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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? From last year's thread, two actually came true - Avatar winning less than four Oscars in total and Up in the Air losing Best Adapted Screenplay?
So what about this year?
Obviously all of the above seem unlikely. Having to pick one, I'm just gonna be gutsy and say that Inception winning 7+ is the most likely of those, followed by Bale losing Best Supporting Actor.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:14 pm |
 
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? The Social Network losing Best Picture (to The King's Speech or even The Fighter)
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:47 pm |
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Argos
Z
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 2:20 pm
Posts: 7952
Location: Wherever he went, including here, it was against his better judgment.
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? 'Alice in Wonderland' winning best picture. I can see it happening.
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"Der Lebenslauf des Menschen besteht darin, dass er, von der Hoffnung genarrt, dem Tod in die Arme tanzt."
- Arthur Schopenhauer
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| Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:54 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11033
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Never trust a supposed lock in a supporting category.
Bale losing would not suprise me.
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| Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:26 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Bale could very well lose if Michael Douglas is nominated for the Wall Street sequel. I can't see him losing Rush, Renner, or Garfield, though.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:59 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? neo_wolf wrote: Never trust a supposed lock in a supporting category.
Bale losing would not suprise me. The last three locks in the Best Supporting Actor category (Bardem, Ledger, Waltz) really were locks. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:28 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Gunslinger wrote: Bale could very well lose if Michael Douglas is nominated for the Wall Street sequel. I can't see him losing Rush, Renner, or Garfield, though. Wut? You really expect Douglas to die this soon? _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:28 pm |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am
Posts: 16163
Location: Croatia
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Even then Douglas has no chance at winning. Whatsoever.
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| Sat Jan 08, 2011 6:58 am |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Gunslinger wrote: The Social Network losing Best Picture (to The King's Speech or even The Fighter) Either this or someone upsetting Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence?) _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sat Jan 08, 2011 5:52 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Michael A wrote: Gunslinger wrote: The Social Network losing Best Picture (to The King's Speech or even The Fighter) Either this or someone upsetting Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence?) Lawrence winning (though her performance was good) would be sad.
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| Sat Jan 08, 2011 11:37 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Lawrence is better than Portman and Bening, but she won't win.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:01 am |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Gunslinger wrote: Lawrence is better than Portman and Bening, but she won't win. 
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| Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:03 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? jmovies wrote: Gunslinger wrote: Lawrence is better than Portman and Bening, but she won't win. Is that so shocking? lol Bening and Portman's (broad) performance are fantastic in their way, but they both fade once you're a month or two removed from watching their respective films. But Lawrence's deeply felt turn has stayed with me. Neither Portman or Bening can top Lawrence's acting in the boat scene near the end of Winter's Bone. _________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:09 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? The two best lead-female performances of the year--Carey Mulligan in Never Let Me Go, Greta Gerwig in Greenberg--won't even be nominated, unfortunately.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun Jan 09, 2011 1:32 am |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Gunslinger wrote: jmovies wrote: Gunslinger wrote: Lawrence is better than Portman and Bening, but she won't win. Is that so shocking? lol Bening and Portman's (broad) performance are fantastic in their way, but they both fade once you're a month or two removed from watching their respective films. But Lawrence's deeply felt turn has stayed with me. Neither Portman or Bening can top Lawrence's acting in the boat scene near the end of Winter's Bone. I can agree somewhat with Bening, but considering Portman gave by far her best performance, and will what will be probably her career-defining performance, you can't say that'll just fade or that Lawrence was better.
Last edited by jmovies on Sun Jan 09, 2011 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun Jan 09, 2011 5:36 pm |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? jmovies wrote: I can agree somewhat with Bening, but considering Portman gave by far her best performance, and will what will be probably her career-defying performance, you can't say that'll just fade or that Lawrence was better. 1. Portman will never top her debut in The Professional. 2. "Career-defying" ?!?
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| Sun Jan 09, 2011 5:39 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35248
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Gunslinger wrote: Lawrence is better than Portman and Bening, but she won't win.  Lawrence was fine but nothing great in Winter's Bone. Both Portman and Bening were fantastic. Portman gives the performance of her career so far, and it probably won't be topped.
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:46 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25427
Location: Classified
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Bale is a lock.
It came down to Social Network losing BP and TS3 losing animated. I voted for Social here. Though I'll be rooting for Dragon on oscar night!
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 4:37 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Mike wrote: Portman gives the performance of her career so far [in Closer], and it probably won't be topped. Agreed! I won't deny the Black Swan role may wind up her most iconic, but it's not her -best-, in my opinion. _________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 1:24 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? jmovies wrote: Gunslinger wrote: jmovies wrote: Gunslinger wrote: Lawrence is better than Portman and Bening, but she won't win. Is that so shocking? lol Bening and Portman's (broad) performance are fantastic in their way, but they both fade once you're a month or two removed from watching their respective films. But Lawrence's deeply felt turn has stayed with me. Neither Portman or Bening can top Lawrence's acting in the boat scene near the end of Winter's Bone. I can agree somewhat with Bening, but considering Portman gave by far her best performance, and will what will be probably her career-defining performance, you can't say that'll just fade or that Lawrence was better. I just meant to convey her performance's power faded in my estimation, the "you" used in a very abstract way. Poor phrasing. I feel very confident saying Lawrence in Winter's Bone is superior to Portman in Black Swan. _________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 1:27 pm |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am
Posts: 16163
Location: Croatia
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? I don't think we'll see any upsets this year. At least not huge ones. A small upset might happen in technical categories, but we already now that sometimes weird picks happen there.
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:05 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Magnus wrote: I mean, your opinion is your opinion which is fine.
But for the sake of award-argument (which really isn't about one's personal opinion but other's), Lawerence has no shot. Of course, you didn't say she did so I don't fault you for that. But I do fault Benjamin for even suggesting it was a possibilty. Definitely. I'd say it's 65% Portman, 20% Bening, 10% Kidman, and 5% between Lawrence and the other person who is nominated (Manville, Rapace, Swank, Williams). Lawrence's inevitable nomination is definitely of the "welcome to the business/your nomination is the prize, young lady" variety. _________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 4:21 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Kidman's chance is precisely ZERO percent.
Kidman already has an Oscar. The reviews she is getting are good, but not amazing. She has won ZERO awards so far. None whatsoever. Bening is overdue with three losses already. Kidman is in a tiny flick that won#t even make $5 million domestically. Portman's hugely praised turn is in a $100+ million grosser and even Bening's film will end up about five times bigger than Kidman's. Nothing, absolutely nothing justifies the 10% talk for Kidman. Michelle Williams has a better shot.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 9:16 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Jesus Christ, Lecter. I'm sorry. Tell Chloe not to shoot.  Perhaps I am giving Kidman a bit too much of the pie, but it hardly matters. Portman's going to win. _________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Jan 10, 2011 10:32 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: Most possible HUGE upset at the Oscars this year? Magnus wrote: I mean, your opinion is your opinion which is fine.
But for the sake of award-argument (which really isn't about one's personal opinion but other's), Lawerence has no shot. Of course, you didn't say she did so I don't fault you for that. But I do fault Benjamin for even suggesting it was a possibilty. I do apologize for the subsequent thread unraveling after my statement, but I don't see how she has no shot. She is very acclaimed and the movie has done quite well with critics. I'm not claiming it to be likely, but of the upsets listed, I think Portman and Bening could split support and a small group of backers could push Lawrence in. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:56 pm |
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