I think badass movies this summer are not doing that well. A-Team looked pretty badass action movie still I think if the summer goes in the same trend this will open somewhere between 25-27m

Why are people still comparing this. The A-team looked like shit (I said it looked like Charlies Angels too with its ridiculousness, and people don't really understand that Mr. T is what is remembered, not the show.) The losers looked terrible and had no star power. Expendables is getting unfairly compared to those two films and Kick Ass, which was also terribly marketed as a teenage geek movie. It is not CGI overridden or looking like an action comedy. It is looking like a real action film of old with a Valentines Day or Ocean's Eleven caliber cast of well known actors in a variety of different ways. There is no competition whatsoever, and moved because of how strong August is for action films nowadays, and is getting a huge marketing push on male oriented programming. This film needs to make over 30 to not be considered a disappointment, but I think it has that in the bag and will open between Gi Joe and Inglorious Bastards. I see a 70+ total and O, this will make over 250 million WW

Right now, I'll say:

$19m OW / $45m total

No way this doesn't pass $50 million in total.

BKB the budget is 70 million, Which is very low considering the caliber of talent involved. Even if it disappoints here its still going to turn a profit for the studio as its at least making 125 million overseas.

I would be very disappointed on my own level if this failed to barely pass Rambo despite its great WOM and awesome DVD sales.

I think I know what inspired Trekfan's low prediction - http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stori ... forecast-2. Looks like boxoffice is going with the same amount, but seriously it's obvious that they are going low because of those high Kick-Ass predictions. But, why exactly is this being compared to KA ? Also Rambo 4 did around the same amount comig off a dying franchise and a terrible third movie. I just can't imagine in the slightest bit this doing Rambo numbers considering the huge cast, strong promotion and perfect August release.

I still think that the fundamental problem with this film's B.O prospects is that the film itself doesn't look good.

It could have the biggest cast ever, but if the movie doesn't look appealing, then the cast is usually of little help. And the marketing so far has been very underwhelming. Again, they try to sell the cast, but have forgotten about the movie itself.

I can easily see this grossing under 50 million.

Eh, I don't think any of the Ocean's Eleven/Twelve/Thirteen movies had great trailers...they were all sold on cast.

The marketing for Ocean's Eleven made the film itself look good. It looked funny, cool and stylish, with charming characters and an appealing premise. All that AND big stars.

So far expendables hasn't really shown any selling points besides its cast.

The other two movies you mentioned were sequels to a very well liked hit movie, which obviously puts them to a different position.

Valentine's Day would be a better comparison, but that was a gimmick based on the release date.

I like the musical choices in the TV-spots, thought. Going for classic, old school rock songs is a smart idea, as it sells the whole nostalgia aspect. They should have done that with the trailer. But "Boys are back in town" and "rock and roll all nite" might actually give the film extra 10-15 million at the B.O.

Actually, I hadn't seen that until now. I went with $19m based on how well Stallone/Li/Statham films open on average over the last 10 years. No actual math, I just looked at the numbers and felt $19m was about right. I will probably go higher as the weeks draw on.

You can't just use one actors potential in this case. Stallone's last film opened to 18 million on its own in February, add a few more just for being in August. Stallone appeals much older now, while Lee and Statham go younger and more urban crowds. Stone Cold and Randy Couture have their own followings that would want to see them in a film, and you still have Mickey Rourke bringing in class, Bruce Willis who always sells action films, and Arnold in his first badass role (Albeit lying that its bigger, though Vin Disel was heavily shown in Tokyo Drift trailers too) in 7 years. I would say 25 for Stallone, Arnold, and Willis in the same movie, 10 for Li and Statham, 5 for Stone Cold and Couture, and 3 for Rourke (And I can add them because they do have very different fanbases despite all being action oriented) which comes to 43 million open. Who knows though Terry Crewes has a popular show on TBS now too that helps urban audiences even more.

Im starting to think this has more than massive outbreak potential, considering the underperformance of many shitty looking action films, I would not be shocked if this came close to touching the August Record and did 60+ opening weekend. And I think the TV spots are perfect, and the first trailer had awesome looking action and one liners, the kind I'd expect from this movie.

I didn't use one actor's potential, I used the three main actors (Stallone, Li, Statham), did an approximate average of their starring vehicle OWs in my head (I figured about $13m), and added a few million on top of that. (Like I said, no actual math was involved, lol!) I did not include Willis' or Arnold's movies in the mix since they only have cameos in the movie (though some moviegoers will no doubt flock to see them share the screen with Stallone for the first time). Given the players involved and their appeal to various age groups, I'm sure the movie will open to $25m+; I just didn't think about all that when I glanced over the Stallone/Li/Statham numbers. Basically, my $19m "prediction" was a quick, uneducated guess. :-P

The tv spot focused so heavily on Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger that it almost seemed like they were leads in the movie. Should result in a huge OW especially among the older audiences who don't follow Internet to know that they're only cameos.

I hope they make a sequel that Arnold could have a huge role in.

They need some fresh faces for the sequel (as in: more older action stars!).

From Deadline -Sly's 'The Expendables' Tracking Very Big

Lionsgate and Sylvester Stallone could sure use a hit when it opens August 13th. But what an irresistible concept seeing Stallone directing and starring with Jason Statham, Jet Li, Randy Couture, Mickey Rourke, Dolph Lundgren, Steve Austin, Terry Crews, and even Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger (for nanoseconds). It's the kind of old school camp that the action box office needs. So what will it make? My box office gurus are predicting at the very least $30+M and maybe as much as $40M because it's R-rated, only 2D, but helped by a short running time of only 1 hour, 43 minutes

Link - http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/. Sounds like it will deffentially be the Inglorious Basterds of 2010.

Not the same genre, but it'll have the opening around the mid-August R rated successes such as 2003's Freddy vs. Jason, 2007's Superbad, and last year's Inglorious B******ds & District 9. I predict an opening of at least 35 million.

Yeah I was talking about opening not genre. It looks like it will open VERY close to D9 and IB from last year.

It's going to be so immensly frontloaded....I would not rule out an $18-20 million opening day.

Seems like we're looking at a $48 million opening week - terrific!

Terrific performance so far.

It is tracking almost $3 million ahead of Freddy vs. Jason which had a similar opening and went on to finish with $82.6 million. I'd say that at least $90 million is guaranteed now.

It's right up there with The Other Guys right now, if it can hold like that one did in its third weekend I think it has a very good chance to pass Robin Hood. Still can't wait for some full overseas numbers. It might have a chance at 300 WW

If it manages to drop less than 50% the upcoming weekend, then $100+ million is happening, yep.

Expect the sequel by 2012.

The Expendables vs. Freddy vs. Jason vs. Inglourious Basterds vs. District 9 vs. Robin Hood

Movie - Weekend Gross - Change - Theatres - Per-theatre-average - Total Gross


WEEKEND 1:

The Expendables - $34,825,135 - NEW - 3,270 - $10,650 - $34,825,135

Freddy vs. Jason - $36,428,066 - NEW - 3,014 - $12,086 - $36,428,066

Inglourious Basterds - $38,054,676 - NEW - 3,165 - $12,024 - $38,054,676

District 9 - $37,354,308 - NEW - 3,049 - $12,251 - $37,354,308

Robin Hood - $36,063,385 - NEW - 3,503 - $10,295 - $36,063,385



WEEKEND 2:

The Expendables - $16,968,032 - -51.3% - 3,270 - $5,189 - $65,357,117

Freddy vs. Jason - $13,152,967 - -63.9% - 3,014 - $4,363 - $61,197,607

Inglourious Basterds - $19,303,653 - -49.3% - 3,165 - $6,099 - $73,022,841

District 9 - $18,213,546 - -51.2% - 3,050 - $5,972 - $72,804,317

Robin Hood - $18,769,220 - -48% - 3,505 - $5,355 - $66,165,690



WEEKEND 3:

The Expendables - $9,527,937 - -43.8% - 3,398 - $2,804 - $82,040,183

Freddy vs. Jason - $7,111,236 - -45.9% - 2,929 - $2,427 - $72,395,735

Inglourious Basterds - $11,629,394 - -39.8% - 3,358 - $3,463 - $91,825,002

District 9 - $10,270,435 - -43.6% - 3,180 - $3,230 - $90,383,712

Robin Hood - $10,405,705 - -44.6% - 3,373 - $3,085 - $83,125,570

____________________________________________________________________________

I'd say The Expendables is definitely tracking for a $100+ million finish now and there's a chance that it'll end up above Robin Hood's total.