Tetsurō Sayama and Chizuru Takahashi's shōjo manga of the same name.
___________________________________________



The July 16-17 Weekend of 2011 is, without a doubt, going to be the biggest weekend ever at the Japanese Box Office with this news.

Wide Openers:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (opening early on the 15th)
Kokuriko-Zaka Kara
Pokemon: Victini and the Dark Hero: Zekrom
Pokemon: Victini and the Light Hero: Reshiram

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will finally end the downward spiral for the franchise and definitely be a big hit this Summer. With 3D, it shouldn't fall below 1.3 billion ($16 million) for the 2-day.

Kokuriko-Zaka Kara is Goro Miyazaki's second feature film for Studio Ghibli, and unless it's worse than Tales From Earthsea (doubtful with his father writing this time), it's not going to gross less than it. So here we should see around 800/900million yen ($10.5 million) for the 2-day.

And this Summer, for the first time, two full-length Pokemon films are being released on the same day (like the video games have been for over a decade), and aren't a double feature event. Both films feature exclusive characters and Pokemon for that film, so fans will turn out for both. Pokemon films normally gross over 600 million yen opening weekend, so both films could combine for up to 1 billion yen ($12 million) for the 2-day.

The minimum I see for the 2-day weekend from just the openers is $35 million, with $40 million doable.

Currently, the biggest Weekend is April 17-18th, 2010 when Alice in Wonderland ($14.2 million), Nodame Cantabile Part 2 ($6.1 million), Detective Conan ($6 million), and Crayon Shin-chan ($2.9 million), along with 6 holdovers, combined for $35.1 million.

The Tourist did big business on Saturday according to early reports, tracking over 50% better than Tron (not sure why this was the comparision). If it's true, and Sunday is similar, then The Tourist is probably looking at 400 million yen (almost $5 million) this weekend.

Wow, fantastic. Thanks for the update. Angelina and Johnny again proving their drawing power in Japan.

It could pull the upset and top Doraemon in gross this weekend if Doraemon opens at the lower end of the expected range for it (around 400 million yen).

And if The Tourist opens with about 400 million yen, it'll gross over 2 billion yen without much difficulty with a normal multiplier. A 400 million yen ($4.9 million) opening for the 2-day would probably give it 2.2/2.3 billion yen ($27/28 million).

Weekend Results from the Usual Locations (15% of the Market):

Openers:

Doraemon 31: 63.1% of Pokemon last year.
-This would give it about 400 million yen this weekend.

The Tourist: 49.4% better than Tron.
-More difficult to predict when the comparison was Tron because of 3D. If we go with gross, then The Tourist will make over 400 million yen this weekend, but if we go with admissions (not a problem with Doraemon and Pokemon since both share similar average ticket prices) then The Tourist will open around 350 million yen or so..

So it's not clear which opened on top yet.

Holdovers:

Narnia 3: -28.4%
Gantz: -24%
The King's Speech: +41.6%
Miracle Man of the Pacific: -40.2%
Macross Frontier: - 42.9%
Hereafter: -52.7%
Tomorrow's Joe: -38.2%

Some japan b.o news.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/r ... -at-164819

Japan engagements usually come late in most films' release cycles but the payoff is often worth the wait. Sony and other distributors' The Tourist opened at 349 screens in the market on the weekend and drew $3.75 million.

Another strong Japan run, this one for Fox's The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, generated $4.16 million from 910 locations for a market cume of $14.5 million over two rounds.

The Tourists skewed much younger than expected. Even using a lesser average ticket price than most films that skew older, it comes in below 350 million for the weekend. $3.75 million would be about 310 million yen. It's going to finish 3rd this weekend (but 2nd in admissions).

Narnia 3 held well, and I'd guarantee more than $30 million for it, but the next few weeks (especially next weekend) have some 3D releases that could steal some of it's audience and/or 3D screens which are contributing to more than 80% of it's gross right now.

Weekend Admission Ranking by Location (Toho, Shikoku, Warner):

TOHO



1 - Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops ~Angel Wings~ (Toho) NEW
2 - The Tourists (Sony) NEW
3 1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2
4 2 The King's Speech (GAGA) 2
5 3 Gantz (Toho) 6
6 4 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 4
7 5 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 4
8 - You'll Be (TOEI) NEW
9 9 SKE48 Concert Live Vol.1 3D (Virgin Forest) 2
10 8 Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) 5

http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html


Shikoku and Warner later.

Weekend Admission Ranking by Location (Toho, Shikoku, Warner):

TOHO



1 - Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops ~Angel Wings~ (Toho) NEW
2 - The Tourist (Sony) NEW
3 1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2
4 2 The King's Speech (GAGA) 2
5 3 Gantz (Toho) 6
6 4 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 4
7 5 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 4
8 - You'll Be (TOEI) NEW
9 9 SKE48 Concert Live Vol.1 3D (Virgin Forest) 2
10 8 Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) 5

http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html

__________________________________________________________________



SHIKOKU



1 - Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops ~Angel Wings~ (Toho) NEW
2 - The Tourist (Sony) NEW
3 1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2
4 4 The King's Speech (GAGA) 2
5 2 Gantz (Toho) 6
6 5 Macross Frontier The Movie (Klock Worx) 2
7 6 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 4
8 - You'll Be (TOEI) NEW
9 9 Mom's Daily Life (Shochiku) 5
10 10 Paranormal Activity 2 (Paramount) 3

http://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/cinema/ranking/

National Top 10 Admission Ranking
March 5-6, 2011



1 - Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops ~Angel Wings~ (Toho) NEW
2 - The Tourist (Sony) NEW
3 1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2
4 6 The King's Speech (GAGA) 2
5 2 Gantz (Toho) 6
6 3 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 4
7 - You'll Be (TOEI) NEW
8 4 Macross Frontier The Movie (Klock Worx) 2
9 5 Hereafter (Warner Bros.) 3
10 7 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 4


Doraemon opens to 399,139 admissions; 446,318,000 million yen ($5.5 million) this year on 368 screens. Down about 15% compared to last year's opening in admissions/yen (the 30th film anniversary film, so it one one of the few in the franchise to open over 500 million yen), but much higher than Saturday reports were first suggesting. Using last year's multiplier, Doraemon would reach 2.6/2.7 billion yen ($32/33 million) this year.

The Tourist opens to 240,835 admissions; 307,704,600 million yen ($3.8 million) on 338 screens. The opposite of Doraemon, being lower than Saturday was first suggesting, but the drop on Sunday brought it down to what most were expecting. Still a very solid opening, that with a standard multiplier would give it 1.7 billion yen ($20 million).

You'll Be opens about as expected, if not slightly better. It opened with 48,363 admissions; 63,356,900 million yen ($750,000) on 273 screens.

The King's Speech added 24 screens this weekend to increase by 30% from it's opening weekend with 100,894 admissions 131,824,500 million yen ($1.6 million).

I don't know if I was half-asleep this morning or what, but both the numbers (gross) for The Tourist and You'll Be above are different with the Weekend Estimates..

The Tourist even pulled out a very narrow victory over Narnia 3 (despite THR having Narnia higher for the weekend). It may have had some previews or midnights perhaps, but I didn't read anything about them. Looks fishy being so close, but hey, go Tourist.

Weekend Estimates
March 5-6, 2010



1 - Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops ~Angel Wings~ (Toho) 446 million yen ($5.45 million), NEW
2 - The Tourist (Sony) 335 million yen ($4.09 million), NEW
3 1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 334 million yen ($4.07 million), -26%, Week 2
4 6 The King's Speech (GAGA) 131 million yen ($1.60 million), +30%, Week 2
5 2 Gantz (Toho) 90 million yen ($1.10 million), -37%, Week 6
6 3 Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 64 million yen ($.75 million), -41%, Week 4
7 - You'll Be (TOEI) 54 million yen ($.66 million), NEW
8 4 Macross Frontier The Movie (Klock Worx) 47 million yen ($.58 million), -60%, Week 2
9 5 Hereafter (Warner Bros.) 44 million yen ($.54 million), -54%, Week 3
10 7 Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 20 million yen ($.25 million), -75%, Week 4

Ouch, some severe drops this weekend for the bottom of the Top 10. Toho must have cut the screens for Hereafter and Tomorrow's Joe to allow Doraemon and SP: The Motion Picture 2 (opening this weekend) enough screens. Toho does have many films in wide release at the moment.. or did.