Totally agree and you can easily fudge the numbers by whatever you like to and prove your point (like he did there). I think we should stick to RS and MTC tracking this week for any indicators

Salt-47.3
Inception- 34.6
Despicable Me- 22.3
Ramona and Beezus- 14.4
The Sorcerer's Apprentice-9.3
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse-8.1
Toy Story 3-7.6
Grown Ups-6.7
The Last Airbender-4.5
Predators-3.0

I agree on this as well

Inception should be killing its buzz and with such great WOM I think Salt could be hurt very badly

I completely agree.
While twitter tracking was more on target last week than MTC, when it comes to a generic titled movie such as Salt, all bets are off. He himself said in his weekend write up that he isn't including searches for just "salt" meaning that anyone was says "I want to see salt this weekend" or "salt looks cool", all of their tweets are going uncounted.

Sure, he might have done a sample of 200 tweets to see if he's be missing much from not including just "salt" searches in his search, however 200 is hardly a large sample when we are dealing in the thousands of tweets DAILY!

I'm all for the twitter analysis adding an extra level of pre release tracking and awareness, but I think this week it just won't work...

Agreed with the above regarding tweet counts. That said, it's clear that Inception's buzz is vastly overshadowing that of Salt. The results are likely to be similar at the box office, especially considering Inception's outstanding Sunday and Monday decreases. Just a heads up, you know, for those who may be predicting Salt to take the weekend. Not saying it won't happen, just that it doesn't seem very likely.

Since twitter might be less helpful for Salt this weekend, here are some IMDB movie meters pre-open for you:

Salt: 17
Wanted: 8
Mr/Mrs Smith: 10
Bourne Id: 17
Bourne Sup: 10
Bourne Ult: 19
Inception: 4

Note sequels tend to rank worse relative to box office.

I think we could see a photo finish between Salt and Inception this weekend. I think Salt is going to play really well with older folks, who didn't exactly come out in droves for Inception and, according to Cinemascore, didn't really care for the movie.

40m+ is on the table for both, but I'd like to see Inception's Tuesday hold before saying it's probable.

Salt will make about $37 mil.

The whole 200 tweet exercise is merely to show that the search string I am using on Twitter is working well (salt movie OR angelina OR jolie OR poster OR trailer OR screening OR film OR flick OR watch OR see). The 1,354 tweets that were counted was from this search string not the estimate. Over 50% of all movies I've tracked have not had a unique enough name to just search for the title alone. Much of the data the model is built on is using search filters just like the above.

Thanks, Horlicks. Your tracking is awesome.

Do you think that SALT will open around the same as The A-TEAM?

Yeah, WTF?

They predicted 45% for Eclipse and it ended up at 51%, so mildly worrisome they predict a higher drop for Inception. This is something that will be interesting to watch and see, if it has much accuracy or is just an educated guess.

Can you send a link?

This is off-topic but there is a comparison and it's about the inception 47% drop prediction. 5 years ago, I remember that MTC predicted a drop in the 40s for wedding crashers but it ended up dropping in the 20s like Charlie was predicted to drop 62% but that ended up dropping less than 50%. Here is the proof:
Here is the link about Charlie and Wedding:
viewtopic.php?f=12&t=10662&start=50

Don't do it! I think it might be a trick. I am not sure eating musty shit is a good thing, otherwise why would people state, "That's some stale shit." I always thought it sounded like it was bad. I don't think shit is like wine, where it gets better with age.

Yay for main site articles!!!

http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/buzz-lo ... ption.html

Except Avatar made most of its money from 3D and SH all from 2D. Avatar dropped 25% in 2D, compared to under 10% in 3D. If a movie opened in $40-45m (in SH's place) maybe it would have only dropped in the 15-20% range. Remember this movie Avatar had pretty good wom, too. They did not have to compete head to head as much. If Inception holds extremely, well that will cut into Salt some. If Salt opens well, that will cut into Inception's hold some. They can co-exist to some degree, but not the happy medium AV and SH had due to the 2D/3D split.

Agreed

I'm predicting Inception $37.5m and Salt at $36.2m.

i totally understand what you were doing with the exercise and why, and it makes sense. But I don't personally think it's a large enough sample to determine if posts are being made such as "Salt on Friday" or "can't wait for Salt", which could be skewing results one way or another, and I was just pointing out that you said so yourself on you Sunday post.

Anyways, having said that I did not realise that you post on this board!
That's awesome!

As I also said in my posting, your analysis for Inception was better than even MTC last week.
I do enjoy reading your updates, but I do have reservations on the accuracy of the tweet count when it comes to titles which are so generic such as salt. It just makes it much harder to narrow down.

For sure man. I hear you, gives me grief also. Its a work in progress We all have our good weeks and bad weeks. Trick is to string many together in a row.

What shits me is that Salt should have opened a week later, better for both films.

Yeah, it would've really made more sense to have moved Salt to next week and kept Dinner for Schmucks on this date.

But I guess Sony didn't want to release two movies on back-to-back weekends.

Back to Back to Back... they have Eat, Pray, Love the weekend after The Other Guys...

Excellent point and I completely agree with the 2D and 3D difference, I remember we had similar discussions on SH's OW as well. Even then I still think that both of them were having holiday weekend and then were operating on a much bigger scale. I mean both of them could be equal to or less than Avatar's second weekend unless Salt breakouts or Inception has a godly hold.

In case of Inception and Salt I think both can have 35m and will be competing for the weekend crown