6/4/2010: 21st Anniversary of Tiananmen Square Crackdown



An estimated 150,000 people turned out for the candlelight vigil at Hong Kong's Victoria Park to mark the 21st anniversary of the military crackdown on the pro-democracy movement at Tiananmen Square in China.

PS Does this have any impact on Friday's box office?

Long overdue...

Weekend of May 27-30, 2010:

1. Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time Walt Disney Int'l $728,075 1 42 $17,335 0 $976,764
2. Nodame Cantabile The Movie II Panasia Films $226,943 1 22 $10,316 0 $299,632
3. Remember Me Golden Scene $135,970 1 20 $6,799 0 $189,545
4. Once a Gangster Newport Ent. $119,438 2 30 $3,981 -56 $542,604
5. Ip Man 2 Mandarin $84,475 5 35 $2,414 -79 $5,431,423
6. Nightmare On Elm Street, A Warner Bros. International $82,823 2 31 $2,672 -76 $550,030
7. Daybreakers Sundream $78,163 1 18 $4,342 0 $117,732
8. I Love You, Phillip Morris Lark Films $46,930 2 12 $3,911 -60 $219,037
9. Robin Hood Universal Int'l $40,573 3 16 $2,536 -81 $772,136
10. Iron Man 2 Paramount Int'l $26,499 5 19 $1,395 -87 $3,764,659

Notes:

Prince of Persia extended by one more week in IMAX. Last show is now June 16th.

Avatar's run on the 4D screen has been off and on. Well with Prince of Persia underperforming, Avatar is back on in 4D.

Advanced ticketing has been released for Aftershock in the smaller IMAX theatre. I'm not sure if the bigger IMAX theater will follow suit though.

Advanced ticketing for Shrek: Forever After has also been released in both IMAX theatres. It's possible that the bigger IMAX theater is waiting to see how Shrek performs before it makes a decision on whether to show Aftershock or not.

Sex in the City 2 has been doing brisk business in the business areas. So much so that one theater has 4 screens dedicated to it for the 9 pm show on Friday due to high demand. It'll be interesting to see how well it holds up during the weekend and next weekend.

Beware...this will be a long post.

Release Date	Movie Title
June 3	Green Zone Gallants From Paris With Love Goemon About Her Brother
June 10	Sex And The City 2 The A-Team Ex How To Date An Otaku Girl
June 15	Season Of The Witch
June 16	Breakup Club
June 17	The Runaways Exam Harmony Letters To Juliet Hot Tub Time Machine Where Got Ghost? Always - Sunset On The Third Street Always - Sunset On The Thrid Street 2 Piranha
June 24	Knight And Day The Legend Is Born - Ip Man Ocean Heaven Chloe Killer Bride's Perfect Crime

Added: Where Got Ghost?, Chloe, Always - Sunset On The Third Street I and II, Piranha, Killer Bride's Perfect Crime
Removed: Triple Tap, Eclipse, Shrek 4 (releasing in July)

July release dates:

Release Date	Movie Title
July 1	Triple Tap Twilight 3: Eclipse Shrek 4: Forever After
July 8	Predators Flirting Scholar 2 La Comédie Humaine (Cantonese movie)
July 9	Memoirs Of A Teenage Amnesiac
July 15	Toy Story 3 Inception The Fantastic Water Babes
July 22	Aftershock Salt
July 23	Liar Game
July 29	The Last Airbender My Rainy Days

Moved: Inception

Inception is the big story here. Moving up to face off against a beloved franchise wouldn't be one might expect but with Aftershock taking one of the IMAX screens (and with the possibility of taking 2), the threat is minimalized now that Inception has moved up a week. This will allow Inception to play in IMAX for one week in two IMAX theaters and more if it performs well in the bigger IMAX theatre. There is one small problem though...Shrek 4 has already booked both IMAX screens on July 1. Depending on how it does on the bigger IMAX screen, Inception may lose out on IMAX altogether. Now onto the regular battle, Inception is a newcomer going up against a popular animated sequel. If ticket sales for Toy Story and Toy Story 2 were any indication, Inception will have an uphill battle to climb if it wants to snatch #1 away from Toy Story 3.

I think this is a terrible move for all of the big 3 (Toy Story 3, Inception and Aftershock). The only one who will benefit may possibly be Salt. First of all, having Inception the same weekend as Toy Story 3 hurts each other and the dueling for IMAX screens between Inception and Aftershock will dilute whatever advantage that Inception may have had moving up. Also, since Toy Story 3 and Inception are coming out the same week, audiences who will watch both may decide to catch the other movie they didn't watch the second weekend leaving Aftershock and Salt out. However, if Inception turns out to be as good as advertised, Salt may be the one left out.

Other highlights - release dates:

The Karate Kid - August 5
Step Up - August 6
Street Dance - August 20

Who schedules these? I swear...some of the scheduling is ridiculous. Avatar vs. The Karate Kid should be interesting to watch though. Also, Step Up vs. Street Dance will be another nice battle as both are vying for people's attention with the added bonus of them being in 3D.

	Thursday adm.			June 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	15357	--
2	The A-Team	--	11284	--
3	Ex	--	4998	--
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	2663	--
5	Gallants	--	2318	--

I thought Sex And The City was going to run away with this but A-Team managed to win afternoon and walk-in sales by almost 3000 admissions. Ex did pretty well too.

	Friday adm.	(so far)		June 11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	10828	--
2	The A-Team	--	3885	--
3	Ex	--	1421	--
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	1129	--
5	Gallants	--	964	--

Pretty good for Sex And The City 2. The A-Team had a solid increase from its Thursday presales. It should bode nicely for the final admissions for Saturday. Prince of Persia and Ex will probably end up swapping spots by day's end. Ex beating its Thursday's admissions will be hard to achieve as it needs a 3.52 multiplier to do so.

Weekend of June 3-6, 2010:

1. Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time Walt Disney Int'l $396,013 2 42 $9,429 -46 $1,372,777
2. Green Zone Universal Int'l $271,121 1 33 $8,216 0 $271,121
3. Gallants Newport Ent. $196,593 1 28 $7,021 0 $196,593
4. Remember Me Golden Scene $63,950 2 19 $3,366 -53 $253,495
5. From Paris With Love Golden Scene $61,797 1 21 $2,943 0 $61,797
6. Daybreakers Sundream $35,453 2 15 $2,364 -55 $153,184
7. Once a Gangster Newport Ent. $34,776 3 20 $1,739 -71 $577,381
8. I Love You, Phillip Morris Lark Films $26,850 3 8 $3,356 -43 $245,887
9. Ip Man 2 Mandarin $25,485 6 22 $1,158 -70 $5,456,908
10. Robin Hood Universal Int'l $20,133 4 9 $2,237 -50 $792,269

Where is Nodame Cantabile?

1 1 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time Disney $398,890 -45.4% 51 -9 $7,821 $1,378,890 2
2 N Green Zone EDKO $271,277 - 36 - $7,535 $271,277 1
3 N Da lui toi (Gallants) Newport $206,581 - 30 - $6,886 $206,581 1
4 2 Nodame Kantâbire: Saishuu-gakushou - Kouhen Panasia $108,013 -62.9% 24 +1 $4,501 $470,844 2
5 3 Remember Me Golden Scene $66,571 -52.3% 19 -1 $3,504 $259,518 2
6 N From Paris with Love Golden Scene $62,263 - 25 - $2,491 $62,263 1
7 4 Fei saa fung chung chun (Once a Gangster) Newport $35,426 -70.5% 21 -11 $1,687 $580,850 3
8 7 Daybreakers Panasia $33,295 -57.1% 13 -6 $2,561 $150,034 2
9 8 I Love You, Phillip Morris Lark $26,350 -44.6% 8 -4 $3,294 $244,971 3
10 5 Yip Man 2: Chung si chuen kei Newport $25,458 -70.2% 21 -19 $1,212 $5,548,071 6
11 9 Robin Hood EDKO $20,031 -51.4% 8 -7 $2,504 $790,816 4
12 6 A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) WB $15,757 -81.3% 10 -19 $1,576 $563,744 3
13 N Otôto (Younger Brother) -- About Her Brother Panasia $13,256 - 4 - $3,314 $13,256 1
14 10 Iron Man 2 Intercontinental $8,603 -67.2% 5 -15 $1,721 $3,754,545 6
15 11 Dream Home EDKO $7,681 -42.3% 7 - $1,097 $371,707 4
16 12 Greenberg EDKO $7,591 -37.5% 2 - $3,796 $24,536 2
17 N Goemon n/a $5,999 - 11 - $545 $5,999 1
18 15 Hero of the Rails Deltamac $2,554 -44.2% 2 -3 $1,277 $49,097 3
19 13 The Bounty Hunter Sony $2,302 -76.7% 5 -5 $460 $300,193 4
20 14 La refuge Golden Scene $1,408 -78.5% 2 -2 $704 $10,422 2
22 20 The Private Lives of Pippa Lee EDKO $135 -91.5% 1 -1 $135 $42,448 4

Variety probably fell asleep at the wheel and forgot to include Nodame.

Pretty good drop for Persia. Looks like people were waiting on reactions from others to see if they should go watch it. Green Zone had a pretty standard opening. Gallants had the most suprising opening out of any new release while From Paris With Love failed to ignite the box office. Nodame had its standard over 60% second weekend drop just like the first film. It'll be hard for it to pass the first film's total as Sex And The City 2 and The A-Team are dominating almost all of the screens leaving little for other films. Remember Me had a modest drop although I'm sure everyone is waiting for Eclipse to come out. Ip Man 2 will be hard pressed to pass Alice's total now. That ugly 70% drop made sure of it.

	Friday adm.				June 11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	17020	--	+10.8%
2	The A-Team	--	12376	--	+9.7%
3	Ex	--	4747	--	-5.0%
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	3535	--	+32.7%
5	Gallants	--	2107	--	-9.1%

The new column stands for daily % difference. It will indicate how well a movie is performing on a daily basis.

Not surprised that Sex managed to increase over A-Team. Friday night is the perfect time for them to go and see a movie. Saturday will be very close and I expect A-Team to win on Sunday.
Ex managed to decrease from its opening day although it was very close. Still, that is going to be one terrible internal multiplier.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			June 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	12133	--	+12.1%
2	The A-Team	--	6493	--	+67.1%
3	Ex	--	1688	--	+18.8%
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	1513	--	+34.0%
5	Gallants	--	1028	--	+6.6%

Great increase for A-Team. It'll be a tight race between the two for bragging rights.

I didn't think it would be this close between SatC 2 and The A-Team. Good for The A-Team. Could its smaller daily increase be due to World Cup opening? Very good hold for Gallants.

I will post Thursday's actuals later.

I don't know about China/Hong Kong, but WC opening ceremonies are a non event around here. The first game is the opening ceremony for people here.

	Saturday adm.				June 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	23589	--	+38.6%
2	The A-Team	--	22186	--	+79.3%
3	Ex	--	6741	--	+42.0%
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	5072	--	+43.5%
5	Gallants	--	3765	--	+78.7%

Sex is showing signs of frontloading. A-Team had the biggest % gain from Friday and came close to upstaging Sex for #1 in admissions. Sex, however, will have a much larger gross than A-Team because an extra $10 surcharge was added due to the lengthy runtime. Ex had a nice recovery after yesterday's alarming number. Prince of Persia continues to bleed. Nice for Gallants.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			June 13
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	9467	--	-22.0%
2	The A-Team	--	7880	--	+21.4%
3	Ex	--	2072	--	+22.7%
4	Gallants	--	1904	--	+85.2%
5	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	1760	--	+16.3%

Pretty alarming for Sex with that 22% drop in admissions from Saturday...even with women going back to work the next day. A-Team has risen everyday in admissions so far this week. Nice surge for Gallants.

	Sunday adm.				June 13
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The A-Team	--	23713	--	+6.9%
2	Sex And The City 2	--	18635	--	-21.0%
3	Ex	--	6038	--	-10.4%
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	5368	--	+5.8%
5	Gallants	--	5019	--	+33.3%

Excellent for A-Team. It actually rose from Saturday's admissions. Understandable drop for Sex. Not great for Ex. Good for Persia and Gallants.

Notes:

Prince of Persia will (temporarily) finish its run in IMAX on June 18.

In it's place, Michael Jackson's This Is It will be shown.

	Wednesday adm.	(so far)			June 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Sex And The City 2	--	7942	--	--
2	The A-Team	--	7109	--	--
3	Break Up Club	--	3947	--	--
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	2111	--	--
5	Ex	--	1534	--	--

It's a holiday today so I thought it might be interesting to post today's admission numbers. Break Up Club opens today but is not getting that much traction with viewers. The gap between A-Team and Sex in presales is closing.

	Wednesday adm.				June 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The A-Team	--	21091	--	--
2	Break Up Club	--	15833	--	--
3	Sex And The City 2	--	14916	--	--
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	5394	--	--
5	Gallants	--	4135	--	--

That's an excellent number for A-Team. It only decreased 11% from its Sunday number. Break Up Club had a great multiplier of 4 to surpass Sex. Since it was the dragon boat festival today, most didn't know when the boat races would finish and went at the last minute as walk-ins. Terrible for Sex. It dropped 20% from its Sunday number and didn't even reach a 2 multiplier for the day.

July preview:

July 1 - Twilight: Eclipse vs. Shrek: Forever After

The summer season begins with a doozy. Vampires vs. ogres. Eclipse's predecessor opened against Avatar, the reigning all-time box office champ, and suffered greatly in its gross for it. While it opened to a blistering $700,000 compared to Avatar's $2m, the weeks after saw it declined the most out of any film that week. Its total managed to decrease from the original and it never really found its footing.

This time around, it will face competition from the get go once again as it opens against Shrek. Shrek The Third ended up bringing in the most money in the franchise, corralling $2.7m. Will Shrek continue the trend or will Shrek 4 suffer due to bad WOM over the quality of the third film?

Eclipse has the tweens and females on its side but Shrek is the first animated film to be released in the summer so far. The marketplace is bare with no animated films playing...the last one to be released was Toy Story 2 in April.

So who will win opening weekend? Shrek 3 opened to just over $1m with little competition while New Moon started with just over $750,000 against huge competition. One thing that will help Shrek is that it will be the sole movie playing in IMAX that week. Couple that with 3D, and there's no contest, Shrek: Forever After will prevail even though Eclipse will put up a good fight. I don't expect there to be a lot of backlash with Shrek. The third film suffered harsh declines later on in its run due to heavy competition: Harry Potter, Transformers not because of poor WOM. It seems that the quality of the third film had little effect on its box office so it will be surprising if the 4th Shrek film stumbles because of it.

Prediction:

OW - Shrek: Forever After
Total - Shrek: Forever After

July 8th is a holdover week as no big releases are coming out that week. July 15, 22 and 29 previews still to come.

Weekend of June 10-13, 2010:

1 N Sex and the City 2 WB $606,222 - 59 - $10,275 $606,222 1
2 N The A-Team Fox $533,664 - 47 - $11,355 $533,664 1
3 N Chin do (Ex) Lark $161,749 - 19 - $8,513 $161,749 1
4 3 Da lui toi (Gallants) Newport $137,768 -33.3% 30 - $4,592 $438,195 2
5 1 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time Disney $136,127 -65.9% 37 -14 $3,679 $1,653,103 3
6 2 Green Zone EDKO $68,141 -74.9% 30 -6 $2,271 $424,841 2
7 4 Nodame Kantâbire: Saishuu-gakushou - Kouhen Panasia $42,419 -60.7% 15 -9 $2,828 $551,163 3
8 N Fujoshi kanojo (My Geeky Girlfriend) Panasia $20,582 - 5 - $4,116 $20,582 1
9 5 Remember Me Golden Scene $16,705 -74.9% 10 -9 $1,671 $303,631 3
10 7 Fei saa fung chung chun (Once a Gangster) Newport $6,972 -80.3% 10 -11 $697 $602,655 4
11 8 Daybreakers Panasia $6,833 -79.5% 3 -10 $2,278 $178,017 3
12 6 From Paris with Love Golden Scene $6,767 -89.1% 8 -17 $846 $95,735 2
13 9 I Love You, Phillip Morris Lark $3,792 -85.6% 3 -5 $1,264 $258,831 4
14 13 Otôto (Younger Brother) Panasia $1,881 -85.8% 1 -3 $1,881 $19,013 2
15 12 A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) WB $1,877 -88.1% 2 -8 $939 $572,932 4
16 11 Robin Hood EDKO $1,682 -91.6% 1 -7 $1,682 $799,846 5
17 15 Dream Home EDKO $1,429 -81.4% 1 -6 $1,429 $376,756 5
18 17 Goemon n/a $1,391 -76.8% 2 -9 $696 $11,276 2
19 10 Yip Man 2: Chung si chuen kei Newport $1,355 -94.7% 1 -20 $1,355 $5,558,704 7
20 14 Iron Man 2 Intercontinental $1,208 -86.0% 1 -4 $1,208 $3,758,563 7
21 18 Hero of the Rails Deltamac $1,188 -53.5% 3 +1 $396 $50,619 4
22 16 Greenberg EDKO $984 -87.0% 1 -1 $984 $28,225 3

Sex and the City 2 topped this weekend's box office, raking in just over $600,000. Its opening was just slightly below what its predecessor had against tougher competition. Widely expected to be the #1 film by a huge margin, it stumbled as the weekend wore on. It lost out to The A-Team on Sunday and suffered a huge decline from Saturday to Sunday.

The A-Team somewhat overshadowed Sex's #1 opening by staying competitive. It not only increased every day during the weekend but came close to topping #1 on Saturday and flew ahead of Sex to claim Sunday. It beat out recent action/adventure films' opening weekends such as Legion, Robin Hood, Kick-Ass and From Paris With Love. It garnered the biggest PSA out of any release this week.

Ex was the other main newcomer and generated a healthy $8,500 PSA. Reviews for the movie were mixed.

Gallants had the best drop out of any holdover, the only one to boast a drop of less than 50%. WOM for this movie has been very positive. It will fly past $500,000 and has a chance of beating Nodame Cantabile 2's gross.

With all the attention focused on the 3 main openers, Prince of Persia declined 66%. Unless if it holds strong the next few weeks, look for the total to come in under $2m.

Green Zone suffered a big drop in the face of new competition. While it faced direct competition from The A-Team, typical war films suffer smaller drops its second week. WOM has been mostly negative.

Nodame Cantabile 2 dropped another 60% to up its total to $551,000. It's running slightly ahead of the first film and should be able to cross $600,000.

How To Date An Otaku Girl had little promotion and offered little competition to Nodame which has an established fanbase here. It opened with a bland $4,000 PSA.

Remember Me had another huge decline as Robert Pattinson fans are patiently waiting for Eclipse to come out in two weeks. Scheduling these two movies so close to each other was a mistake.

Once A Gangster suffered a big drop as attention has been turned towards Gallants. It crossed $600,000 which isn't a bad achievement.

Looks like Ip Man 2 won't pass Alice's gross.

July 15 - Toy Story 3 vs. Inception

Toy Story 3 wins.

Prediction:

Toy Story 3 OW - $2.3m
Total - $4.8m

Poor scheduling actually. Now both of them will suffer the consequences.

It would have been better if Toy Story 3 had been released this weekend instead of the middle of July.

	Thursday adm.			June 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Break Up Club	--	9228	--
2	The A-Team	11284	5463	-51.6%
3	Sex And The City 2	15357	5037	-67.2%
4	Hot Tub Time Machine	--	2249	--
5	Exam	--	1530	--

Good for Break Up Club. Decent hold for The A-Team although I was expecting it hold better. Terrible for Sex. It shows how frontloaded the series is. Poor for Hot Tub Time Machine and decent for Exam.

	Friday adm.	(so far)		June 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Sex And The City 2	10828	4952	-54.3%
2	The A-Team	3885	2866	-26.2%
3	Break Up Club	--	2640	--
4	Ex	1421	720	-49.3%
5	Hot Tub Time Machine	--	713	--

Good for The A-Team. Bad for everything else.

	Friday adm.				June 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Break Up Club	--	11905	--	+29.0%
2	Sex And The City 2	17020	8455	-50.3%	+54.8%
3	The A-Team	12376	8386	-32.2%	+66.5%
4	Hot Tub Time Machine	--	3043	--	+35.3%
5	Exam	--	2171	--	+41.9%

Break Up Club is turning into quite a performer. That's a solid daily increase given that it opened on a holiday. Not bad for Sex and good still for The A-Team. Still bad for Hot Tub Time Machine and Exam is doing ok.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			June 19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Sex And The City 2	12133	5559	-54.2%	+12.3%
2	Break Up Club	--	4494	--	+70.2%
3	The A-Team	6493	3770	-41.9%	+31.5%
4	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	1513	892	-41.0%	--
5	Hot Tub Time Machine	--	867	--	+21.6%

Big dropoff for Sex. Pretty good for Break Up Club. Noticeable dropoff for A-Team. Tomorrow's presales drop should be nearing 50%. Persia is still holding on. Hot Tub continues to do horribly.

Wow very nice for The A-Team. Big drops for Sex though that was expected. Break Up Club hmm you guys like to break up a lot it seems

Say what you will about A-Team being a disappointment everywhere else; it's not in Hong Kong. Also, a funny thing that has been happening is that Sex and the City 2 has had greater presales than A-Team but A-Team either closes the gap or overtakes Sex on the day of the showing. Another funny thing is that Sex is the one getting cut from theaters not A-Team which is somewhat surprising because it's been doing excellent business in some places.

Inception has now moved to July 29 (third time it's been moved in July). Going up against The Last Airbender.

July 22 - Aftershock vs. Salt vs. Toy Story 3's second weekend

Chaos. Death. Heartbreak. That will be the feature story this weekend as Aftershock is poised to take the reigns from Toy Story 3. The Chinese epic disaster flick hopes that its sentimental story will draw people in and that WOM will spread to more reluctant groups to capture their money as well. Originally, Aftershock was set to be released on July 29 but then moved to July 22 which, at the time, would have seen a 3-way battle between itself, Salt and Inception. Inception moved (twice) and so now Aftershock will only have face off against Salt and Toy Story 3's 2nd weekend.

Aftershock is the wildcard. The success or failure of this movie will determine how much the other movies will gross. If this movie is a success, Toy Story 3 will suffer a big drop in its second weekend and Inception will most likely have trouble getting a high opening. If this movie turns out to be a dud, well...more money for Toy Story 3 and Inception to gain.

Aftershock will be getting the IMAX treatment for sure, however, it's not certain if it will get just 1 or both IMAX screens. Also, the IMAX pre-sales have been disappointing so far so it will have to pick up the pace if it wants to contend for #1 this weekend.

Question marks remain though. How will the general public receive this movie? It is poised to become a huge hit in China but will it be shunned here because of the storyline or because we are partly desensitized to the whole situation (ie. it didn't happen in our backyard) or will some other reason factor into the success or failure of this movie? It isn't just Aftershock that has some questions that need to be answered. Salt has questions of its own that need to be answered as well.

Salt will be the first foreign action thriller in a month to be released. While it has its own target audience to itself, its opening is sure to be dwarfed by the other big guy in the room. The main question that is being posed is how well will Salt fare when a similar movie will be released just one week later? Will audiences shun this "inferior" movie in favor of a cooler, slicker looking film?

These unanswered questions make it somewhat hard to predict both films. In Aftershock, this is the first big film that is purely Chinese made. It has the big backing but doubts remain about its capabilities. While Salt is the easier movie to predict, it has some unanswered questions that could lead to a gross that is "below expectations".

Aftershock really has many questions that can only be answered when the first numbers come in. Right now, I see anywhere from a $500,000 - $2m opening and a $1.5m - $4m total. I'll say $1.6m opening weekend and $3.6m total. It looks like it will be an above average movie that will tug on the heartstrings of many but will alienate viewers with its subject matter, somewhat foreign language, and message. General reception looks to be good so far. As for Salt, its chances are looking up considering Angelina's previous 2 action films both (Wanted, Mr. And Mrs. Smith) grossed more than $2.5m with Smith netting more than $3m. Still, it faces huge competition in its second weekend with Inception and is going up against a behemoth so to say it will match those grosses is unfounded. Most likely, it will generate between $400,000-800,000 for a $1.1-2.1m total. My guess is that it will falter with Inception, Toy Story and Aftershock and will only gross $1.2m total.

We still haven't talked about the holdover yet. Toy Story 3 will be coming off a huge opening weekend so spillover effect from opening weekend will occur. It's drop will be affected with Aftershock opening so it doesn't look like it will benefit much with the spillovers. The 3 most recent Pixar movies have all dropped below 40% in its second weekend but that happened because of little competition. To suggest the same will happen with the insane amount of competition Toy Story 3 has is ludicrous. I think Toy Story 3 will end up falling more than 50% but it wouldn't surprise me to see it fall below 50%.

Prediction:

Who will claim #1 this weekend? - Aftershock
OW - Aftershock
Total - Aftershock

	Thursday adm.			June 24
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Knight And Day	--	16615	--
2	The Legend Is Born: Ip Man	--	7684	--
3	Break Up Club	9228	7546	-18.2%
4	Ocean Heaven	--	3685	--
5	The A-Team	5463	2523	-53.8%

Good for Knight And Day. It's running 25% ahead of Prince Of Persia so far. I don't think that it will beat PoP's Saturday and Sunday's admissions though. Not great for TLIB: Ip Man. Excellent drop for Break Up Club. Ok number for Ocean Heaven but it was inflated because tickets for opening day were available for about a month in some places. The real test should come Friday. Not a very good drop for A-Team although it was hit by Knight And Day.

	Friday adm.	(so far)		June 25
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Knight And Day	--	6985	--
2	Break Up Club	2640	2307	-12.6%
3	The Legend Is Born: Ip Man	--	1734	--
4	Ocean Heaven	--	1490	--
5	Sex And The City 2	4952	1435	-71.0%

Knight And Day is running slightly ahead of Prince Of Persia on the same day. Another stunning hold for Break Up Club. Terrible number for TLIB: Ip Man but solid for Ocean Heaven. Horrible drop for Sex And The City 2.

Weekend of June 17-20, 2010:

1 N Fun sau suet oi nei (Breakup Club) Gala $471,959 - 28 - $16,856 $471,959 1
2 2 The A-Team Fox $328,853 -38.4% 41 -6 $8,021 $1,188,754 2
3 1 Sex and the City 2 WB $252,431 -58.4% 41 -18 $6,157 $1,144,706 2
4 3 Chin do (Ex) Lark $80,946 -50.0% 17 -2 $4,762 $347,101 2
5 N Exam Lark $76,566 - 12 - $6,381 $76,566 1
6 N Hot Tub Time Machine Deltamac $65,406 - 20 - $3,270 $65,406 1
7 5 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time Disney $56,441 -58.5% 28 -9 $2,016 $1,789,242 4
8 4 Da lui toi (Gallants) Newport $44,701 -67.6% 20 -10 $2,235 $559,533 3
9 7 Nodame Kantâbire: Saishuu-gakushou - Kouhen Panasia $19,592 -53.8% 8 -7 $2,449 $597,134 4
10 6 Green Zone EDKO $14,606 -78.6% 10 -20 $1,461 $475,253 3
11 N Harmony (2010) Intercontinental $13,825 - 14 - $988 $13,825 1
12 N The Runaways EDKO $11,704 - 4 - $2,926 $11,704 1
13 N Bhoot Newport $10,469 - 8 - $1,309 $10,469 1
14 N Always san-chôme no yûhi Panasia $3,784 - 1 - $3,784 $3,784 1
15 9 Remember Me Golden Scene $3,554 -78.7% 3 -7 $1,185 $314,426 4
16 N Always zoku san-chôme no yûhi Panasia $2,959 - 1 - $2,959 $2,959 1
17 - Michael Jackson's This Is It Sony $1,941 - 2 - $971 $1,169,417 34
18 13 I Love You, Phillip Morris Lark $1,317 -65.3% 2 -1 $659 $262,163 5
19 8 Fujoshi kanojo (My Geeky Girlfriend) Panasia $1,158 -94.4% 1 -4 $1,158 $30,724 2
20 17 Dream Home EDKO $702 -50.9% 1 - $702 $378,218 6
21 18 Goemon n/a $701 -49.6% 1 -1 $701 $13,073 3
22 15 A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) WB $621 -66.9% 1 -1 $621 $574,449 5
23 14 Otôto (Younger Brother) Panasia $419 -77.7% 1 - $419 $21,233 3
24 20 Iron Man 2 Intercontinental $257 -78.7% 1 - $257 $3,759,715 8

Great opening for Break Up Club. It'll have no problems reaching $1m with this week's admission numbers coming in. It looks like the Wednesday holiday has been lumped in with the weekend numbers so the drops are inflated.

Great drop for The A-Team considering no other film dropped less than 50%. The film is a success already and to come within a few hundred thousand of the disappointing Prince Of Persia is a feat. Also, I never expected it to come out on top of Sex And The City here.

Looks like Sex And The City 2 will gross 25-30% less than the original. Somewhat disappointing in terms of expectations. Even more worrying for WB is that they lost out to a movie many expected them to beat by a wide margin.

Ex didn't do anything remarkable or poorly in its box office run so far. It's kind of just there.

Exam had an ok opening and a solid PSA of $6,000+.

Poor for Hot Tub Time Machine. Storyline and weak trailers left audiences feeling indifferent about seeing it.

Prince Of Persia had a weak hold. Although a small percentage of the drop can be attributed to the loss of IMAX screens, that is no excuse considering it had a holiday to gain money.

After 2 weeks of good holds, Gallants came down to Earth and fell a whopping 68%. It'll finish around $600,000.

Meanwhile, Nodame Cantabile: Part 2 had a good hold considering its frontloaded nature and will pass $600,000 next week. At least it won't have the distinction of decreasing from its predecessor.

Green Zone had a terrible hold once again. Looks like the run-of-the-mill movie will finish with less than $500,000. Less than The Hurt Locker.

Harmony suffered the foreign language curse. Pitiful PSA.

The Runaways, Bhoot, Always I and II didn't generate any interest.

Michael Jackson's This Is It was re-released on IMAX screens this week but interest was low considering the terrible PSA it got.

All the synopses for the IMAX movies now begin with the tagline: "IMAX fever this summer". With the release schedule as it stands right now, I'm pretty sure that means Toy Story 3 and Aftershock will only get a one week release in IMAX and Inception will get a longer release period unless if it does poorly or if an IMAX-able film opens the next week. Shrek 4 looks to be good for 2 weeks while Eclipse will get nothing (IMAX theatre owners are opting to show Shrek instead of Eclipse). Toy Story 3 in IMAX for one week has been confirmed.

As of now, IMAX stands like this:

Shrek Forever After (English + Cantonese) - both IMAX screens (July 1), Eclipse - no IMAX screens
Toy Story 3 (English + Cantonese) - both IMAX screens (July 15)
Aftershock (Putonghua) - one IMAX screen (July 22)
Inception - ? IMAX screen(s) (July 29)

In other news, opening day for Eclipse is now available for advanced ticketing. This is even happening at the most expensive theaters which is remarkable considering this did not happen during the Iron Man/Ip Man battle, when Avatar was released, when Alice In Wonderland, The Dark Knight, New Moon or other tentpole films opened. I wonder who blackmailed them what spurred them to change their rigid procedure.

Do subtitled or dubbed versions do better in HK?

If you meant IMAX, it depends on the location. The smaller IMAX theatre is located far away from the business district which means less foreigners live there so the dubbed version is almost always shown but the bigger IMAX theatre is close to the business district so more foreigners/westernized Chinese people like to watch movies subbed.

On the whole though, I would say that subbed has a slight advantage because it gets more showtimes than its dubbed counterpart at the bigger IMAX theatre. Also, the bigger IMAX theatre is twice the size of the smaller one so even the smaller IMAX theatre + a few showtimes at the bigger IMAX theater may not be enough.

If you meant subbed or dubbed movies in general, dubbed always wins. They have more cinemas at more locations while the subbed only has a few locations here and there.

I meant in general.

Thanks for the information.

Friday adm.				June 25
Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
Knight And Day	--	17857	--	+7.5%
Break Up Club	11905	7261	-39.0%	-3.8%
The Legend Is Born: Ip Man	--	6435	--	-16.3%
Ocean Heaven	--	4103	--	+11.3%
The A-Team	8386	3462	-58.7%	+37.2%

Ok for Knight And Day. Weekdays are going to be inflated but weekends will suffer as a result. That number is not anything spectacular. The number that it is aiming for is Prince Of Persia's opening weekend but it won't reach that amount especially when it is not in IMAX. Still good for Break Up Club. Terrible decrease in daily % and number for TLIB: Ip Man. To fall 16% from opening day to a Friday is spectacularly awful. Good number for Ocean Heaven. Terrible for The A-Team. Looks like its legs have run out.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			June 26
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Knight And Day	--	10771	--	+54.2%
2	The Legend Is Born: Ip Man	--	3570	--	+105.9%
3	Break Up Club	4494	3114	-30.7%	+35.0%
4	Ocean Heaven	--	2362	--	+58.5%
5	Sex And The City 2	5559	2015	-63.8%	+40.4%

Ok number for Knight And Day. It should be able to crack 20,000 admissions when all is said and done. Remarkable increase for TLIB: Ip Man. Friday's number was terrible but this is a surprise. Very good for Break Up Club. It is still chugging along. Decent number for Ocean Heaven. Blah for Sex And The City 2.