Here's the thread we had for 2010

Current Top 10 of 2010:

1. Toy Story 3 - $415,004,880
2. Alice in Wonderland - $334,191,110
3. Iron Man 2 - $312,433,331
4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $300,531,751
5. Inception - $292,576,195
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 - $285,943,000
7. Despicable Me - $251,266,265
8. Shrek Forever After - $238,736,787
9. How to Train Your Dragon - $217,581,231
10. The Karate Kid - $176,591,618



My Predictions:


1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 - $345 million

Yeah, I believe that for the first time since the first film a Harry Potter flick will actually top the year. As you can see, I am not predicting any huge breakouts this year...no movie above $350 million. The year is mostly filled with rather predictable sequels, many coming off predecessors with mediocre WoM. That's not the case for the final Harry Potter flick as the first Deathly Hallows film mostly got a decent reception. Now this has a lot going for it. It is THE final film. WB will push the hell out of it, making it the movie event of the summer. It will be in 3D this time around and should contain way more action than all other Harry Potter flicks so far. That taken together should give it the edge to become the year's biggest film.


2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $325 million

The biggest obstacle of this film will be its predecessor. We have all seen this year with Shrek Forever After how a badly received predecessor can hurt the following film even if that is a clear improvement over the last. Now I can see this one being better than Transformers 2, but with the last film lacking, I really don't see it being this much of an event. The loss in attendance will be quite big, but 3D will make up for that. Of course it'll still be a huge blockbuster, but should see a similar step down from the second film as Shrek the Third saw from Shrek 2 or the third Pirates from the second.


3. Cars 2 - $316 million

It's never wrong to bet on Pixar. Toy Story 3 not only won 2011 by a sizable margin, grossing $415 million, it also had terrific WoM to boot. As did Up and WALL-E before it. Pixar's brand name is as hot as ever as they're poised to score their second Best Picture nomination in a row. The original Cars did $244 million domestically five years ago and became one of the Top 10 biggest DVD bestsellers EVER. The thing became simply HUGE on DVD and the merchandise has been selling like crazy for years now. It might be not very well-received among Pixar fans, but general audiences liked it A LOT, giving it an opening-to-total multiplier of 4.07. Expect a very healthy increase for this one, especially with the 3D bonus.


4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $311 million

Another film to suffer from its predecessor. Considering very good DVD sales, At World's End wasn't as badly received as, say, Shrek the Third, but it still wasn't a Pirates film many wanted. Things are looking good for the new film so far. It will, however, first need to regain the audiences' trust in the franchise which is why I expect a gross similar to that of the last film.


5. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I - $305 million

The series has become very predictable by now. First chapter of the final film + IMAX again + one year of inflation = slight increase over the predecessor. I know some are saying the book is not as beloved, but c'mon...d you really believe any of the Twilight crazies who read the book and watched the first three films would just skip on the last one?! Seriously...


6. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $275 million

Dreamworks' record with sequels is hit/miss. Shrek 2 was a huge huge success, but the following sequels all decreased from the predecessors. Outside of that franchise, Madagascar 2 had a much bigger opening weekend than the first film, yet failed to match its total. I'd argue that Kung Fu Panda was somewhat better received than the original Madagascar and its legs were just cut short by WALL-E. With 3D and a terrific Memorial Day weekend release (which guarantees a $100+ million four-day gross), it should have a solid increase over the first film, but don't expect another Shrek 2.


7. The Hangover: Part II - $270 million

The first film seems like a lightning in the bottle kind of thing...but let's face it, it was IMMENSELY beloved and there's no reason the audiences shouldn't come back for the second. It outsold most recent years' hits on DVD which is huge for an R-rated comedy and its legs were absolutely unbelievable. If Todd Phillips at least somewhat delivers, nothing stands in its way to at least pass $200 million domestically. A more exotic Thailand location might hurt the film a little as opposed to Vegas (which is just a classic). On the other hand, this will have the 3D factor (which still surprises me for a film like this). It actually was shot in 3D, not converted! Anyway, I just expect something similar to the first film's numbers, just with a way bigger start and shorter legs.


8. Cowboys & Aliens - $218 million

This is just my pick for one of the summer's break-outs. A solid cast (Craig, Rockwell, Ford, Wilde), a director who has delivered two $300+ million hits back-to-back, a terrific teaser...and True Grit brought westerns back into the mainstream big time. If the marketing keeps up and the film itself delivers the goods, it could be one of the crowd pleasers of the summer.


9. Happy Feet 2 - $215 million

The first film made $198 million in theatres back in 2006 and was tremendously huge on DVD (over 13 millon sold copies). Now the Narnia films have shown that it doesn't mean that much and frankly I haven't seen THAT much anticipation for it...on the other hand, it'll have a terrific release date and will likely score a big opening weekend. It is also hard to deny the first film's 4.7+ multiplier. With inflation and 3D, the attendance will sink a bit, but the total gross will still increase.


10. Sherlock Holmes 2 - $206 million


A rather safe pick here. I think the sequel will up the ante more. Robert Downey Jr. is still beloved and the first film had solid WoM to boot. With 3D (not confirmed, but likely), it will manage to get above $200 million again, though probably won't top the first film.


Other contenders:

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - I am just really really really hoping that the series has peaked already. The DVD sales for the sequel were just around half of those of the first film. I still see big numbers here, but maybe "only" around $185-195 million this time.

Thor - Honestly, it is sandwiched between Fast Five and Pirates...I really don't see how it can be huge, so I see around $170 million as its very ceiling.

Green Lantern - the first trailer was somewhat of a letdown. It can get a Fantastic Four-like performance with the 3D bonus...but not much more (and not adjusted for inflation, since the character is not as well-known). So with some luck it can manage $180-190 million, but not much more, IMO.

Captain America: The First Avenger - Okay, now that is a well-known character, but I am not sure how well the period setting will work. I see it anywhere around $175-215 million at the moment.

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol - The last film made less than $140 million despite good WoM and Cruise's Knight & Day disappointed too. It will also have a whole lot of competition to fight. So even if everything goes right for the movie, I can't see more than $160 million.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - The books are insanely popular and Fincher will be huge by then thanks to The Social Network. However, the R-rating and generally dark theme will prevent it from being huge. I could see up to $150 million, however.

Fast Five - typical $140-160 million total.

Puss in Boots - this could actually surprise as the character is one of the most beloved ones in the Shrek series and the final Shrek film actually had good WoM. However, I think, competition from Happy Feet 2 and Arthur Christmas will prevent it from being really big, so it'll probably top out with $180-190 million or so.

The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn - Spielberg/Jackson + 3D + high-profile release date + likely strong marketing campaign...still not enough to really overcome the fact that the title is too long and the US audiences simply don't care much for the characters. It'll hit $175 million if VERY lucky.

The Smurfs - this is really a HUGE question mark. Could go anywhere from $100 million to $220 million. I see it somewhere in the middle.

Zookeeper - talking animals + Kevin James + July release - should be enough for $140+ million

X-Men: First Class - Wolverine is a much bigger character than everyone in this film and it'll have tons of competition. But a great director might actually make a good film out of this and somewhat help it to overcome the tremendous competition. I see $150-170 million.

Super 8 - No idea, really...

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two- $380M
2. Pirates of the Caribbean 4- $350M
3. Cars 2- $340M
4. Transformers 3- $300M
5. Breaking Dawn: Part 1- $275M
6. Kung Fu Panda 2- $270M
7. Cowboys & Aliens- $225M
8. Hangover 2- $220M
9. Green Lantern- $210M
10. Alvin 3- $200M

1. Cars 2 - 340m
2. HP7.2 - 330m
3. TF3 - 320m
4. KFP 2 - 315m
5. POTC 4 - 305m
6. BD 1 - 301m
7. HO 2 - 265m
8. HF 2 - 230m
9. SH 2 - 210m
10. AATC 3 - 200m

It'd be quite insane if the entire Top 10 was comprised of sequels!

LOL. I know I think Cowboys and Aliens & Tintin has a very good shot. It is really hard to keep up with these numbers....damn

You know I have a bad feeling Happy Feet 2 won't be huge. Like I'm thinking sub-$150M. Five years may have been TOO long of a wait here. Yeah you could says Cars is the same but it has the Pixar-brand, some Mater shorts, and merchandise to keep the name in people's (especially kid's) minds over that time.

1. Transformers 3 - 170m/375m
2. HP7 Pt.2 - 155m/340m
3. Breaking Dawn: Part I - 173m/320m
4. Pirates 4 - 120m/300m
5. Cars 2 - 80m/300m
6. Kung Fu Panda 2 - 78m/265m
7. Happy Feet 2 - 60m/240m
8. The Hangover 2 - 67m/225m
9. The Adventures of Tintin - 50m/200m
10.Captain America - 70m/180m

Everyone seems to think Revenge of the Fallen had such bad WoM, but it's legs were pretty much the same as the first Transformers. They both had about a 2.0 multiplier after their first weekend.

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $410M
2. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $350M
3. Cars 2 - $305M
4. Potter 7.5 - $290M
5. Twilight 4.0 - $260M - Barely anything happens in this book as is, splitting it into 2 parts is the greediest thing in the history of movie studios. And it has some firm competition.
6. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $250M
7. Pirates IV - $250M
8. Cowboys and Aliens - $220M
9. The Zookeeper - $190M
10. The Hangover 2 - $185M
11. Winnie The Pooh - $185M

Sequel predictions are way too high after what happened in 2010, especially the predictions for family cartoon sequels. Original film or remakes will populate half the list rather than just sequels.

TF1: Tuesday opening
TF2: Wednesday opening

But yes, I feel Transformers is being underestimated yet again. TF2 increased 26% while Pirates 2 managed to increase 39%. With another year of inflation as Pirates 2, TF2 would have probably increased as much. The similarity in increase pretty much invalidates the assumptions that Pirates 1/2 were a lot more well received than TF. Then, TF3 won't have the disadvantage of being sandwiched between two mega sequels and a very close gap from the previous like Pirates 3.

If anything, TF2 had strong hate on the internet crowd alone but the actual crowd like it as much as Pirates 2. The consistent popularity of the TF films regardless of WoM was proven when TF2 happened, which IM2 failed to duplicate despite being supposedly "more well-recieved", heh.

Now, haters will bring up Shrek 3 as comparison, but then Shrek 2 increased 65% already setting the bar way too high that a sizeable drop for the third was deemed inevitable.

TF3 will only make sub-325m if it's worse than TF2 -a sequel that was already "bad" to begin with.

Top 3 belongs to TF3, HP7-2 or Pirates 4, outside chance is Cars 2.

TF2 wasn't so bad if you leave out the stupid twins, Devastator testacles and way to many cheap and nasty jokes. They need to make TF3 witty not crass.

Why would Potter gross less than DH Part 1 with 3D being included for Part 2? Also no way Mission Impossible does that well.

1. Transformers 3 - $340M
2. HP7 Pt.2 - $320M
3. Pirates of the Caribbean 4 - $307M
4. Breaking Dawn: Part 1 - $305M
5. Cars 2 - $290M
6. Kung Fu Panda 2- $260M
7. Hangover 2- $250M
8. Happy Feet 2 - $215M
9. Sherlock Holmes 2 - $205M
10. Alvin & Chipmunks - $200M

You kinda forgot #4 and #5.

I think Potter is gonna have really bad legs. It'll make the Twilight movies seem like they have good legs. And I have MI so high because I believe in Brad Bird's ability to make a can't miss film.

You kinda forgot #4 and #5.

Oops! thanks Lecter.

As for Potter I have to agree that it's legs aren't going to be that great. I mean the first part is still struggling getting to $300M. Still though this is the VERY last film and with 3D and it being released in the middle of prime summer season it should atleast have a longer and more steady run at the B.O than Part 1. That's if it doesn't completely die after OW.

Yeah, I expect legs to be no good either, but remember, the opening will be huge and it will have summer weekdays. So I don't see a multiplier worse than 2.25.

Prime Summer weekdays plus IMAX help will keep its gross a lot similar to what we saw for Inception

No guts no glory, Cars 2 gets #1 this year. Pixar is on an EPIC WOM roll after Wall-E, Up, and Toy Story 3. I have it at 350 mil+ which could be enough

I also think Hangover 2 could be bigger than any of us expect. The first one made fucking 280 million. So that could be a 350 mil film too.

I think Sherlock Holmes 2 and Kung Fu Panda make leap as well

What's the record for most 300 films in a year? I agree it looks like no 400 ones, but it looks like a record year for 300 mil films

Even being a fanboy, that is illogical. With 3D it's going to decrease in admissions being the final Potter?

IF anything people will see it MORE, not LESS, especially if it's done well, and after how DH1 went, I'm damn sure it'll be good, if not great.

As for Mission Impossible, I have liked each sequel more than its predecessor, though I did see MI3 before the other 2, and having Bird + cast it just seems too good to not do well. But, traditionally, it is still Mission Impossible and those have never done EXTREMELY well, put it with Sherlock Holmes & Alvin, no less. It will be a helluva competitive December but the only way that gross can come true is if is basically fantastic, otherwise it's going to be eaten into, even if the others also don't deliver, and Alvin never delivers, so you know how hard it'll be. Add Spielberg's Tintin, Fincher's Tattoo, Scorsese's Cabret and you can see how the potential quality standard will be something to compete with as well. Imagine if they all deliver I would LOVE December '11. Anyway, it's just the start of the year, no way am I going to look forward to the end now.

As for predictions:

Those that should make the top 10 are Cars, Kung Fu Panda, Harry Potter, Pirates, Transformers, Breaking Dawn, Cowboys & Aliens, Tintin, Hangover & Sherlock Holmes with Mission Impossible & Alvin being wildcards. 8 sequels. lol.

Wait, just saw the rest of your predictions, WTF. Zookeeper, Winnie the Pooh, Pirates and Twilight are all

The record's four.

I don't think so, the "Cars level" that you mentioned had a multiplier of 4, which is pretty good, the hate on Cars mostly come from people on the internet, but outside is a very likely film, people love Cars because of its core message

I agree. Cars had pretty good WoM.

I like these threads and the Lecter right ups.

1.Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $348m
2. Harry Potter 7.2 - $327m
3. Pirates of the Caribbean : On Stranger Tides - $301m
4. Cars 2 - $295m
5. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt1 - $293m
6. The Hangover II - $278m
7. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $268m
8. Cowboys and Aliens - $257m
9. Happy Feet 2 - $201m
10. Puss n Boots - $193m

-------------------------------------------

Sherlock Holmes 2 - $190m
Alvin & Chipmunks - $188m
X Men First Class - $184m
Captain America - $175m
Super 8 - $162m
The Adventures of Tintin - $160m
Fast Five - $159m
The Smurfs - $152m
Mission Impossible 4 - $149m
Summer Comedy - $141m
The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo - $134m
Rio or Rango or Both - $130m
Scream 4 - $123m
Zookeeper - $122m
Sucker Punch - $120m
Green Hornet - $114m
Thor - $113m
Battle Los Angeles - $110m
Green Lantern - $109m
Just Go with It - $105m

Thanks Gez