INCEPTION (INTL.)



Ok, total backflip on what I said about having only one INTL. thread for summer. This is getting more intriguing by the day, can't resist not covering this.

I think this can be huge in Asia and perhaps even Europe, and it's a type of movie we haven't really covered before. You know, Adult Thrillers / Supernatural / Drama / Whatever it is.

Boo for not being honest but YAY for an Inception thread. Can't wait for this.

I love being dirty

WOOOHOOOOOO go arch

Anything above $600 million worldwide for this would be terrific, I'd be personally content with anything above $500 million.

Yeah, adult geared movies grossing this much is impressive. Especially if it's a totally original story and one that is not necessarily mainstream.

Which movies do you think i should be directly comparing this against? I'm thinking the following so far:

5 The Dark Knight WB $1,001.9 $533.3 53.2% $468.6 46.8% 2008
24 Independence Day Fox $817.4 $306.2 37.5% $511.2 62.5% 1996
35 The Matrix Reloaded WB $742.1 $281.6 37.9% $460.6 62.1% 2003
46 Hancock Sony $624.4 $227.9 36.5% $396.4 63.5% 2008
49 The Passion of the Christ NM $611.9 $370.8 60.6% $241.1 39.4% 2004
52 Casino Royale Sony $594.2 $167.4 28.2% $426.8 71.8% 2006
53 War of the Worlds Par. $591.7 $234.3 39.6% $357.5 60.4% 2005
55 Quantum of Solace Sony $586.1 $168.4 28.7% $417.7 71.3% 2008
56 I Am Legend WB $585.3 $256.4 43.8% $329.0 56.2% 2007
60 King Kong Uni. $550.5 $218.1 39.6% $332.4 60.4% 2005
87 The Matrix WB $463.5 $171.5 37.0% $292.0 63.0% 1999
91 Mission: Impossible Par. $457.7 $181.0 39.5% $276.7 60.5% 1996
61 Mission: Impossible II Par. $546.4 $215.4 39.4% $331.0 60.6% 2000
96 Ocean's Eleven WB $450.7 $183.4 40.7% $267.3 59.3% 2001
100 The Bourne Ultimatum Uni. $442.8 $227.5 51.4% $215.4 48.6% 2007

Wouldn't it be best to ignore the holiday releases? The distribution pattern for LEGEND and KONG will be very different than a summer release.

that will be its domestic taking fo sho.

LOL, could this be 2010's biggest surprise domestically? There's no knowing what's its potential. $400m looks like a stretch though at this point but i'm not rulling anything out.

Anything lower than $200m domestic would be dissapointing i think. $300m+ would be fantastic and $400m+ would definately be the shocker of the year, moreso than Alice In Wonderland.

My Top 5 2010 Predictions:

1) HP7-I - $370m + $730m = $1.1bn
2) Alice In Wonderland - $335m + $650m = $985m
3) Toy Story 3 - $450m + $520m = $970m
4) Iron Man - $440m + $400m = $840m
5) Shrek 4 - $330m + $500m = $830m

6) Inception - $280m + $420m = $700m

Inception won't be setting any worldwide opening charts alight, it's going to have a platform release with the first two weeks probably encompassing 1/3 of the territories to open and some big ones like the South American, German-speaking and Italian-speaking regions towards the end of its run.

It's also going to build a good distance between it and Eclipse which would've unspooled in most markets by the time Inception enters in late-July. Also, It's avoiding close competition with Toy Story 3 which should finish it's platform release by the end-of July....in markets where Inception won't open until September onwards.

Last year, this frame was dominated by Harry Potter 6 and Ice Age 3...the year before, The Dark Knight which also had a platform release but was finished by the end of August.

----------------------

Country Date

Egypt 14 July 2010
Russia 15 July 2010
Singapore 15 July 2010
Canada 16 July 2010
Kazakhstan 16 July 2010
UK 16 July 2010
USA 16 July 2010

France 21 July 2010
Switzerland 21 July 2010 (French speaking region)
Australia 22 July 2010
Netherlands 22 July 2010
Portugal 22 July 2010
Slovakia 22 July 2010
Estonia 23 July 2010
Finland 23 July 2010
Japan 23 July 2010
Lithuania 23 July 2010
Spain 23 July 2010
Sweden 23 July 2010

Czech Republic 29 July 2010
Poland 30 July 2010
Romania 30 July 2010

Argentina 5 August 2010
Brazil 6 August 2010

Belgium 18 August 2010
Germany 19 August 2010
Serbia 19 August 2010
Switzerland 19 August 2010 (German speaking region)

Italy 3 September 2010
Switzerland 3 September 2010 (Italian speaking region)

Holy Fuck, this trailer is awesome, the best i've seen so far this year. It's so original, the last 20 seconds of this trailer is pure gold and it builds very well.

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/ne ... on-is-here

With Iron Man 2 somewhat dissapointing for me, this is definately going to be the IT movie and must see movie for geeks this Summer. Everything about it just screams substance and kinda gives you the same weighty material feel as The Dark Knight while mixing it with money shots which the crowd nowadays demand from their blockbuster.

Leo looks imposing though the most interesting character for me is actually Joseph Gordon-Levitt. This guys is surely going to garner an Oscar nom or win one day. In this trailer he seems so moody, so edgy, making you dieing to see what his motive is (moreso than Leo). And you can definately see that that this is an actor and character driven movie.

I'm more than certain that Asia will eat this up, and Japan should be a strong follower. With Ken Watanabe sure to at least garner interest in that region. Europe also may play a big part in its gross. Shutter Island, another mature thriller/drama type movie did quite well in some of the mid-tier European countries.

Clip your seatbelts folks, this movie is the IT movie of summer.

I liked teaser more than this trailer. Good trailer, though.

Actually, I shouldn't have seen it since I hate spoilers. Thank Satan, it wasn't that spoilerish like other trailers.

Did it really reveal that much? I still don't really know what its about, even after seeing the Theatrical Trailer. Am I just slow? Anyhew, surely Nolan has some surprises up his sleeves for the movie.

Like I said, it wasn't that spoilerish. Btw, about better teaser I've meant the one with Di Caprio's monologue and Page shouting "Wake me up".

Plus, I'm not gonna watch the movie for at least half a year. So, I'm probably forget anyway.

Well, just watch it once and be done with it. I'm not going to watch the trailer again until the movie opens. BTW - I think i've got a crush on Joseph Gordon Levitt now, he's so hot.

UNITED KINGDOM Predictions

A Look Back:

It's going to be very hard to top the gross of The Dark Knight here. Nolan's previous effort broke records for a comic release here in the UK, grossing a massive £48,824,392 (#16 on the All-Time charts). Comic releases are not as big here in the UK, the previous record holder was Spiderman 3 at £33,458,286 (#41). The depth of story and focus on character was the reason why TDK resonated so well with audiences and provided a compelling alternative to Mammia Mia!; which of course went all the way to knock-off Titanic for the #1 spot (pre-Avatar). The exchange rate at the time was quite impressive, allowing TDK to hit almost $90m, amongst the Top 10 largest US$ grosses in history.

Batman Begins; Nolan's other Batpic displayed the performance of a typical comic movie, though with drastically better legs. It ended up with just under US$30m and £16.2m. It was followed by The Prestige which barely registered a heartbeat, grossing less than US$7m.

This market is not that receptive to modern character driven movies; besides James Bond, you will need to go all the way down to something like a Slumdog Millionaire (£31,664,077 - #47) , The Da Vinci Code (£30,249,489 - #51) or Bourne Ultimatum (£23,427,403 - #78) for weighty material that is not either a romantic comedy, comedy or fantasy/sci-fi (well Da Vinci Code is kinda fantasy right? ). This year's Shutter Island did a measly $16.5m, and didn't even debut at #1 (2nd behind Alice's 2nd weekend).

There will surely be plenty of goodwill though from TDK however, and this might be more digestible for audiences due to it's well-known character driven cast mixed with some elements of sci-fi and imagery which audiences now demand from their blockbusters.


Opening/The Competition:

Boy is it going to be hard this year, the competition is fierce in June/July. Not only will Inception be going up against The Karate Kid on the same weekend, it will also be faced with Shrek 4's 3rd weekend, Twilight's 2nd weekend...and will be followed Predator/Toy Story 3 a week after with The A-Team/Adjustment Bureau rounding out July. It's not been as fierce as this since 2008, when you had Kung Fu Panda, Hancock, Mamma Mia, Wall-E and The Dark Knight all in the same month. Inception has it harder than TDK in my opinion because Predator/A-Team/Adjustment Bureau will all be gunning for the male demographic, it's core audience.

This year has already seen some strong starts; here's a few:

Alice In Wonderland - $15,983,555 (£10,555,220 - 533 TC)
Iron Man 2 - $11,712,073 (£7,664,732 - 521 TC)
Clash Of The Titans - $8,643,945 (£5,682,875 - 446 TC)
How To Tran Your Dragon - $7,371,824 (£4,846,532 - 471 TC)

To buy a place inside the Top 25 largest openers, you will need at least US$19m. TDK currently sits at #18 with just over $22m.

James Bond: Casino Royale - $25,328,602 (£13,370,969 or $22m without p/v - 505 TC/988 SC)
James Bond: Quantum Of Solace - $25,309,345 (£15,384,217 - 540 TC/1150 SC)
Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $24,146,846 (£12,227,799 - 538 TC)
Spiderman 3 - $23,624,634 (£11,827,013 3-Day - 522 TC/1357p)
The Dark Knight - $22,232,467 (£11,191,824 or $17,257,277/ £8,687,313/ 2.1m adms. - 502 TC/1021p)
I Am Legend - $21,974,780 (£11,009,365 - 440 TC)
The Matrix: Reloaded - $19,894,155 (£12,165,276 5-Day - 481 TC)
Hancock - $19,003,359 (£9,589,095 - 450 TC)
Transformers - $17,645,337 (£8,718,561 incl. $7.7m p/v - 456 TC)
The Da Vinci Code - $17,643,366 (£9,388,035 - 523 TC)
War Of The Worlds - $15,313,246 (£8,644,787 - 507 TC)
The Matrix: Revolutions - $14,591,107 (£8,712,350 incl. £3.9m p/v - 467 TC/925p)
James Bond: Die Another Day - $14,294,312 (£9,122,344 - 430 TC)
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - $13,843,415 (£8,349,739 - 513 TC)
Avatar - $13,753,111 (£8,509,050 - 503 TC/456 3D)
The Bourne Ultimatum - $12,980,202 (£6,553,704 - 458 TC)
King Kong - $12,308,131 (£6,944,740 or $10,628,071 without p/v - 481 TC)
Iron Man 2 - $11,712,073 (£7,664,732 - 521 TC)
Terminator 4: Salvation - $11,081,955 (£6,936,528 or $7,636,415 3-Day - 489 TC)
Independence Day - $10.859m (£7,005,905 - 434 TC)
2012 - $10,823,564 (£6,489,809 - 480 TC)

At the momment, i see Inception opening along the same lines as Iron Man 2, say around US$10-12m. Anything above US$15m will be breakout success in today's exchange rate.


Overall:

While i don't think it will come anywhere near TDK here; my expectation is that it will at least crack 20m pounds (minimum) with 25m pounds in-line with pics like Sherlock Holmes/I Am Legend/Trans2. If it crosses 30m pounds, i will deem it a big success (King Kong/WOTW).

This year has already seen a 40m pound success in the form of Alice in Wonderland, currently at £42,169,542 (#23). There's no chance in hell this will make it to Top 5 for the year with pics like HP7, TS3, Twilight 3, Shrek 4 still to come but a Top 10 placing is highly possible i think.

Avatar - £91,354,118*
Titanic - £69,025,646
James Bond: Casino Royale - £55,287,027
James Bond: Quantum of Solace - £51,070,677
The Dark Knight - £48,824,392
Alice In Wonderland - £42,169,542
Indiana Jones 4 - £39,742,108
James Bond: Die Another Day - £35,924,004
Independence Day - £35,694,480
Spiderman 3 - £33,458,286
The Matrix: Reloaded - £32,510,686
War of the Worlds - £30,367,791
The Da Vinci Code - £30,249,489
King Kong - £29,669,572
James Bond: The World Is Not Enough - £28,367,515
Transformers 2 - £26,539,878
I Am Legend - £25,348,532
Sherlock Holmes - £25,162,902
Hancock - £24,410,925
The Bourne Ultimatum - £23,427,403

JAPAN Preview

Sci-Fi/Fantasy fused movies are normally well received in Asia, but here in Japan, sometimes logic can goes out the window and movies you'd expect to do well end up dissapointing greatly or even bombing. There's been countless examples in recent years; Transformers and King Kong comes immediately to mind. Prince of Persia opened last weekend in Japan and also bombed dramatically with an opening less than $2m. Will Inception suffer the same fate?

The major worry is that it's confusing premise could completely turn off viewers. The cast while solid, hasn't seen any super breakout success in Japan, even Leo (post Titanic). His recent effort, Shutter Island topped out with $17m and other pics like The Departed ($13,139,799), Body Of Lies ($9,651,930), Blood Diamond ($8,017,156), The Aviator ($7,762,147). You need to go all the way back to Gangs of New York for a $20m grosser ($23,763,699) and Catch Me If You Can ($22,678,989). At least he's been consistent. Nolan's past 2 successes for the Batman franchise does not register here, with The Dark Knight grossing just $14.5m and Batman Begins at a lowly $12.1m due to their comic background. Pure drama, thrillers or revelations do not normally cross $20m here, you need to either supplement it with a huge name (ala Tom Cruise/Tom Hanks) or through in massive special effects. The marketing for this in Asia (and Japan) really needs to amp up the action and special effects.

Here are some comparative totals:

Titanic - $219,500,000
Avatar - $166,500,000+
E.T. - $145,000,000
Alice In Wonderland - $118,000,000+
The Phantom Menace - $109,905,784
The Matrix Reloaded - $104,300,000
Independence Day - $92,000,000
Terminator 2 - $87,000,000
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $82,698,529
The Da Vinci Code - $79,343,641
Artificial Intelligence - $79,300,000
Star Wars 2: AOTC - $78,182,528
Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines - $77.7m
The Matrix $71,000,000
The Matrix: Revolutions - $64,000,000
War Of The Worlds - $53,877,295
Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $53,085,593
Minority Report $44,000,000
I Am Legend - $40,268,674
Men in Black 1 - $38,000,000
Transformers - $34,305,553
Terminator 4: Salvation - $34,000,000
Transformers 2 - $23,000,000
King Kong - $19,000,000

Perhaps the only thing you can draw is if it can resonate to audiences at the same level as The Matrix franchise did. Even the first when on to gross a mammoth $71m and the critically panned Revolutions grossed $64m, marks which are in uber-blockbuster territory.

Inception opens around mid-July and putting the locals aside, biggest competitor is probably The Last Airbender (also a darkhorse and could so bomb or breakout). Here's how the release dates stack (focus on foreign releases only)

July 10 - Toy Story 3, Predators
July 17 - Inception (Limited Release),
July 23 - Inception (Friday)
July 30 - The Last Airbender (Friday)
July 31 - Salt
August 7 - How To Train Your Dragon, The Karate Kid (Limited)
August 13 - The Socerer's Apprentice (Friday)
August 14 - The Karate Kid

Perhaps Corpse can give us a view on how the locals come into the picture during this period.

I'm not bold enough to predict breakout numbers like this for Inception, though i'm expecting a moderate success around the $30m-$40m mark.

Ken Watenabbe(sp) is second billed after Leo in Inception. Watenabbe is a big star in Japan and was second billed in Last Samurai and top billed in Letters from Iwo Jima. I believe Last Samurai reached $100 mil and Iwo Jima earned about $40 mil in Japan. Though both those films had plots that would be of interest to the Japanese market. I think the presence of DiCaprio and Watenabbe should help Inception in Japan.

Inception should be able to approach $50 million in Japan. Seems like the kind of a film audiences would eat up there.

You seem quite confident, i'm less so.

I don't think this will be huge overseas. If we see the % share for TDK was also lesser overseas than it was domestically. Now I don't expect this to happen for this one but still this can do about 200M-300M overseas.

I see around 200-250m DOM & 275-325m INT for this.
Hopefully it's a GREAT film.

Weaklings, it will top $400m overseas

Haven't seen it yet. Is it any good?

http://www.collider.com/2010/06/08/ince ... her-nolan/

new banners = fucking epic, my fav is the first one.