if tree of life gets a release this year this year brad pitt will win best actor this year...... brad pitt will be able to put his oscar right next to Angelina Jolie's oscar

I don't think it is that no-conventional. Great example Elizabeth Taylor won for Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf which was a very messed up movie. Also Benning is in a comedy which are roles that are tougher to win.

Black Swan will be fresher than Kids so that could help Portman. It will be close.

Bening seems really really overdue, though.

Not going to happen: http://www.deadline.com/2010/09/breakin ... 1-release/.

The films getting most buzz from the most recent festivals:

127 Hours
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Social Network

At this very early stage it looks like the competition for BP will be between 127 Hours and The King's Speech. Inception's reception is too divided and TS3 is a sequel and animated. Black Swan is too weird. The Social Network really doesn't strike me as a BP winner.


True Grit of course also has a shot too.

I could definitely see The Social Network winning. The film has been called from a smart sophisticated Zodiac-like thriller to the definitive film for this generation. At least I don't see Danny Boyle winning again so soon, especially after basically sweeping everything last time; Fincher has a good shot at BD, and the film could be his The Departed.

Look like Colin Firth is the frontrunner for Best Actor, a less competitive category than Actress this year. He is kind of overdue too.

I don't know. The movie just seems too...hipster (?) to win.

I also think the Coens could pull it off. We haven't seen a "real" western winning since Unforgiven (no, not counting NCFOM here). The cast here is splendid with Brolin, Damon and Bridges and the release date is perfect.

I would love to see The Social Network win. Back in March I called it as a possible front runner. (see page 2)

That said, I also have a hard time seeing it win right now. It has a number of hurdles to cross yet before it's a "home run."

Although Its hard seeing it win, I do think Social Network has what it takes. As long as it doesn't tank and as long as True Grit isnt out of this world good.

Nothing would please me more offcourse.

It's between The Social Network and The King's Speech, though there are still several variables.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_kings_speech/

Look at this average grade!!

Judging by the reviews so far, we're looking at at least two, maybe three acing noms for The King's Speech. It is also supposedly a crowd pleaser. It'll have the Weinsteins backing it and the British fraction. Firth also looks like a likely candidate for a Best Actor win.

I suppose that makes the film a frontrunner at this point.

I like The Social Network as the front runner now that Fincher is in good with the academy. And we all know that every other Fincher movie is amazing.

1. Alien 3 2. Se7en 3. The Game 4. Fight Club 5. Panic Room 6. Zodiac 7. Curious Case

The odd numbered ones weren't awful or anything, but the evens are on another level.

Will there be ten nominations again this year?

If so - Toy Story, Inception, and The Town should all get in to play to the mainstream.

The Town is in, IMO. Super-entertaining along the lines of The Departed and Heat, glowing reviews, respected ensemble cast, big box office--it won't win, but it will be on the list.

I still doubt Black Swan's BP potential. Portman for sure, but the movie itself...

Off to a good start at IMDb too: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1504320/. Also remember BAFTA will eat this film up. I have a feeling that It will dominate there more than The Queen or even Atonement did.

I'm almost considering Colin Firth a lock to win Best Actor at this point: portraying a historical figure, the momentum from last year, and lack of competition. James Franco is going to get nominated, but he is not going to beat Firth head-to-head.

King's Speech won the audience award at Toronto, right? Believe the last two to do so were Precious and Slumdog Millionaire.

http://www.deadline.com/2010/09/the-importance-of-academy-screenings-oscar-prospects-for-the-town-lift-quickly/



There's also a schedule of upcoming Oscar screenings...

Look at The Social Network's rating:

RT: 6 reviews, 100%, 10.0 average
MC: 4 reviews, 100 average

In another word, all perfect scores so far.

Yeah, Jon already opened a RT Score watch thread in Cinemania. That's really heck of a start and even if the reviews to follow aren't as enthusiastic this shows it has definitive strong support (Citizen Kane, The Godfather, The Graduate, All the King's Men comparisons?????). Definitive nominee and early frontrunner I'd say.

It doesn't seem like Wall Street will be a big player either based on early reviews.

So what is actually left that we don't know about (quality) that could be a contender?

True Grit and The Fighter??

True Grit would have to be No Country level to pose as a serious threat.

There is Another Year, but I'm not feeling that one, as late release date (Dec 29th for it) has shown to be more of a hindrance than help with the compacted precursor schedule. Sally Hawkins could get nominated for Made in Dagenham, and it could sneak into the BP top 10. Overall though, I don't see any films we haven't known about to have BP winner potential. With both Coen Brothers and Danny Boyle having won recently, I agree with the consensus that the BP is down to The Social Network and King's Speech, with Fincher the prohibitive favorite to win BD while Colin Firth looking strong for Actor.

There was an article on Deadline about The Beaver which is apparently very very good and Gibson give s a great performance. It's directed by Jodie Foster. It's still not clear when it's coming out, but the article hints Summit might push it for this year's Oscars.