Even more reason,




A second season is coming out in January.

Another 25 episodes should lead up to Volume 10 or 11 of the manga.

What do you expect for Knight and Day?

It should be a fair mid-size hit, going up against Ooku's second weekend for a No.2 opening.

Right now I'm thinking of an opening between $2.5-3.5 million. So a total near $15 million would be doable with that start. Next Monday is a Holiday, so that'll help just a little, too.

Weekend Summary
October 2-3, 2010



1. Umizaru: The Last Message Toho $7,026,205 3 467 $15,045 -14 $56,313,392
2. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ooku) Asmik Ace $3,574,759 1 305 $11,721 0 $5,591,205
3. Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony Int'l $3,061,096 4 660 $4,638 7 $46,305,584
4. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) Toho $2,093,983 2 285 $7,347 -25 $7,446,121
5. Thirteen Assassins Toho $2,022,813 2 312 $6,483 -25 $8,719,537
6. Villain Toho $920,802 4 231 $3,986 -26 $18,224,212
7. Mobile Suit Gundam 00 - Awakening of the Trailblazer Shochiku $666,614 3 88 $7,575 -27 $6,899,342
8. Beck Shochiku $557,872 5 313 $1,782 -39 $19,302,940
9. Legend Of The Guardians: Owls Of Ga'Hoole Warner Bros. Int'l $550,297 1 421 $1,307 0 $739,797
10. Eat Pray Love Sony Int'l $472,995 3 285 $1,659 -31 $6,848,44


Umizaru 3 continues huge business, still tracking well ahead of Toy Story 3, Bayside Shakedown 3, and The Borrower Arrietty to become one of just a handful to clear $50 million after three weeks (even less to pass $55 million, maybe three before it). Late legs won't be as strong due to the time of year, but a gross of no less than $90 million seems all but certain at this point, with $100 million+ very likely. The film could hit $70 million as soon as this coming Sunday.

Ooku had an excellent opening, earning over $5 million in total over it's first three days in release. The film is set to be Asmik Ace's biggest release of the year with ease, and should approach a $25-30 million total.

Resident Evil IV added some screens this weekend, which seems to be the reason for the increase. I suspect Sony managed to persuade theaters to play the film on some of Toy Story 3's last remaining screens rather than take a risk with The Legend of the Guardians. It may see a harder than normal drop this coming weekend as a result of the increase, but now a total in the mid $50's is locked up.

Kimi ni Todoke holds quite well it's second weekend, showing little sign of frontloadness due to the sizable fanbase. The latest volume of the manga was released the same week of the movie, selling over 500,000 copies more than doubling the attendance of the film's opening, so that may have been the cause of the slightly less than expected opening, and the reason for the good hold this weekend. The film will finish close to $20 million.

Thirteen Assassins proves it's targeting an older audience having far stronger weekdays than the weekend itself. It too is aiming for $20 million.

Villain and Beck continue their strong runs, and both will soon surpass $20 million as well.

After an expected large second weekend drop for Mobile Suit Gundam 00, it manages a satisfying third weekend hold putting $10 million back into play. The film is still achieving an excellent per screen average.

I'm not sure how many screens The Legend of the Guardians opened on, but I read something days ago about 400 screens or more. If I read that correctly, the film bombed harder than even expected. An opening of at least $1 million looked reasonable. It might manage to finish with $3 million.

EDIT - 421 screen count for Legend of the Guardians.

And despite making the Top 10 in Admissions for the 12th straight week, The Borrower Arrietty falls out of the Top 10 in Gross thanks to a good hold from Eat Pray Love. The former has now grossed over Y9 billion ($108 million+) after 12 weeks, while the latter looks to finish around $8 million.

Umizaru 3 has topped 3.4 million admissions, for a 20 day total gross of Y5.15 billion ($62.5 million).

Comparisons from the Summer,

Bayside Shakedown 3, 19day total - Y4.2b ($48.3m), 3.2m admissions
Toy Story 3, 19day total - Y4,436,000,550 ($51m), 3,002,391 admissions
The Borrower Arrietty, 20day total - Y4.5b ($52.4m), 3.7m admissions

hey Corpse, how do you see Harry Potter 7.1 performing there without 3D,, does it have the chance to cross the 100m USD now that is lacking this format

No 3D was the worst possible move for it in Japan. 3D is the reason Hollywood films are grossing over $100 million again, and the reason RE4 is going to make over $50 million (may come near $60 million) almost rivaling the North American gross. Remove 3D, and both Alice and TS3 miss $100 million.

For the big event films, 3D is making up 3/4 of a films total gross in the territory.

Harry Potter really needed it because attendance drops for every film, and with the 3D boost, that wouldn't have mattered this year. It could end up outside the Top 5 Films of 2010 with this news. It's also too bad because with 3D and the exchange rate, a new opening record was possible.

The chances of $100 million are still alive though due to the exchange rate this time. HP6 grossed Y8 billion in 2009, which was $88 million then. Now, Y8 billion will get you $97 million. It probably just depends on if past fans are willing to come back for the first part of the final installment.

On the plus side, the re-release of Battle Royale in 3D should do much better (it's opening the same weekend), and Umizaru 3 is going to have a very long run now with no major 3D release until Tron.

There is also this from back in June.

The people who purchased these tickets/passes/plates are going to be pissed off.

Weekend Forecast
October 9-10, 2010



1 1 Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 4
2 N Knight & Day (Fox) 1
3 2 The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmic Ace) 2
4 4 From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 3
5 5 Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 3
6 3 Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 5
7 6 Villain (Toho) 5
8 8 Beck (Shochiku) 6
9 7 Mobile Suit Gundam 00: Awakening of the Trailblazer (Shochiku) 4
10 N Redline (TFC) 1

Monday is a holiday.

I think we're looking at a $40m decrease in gross for DH1 in Japan, something like $120m->$80m. I see a decrease in yen.

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (WB) $152.9m (20.3b yen)
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (WB) $142.8m (18b yen) -11%
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (WB) $121.6m (13.5b yen) -25%
Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire (WB) $90.49m (11.0b yen) -18%
Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix (WB) $88.36m (9.4b yen) -15%
Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince (WB) $88.46m (8.0b yen) -15%

A drop (all drops based on yen total) in yen is certainly possible without the 3D boost it desperately needed here. The drops in yen is also approx. the drop in attendance since average ticket prices have remained flat for 10 or more years now.

Another double digit drop in yen/attendance would mean a gross of about 7.2b yen (-10%), or $87/88 million like the previous films. 3D would have boosted that 7.2b yen to about 10b yen, or $121 million.

The Deathly Hallows, Part I's only chance to stop the downward spiral is to bring in old fans for the finale now. Kinda crazy admissions have dropped off by 60% between the first and last film released.

Late this week, but figures updated as of 10/4/2010.


Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Admissions




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Admissions




New Entries
i - still playing

Japan isn't really an exception when it comes to massive decreases though. Spain is worse for example (in admissions). It's just that lack of inflation in Japan makes everything look worse.

Yeah, the average ticket prices have remained pretty much the same since 1992. The lowest avg. ticket price between 1992-2009 was Y1,210 ($14.7*) in 92, while the highest avg. ticket price was in 98 at Y1,268 ($15.4*). Last year was Y1,217 ($14.8*). 2010 might beat Y1,268 due to 3D releases, who's tickets avg. about Y1,550 ($18.8*).

This makes breaking records in Japan extraordinarily difficult. I really don't see any film ever topping Spirited Away (Y30.4b), and even Titanic (Y25.9b), Howl's Moving Castle (Y22b), and Harry Potter 1 (Y20.3b) below it look near untouchable. Perhaps Miyazaki and/or Ghibli's final theatrical release would have a slim chance.

The two biggest films of the past 5 years, Ponyo and Avatar, have to combine their total numbers to even match Spirited Away. Ponyo + Avatar = Y30.9b (approx. 22m admissions) vs Spirited Away - Y30.4b (23.5m admissions).

*Converted using today's exchange rate.

From the usual locations, all drops compared to last Saturday's admissions.

The 3D behemoth Umizaru 3 is down 11.7%. If Sunday is similar, and with Monday being a Holiday, the film will likely hit Y6 billion ($72.8 million) after just 24 days in release. That'd be almost $20 million more than Bayside Shakedown 3, $15 million more than The Borrower Arrietty, and $10 million more than Toy Story 3 at the same point of time.

The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) fell by 33% . A 30/35% second weekend drop would be great.

From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) was down 29.6%, which would be another good hold.

Thirteen Assassins only dropped 23.9%. It might be able to best it's 25% second weekend drop.

Resident Evil IV dropped by 25.1%. If that too translates for Sunday, it's chances at a $60 million total will increase substantially. The total after this weekend should be about $52 million.

In Japan, the Tom Cruise/Cameron Diaz action romp opened with nearly $6m from 589 screens

Longtime international leader Resident Evil: Afterlife took an estimated $8m this weekend, including $4.5m from 2,640 screens in the 45 markets in which SPRI is distributing. The franchise installment’s best market was Japan, where it slipped just 34% in its fifth week to take $2m from 657 screens.

That's a very impressive opening for Knight and Day. Perhaps $30m total off that OW?

And another incredible feat for RE4- it looks like it may actually beat its domestic gross in Japan alone! Awesome.

That OW includes wednesday previews, so we'll have to wait and see the breakdown.

Previews tend to make up a large percentage when included into a film's opening, but $20m at the very least should still happen.

Weekend admissions drops (compared to last weekend) from the usual locations (10-15% of the market),

Saturday
Umizaru 3 -11.7%
The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) -33%
From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) -29.6%
Thirteen Assassins -23.9%
Resident Evil 4 -25.1%


Sunday
Umizaru 3 -6.7%
The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) -24.8%
From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) -18%
Thirteen Assassins -19.8%
Resident Evil 4 -24.9%

Top 10 Admission Rankings by Location (TOHO, WARNER, SHIKOKU),


TOHO


1. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 4
2. Knight & Day (Fox) 1
3. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 2
4. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 5
5. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 3
6. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 3
7. Villain (Toho) 6
8. Senna (Toho/Towa) 1
9. Beauty and the Beast (3D re-release) (Disney) 1
10. Eat, Pray, Love (Sony) 4

http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html


WARNER and SHIKOKU to follow later tonight.

SHIKOKU


1. Knight & Day (Fox) 1
2. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 4
3. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 2
4. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 5
5. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 3
6. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 3
7. Villain (Toho) 5
8. Live-Broadcast Rebocon (2010) 4 "Red", Katekyo Hitman Reborn Character Concert (??) 1
9. Legend of the Guardians: Owls of Ga'Hoole (WB) 2
10. Police Dog Dream (Shochiku) 9

http://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/cinema/ranking/

Rebocon is a character concert (voice actors of the anime Katekyo Hitman Reborn perform songs from the anime, and original songs) that has been growing more popular each year. It was broadcast live in 11 theaters nationwide on the 10th.

It's honestly the best way for a concert "film" to work, allowing viewers who can't make it to the actual concert to experience it live on the big screen. Going to see a pre-recorded concert or whatever the Hannah Montana/Jonas Brothers films are seems pointless.

Rebocon (2010) 4 "Blue" (different set of characters) will be broadcast live on Nov. 14th.

WARNER


1. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 4
2. Knight & Day (Fox) 1
3. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 2
4. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 5
5. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 3

http://www.warnermycal.com/


With Warner finally reporting, the National Top 10 with some numbers should be available sometime soon (I hope). TOHO and SHIKOKU rankings are at the bottom of the last page. The Holiday is delaying things a bit.

THR reported Knight & Day opening at No.1 this weekend, but Fuji Television just reported The Last Message achieved it's fourth week on top at the box office. They also reported admissions exceeded 4 million after 24 days, which would equal approx. Y6.1 billion (about $74 million).

Umizaru 3: The Last Message:
2day total - Y956,960,566 ($11.3m), 612,211 admissions
3day total - Y1,430,954,460 ($16.7m), 939,950 admissions
6day total - Y2.25b ($26.7m), 1.5m admissions
9day total - Y3,205,745,040 ($38.1m), 2,113,264 admissions
16day total - Y4,684,974,400 ($56.3m), 3,123,278 admissions
24day total - Y6.1b ($74m) est., 4m+ admissions

Summer's Big 3 Comparison,

Bayside Shakedown 3:
23day total - Y4,599,620,600 ($52.6m), 3,531,063 admissions
25day total - Y4.7b ($53.8m), 3.6m admissions

Toy Story 3:
23day total - Y5,411,249,060 ($62.8m), 3.6m admissions

The Borrower Arrietty:
23day total - Y5,018,507,263 ($58.3m), 4.1m admissions


Any doubts of Umizaru 3 reaching $100 million are clearly gone now.

Weekend Rankings
October 9-10, 2010



1 1 Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 4
2 N Knight & Day (Fox) 1
3 2 The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 2
4 3 Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 5
5 5 Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 3
6 4 From Me To You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 3
7 6 Villain (Toho) 5
8 7 Mobile Suit Gundam 00: Awakening of the Trailblazer (Shochiku) 4
9 9 Legend of the Guardians: Owls of Ga'Hoole (WB) 2
10 N Elevator Death (Kadokawa Pictures) 1


Umizaru 3 only dropped 7.2% compared to last weekend, so the weekend gross should be approx. Y543 million ($6.6 million). That brings it's four week total (including Monday) to an est. Y6.05 billion ($74 million).

Knight & Day ranks 1st in admissions for the weekend, but second in gross with Y498,909,400 ($6 million) on 401,905 admissions. Strong start for the film.

More numbers later today.

Late 2010 Blockbuster Showdown

Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose ! Toho $11,080,725 1 447 $24,789 0 $11,080,725
Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose ! Toho $7,601,731 2 447 $17,006 -31 $28,242,877
Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose ! Toho $6,202,202 3 447 $13,875 -18 $42,334,920
Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose ! Toho $3,726,985 4 447 $8,338 -40 $52,619,660

The Borrower Arrietty Toho $10,352,700 1 447 $23,160 0 $10,352,700
The Borrower Arrietty Toho $6,900,995 2 447 $15,438 -33 $29,946,514
The Borrower Arrietty Toho $6,349,703 3 447 $14,205 -8 $46,030,289
The Borrower Arrietty Toho $4,475,495 4 447 $10,012 -30 $58,716,554

Toy Story 3 Walt Disney Int'l $11,034,083 1 530 $20,819 0 $11,034,083
Toy Story 3 Walt Disney Int'l $8,418,165 2 531 $15,853 -24 $27,433,692
Toy Story 3 Walt Disney Int'l $6,134,405 3 533 $11,509 -27 $44,423,787
Toy Story 3 Walt Disney Int'l $7,140,247 4 524 $13,626 16 $62,608,156 *

Umizaru 3 The Last Message Toho $11,333,086 1 467 $24,268 0 $11,313,086
Umizaru 3 The Last Message Toho $8,209,920 2 467 $17,580 -27 $38,087,440
Umizaru 3 The Last Message Toho $7,026,205 3 467 $15,045 -14 $56,313,392
Umizaru 3 The Last Message Toho $6,566,905 4 467 $14,061 -7 $69,627,262 **

*Obon Festival Week.
**Does Not Include Monday ($73,710,943 if included).


Weekend Summary will be posted soon.