In my opinion, these three films will be the Oscar favorites at next year's Academy Awards, provided all three will be released this year (which in case of Spielberg's Vengeance a.k.a. Untitled Steven Spielberg's Munich Olympics Project will be somewhat tough with the shooting starting in June). Of course, there is no guarantee that these three movies will be as great and well-received as it seems now. Alexander is the best example of unpredictability of Oscar chances. It had almost everything going for it and all it ended up with, were numerous Razzie nominations. However, it is fair to say that these three films have what it needs to be considered good contenderd at this point.

Let me take them apart:

Memoirs of a Geisha:

Well, this one seems to be the most obvious one of the bunch to me. For on, here are the most importnat facts about the production, stated by Loyal a while ago. This movie screams Oscar Gold. It is based on an acclaimed novel and is being turned into a screenplay by the Oscar-winning screenwriter Akiva Goldsman who has also scripted A Beautiful Mind and Cinderella Man. Rob Marshall has experiences with the Oscar as well as his debut feature Chicago scores 13 nominations and 6 wins. Above all, it is produced by the film-guru himself - Steven Spielberg (who was in talks to direct it for a long time) and it stars the absolute creme de la creme of Asian cinema: Ziyi Zhang (Hero, House of Flying Daggers, CTHD), Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai), Michelle Yeoh (CTHD), Gong Li (2046, The Emperor and the Assassin), Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa (The Last Emperor) and others. Considering the great production values of the movie (judging by the first set pics) as well as the limited early December release date of it, I'd consider it a big contender in most categories. Thanks to the techical nominations it will certainly get, it might end up as the movie with the most nominations next year.

Expect nominations for Costume Design, Art Direction, Score (it's John Williams!), Editing and also some acting noms considering such a great cast. I see Zhang Ziyi being definitely nominated as well as possibly Ken Watanabe again. Of course, I have it also pegged for Best Director/Picture.



Steven Spielberg's Vengeance (a.k.a. Untitled 1972 Munic Olympics Project):

This movie has been long talked about and Steven Spielberg was getting ready to start the shooting with Ben Kingsley and Eric Bana on board when all of sudden came the decision to go ahead with War of the Worlds. Then it was all quiet around the project and Ben Kingsley left it. However, about a month ago, Vengeance suddenly reappeared on the surface with a late December relase this year. The shooting is supposed to start in June.

The movie is based on real life tragic events of the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany, where Israeli athletes were kidnapped by a group of Palestinian militants. A movie with a plot like this one, especially with a basis in real life and directed by Steven Spielberg certainly evokes associations with Oscar Gold. War of the World seems to become one of the biggest blockbusters this year and the last time when Spielberg brought us a huge blockbuster and an overly-praised drama dealing with Jews was back in 1993 when Jurassic Park and Schindler's List came out. The similarities are obvious. Eric Bana is a very promising actor and I am sure that Spielberg will get more famous names on board of this project. After the word came out on the movie being released this year, it jumped on the top of most 2006 Oscar predictions and that well justified. Admittedly, Spielberg has been in an Oscar-slump lately, but I think he can easily recover. He has been nominated as Best Director for five times and six of his movies (Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark, The Color Purple, Saving Private Ryan, Schindler's List and E.T.) were nominated for Best Picture. Further nine Golden Globe and nine DGA nominations speak for themselves. I consider it the 2nd biggest contender after Memoirs of a Geisha and see at least around 6-8 nominations.



The New World:

Seven years after The Thin Red Line, Terrence Malick has finalized his 4th full-length feature. Terrence Malick is obviously an eccentric and extravagant director considering it took him twenty years between Badlands and The Thin Red Line. But the wait paid off and the picture was awarded with seven Academy Award nominations back in 1999 including Best Director and Best Picture. Many consider The Thin Red Line, a movie about the conflict at Guadalcanal during the second World War, one of the best war movies ever made. Terrence Malick has a certain style which is appreciated by many and his year he brings us his version of the true story of Pocahontas, called The New World. The flick depicts the clash between Native Americans and the British in the 17th century. The first teaser trailer suggest a movie of epic proportions. It stars Colin Farrell and Christian Bale who can act very well if they get thr right roles to display their acting abilities.

I am sure, it all reminds of Alexander somehow because it is also a historical epic, told by an eccentric director and starring Colin Farrell. However, I believe Terrence Malick can be trusted somewhat more. He doesn't take so much time for his movies for nothing. I see a Best Picture and especially a Best Director nomination as very likely. In fact, I am led to believe that Malick and Spielberg will duke it out for Best Director next year.


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Now having somewhat explained why I expect these three movies to be the year's big award frontrunners, it'll be fun to look back at this "analysis" in 12 months to see how far off I was

Any thoughts?

Good analysis. Other possibilities:

Ron Howard's Cinderella Man

Peter Jackson's King Kong

Ridley Scott' Kingdom of Heaven

Is The New World in the can already? Thin Red Line filmed for 7 months and the first cut came in at 6 hours.

Nope, they are doing some re-shoots at the moment. It started shooting on July 26th. The budget is apparently a mere $30 million which is $22 million less than The Thin Red Line's

There is one thing that is somewhat irritating about The New World, though. Pocahontas is apparently played by a 14-year old. While it might be historically accurate it still evokes some uncomfortable feeling :???:

It's also not necessary. There are plenty of actresses who look much younger than they really are.

For example, Kristen Bell from TV's Vernonica Mars and the film Spartan with Val Kilmer. She played a 12 year old on HBO's Deadwood.

I would put Ron Howard's Cinderella Man near the top of the list. Outside of The Missing, which was really only made because of what happened with The Alamo, he's been on fire.

You see, I think Million Dollar Baby's success in a way hurt Cinderella Man's chances, also supported by a fairly early release date.

Ya, but Lecter...

Most often, there is a movie prior to October nominated for Best Picture. It didn't happen this year, though.

I'd give Cinderella Man a chance. Elizabethtown might be a better choice, though.

I don't think the AMPAS could overlook a period biopic with Der Russell Crowe. And Rene and Paul. Akiva is an incredible screenwriter.

Indeed. He wrote Batman & Robin

I am certainly not excluding Cinderella Man. I see it as this year's Seabiscuit. Crowe and Zellwegeer both managed to garner three Oscar nominations in three years and that's quite a feat. Also boxing movies seem to go over well with the Academy.

However, the movies that I have listed in my original post are not the ones I think will get nominated, but those that have good shots at winning. I don't know what you think, but personally, I strongly doubt that two boxing movies in a row will win. As for nominations, there are of course other movies to consider as well, but as far as being the frontrunners for scoring really well, I think The New World, Memoirs of a Geisha and Vengeance have th most going for it. Cinderella will probably grab 5-6 noms, but unlikely to win much.

I am curious about The Untitled Spielberg film. Is it going to be like Greengrass' Bloody Sunday? I don't know much beyond the facts of the incident but it doesn't seem on the surface to be a wealth of material unless it is going to be like Bloody Sunday and a real time sort of in your face experiment.

I really suggest you to watch the Oscar-winning documentary One Day in September which depicts the events of the 1972 Munich Olympics very well. It is a really interesting story, but also a very controversal one. I wonder how Spielberg will deal with that.

Also, I am intrigued by the original title, Vengeance. I wonder what vengeance is meant. Maybe a hint of what happened after the Munich Olympics events...?

I've watched it on HBO before. Is Spielberg going to tackle something other than what was presented in it?

Anything about the content of the movie hasn't been disclosed yet, but I expect him to add some more Hollywood melodramatic elements of course. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing... The most interesting question is what he decides to focus on. The time during the hostage or the outcome of it with the German police lacking an anti-terrorist squad and turning down help from the Israelis...or maybe what measures were taken after that events which certainly can be very well described as "vengeance" (the documentary didn't focus on that part at all, I think).

The reason I brought up Bloody Sunday is because it's arguably the greatest depiction of a singular political event ever. And it's basically real-time. If Spielberg is going to reinact the archival footage and eyewitness accounts from the documentary, he'll need to top Bloody Sunday. But perhaps he's going for something less intimate, but the production schedule doesn't suggest that.

is Martin Scorcese "The Departed" will be released this year as well?

No, that's scheduled for 2006.

Sorry, Lecter but considering this year your pick of the Aviator was never going to win, I can't put much faith in what you think will win about next year. Your rep is tarnished.

And on Cinderella Man, this sounds very similar to your Oscar politics stance that you started was going to keep Swank from winning her second Best Actress award. And we all now the egg that splattered on that pick. So sorry but in my opinion Cinderalla Man has as much chance to win the Oscar as anything else - Don't care that it is 2 boxing movies in a row.

Goldie,

It's fairly juvenile for you to ignore what one man has to say only because he got one or two predictions wrong. Who doesn't?

Sorry, it isn't that but that was an easy Best Picture pick that he missed last year.

But that was last year.

Now on this year - my biggest problem is he doesn't have Cinderella Man as a lock - first I don't care that it is a boxing movie - and anyone who has seen the trailer knows it is a different type of movie than MDB. So again, here is throwing in his Oscar politics stance instead of what the best movie will be. I hoped that theory was killed this year with Swank's win.

And Goldie knows and is going on the line saying that Cinderella Man is a lock for an Oscar nomination.

Very good goldie. You've shown yourself to be a true oscar predictor. Now please, if you have no respect for someone's opinions and wish to take every opportunity to blast them, please leave this thread.

I don't think the New World has a chance, Bale and Farrel are pretty mediocre at best, and often bad actors. The other two listed in the original post are definite possibilities though.

Some other likely top contenders. Of course everything depends on how things turn out, if people are on their game or not.

All the King's Men Based on an acclaimed novel. Written and directed by Zaillian (who previously directed the critically praised Searching for Bobby Fisher and wrote the praised Schindler's List). It has academy darlings galore in it: Jude Law, Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Patricia Clarkson, Anthony Hopkins.

Jarhead Highly topical subject, first person acclaimed novel of Marine in first gulf war. Directed by Sam Mendes (Mr Winslet), and starring Jake Gyllenhal, it has academy favorites Jamie Foxx and Chris Cooper in big supporting roles.

Interesting - Lecter says it is a LOCK and Gates says it is NOT.

Who do you believe?

Based on past performance, I have to lean to ....... he he

Here are the top 13 films for 2006 Oscar contention by CNN.com
(in no particular order)

Cinderella Man
Memoris of a Geisha
Kingdon of Heaven
War of the Worlds
All the King's Men
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (!!!)
Jarhead
King Kong
The New World
Oliver Twist
The Producers
Walk the Line
Untitled Speilberg film (the 1972 Munich Olympics....)


I think the safest bets to go are....

1. Memoirs of a Geisha (for obcious reasons already stated in about 12 threads)
2. Untitled Speilberg Project: Can you say Oscar-bait?
3. Jarhead (about time we had another American WWII movie, last high profile one was Private Ryan [unless you count Pearl Harbor])
4. Cinderella Man: Crow, Howard, Zellweger: enough said

5. I think this one will be either one of the musicals (3 of em), one of the other period pieces (2) or the star studded and directed 'All the King's Men'

Good Man Raf, another who agrees that Cinderella Man will be there.

And looks like another who disagrees that New World is a lock. Interesting.

Jarhead is about Gulf War I. It's chances though can not be ignored.