Loyal made one for Sideways. And then Mav made one for Million Dollar Baby. So, here's mine for The Aviator. I want to officially announce that The Aviator will win Best Picture. Not only did it win both the Producer's Guild and The Golden Globes, arguably the two strongest indicators, but it has snatched several critics Best Picture wins (amazing for a "bigger" less typical critic type film).

Best Picture Wins:

Producer's Guild ........................... WINNER!
The Golden Globes ....................... WINNER!
BAFTA ......................................... WINNER!
Las Vegas Film Critics ................... WINNER!
Phoenix Film Critics ....................... WINNER!
London Film Critics ........................ WINNER!
National Board of Review ............... RUNNER-UP (and what's important to note is that Finding Neverland is the only film above The Aviator here, and Finding Neverland has no chance at the Oscars)

Support in guild branches that could lead to added support in the Best Picture category:

Cinema Audio Society ................... WINNER!
Editor's Guild ................................ WINNER!
SAG, Best Supp. Actress ................ WINNER!
3 Guild Awards from VES ............... WINNER!
Sound Effects Editing Guild ............. WINNER!
(plus several guild nominations)

The Aviator is heading into the Oscars with an easily noted advantage in terms of Best Picture awards, has been the frontrunner since forever, and fits what the Academy loves to vote for. The film also has THREE acting nominations (Alda, DiCaprio, and Blanchett), one of which is likely to be won (Cate Blanchett) and several technical category nominations (a few which may be won), adding up to the MOST Oscar nominations, which all point to the best overall support to The Aviator when every single Academy member goes to vote for Best Picture.

I also think (and yes, this is personal opinion, I realize that) that The Aviator is a terrific film, completely deserving, and it will win because it deserves it. The awards it has won show the support. This is not some empty fad.

And that's that. I wanted to get this in before the show tomorrow, because I want to parade around when The Aviator has infact won Best Picture.

PEACE, Mike

Actually, Mav posted his thread on Monday after seeing mine on Sunday (just giving credit where credits due :wink: ). Not sure when BKB made his Ray thread.

I'm happy to see someone finally show some love for The Aviator at KJ. :razz:

Ah, okay. Switched, so you get your dues. Hehe.

And thank you.

PEACE, Mike

I never really understood how The Aviator "lost" its frontrunner status.

It's clearly The Aviator's BP Oscar to lose.

I actually had made a few pro Million Dollar baby threads before any threads were made, if taking credit is the order of the day. :wink:

Pro ______ threads were all the rage back in the day. :razz:

But actually heralding a BP nominee to win, let's not split hairs here Larry, mine was first, then yours, then Bkb's, now Mike's, and maybe on Tuesday, Goldie's for Finding Neverland.

lol, guys, I was just joshing around. It's not really a huge deal who made what thread first.

Anyways, I want to hear your guys opinions on The Aviator and it's Best Picture chances (so I can quote you and then say "told you so" tomorrow, haha). You two are arguably the two strongest vocalist among the Oscar race and such.

PEACE, Mike

=D>

Sorry jackass but most of my threads are more original than yours.

Look at the awards list and see which aren't good ones.

- what are you watching
- sure locks
- what winner
- best ever
- worst ever.

maybe if some would come up with different threads I wouldn't have to post them.

So sorry jackass I won't be posting Neverland on tuesday.

Now you can go back to your stupid baby fight with Mav on MDB.

Can you please NOT hijack my thread? Take it elsewhere please. As far as I could see, loyal was JOSHING. That's it. If you want to argue, please do it elsewhere.

PEACE, Mike

Well, personally, I believe The Aviator will win. Too much is going for it. Personally, I'd prefer Sideways to win, but there is no denying the fact that its chances are rather slim. I see The Aviator getting Picture, M$B grabbing director, though.

My argument as to why The Aviator won't win goes back to it's SAG lost. It doesn't seem to have the actors in it's corner.

I think Sideways' win has a lot to do with The Aviator and M$B splitting guild support. I don't think in a million years Sideways could beat either film outright in a normal BP Oscar race. But with those two battling each other, it will leave enough unchallenged support for Sideways to steal the Oscar.

It happened with Chariots of Fire in 81. Reds and On Golden Pond are almost mirrored by The Aviator and M$B.

It (The Aviator) won't win.

Million Dollar Baby will, and I am standing by that until the winner is announced.

<------- punches Libs in the baby maker. :razz:

I just saw Sideways yesterday and it's now my number 4 of the year behind the Aviator. So I still believe the Aviator will take best picture and best director, but if Sideways should pull an amazing upset, I won't be that disappointed. I think M$B will take the supporting actor and best actress oscars and that will be enough of a reward for that film.

And you will be a VERY happy girl after tomorrow night. :grin: Million Dollar Baby is about as sure a thing as Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman are!

In other words - Not a sure thing

=D>

Beat me to it.

There will be a split, no doubt about that (well, a little doubt), but I'm going to have to disagree with you, Mike.

Million Dollar Baby, best picture. Scorsese, director.

Let's see: A big-scale movie set in Hollywood, celebrating the history of moviemaking, but deals with the negative aspect of the red carpet, celebrity, and fame. The other movies is a small-scale, genuine reflection of "real-life" dealing with themes that ordinary American citizens can actually relate to. And, oh yeah, the first movie portrays the media in a negative stereotype while the second one actually gave journalists a free pass, not showing them at all when they should have had an appearance in the movie, acting insensitive and such.

Which movie do you think the newspaper/magazines support and declare as the frontrunner, especially if they think that is the movie the mainstream readership will relate to? But which movie will Hollywood voters actually vote for?

Remember when the critics were voting the last couple of months, they were giving best picture to a movie about a critic.

yep. the aviator will win. l don't agree, necessarily, l just can't honestly see it being anything else.

A far more sure thing than any of the competition is. :wink:

Depends on your definition of "far more"

When something is the clear frontrunner.

I agree. I also think either Freeman or Swank is going to loose. Just a hunch. I also think after ROTK's (deserved) sweep last year, the awards will be spread around somewhat this year with several films sharing the wealth.