Hmm, I assume The Social Network, if it keeps picking up more and more Oscar buzz could be good for $20+ million?

Yeah, it's looking that way now.

The Social Network - 509 million yen ($6.2 million); 389,221 admissions after 9 days. That's an average ticket price of about 1,308 yen ($15.85), which is comfortably above the national average. So it appears to be attracting an older audience and/or playing heavily in Urban areas. What is even more fascinating is a poll released last week revealing 75% of Japan hasn't even heard of Facebook.

That's the only total available right now.

Harry Potter should be around 6.65 billion yen ($80.5 million) now, after 10 weeks... it actually looks as though it may miss 7 billion yen ($85 million) afterall. I'd declare it as a disappointment is that happens, losing about 15% of it's audience yet again. Warner Bros. might give it a late push for it to reach 7 billion yen though, the same way they did with Half-Blood Prince and 8 billion yen.

Space Battleship Yamato will have grossed about 3.9 billion yen ($47.3 million) after 8 weeks. It should add about 300 million yen or so more to finish with 4.2 billion yen ($51 million) or so.

Updated Estimated Totals (1/23/11):

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows I - 6.64 billion yen ($80.56 million) after 66 days.
Space Battleship Yamato - 3.90 billion yen ($47.19 million) after 54 days.
Partners, The Movie 2 - 2.63 billion yen ($31.82 million) after 32 days.
Tron: Legacy - 2.01 billion yen ($24.39 million) after 38 days.
Inazuma Eleven - 1.65 billion yen ($20.02 million) after 32 days.
Abacus and Sword - 1.35 billion yen ($16.34 million) after 58 days.
Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core - 1.34 billion yen ($16.21 million) after 37 days.
Norwegian Wood - 1.29 billion yen ($15.60 million) after 44 days.

Shrek Forever After - 960 million yen ($11.62 million) after 37 days.
Unstoppable - 860 million yen ($10.41 million) after 17 days.
Last Ronin - 780 million yen ($9.44 million) after 37 days.
Burlesque - 690 million yen ($8.35 million) after 37 days.
The Social Network - 509 million yen ($6.17 million) after 9 days.
The Green Hornet - 149 million yen ($1.80 million) after 2 days.
Documentary of AKB48 - 117 million yen ($1.42 million) after 2 days.
Tensou Sentai Goseiger vs Shinkenger: Epic on the Silver Screen - 114 million yen ($1.34 million) after 2 days.
The Story of You and the Dog: A Dog Movie 2 - 41 million yen ($.49 million) after 2 days.

No update on 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife for some reason, but it should be between 400-450 million yen or so after 9 days.

Coming Soon:

1/29
Gantz (Toho)
Red (Disney)
White Night (GAGA)

2/4
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Fox)

2/5
Mother Day (Shochiku)
The Town (Warner Bros.)

Only movies with 1 billion yen are included?!?! Going to be a short list.

57 films, which is the most since 2005 actually.

Weekend Summary
Jan. 22-23, 2011

USD
1. Social Network, The Sony Int'l $2,006,902 2 329 $6,100 +3 $6,169,549
2. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife Toho $1,888,890 2 315 $5,996 -2 $6,103,334
3. Green Hornet, The Sony Int'l $1,809,111 1 459 $3,941 0 $1,809,111
4. Goseijger Vs Shinkenger TOEI $1,381,698 1 255 $5,418 0 $1,381,698
5. Partners, the Movie 2 TOEI $1,250,572 5 328 $3,813 -16 $31,968,016
6. Unstoppable Fox Int'l $989,620 3 340 $2,911 -34 $10,526,690
7. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows I Warner Bros. Int'l $552,843 10 412 $1,342 -36 $80,480,775
8. Space Battleship Yamato Toho $530,382 8 340 $1,560 -31 $47,361,597
9. Inazuma Eleven Toho $526,933 5 229 $2,301 -31 $20,097,854
10. Happy Together -All About My Dog Asmik Ace $490,995 1 125 $3,928 0 $490,995

YEN
今 先 　　週末 　　 　　 累計　　screens 週　題
1　1　164,823,806　*,507,327,484　329　*2　ソーシャル・ネットワーク
2　2　155,848,999　*,503,575,291　315　*2　僕と妻の1778の物語
3　-　142,666,544　*,142,666,544　459　*1　グリーン・ホーネット
4　-　114,001,470　*,114,001,470　255　*1　天装戦隊ゴセイジャーVSシンケンジャー エピック ON 銀幕
5　4　103,182,446　2,637,624,493　328　*5　相棒　劇場版II　警視庁占拠！特命係の一番長い夜
6　3　*81,651,803　*,868,538,588　340　*3　アンストッパブル
7　5　*45,614,108　6,640,326,685　412　10　ハリー・ポッターと死の秘宝 PART1
8　8　*43,760,899　3,907,721,702　340　*8　SPACE BATTLESHIP ヤマト
9　7　*43,476,280　1,658,238,455　229　*5　劇場版イナズマイレブン　最強軍団オーガ襲来
0　-　*40,511,080　*,*40,511,080　125　*1　犬とあなたの物語 いぬのえいが

I really have no idea what happened to The Documentary of AKB48. It was in limited release at Toho locations only and grossed an est. 117 million yen (about $1.4 million).

Eiga's Most Popular Films (1/26/11):

1. The Social Network (opened 1/15/11)
2. The King's Speech (opens 2/26/11)
3. Black Swan (opens Golden Week - Late April/Early May 2011)
4. The Green Hornet (opened 1/22/11)
5. The Town (opens 2/5/11)
6. Burlesque (opened 12/18/11)
7. Gantz (opens 1/29/11)
8. Red (opens 1/29/11)
9. Unstoppable (opened 1/8/11)
10. Confessions (opened 6/5/10)
11. Caterpillar (opened 8/14/10
12. The Fighter (opens 3/26/11)
13. True Grit (opens 3/18/11)
14. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (opened 1/15/11)
15. White Night (opens 1/29/11)

16. Inception (opened 7/23/10)
17. Documentary of AKB48 (opened 1/22/11)
18. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (opens 2/4/11)
19. 127 Hours (opens June 2011)
20. Due Date (opened 1/22/11)
21. Norwegian Wood (opened 12/18/10)
22. Hereafter (opens 2/19/11)
23. Paradise Kiss (opens May 2011)
24. Happy Together -All About My Dog (opened 1/22/11)
25. Kick Ass (opened 12/18/10)
26. Tale of Genji (opens 2011)
27. Space Battleship Yamato (opened 12/1/10)
28. Mother Day (opens 2/5/11)
29. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (opens 5/20/11)
30. The Kids Are All Right (opens 2011)

Oscar Nominations definitely in effect.

Toho is releasing Gantz on an estimated 410 screens this weekend. That's the widest release for a local film since Space Battleship Yamato opened 12/1/10 on 440 screens. Usually just 4/5 local films have opened on more than 400 screens over the past 3/4 years.

It's being compared to the 20th Century Boy films from 2008/2009, so here is how they performed:

Film - Opening Weekend (screens) / Final Gross

20th Century Boys: Chapter I - 625,640,285 yen (310 screens) / 3.95 billion yen
20th Century Boys: Chapter II - 622,166,970 yen (374 screens) / 3.01 billion yen
20th Century Boys: Chapter III - 873,814,688 yen (374 screens) / 4.41 billion yen

I'd be safe and predict an opening weekend of 400-500 million yen, though. Legs this time of year (Chapter II opened the last weekend of January, too) are also some of the weakest, so perhaps a 2.5-3.0 billion yen final gross. That's my early prediction anyway.

Gantz II opens three months from now just before Golden Week on April 23rd.

The Borrower Arrietty got a realise date in the USA, it will be on Feb 17, 2012
Disney once again will be the distributor

I was hoping for a Fall 2011 release, but that's okay. It's near my birthday, so maybe I'll get lucky with it playing somewhere reasonable close (less than 3 hours away).

All the data for the record 2010 Box Office Year will be available anytime this week; final grosses for the 57 films that hit the 1 billion yen mark, admission breakdown, etc. but until then, here is the first of that data that's being reported:

The Japanese box office rose 7.1 percent in 2010 to a
record 220.7 billion yen ($2.7 billion), topping the previous
peak set in 2004, the association [Motion Picture Association of Japan] said.

Box office figures were inflated by the premiums charged
for 3D viewing, which generally tack on about 300 yen per
ticket, but the number of admissions also rose 3 percent.

By contrast, the North American box office was mostly
steady from the previous year at about $10.6 billion in 2010
but attendance fell 5.2 percent, according to Hollywood.com Box
Office.

Imported films accounted for about 46 percent of last
year's box office receipts, lagging Japanese fare for a third
consecutive year and far off a peak of 73 percent marked in
2002, the data showed.


I'll post much more when the Motion Picture Association of Japan updates their website soon.

The Motion Picture Association of Japan has now included the 2010 Data on the chart below:



2010 Records:

-Biggest Year in Gross, Yen and USD (beating 2004)
-Most Attended Year (beating 2004)
-Highest Avg. Admission Fee (beating 1998)
-Biggest Year for Japanese Films (beating 2009)

The only negative mark of the 2010 Box Office Year was the number of films released overall decreased for the fourth consecutive year, mostly due to smaller studios going out of business.

Also of note:

-Imported films saw a big increase over 2009, being the first time they've grossed over 100 million yen since 2007. Almost entirely due to 3D (Avatar, Alice, and Toy Story accounting for 38 million yen combined!)

-Japanese films led for the third consecutive year.

Now we've just have to wait for the final film grosses to be posted for the films (57 were reported, but unofficial) that grossed 1 billion yen or more.

And here we go!

Gross in Billion Yen:

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1 July Karigurashi no Arrietty 9.25 TOHO
2 Sep. UMIZARU 3 The Last Message 8.04 TOHO
3 July Bayside Shakedown 3 -Set the Guys Loose! 7.31 TOHO
4 Dec., '09 ONE PIECE film STRONG WORLD 4.80 TOEI
5 July Pokémon: Zoroark: Master of Illusions 4.16 TOHO
6 Dec., '09 Nodame Cantabile The Movie I 4.10 TOHO
7 June CONFESSIONS 3.85 TOHO
8 April Nodame Cantabile The Movie II 3.72 TOHO
9 Oct. SP THE MOTION PICTURE I 3.63 TOHO
10 April DETECTIVE CONAN : The Lost Ship in The Sky 3.20 TOHO
11 March Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Mermaid Legend 3.16 TOHO
12 August HANAMIZUKI~May your love bloom for a hundred years~ 2.83 TOHO
13 March Liar Game 2.36 TOHO
14 Oct. THE LADY SHOGUN AND HER MEN 2.32 SHOCHIKU/ASMIK ACE
15 Jan. About Her Brother 2.10 SHOCHIKU
16 Sep. VILLAIN 1.98 TOHO
17 May TRICK The Movie Rsychic Battle Royale 1.86 TOHO
18 Sep. BECK 1.76 SHOCHIKU
19 Sep. Thirteen Assassins 1.60 TOHO
20 Dec., '09 KAMEN RIDER W & MASKED RIDER DECADE 1.54 TOEI
21 Sep. From Me to You 1.53 TOHO
22 August KAMEN RIDER W THE MOVIE/GOSEIGER THE MOVIE 1.47 TOEI
23 May KAMEN RIDER DEN-O THE MOVIE TRILOGY 1.31 TOEI
24 April Crayon Shin-chan Chou Jikuu! Arashi wo Yobu Ora no Hanayome 1.25 TOHO
25 Oct. THE INCITE MILL - 7 Day Death Game - 1.22 WB
26 Jan. GOLDEN SLUMBER 1.15 TOHO
26 March PRETTY CURE ALL STARS DX2: Light of Hope ☆ Protect the Rainbow Jewels! 1.15 TOEI
28 April GINTAMA the Movie 1.07 WB
29 July NARUTO SHIPPUDEN THE MOVIE THE LOST TOWER 1.03 TOHO


[IMPORTED FILMS]

1 Dec., '09 AVATAR 15.60 FOX
2 April ALICE IN WONDERLAND 11.80 WDS
3 July TOY STORY 3 10.80 WDS
4 Dec., '09 UP 5.00 WDS
5 Sep. RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE 4.70 SPE
6 July INCEPTION 3.50 WB
7 Jan. OCEANS 2.50 GAGA
8 Oct. KNIGHT AND DAY 2.31 FOX
9 March SHERLOCK HOLMES 2.16 WB
10 July SALT 2.05 SPE
11 June SEX AND THE CITY 2 1.74 WB
12 April SHUTTER ISLAND 1.70 PARAMOUNT
13 April CLASH OF THE TITANS 1.58 WB
14 August THE KARATE KID 1.52 SPE
15 Feb. PERCY JACKSON & THE OLYMPIANS: THE LIGHTNING THIEF 1.42 FOX
16 Jan. SAYONARA ITSUKA 1.20 ASMIK ACE
16 June IRON MAN 2 1.20 PARAMOUNT
16 Oct. DESPICABLE ME 1.20 TOHO-TOWA
19 August THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE 1.00 WDS

Press Release:

TOKYO -- The Japanese box office had an all-time record year in 2010, pulling in 220.7 billion yen ($2.66 billion), defying a stagnant economy and a shrinking population to register the highest attendances since 1974.

Domestic films had their best ever year, grossing 118.2 billion yen – just topping last year’s record numbers, while overseas fare recovered strongly from a poor 2009 to clock up 102.5 billion yen, according to figures from the Motion Picture Producers Association of Japan.

2010 was the third year in a row that domestic product outsold imports, after having only so once in the previous 20 years.

Nevertheless, foreign films clawed back a few points of market share, from 43.1 percent in 2009, to 46.4 percent, mainly on the back of Hollywood 3D blockbusters; Avatar (15.6 billion yen), Alice in Wonderland (11.8 billion yen) and Toy Story 3 (10.8 billion yen), were the three biggest hits of the year, irrespective of origin.

The top domestic movies were the animated Karigurashi no Arrietty (The Borrowers) from Studio Ghibli, with 9.25 billion yen, 3D sequel Umizaru 3 The Last Message with 8.04 billion yen and another third installment, Bayside Shakedown 3 - Set the Guys Loose!, with 7.31 billion yen.

The fourth-placed film, Toei animation One Piece Strong World, with 4.8 billion, was the only non-Toho distributed movie in the top 13 grossing domestic films of the year.

Kokuhaku (Confessions), which missed out this week making the cut from short list to Foreign Language Oscar nominee, pulled in 3.85 billion yen to put it in seventh place domestically, produced and distributed by Toho.

3D ticket premiums helped boost average admission prices by around 50 yen to 1,266 yen, the first significant rise after years of gradual declines in an economy experiencing deflation.

The population is also falling: at this month’s coming of age ceremony, a record low of 1.24 million people celebrated the fact that they will reach the age of majority (20) this year. And yet despite this demographic disadvantage, admissions neared 175 million, with the number of screens creeping up to 3,412.

Toho, after another record year, is to experiment with reducing ticket prices in a number of areas from this spring in an attempt to boost attendances.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2 ... sets-76659

Weekend Forecast
January 29-30,2011



1 - Gantz (Toho) NEW
2 - Red (Disney) NEW
3 - White Night (GAGA) NEW
4 1 The Social Network (Sony) 3
5 2 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 3
6 3 The Green Hornet (Sony) 2
7 5 Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) 6
8 4 Goseijger Vs Shinkenger (TOEI) 2
9 6 Unstoppable (Fox) 4
10 8 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 9

Gantz is currently outpacing Space Battleship Yamato at the usual locations, so it may have a shot at 600 million yen ($7.3 million) this weekend.

If it opens to 600 million yen, that should give it a final total close to 3 billion yen ($36.5 million) this time of year.

The first showing data for Gantz from the MOVIX Cinema in Miyoshi has been released: Gantz (410 screens): 310/519.

Below are some similar (adaptations of popular dramas and/or anime/manga) comparisons to Gantz from the same location.

Kimi ni Todoke (285 screens): 97/519 (opened with 230 million yen)
The Lady Shogun and Her Men (312 screens): 148/519 (opened with 290 million yen)
Magic Hour (379 screens): 158/519 (opened with 500 million yen)
Nodame Cantabile Part I (409 screens): 205/519 (opened with 390 million yen)
Suspect X (410 screens): 236/519 (opened with 540 million yen)
Boys Over Flowers (400 screens): 429/519 (opened with 1.005 billion yen)

1 billion is clearly out of reach (being reserved for one or two films a year), but based on this data, 500 million yen definitely looks to be the very minimum here for Gantz with 600 million or a little higher possible.

Saturday Results from the Usual Locations:

Openers:

Gantz: 21% more than Space Battleship Yamato; 14.1% more than SP: The Motion Picture. If Gantz maintains this on Sunday as well, it will open between 600-650 million yen ($7.3-7.9 million).

Red: 118% more than The Green Hornet. If Red stays steady on Sunday, it would open between 300-350 million yen ($3.6-4.2 million).

White Night: 57.4% of Abacus and Sword last December. If White Night holds well tomorrow, it would open between 65-75 million yen ($775,000-900,000). That looks rather low to me though.


Top 5 Holdovers:

The Social Network (-28.4%)
1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (-40.8%)
Partners, The Movie 2 (-33.6%)
The Green Hornet (-62.5%) *ouch*
Unstoppable (-56.5%)

With Gantz aiming for 600 million yen this weekend, below are the films that opened above 400 million yen in January:

Biggest January Opening Weekends / Final Total (multiplier):

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - 401,912,252 yen / 2.05 billion yen (5.10x)
Dororo - 452,401,468 yen / 3.45 billion yen (7.63x)
Oceans 12 - 552,421,143 yen / 3.60 billion yen (6.52x)
The Ecstasy Hotel - 567,311,720 yen / 6.08 billion yen (10.72x)
Quantum of Solace - 573,153,162 yen / 1.98 billion yen (3.45x)
Flight Plan - 603,178,517 yen / 3.12 billion yen (5.17x)
20th Century Boys Chapter II - 622,166,970 yen / 3.01 billion yen (4.84x)

Thanks for the info Corpse.

Very interesting to see the change in the Japanese BO.

Why have Hollywood blockbusters become so unpopular compared to Japanese fare?

It's difficult to say, but it began during 2006.

If I had to guess though, it would be Japanese Cinema has simply expanded very well with more releases and better quality films. There is now more local fare to see in theaters than imported releases (again, began in 2006). You can see the growth below:



Also in the image above, you can see that Japanese Films averaged about 1/3 of the Market Share until 2006 when they saw a substantial increase. Hollywood Films overtook Japan Films in 2007 thanks to Pirates and Potter being released in the same year, but have since fallen behind Japan Films for three consecutive years.

I would say Hollywood will win 2011 with Pirates and Potter being released in the same year again, but I'm doubting it because even with Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, and Toy Story 3 all grossing over 10 billion yen, they still fell short in 2010.

Many Japan Films this year are also being released in 3D, with Toho (biggest distributor operating close to 25% or of all screens) also lowering the general admission fee by 20% at all their locations starting this Spring (the first event of its kind) will only attract more people to see local films this year, too.

Toho itself has grown so huge over the past few years, they're just stomping on local and foreign distributors alike. You don't even see a weekend anymore without a Toho film or two or three in the Top 10. Japanese Films grossed an all-time high of 118.2 billion yen ($1.45 billion) last year, and Toho made up 74.8 billion yen ($910 million) of that!

Sunday Results

Gantz: 13.4% more than Space Battleship Yamato; 13.3% more than SP: The Motion Picture. If we average both days, then Gantz performed 17.2% better than Space Battleship Yamato, and 13.7% better than SP: The Motion Picture.

Space Battleship Yamato had a 2-day weekend of 528,215,385, and SP: The Motion Picture had a 2-day weekend of 529,122,081.

So Gantz should have opened to 605-620 million yen ($7.3-7.7 million) based on this.

Biggest January Opening Weekends / Final Total (multiplier):



Biggest Opening in January in USD is a lock, but It's going to be very close in Yen.

1/29-30, 2011
Weekend Admission Rankings by Location (Toho, Warner, Shikoku):

TOHO

1 - Gantz (Toho) NEW
2 - Red (Disney) NEW
3 3 The Social Network (Sony) 3
4 1 Documentary of AKB48 (Toho) 2
5 2 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 3
6 - White Night (GAGA) NEW
7 6 Tensou Sentai Goseiger vs Shinkenger: Epic on the Silver Screen (TOEI) 2
8 5 Unstoppable (Fox) 4
9 7 Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) 6
10 4 The Green Hornet (Sony) 2

WARNER and SHIKOKU to follow later.