Notes:

Of all the times a storm has to come...

The tropical storm/typhoon will most likely affect Toy Story 3's walk-in sales. If the typhoon continues on its path right now, beating Shrek 4's opening weekend could be a challenge.

Showings this week at 3 theaters:

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese) - 21 showings	Ocean Heaven - 2 showings (down from 4 on Wednesday)	Break Up Club
Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 6 showings	Twilight 3: Eclipse - 2 showings (down from 7)	Triple Tap
The Fantastic Water Babes - 2 showings	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese) - 1 showing (down from 10)	Flirting Scholar 2
	Predators - 6 showings (down from 11)
	La Comédie Humaine - 5 showings (down from 8)

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 24 showings	Predators - 7 showings (no change)	Triple Tap
	Shrek: Forever After (3D English) - 3 showings (down from 13)	Knight And Day
		Sex And The City 2
		Twilight 3: Eclipse
		Chloe

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese) - 18 showings	Ocean Heaven - 2 showings (down from 4)	Shrek: Forever After (3D English)
Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 7 showings	Twilight 3: Eclipse - 2 showings (down from 5)	Triple Tap
	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese) - 2 showing (down from 7)	Knight And Day
	Predators - 6 showings (down from 11)
	La Comédie Humaine - 4 showings (down from 7)

Other places (Toy Story 3 watch):

Palace IFC - 23 showings (English)
Festival Walk - 17 showings (Cantonese), 14 showings (English), 31 showings combined

Toy Story 3 opening day watch

Palace IFC:

9:00 AM - 19/95
9:10 AM - 50/181
9:50 AM - 89/90
11:05 AM - 32/95
11:15 AM - 27/181
11:55 AM - 47/90
1:10 PM - 19/95
1:20 PM - 29/181
1:40 PM - 22/94
2:00 PM - 62/90
3:15 PM - 24/95
3:30 PM - 31/181
3:45 PM - 16/94
4:05 PM - 73/90
5:20 PM - 21/95
5:35 PM - 42/181
6:10 PM - 72/90
7:25 PM - 62/95
8:15 PM - 82/90
9:30 PM - 45/95
9:50 PM - 14/94
9:50 PM - 33/181
10:20 PM - 68/90

Total - 979/2663 = 36.8% full

Cyberport:

3D Cantonese

9:30 AM - 74/74
11:30 AM - 240/327
11:35 AM - 13/74
1:35 PM - 68/327
3:40 PM - 82/327
5:15 PM - 60/216
7:20 PM - 71/216
9:25 PM - 49/216

Total - 657/1777 = 37.0% full

3D English

11:00 AM - 50/216
1:05 PM - 44/216
3:10 PM - 44/216
5:45 PM - 147/327
7:50 PM - 181/327
9:55 PM - 110/327

Total - 576/1629 = 35.4% full

Note: These figures were from last night so tickets sold today have not been factored in yet.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			July 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	32294	--	--
2	Predators	--	1617	--	--
3	La Comédie Humaine	--	1086	--	--
4	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese)	--	945	--	--
5	Twilight 3: Eclipse	--	718	--	--

Missing: Toy Story 3 (3D English)

What an explosive start for Toy Story 3. This nearly rivals Shrek 4's opening day numbers, however, those pre-sales were inflated because of the holiday. Audiences have been more receptive to watching Toy Story 3 in English than it was to Shrek 4. I've been seeing more theaters filled in non-business districts with Toy Story 3 than I saw with Shrek 4. Regardless, this is a fantastic number and the weekend should be even more interesting with huge numbers on the way.

In terms of the weather, it looks like mother nature will cooperate with us and will spare us the direct hit. A few people might wait until the storm passes to watch it but for the most part, Toy Story 3's opening weekend should not be affected as much as previously predicted. As for the holdovers, just plain awful for Predators, Shrek 4 and Eclipse. The only one who I'd say came through relatively unscathed is La Comédie Humaine.

When are we gonna get full opening day update?

can we expect 50k adm.?

If you factor in the English version as well, it should be close to or over 50,000 adm. right now. I'd say it has a small chance of beating Shrek 4's opening day (78,000+), but not to worry, this will be much stronger than Shrek was on the weekend leading to a bigger OW.

Toy Story 3 Saturday showings watch

Pacific Place (English) - 28 showings (incl. 4 morning shows)
Palace APM (Cantonese) - 23 showings (5 morning shows), (English) - 5 showings (1 morning)
Tsuen Wan (Cantonese) - 22 showings (5 morning shows)
Palace IFC (English) - 24 showings (3 morning shows)

Some new records in there. 4 morning shows at Pacific Place is unprecedented. Alice nor Shrek 4 had the same amount of morning shows as Toy Story 3. 28 showings too....wow. I'd say the tentpole release has finally arrived.

These number of showings and morning shows make me optimistic that it could make $2.5m OW...

sorry, but if it's not much of trouble

i'd like to see how is that 2.5m projected ow ranked amongst all time ow, yearly ow, and how is it compared with other Pixar-ers

thanks

All time OW:

1 Kung Fu Hustle $4,468,086
2 Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince $2,976,407
3 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $2,819,776
4 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $2,649,588
5 Tau man ji D (Initial D) $2,632,759
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $2,599,580
7 The Da Vinci Code $2,552,902
8 Mou gaan dou (Infernal Affairs) $2,537,255
XX Toy Story 3 $2,500,000 (est.)
9 The Day After Tomorrow $2,476,886
10 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $2,464,071
11 Spider-Man 3 $2,401,446
12 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $2,341,126
13 Night at the Museum $2,294,157
14 The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor $2,192,465
15 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $2,148,842
16 Infernal Affairs 3: End Inferno (Mou gaan dou III: Jung gik mou gaan) $2,135,257
17 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $2,126,216
18 Spider-Man 2 $2,126,185
19 Cheung Gong 7 hou (CJ7) $2,115,955
20 2012 $2,115,826
21 The Dark Knight $2,107,626
22 Avatar $2,039,648
23 Fearless (Huo Jian Jia) $2,028,535
24 Mission: Impossible III $2,026,976
25 Superman Returns $1,956,651

Depending on where the actuals fall, if it's around the estimate, it will land inside or just outside the top 10 openings of all time.

2010 OW:

XX Toy Story 3 $2,500,000 (est.)
1 Alice in Wonderland $1,902,019
2 Yip Man 2: Chung si chuen kei [Ip Man 2] $1,736,771
3 Shrek Forever After $1,555,601
4 Iron Man 2 $1,529,782
5 Clash of the Titans $1,379,653

No contest here. If Toy Story 3 even clears $2m, which looks like a good possibility, it will have the biggest OW of the year (so far).

Pixar OW:

XX Toy Story 3 $2,500,000 (est.)
1 Finding Nemo $1,623,481
2 The Incredibles $1,561,347
3 Up $1,242,934
4 Cars $957,013
5 Ratatouille $807,982
6 Wall-E $796,881

This is a lock in my eyes. Toy Story 3 will have the biggest opening weekend of any Pixar film released.

Note: No data before 2001 is available.

thanks

hope your projection comes true

it needs to overperform alice in asia (minus japan) to make up its underperforming in west euro markets

i dont see it passing alice os, just hope for 600m

	Thursday adm.			July 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	54680	--
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	16983	--
3	Predators	21082	6380	-69.7%
4	La Comédie Humaine	7116	5228	-26.5%
5	Twilight 3: Eclipse	9361	2516	-73.1%

Toy Story 3 OD admissions - 71663

Impressive for Toy Story 3. Close to Shrek 4's opening day admissions without the holiday factor. This should be able to gross over $2m with that big number. In the face of Toy Story 3, Predators and Eclipse crashed and burned. La Comédie Humaine was the only film to escape the wrath of the toys.

	Friday adm.	(so far)		July 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	30666	--
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	12052	--
3	Predators	6893	2335	-66.1%
4	La Comédie Humaine	2033	1373	-32.5%
5	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese)	6631	1109	-83.3%

That is fantastic for Toy Story 3. It is near 4 times the amount that Shrek 4 got on its second day. If the 66% trend continues for Predators, it will make $250,000 this weekend. Good for Humaine. Understandable but still awful for Shrek 4. This is what worries me and why I'm skeptical Toy Story 3 will make even $5.5m. There is way too much competition that won't allow it to cruise to that number. It'll probably make $5m now but I just don't see it beating Alice for #1 of the year.

Shrek 4 admissions vs. Toy Story 3 admissions

Day 1: 78219 / 71663



I think it will have a tough time beating Alice here. Competition for screens is the only reason why I would say it won't beat it but it really depends how well it holds up against Aftershock and Salt. It is probably a losing battle given that they expect Aftershock to do well here and Salt to perform like a typical summer action blockbuster. The battle could have been lost before it has even started.

	Friday adm.				July 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	53201	--	-2.7%
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	17841	--	+5.1%
3	Predators	20479	7981	-61.0%	+25.1%
4	La Comédie Humaine	8062	5925	-26.5%	+13.3%
5	Twilight 3: Eclipse	10725	2640	-75.4%	+4.9%

Toy Story 3 opening Friday admissions - 71042 (-0.9%)

Fantastic for Toy Story 3. Nice to see that the Chinese:English ratio for Toy Story is better than Shrek's. Not too bad for Predators considering the frontloadedness and the loss of screens. If it continues with the trend, it will fall around 60% for a $154,000 weekend. Very good for La Comédie Humaine. Just plain dreadful for Eclipse.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			July 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	48992	--	+59.8%
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	18223	--	+51.2%
3	Predators	8768	3370	-61.6%	+44.3%
4	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese)	10661	2263	-78.8%	+64.8%
5	La Comédie Humaine	2836	1566	-44.8%	+41.2%

Toy Story 3 admissions (so far) for Saturday - 67215 (+57.3%)

Amazing for Toy Story 3!!!! Not horrible for Predators and Humaine. Epic collapse by Shrek.

Shrek 4 admissions vs. Toy Story 3 admissions

Day 1: 78219 / 71663
Day 2: 21797 / 71042
2 day total: 100,016 / 142,705

Yep. I think I'll stop tracking the showdown between Shrek and Toy Story 3. No contest here. Toy Story 3 wins by a landslide.

It looks like Toy Story 3 will crack 100,000 admissions on Saturday...something that Iron Man 2 missed out on. Could it possibly hit 3 million this weekend?! If that happened, it would rank as the 2nd biggest OW of all-time.

SUPER Great for ts3

$2.5m ow is assured then?

Yes. It is assured.

I just did some quick calculations and I found out that Shrek 4 only made $645,173 opening day. I used that number to calculate Toy Story 3's OD and it came out to $591,000 but for argument's sake, let's say $590,000. Toy Story 3's 2nd day came out almost identical to OD so tack on another $590,000 as well. We are now up to $1.18m for 2 days.

Toy Story 3 has already cracked the 100,000 admissions barrier today and with an hour left to go, it should finish with around 112,000 admissions. From that number, we can make a quick estimation that Toy Story 3 will collect $922,093 just for Saturday.

Now we stand at $590,000 x 2 + $922,093 = $2.1m. If Toy Story 3 can match Saturday's admissions, which is not of the question, it will have the 2nd biggest OW of all time. Of course, these are purely speculative numbers but fun nonetheless.

Edit: Oops, it has actually cracked 112,000 admissions so that Saturday number is a little off.

def. 3m+ ow

Excellent number for TS3, it is HUGE

	Saturday adm.				July 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	86029	--	+61.7%
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	26942	--	+51.0%
3	Predators	35595	12165	-65.8%	+52.4%
4	La Comédie Humaine	13043	8312	-36.3%	+40.3%
5	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese)	23545	4315	-81.7%	+63.4%

Toy Story 3 opening Saturday admissions - 112971 (+59.0%)

Look at those admissions. I think it speaks for itself. Just pure awesome for Toy Story 3. Cracking 110,000 isn't easy. The race to $3m is on... As for the rest, every film suffered bigger drops compared to Friday. Shrek 4's hold is jaw dropping.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	54434	--	+11.1%
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	17432	--	-4.3%
3	Predators	9317	4106	-55.9%	+21.8%
4	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese)	12790	3381	-73.6%	+49.4%
5	La Comédie Humaine	3544	2088	-41.1%	+33.3%

Toy Story 3 admissions (so far) for Sunday - 71,866 (+6.9%)

Fantastic for Toy Story 3. Can't say enough about how amazing Toy Story 3's opening weekend is. Don't get too excited that Toy Story 3's Sunday number is ahead of Saturday's. It's common for early admissions to rise because Sunday is the only day where everyone gets off here. Many of the major banks and some offices opens for half a day on Saturdays. Ip Man 2 actually increased from its first Saturday to Sunday pre-sales but ended up dropping behind when finals came in. Not great for Predators. Humaine did decent and Shrek 4's drop is laughable. Toy Story 3 might have made in 3 days than what Shrek 4 did in 17 days.

I seem to think you are also one of the TS3 worshippers though I don't say that the number is alarming still Shrek had TS3 so that drop was expected. TS3 was always going to be big in HK. Shrek's opening was the biggest problem here

I don't really understand what you mean by your first statement. Anyways, I knew TS3 was going to be big. I even predicted that it would win the summer outright and that the only things stopping it were competition from Shrek and competition from films coming out after Toy Story 3. Shrek 4 was always going to have a massive opening with the holiday. It was just a matter of how well it would hold up afterwards. The second weekend proved that audiences were either waiting for Toy Story 3 or had mixed word of mouth or even both.

As for the future of TS3, I have stated in a couple of threads that I don't think Toy Story 3 can make over $5.5m and that it would be very hard to reach $6m. The amount of competition cannot be compared to other places like Japan because this is only a small market with a limited amount of screens available. Any new highly anticipated release will squash the holdovers' screens by a ton and will leave them to scramble for business as theater owners will take away the best times and biggest screens and give them to brand new releases. With Aftershock, Salt, Inception and the August 5 releases coming soon, Toy Story 3 will need to grab all it can get in these first 6 days.

Notes:

- Despicable Me moves to August 5

- In response to the Despicable Me move, Cats & Dogs 2 now occupies DM's old date - August 19.

- Aftershock special screenings started on Saturday in some places and will continue throughout the week to build up support when it comes out next weekend.

- Salt and Inception advance tickets have also been released in a couple of theaters. Inception will have special screenings next weekend on Saturday and Sunday.

could this happen?

1st wknd - 3m
wkday - 1m
2nd wknd - 1m
wkday - 400k
3rd wknd - 450k
wkday - 250k

that's = 6.1m

which will lead to about 6.3m

how would that number rank yearly & all time?

If this were to happen, it would rank #1 of this year so far. Of all-time, it's hard to gauge because BOM doesn't have any numbers before 2001. Off the top of my head, it probably wouldn't even rank among the top 20 if you include those missing Chinese films.

Your scenario doesn't seem plausible. $1m for the 3 weekdays seems much. I would say $500-700k is more likely. No one watches movies on Mondays or Wednesdays and Tuesdays is a discount day so grosses are reduced by 30%.

I have it like this:

OW - 3m
1st Weekdays - $600,000
2nd weekend - $800,000
2nd weekdays - $300,000
3rd weekend - $350,000
3rd weekdays - $165,000

which would equal to = 5.22m

4th weekend - $130,000
4th weekdays - $60,000
5th weekend - $70,000
5th weekdays - $35,000
= 5.51m

	Sunday adm.				July 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese)	--	94369	--	+9.7%
2	Toy Story 3 (3D English)	--	24771	--	-8.1%
3	Predators	30418	11705	-61.5%	-3.8%
4	La Comédie Humaine	13352	8830	-33.9%	+6.2%
5	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese)	25772	5176	-79.9%	+20.0%

Toy Story 3 opening Sunday admissions - 119,140 (+5.5%)

What an unexpected surprise. I never would have expected Toy Story 3 to increase after that huge Sunday but it almost cracked 120,000 admissions. It looks like all we have to do now is just wait for the actuals to confirm it. As for the other movies, looking at this weekend in retrospect has made me realize that it's hard to argue against that drop for Predators. A 60% drop isn't particularly great but Toy Story 3 completely sucked up everything in its sight and Predators was always frontloaded anyway so the drop seems ok for it. Pretty good for Humaine. Toy Story 3 pretty much took away all of Shrek's audience.

Note: Using Shrek 4's opening weekend multiplier, I ended up with a $3,091,538 total OW for Toy Story 3.

Monday admissions (so far) - July 19:

1. Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese) - 19732 (-63.8%)
2. Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 7418 (-57.4%)
3. Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese) - 1260 (-62.7%)
4. Predators - 1162 (-71.7%)
5. La Comédie Humaine - 989 (-52.6%)

Wow, those are superb numbers for Toy Story 3. Looks like it may do Juring's numbers after all.

That's gigantic for Toy Story 3!

I'm getting conflicting reports about where Toy Story 3 has landed in the all time OW list. Some say it's the biggest opening, the biggest animated opening, 2nd biggest opening, etc. I might need to fire off an e-mail and ask around if they have any concrete evidence on this.

Weekend of July 8-11, 2010:

1 N Predators Fox $760,039 - 45 - $16,890 $760,039 1
2 1 Shrek Forever After Intercontinental $754,304 -51.5% 52 -12 $14,506 $2,752,814 2
3 2 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse Golden Scene $336,550 -58.7% 44 -11 $7,649 $1,699,787 2
4 N La Comédie Humaine Golden Scene $270,065 - 31 - $8,712 $270,065 1
5 3 Cheung wong chi wong (Triple Tap) Lark $160,341 -66.6% 38 -3 $4,220 $799,299 2
6 4 Knight & Day Fox $71,879 -74.8% 22 -17 $3,267 $1,504,593 3
7 5 The Legend Is Born: Ip Man Newport $62,603 -59.4% 13 -14 $4,816 $838,357 3
8 N Tang Bai Hu Dian Qiu Xiang (Flirting Scholar 2) Intercontinental $38,505 - 16 - $2,407 $38,505 1
9 6 Ocean Heaven EDKO $37,393 -50.3% 14 +2 $2,671 $294,920 3
10 7 Fun sau suet oi nei (Breakup Club) Gala $33,853 -42.3% 11 -1 $3,078 $1,275,713 4
11 8 Chloe Golden Scene $7,860 -24.7% 4 - $1,965 $65,385 3
12 N Fish Tank n/a $6,143 - 2 - $3,072 $6,143 1
13 9 Sex and the City 2 WB $4,955 -21.1% 2 - $2,478 $1,373,335 5

Showings Report

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Aftershock - 6 showings	Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 12 showings (down from 21 on Wed.)	Chloe
Salt - 13 showings	Ocean Heaven - 1 showing (no change)	Predators
	Shrek: Forever After (3D English) - 1 showing (down from 4)	Twilight 3: Eclipse

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Aftershock - 6 showings	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese) - 9 showings (down from 17)	Predators
Salt - 10 showings	Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 13 showings (down from 14)
Furry Vengeance - 3 showings	Ocean Heaven - 1 showing (down from 3)
	Twilight 3: Eclipse - 1 showing (down from 2)
	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese) - 1 showing (down from 2)
	La Comédie Humaine - 1 showing (down from 5)
	Shrek: Forever After (3D English) - 1 showing (no change)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Aftershock - 6 showings	Toy Story 3 (3D Cantonese) - 12 showings (down from 18)	Ocean Heaven
Salt - 12 showings	Toy Story 3 (3D English) - 5 showings (down from 7)	Predators
Furry Vengeance - 3 showings	Shrek: Forever After (3D Cantonese) - 2 showings (down from 3)	Twilight 3: Eclipse
	La Comédie Humaine - 2 showings (down from 3)