Actually The Hurt Locker tied Avatar last year.

But there are enough examples, yeah. Brokeback had more nods than Crash. FOTR more than A Beautiful Mind. The Aviator more than Million Dollar Baby. Benjamin Button more than Slumdog Millionaire. Babel more than The Departed...

Well, frankly, back in 2006, The Departed also got only fve noms and no techs besides Editing. Also, it neither DiCaprio nor Nicholson were nominated for it (that was a surprise too). Babel got two more noms, including two for acting and more than any other BP nominee that year.

I think the race will be really really really close now.

I mean The Social Network is up against The King's Speech in six categories (all except Screenplay and Sound Editing).

The Social Network is most likely winning Editing and Director against it.

The King's Speech will win Actor against it.

Both will likely lose their Sound nominations and I could see both losing the Cinematography nominations as well.

Picture and Score are the question marks.

The King's Speech is certainly winning:

Best Costume Design
Best Actor


The King's Speech is most likely losing:

Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Sound Mixing
Best Editing
Best Director
Best Cinematography (can't see it winning against TSN, Black Swan and Inception)


The four additonal Oscars TKS might win:

Best Score
Best Art Direction
Best Original Screenplay
Best Picture


That gives it a maximum of six Oscars at the moment.


The Social Network is certainly winning:

Best Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Director

It is certainly losing:

Best Actor
Best Sound Editing

It might also win:

Best Score
Best Cinematography
Best Picture

Maximum of possible wins: 6 as well.

Now the only reason I think TKS is a good contender for Score is because Desplat is overdue. Otherwise, it'd be TSN's all the way or at least Inception's. I still think TSN will win. TSN will probably lose Cinematography.

The King's Speech will not win Artz Direction, IMO. Not against Alice and Inception. It probably will win Screenplay (unless the Academy feels pity for Nolan).


So before the announcement of BP, it'll look like this, in my opinion:


The King's Speech:

Best Costume Design
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actor


The Social Network:

Best Editing
Best Score
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Director


You decide...

King's Speech isn't the frontrunner at all. Who honestly predicted that Social Network would get more nods than King's Speech? It stood no chance in the technicals. And Andrew Garfield was never a shoe-in for supporting actor. Nothing changed, it is still Social Network to lose

The difference is that The King's Speech wasn't expected to lead the nominations, at least not by 2 (the possibility of it tying for the most noms was there and mentioned), and all of the other contenders showed weakness. This is quite different from the other examples. Combining with PGA win and box office momentum, to me it's a clear frontrunner at this point.

But Babel didn't show enough clear strength, nor The Queen (no surprise nom for Sheen) or Little Miss Sunshine (no director), so The Departed's status wasn't really challenged, and its actor category mess was known.

I'd consider The King's Speech a lock for Original Screenplay. Also remember most ballots are returned within the first week, and The King's Speech is the talk of the town at the moment.

In which categories was Social Network expected to get additional nominations? Maybe Garfield but other than that? I don't see where you all are getting a shift in preference

edit: Xiayun even predicted that King's Speech would beat TSN in overall nominations. Not by that margin of course, but still.

I don't see any way Social Network wins Screen Play, editing, and directing, then loses best picture. I just don't believe it could have that much going for it and lose to a movie that has actor and... a few techs (costume, score, not really comparable to editing, directing.)
It's a closer and more interesting race now, but I still have Social Network as the distinct leader. PGA aside it has absolutely dominated throughout almost all precursor's, it isn't just losing that momentum because it "only" has 8 nominations.

Remember The King's Speech has screenplay in the win column too.

And it has happened before: Traffic won director/screenplay/editing but lost picture to Gladiator, which didn't even have a screenplay nom and truly only won with actor and a couple of techs.

The immense praise has mainly come from the critics though. The industry certainly likes it very much too, but The King's Speech has pretty much matched TSN among groups that have overlap with academy members (e.g. guild nominations), except for WGA where it isn't eligible, and exceeded it at BAFTA and PGA, so it could entirely be possible that the industry itself has loved it a little more since the start.

Let's see what the DGA is doing. SAG ensemble should go to The Fighter, right?

But remember, Avatar was not nominated for any acting nor writing categories. No film since Grand Hotel has won best picture w/o nods in those categories.

I agree with xiayun, I think King's Speech could take this. But remember guys, the voting process is different now for Best Picture than in the past. You rank the films from 1 to 10, and it is decided on the amount of points you get (1 = 10 points, 2 = 9 points, etc.). So a film can win if it gets all number 2 votes. And since it's getting the most love from the acting branch (3 nods, including a frontrunner), all the actors will make this number one, along with the older members. I think they may be some split decisions between the two films in terms of number one votes (Social and Speech), but because of the acting branch, and alot of technicals, King's Speech has the advantage here.

I don't mind middle-brow elitism as much as I mind erratic middle-brow elitism. Nolan missing a director nom after three DGA noms and Cameron having a nomination for Avatar is just disturbing.

He's very private. I just wanted him to get nominated over O Russell for his childish stupidity.

Ummmmmmm, no...

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=56000

Actually if a movie theoretically had all #2 votes on all ballots and not a single #1 vote in the first round it would get eliminated first!

I think Gladiator vs. Traffic is the most apt example here. Traffic won four of the five Oscars it was nominated for...Best Supporting Actor/Best Editing/Best Adapted Screenplay/Best Director...and lost BP!

I can't believe every single one of the Gurus of Gold switched sides in about 5 seconds. Haven't the last few month been worth anything? I'm the first one who'd love TSN to lose, but what the hell? Not even a single one of them sticking to their guns?

Sasha said she is going to stick with TSN unless Fincher loses DGA. She just hasn't submitted her updated ranking yet.

One thing people tend to forget, or that I feel is getting lost in the conversation, is you know, The King's Speech actually has had fantastic reviews from critics. This is far from the situation of Crash/Brokeback, Gladiator/Traffic, or even A Beautiful Mind/LOTR, where there is a clear difference in the degree of critical enthusiasm between the two (one good but not great, one otherworldly). If TKS wins best picture, its 88 average/16 100s at MC and 96%/8.7 average at RT would put it near No Country for Old Men in term of the best reviewed Best Picture winner of last decade.

such a result requires retardation for it to be a possibility, obviously the academy is full of tards.

no doubt they want to snub fincher as well.

That kinda never helped the Shakespeare in Love backlash anyway. It also had 87/100 at MC (only one point worse than TKS) and 93% at RT (8.1/10). Ryan had 91% and 8.2/10 at RT and 90/100 at MC. Nevertheless, now that over a decade has passed, it is still being remembered by most as th night when Ryan was snubbed.

Does anyone actually believe that the same won't be thought of The King's Speech winning against what is one of the best-reviewed movies ever? Will people really remember TKS as favorably in ten years? I kinda doubt that. The backlash will be on the very same level as SiL.

By the way, The Social Network will win DGA, WGA and likely ACE. If it manages that and loses BP, it'll be the first movie ever to win these three guilds and yet lose BP at the Oscars. Traffic actally lost ACE (to Gladiator). Brokeback lost ACE to Crash and Private Ryan lost WGA to Shakespeare.

I am not aying that there cannot be a first time, but this would be unique.

I think during Oscar night, the decision will be made early on. If The King's Speech wins Score and Cinematography, it is winning BP. Hell, probably if it just wins Score.

If The Social Network wins those two in addition to Screeplay/Editing/Director, I'd have a very hard time seeing TKS still taking BP.