Another year, another Best Picture simulation done. Thanks to everyone who sent in a ballot!

Why'd we do this? 1. To see what us movie folk would vote for Best Picture and 2. To see how the voting actually works for the Oscars. Last year that winner was Inglourious Basterds, with The Hurt Locker coming in second.

Without further adieu, here is the full simulation (the results for just the WorldofKJ ballots are at the bottom). There were 172 ballots spread across the following forums:

Cinema Discusso, general movie forum
Awards Daily, Oscars forum
World of KJ, Box office forum
IMDb message board, a realm of chaos somewhat resembling a forum

As is used in the Oscars, there is an instant run-off. So as each film gets eliminated, we move down to the #2 film on the ballot and the votes are re-calculated. So...if someone voted for Winter's Bone, and WB is eliminated for not having enough votes, their vote would then move down their ballot to the #2 film, let's say say True Grit. And then if True Grit is eliminated (or has already been eliminated), we'd keep moving down the list until they can place another vote. A film must reach >50% of the ballots in order to win. That number here is 87.

It actually sounds kinda complicated, but is a fairly simple system that is really easy to see with graphs. We start out with the initial #1 votes:




- 71
- 28
- 15
- 15
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 7
- 4
- 3


The Social Network is a mere 16 short of 87 and has a commanding lead that is most likely insurmountable.

Round 1

The Kids are All Right is the first film eliminated. As a result, the new graph is...



And it's votes are spread out as follows:

- 71
- 28
- 16 (+1)
- 16 (+1)
- 12
- 11 (+1)
- 8
- 7
- 4

Moving right along...127 Hours is the next one to get its votes re-allocated.

Round 2



- 71
- 31 (+3)
- 17 (+1)
- 16
- 12
- 11
- 8
- 7

Toy Story 3 takes over 3rd place. Winter's Bone out next.

Round 3



- 72 (+1)
- 35 (+4)
- 18 (+1)
- 17 (+1)
- 12
- 11
- 8

TSN not gaining many votes, Black Swan trying desperately to catch up. The Fighter out next.

Round 4



- 75 (+3)
- 37 (+2)
- 20 (+2)
- 17
- 13 (+1)
- 11

The Fighter spreads the love around. The King's Speech bites the dust.

Round 5



- 79 (+4)
- 41 (+4)
- 22 (+2)
- 17
- 14 (+1)

TSN gaining votes now, not looking too hot for Black Swan. True Grit out next.

Round 6



- 85 (+6)
- 45 (+4)
- 23 (+1)
- 20 (+3)

TSN just 2 shy; Nina has spotted the cliff. Inception votes will now be dispersed.

Round 7



- 90 (+5)
- 59 (+14)
- 24 (+1)

In a moment of semi-drama, nearly all of the Inception voters went to Black Swan! Wasn't enough, though, as The Social Network crosses the 87 vote mark and wins Best Picture (...of the Internet). Toy Story 3 comes up in 3rd.

For the WorldofKJ ballot, for the second year in a row, you guys had the most interesting race. The initial #1 votes had a two-way tie between The Fighter and Black Swan,. Black Swan ended up pulling out the race in the end with The Fighter coming in second.

Very cool. The result isn't surprising, though.

Thanks for doing this

Excellent chart. Thanks for doing it!

Yup not surprising...a bit regrettable that there wasn't more drama.

I was a bit surprised to see Black Swan in such a commanding second place, as well as Toy Story 3 in 3rd.

I'd also say as a general commentary that not enough people have (or had) seen The King's Speech, because I think it would do a lot better.

interesting stuff, I got how it works

Two years in a row, these polls have matched with my personal favorite film of the year.

Great job man. Very cool results.

Though the WOKJ votes are very surprising to hear. Will it be possible to post just those probably without graphs and just the distribution?