watched the series finale last night. it was really well done. i hope they wrap this one up though and no more movies. don't want to magic to be lost.

80m (5-day)/140m

Why on Earth would THAT many people waste their money? I'm sure they will, but why?

I dont see anything average for this one. Either over 70 5day or under 50 5day

I'm thinking...

Thursday: $20 million
Friday: $17 million (-15%)
Saturday: $14.45 million (-15%)
Sunday: $12.28 million (-15%)
Monday: $8.6 million (-30%)

5-Day: $72 million

It could easily worse. BOM polls show it only being about as 80% strong as the first one.

Not sure the polls will really give us anything here. New Moon's BOM poll was only 30% stronger than Twilight, but it opened more than 100% higher. The composition of BOM's visitors also appear to change over time and has become more young male centric currently, and as a result, it inflates the poll numbers for film like MacGruber and deflates the ones for romantic comedies (and they were the weaker polling ones to begin with).

Good point.

Polling a specific audience can produce results inversely proportional to actuality - I like to think of it as "poll-arization." A sequel comes out and the alienated audience of the first one, when polled, will be even less interested up front, where the target audience is even more interested.

So what are you all thinking for its opening day?

I think with it being a Thursday, it might not beat the first film's opening or at least not by much

I'd say $25-27 million

I think Thursday is going to take up a greater amount of the 5-day than we expect.

Thurs: 25 mil
Fri: 17 mil
Sat: 15 mil
Sun: 13 mil
Mon: 10 mil

And that rounds out to about 80 million. Basically what the first one would have opened to over this frame. I think.

23m OD.

I hope this is really big like the first so we get a third . But if they do give us another I kind of want them to return to how the show was. Sure the movies are fun (at least the first was, and I'm sure this will follow suit), but the show was brilliant and the movies are missing something.

I am going overboard on this one. Maybe breakouts are happening this time for the expected movies.

27M OD Thursday
19M Friday
15M Saturday
13M Sunday
10M Monday

84M 5-day opening though there is a chance that this sticks to about 80M itself

Opening in 3,445 theatres, 160 more than the first.

My final prediction:

Opening weekend (5-day) - $88 million

Total Gross - $163 million

The opening weekend gross that I wrote was before it was announced that the film would open on a Thursday. I still maintain that the gross of the first 3 days will be around $39 million and that the final gross will be less than the first film.

Once again, there was not the same anticipation level for SEX AND THE CITY 2 as there was for the first film.

You nailed it conch22. In hindsight its clear as day. I had it wrong, I thought it would open a bit higher than the first (yet still have a similar total).

It comes down to the limited fanbase. All the fans of the show saw the original, it was an event film. That's something no sequel can ever have again. The same would happen if a Simpsons 2 was ever released.

Thank you. I like being right.

Stated Christmas Eve, 2009

Nice call, Gun.

You guys should have known to bet low on SATC2 when you saw this prediction:

I think we were all scared to massively underpredict this one like we did on the first. The drop makes sense sequel-wise, especially since this one wasn't as big of an event and as it just seemed like a vacation movie.