You voted for it, and here it is.

Toy Story 3 (INTL.)



***COMING SOON***

Egypt 16 June 2010
Israel 17 June 2010
Peru 17 June 2010
Russia 17 June 2010
Singapore 17 June 2010
Kazakhstan 18 June 2010
Poland 18 June 2010
Taiwan 18 June 2010
USA 18 June 2010
Australia 24 June 2010
Brazil 25 June 2010
Italy 7 July 2010
Japan 10 July 2010
France 14 July 2010
Argentina 15 July 2010
UK 23 July 2010
Belgium 28 July 2010
Finland 28 July 2010
Netherlands 28 July 2010
Sweden 28 July 2010
Germany 29 July 2010
Portugal 29 July 2010
Estonia 30 July 2010
South Korea 5 August 2010
Denmark 26 August 2010
Norway 27 August 2010
Turkey 3 September 2010

I voted for Inception,,,, but

I always love your threads!! love ya!!

inception will win internationally fo sho.

Yeah... It will make less than $20m in South Korea.....

Well Toy Story 3 it is. I think this will go as a normal Pixar movie specially in Asian markets, though I could be wrong.

Love your threads Arch

My early prediction is that like IA3 it will be very big overseas and we could see a definite 1B gross for this one

600M+ for sure.

IA3 is finished. 700m+.

If it wasn't Toy Story 3, it would've been Inception. Who knows, if the final trailer gives more mindblowing stuff and buzz goes through the roof, we might see a thread dedicated to it. Either way, if it's not me, i'm sure someone else will.....how about u

A Repost from the Avatar thread....better use of information here...

Just realised that in Australia, Toy Story 3 (June 24th) opens 1 week after Shrek 4 (June 17th). Crazy. The two biggest animation franchises here in Australia.

Their aim of course is to make the most of the school holidays. I somehow feel that this is going to be similar to 2004, when Shrek 2 opened 1 week after HP3.....and sent it crashing close to 70%.

Can't tell which movie is going to come out on top. Though i give the slight edge to Shrek 4.

On a side note, we get Iron Man 2 one week ahead of the US on April 29th. Wicked

Definitely a $900+ million worldwide grosser, probably $1+ billion.

Too bad the crappy UK exchange rate will shortchange its run there.

The same reason Avatar didn't gross more than $150m despite it's local pounds gross being miles ahead of the previous record.

Put South Korea on 5 August 2010, please

Done, quite late in the game. Though i doubt Toy Story 3 would have much of an impact on the Korean BO. Definately not inside the Top 5 or perhaps even Top 10 largest foreign movies.

AUSTRALIA Preview

While the Shrek franchise is the undisputed animation champion here in Australia, Pixar has performed more consistently and at a higher level than their Dreamworks counterparts.

Back in 1995, Toy Story 1 (AUD$14m) ushered in a new era for animation flicks previously dominated by Disney's singing spectacles. As that old order began to dwindle after The Liong King's mammoth AUD$27.1m gross, Tory Story 1 kick-started a golden run for Pixar. A Bug's Life, Toy Story 2, Monsters Inc to Finding Nemo...each movie besting on the previous gross. The 2nd batch of movies didn't do so well (The Incredibles, Cars, Ratatouille saw declining returns for Pixar)..but the studio has been experiencing a resurgance in the form of Wall-E and Up (the 2nd largest pic for Pixar after Nemo).

For the Toy Story franchise, there was a 44% increase from the first to the 2nd installment. Toy Story 2's AUD$20.131m became only the 2nd animation pic at the time to gross more than AUD$20m (Lion King the other). It was an extremly competitive year topped by the return of Star Wars.

Current Animation Leaderboard:

1 SHREK 2 PG PDI UIP/Uni 17/06/04 13,159,869 up 14 50,345,252
2 FINDING NEMO G Pixar BVI 28/08/03 8,038,861 up 10 37,394,203
3 SHREK THE THIRD PG DW / PDI Par 07/06/07 10,338,331 up 6 33,727,143
4 SHREK PG PDI UIP/Uni 21/06/01 3,546,724 up 20 32,045,840
5 HAPPY FEET G Animal Logic Road 26/12/06 6,596,006 up 101 31,786,164
6 THE SIMPSONS MOVIE Fox 2007 26 Jul 31,435,836
7 ICE AGE: DAWN OF THE DINOSAURS PG Blue Sky Fox 01/07/09 5,878,128 TBC 29,792,883
8 UP PG Pixar WD 03/09/09 2,111,655 TBC 28,209,547
9 THE LION KING BVI 1994 25 Aug 27,107,180
10 THE INCREDIBLES PG Pixar BVI 26/12/04 1,918,418 up 2 26,732,896
11 KUNG FU PANDA PG DW / PDI Par 05/06/08 5,230,383 TBC 25,835,970
12 MONSTERS, INC. G Pixar BVI 26/12/01 3,701,090 up 0 25,623,079
13 MADAGASCAR PG PDI UIP/Uni 16/06/05 4,597,250 up 30 25,426,110
14 ICE AGE: THE MELTDOWN PG Blue Sky Fox 06/04/06 5,255,468 up 28 24,566,473
15 MADAGASCAR: ESCAPE 2 AFRICA PG Par 18/12/08 3,818,439 21,941,180
16 MONSTERS VS ALIENS PG Par 02/04/09 3,875,854 20,584,698
17 ICE AGE G Blue Sky Fox 21/03/02 2,606,583 up 16 20,488,513
18 TOY STORY 2 G Pixar BVI 02/12/99 2,137,937 down 18 20,131,422
19 A BUG'S LIFE G Pixar BVI 03/12/98 1,860,675 up 24 20,015,072
20 ALADDIN Dis 1992 03 Jun 18,186,790
21 WALL-E G Pixar WD 18/09/08 3,635,368 TBC 18,041,500
22 CARS G Pixar BVI 08/06/06 4,301,936 down 25 17,663,541
23 OVER THE HEDGE G DW Animation UIP/Par 22/06/06 2,513,557 up 9 16,313,606
How To Train Your Dragon - $15,335,074 (after 3 weeks)
24 SHARK TALE G PDI UIP/Uni 20/09/04 2,541,304 down 5 15,318,923
25 BEE MOVIE G Par 06/12/07 2,506,414 15,126,885
26 RATATOUILLE PG BVI 06/09/07 3,383,868 14,468,443
27 ROBOTS G Blue Sky Fox 24/03/05 2,516,713 up 11 13,823,183
28 DINOSAUR PG Disney BVI 15/06/00 1,952,826 down 0 13,774,177
29 TOY STORY G Pixar BVI 07/12/95 1,064,587 down 29 13,690,357

Openings:

Compared to Dreamworks, Pixar have softer openings here. There are two key factors 1) Platform Release 2) Opens just before school holiday periods (i.e. families would wait a few weeks). Finding Nemo's is the oddity...the current opening champion for Pixar, grossing just over AUD$8m. A total which stands as the 3rd largest opening today for an animation flick (bested only by Shrek 2+3).

Toy Story 3 marks somewhat of a change for the franchise. The previous two pics opened in December, opening to around the AUD$2m mark and performed consistently through the holiday season. This time, TS3 opens on June 24th, and just 1 week after Shrek 4 open. WOW. By this time, school holidays would be inflight across some Australian states. A period which starts mid-June to mid-July. It's going to be a battle of epic proportions. Kinda reminds me a bit of 2004, when Shrek 2 opened 1 week after Harry Potter 3. Shrek 2, won that battle and made the most of the school holidays; crushing HP3 in its wake and gave Spiderman 2 a run for it's money. Could this be an omen for Toy Story 3?

Prediction:

The Shrek franchise has seen a dramatic drop-off from Shrek 2 to Shrek 3, opening the doors for TS3 to sweep the animation title this year. And perhaps even claim the #1 spot for the year overall. However, if either Shrek 4 or TS3 are to claim the top spot this year, it will have to surpass the mark set by Alice In Wonderland. In it's 6th week, that movie has has already grossed AUD$35m off a massive AUD$10.4m opening. The only pic which is a lock to reach these levels is probably Harry Potter 7-II and potentially Eclipse (New Moon grossed AUD$36m).

If Up is anything to go by, expect a $30m+ for Toy Story 3 at least. I think the nostalgia card mixed with school-holidays will be enough to counter Shrek 4's supposed last pic in the franchise promo. I'm predicting a slightly lower opening compared to Shrek 4 (only because it will be first off the ranks and marks an end to a kid drought since How To Train Your Dragon) but a more leggy run.

Shrek 4 - AUD$11m / AUD$35m
Toy Story 3 - AUD$10m / AUD$40m

GERMAN Preview

16 years on, The Lion King still has a stranglehold on the animation title here in Germany (admissions wise); however, it's US$60m record was beaten by Ice Age 2 ($61m) and raised again last year by Ice Age 3 ($82m).

The Toy Story franchise are not giant killers in Germany. While they both placed around the Top 10 largest movie in their respective years, they were not the top animation titles. TS1 was beaten by Hunchback of Notre Dame while TS2 lagged behind Pokemon. Pre-2000, Pixar's best effort was actually A Bug's Life in 1998 (largest CGI pic of its time). It was around that time when the gap between CGI and Animation began to close as the last of the Disney juggernauts left the stage (Mulan, Tarzan). A Bug's Life lasted 5 years as Pixar's best until Finding Nemo in 2003 (still record holder today). It was however, beaten several times by other studio's CGI effort, first by Shrek and then Ice Age.

Having animal-centricity in your movie obviously helps; non-humans efforts like Cars, Wall-E and Up don't fare as well comparatively. Perhaps goes some way in explaining why Toy Story was beaten by A Bug's Life.

Current Animation Leaderboard:

The Lion King - 11.333.217 adms. (#1 in 1994)
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - 8.747.409 adms. (#1 in 2006)
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - 8.705.891 adms. (#2 in 2009)
Finding Nemo - 8.678.707 adms. (#2 in 2003)
Ice Age 1 - 7.298.996 adms. (#3 in 2002)
Madagascar - 6.718.242 adms. (#2 in 2005)
Aladdin - 6.347.878 adms. (#2 in 1993)
Ratatouille - 6.104.073 adms. (#1 in 2007)
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa - 6.058.430 adms. (#1 in 2008)
Tarzan - 5.660.479 adms. (#2 in 1999)
Shrek 2 - 5.312.463 adms. (#4 in 2004)
Beauty And The Beast - 5.181.419 adms. (#1 in 1992)
The Little Mermaid - 4.695.561 adms. (#4 in 1990)
The Simpsons Movie - 4.592.790 adms.
Mulan - 4.397.291 (#3 in 1998)
Shek 3 - 3.923.908 adms.
Pocahontas - 3.649.368 adms. (#4 in 1995)
Shrek 1 - 3.640.183 adms. (#10 in 2001)
A Bug's Life - 3.590.658 adms.
The Incredibles - 3.501.969 adms.
Dinosaur - 3.477.204 adms.
Brother Bear - 3.452.760 adms.
Over The Hedge - 3.415.695 adms.
Monsters Inc -3.317.980 adms.
Hercules - 3.235.096 adms. (#10 in 1997)
Wall-E - 3.230.130 adms.
Pokemon - 3.222.452 adms. (#8 in 2000)
Kung Fu Panda - 3.156.485 adms.
The Rescuers Down Under - 3.087.532 adms. (#10 in 1991)
The Hunchback Of Notre Dame - 2.999.154 adms. (#8 in 1996)
Up - 2.987.881 adms.
Toy Story 2 - 2.948.160 adms. (#9 in 2000)
Toy Story 1 - 2.621.941 adms. (#11 in 1996)
Cars - 2.213.156 adms.


Openings:

Ice Age 2 - 2.395.588 adms. / 3.612.053 adms. week
Finding Nemo - 2.032.136 adms. / 2.588.509 adms. week
The Simpsons Movie - 1.670.397 adms. / 2.436.701 adms. week
Ice Age 1 - 1.465.302 adms. / 2.174.580 adms. week
Ice Age 3 - 1.457.891 adms. / 2.248.629 adms. week
Madagascar 2 - 1.475.967 adms. / 1.793.367 adms. week
Shrek 2 - 1.273.707 adms. / 1.815.591 adms. week
Madagascar 1 - 1.226.475 adms. / 2.000.100 adms. week
Pokemon - 1.049.479 adms. / 1.476.287 adms. week
Shrek 3 - 1.004.885 adms. / 1.327.780 adms. week
Ratatouille - 922.492 adms. 1.232.969 adms. week
Dinosaur - 888.573 adms. / 1.099.362 adms. week
Tarzan - 847.951 adms. / 1.074.226 adms. week

The 2m opening mark hasn't been cracked for 4 years now, the last to do it was Ice Age 2. The most recent entry into the Top 5 was Ice Age 3, admissions totals continue to drop.

Toy Story 3 faces a formidable foe in its opening frame, Inception also claiming the July 29th slot. Due to the world cup, most of the European releases dates are post-July 11th, though it's not without competition.

15th July - Twilight Eclipse
22nd July - Knight And Day, Karate Kid
29th July - Toy Story 3, Inception
5th August - A-Team, Killers
12th August - Cats & Dogs 2, Grown Ups
19th August - The Last Airbender, Step Up 3, Letters To Juliet

Predictions:

TS3 should have a leggy run if it can get past Inception, the August slate looks mediocre. I'm thinking it could nudge the 800k opening weekend mark for an admissions count around the 2.5-2.8m mark. I don't think this will match Shrek 4. Even with poisonous WOM, the 3rd still outgross the original. I'm expecting Shrek 4 to clear 3m admissions (just).

Alice in Wonderland still leads the year with around 3m admissions, nothing else has come close and i don't think any will be able to match this mark until Shrek 4 or Eclipse. The first animation fair of the year How to Train Your Dragon is struggling and looks like topping out around the 1.5m admissions range. A far cry from the studios other efforts like Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar.

In fact, i don't see anything topping the 5m mark this year until Harry Potter 7-II (i'm expecting a return to form for that franchise now that it's back in the holiday season).

TS3 should register a solid effort here.

With Shrek 4 flopping quite badly in the States, I wonder if this will translate the same into its overseas takings. It's also releasing during the World Cup period....may prove a big distraction, especially when familes have no need to rush out after the lacklustre 3rd chapter.

I originally had Shrek 4 ahead of Toy Story 3 overseas, but looks like the tables have turned now...Toy Story 3 looks ripe for the kill.

--

Shrek's release pattern:

Philippines 20 May 2010
Russia 20 May 2010
Singapore 20 May 2010
Ukraine 20 May 2010
Canada 21 May 2010
Indonesia 21 May 2010
Kazakhstan 21 May 2010
Taiwan 21 May 2010
USA 21 May 2010
Bosnia and Herzegovina 27 May 2010
Slovenia 27 May 2010
Turkey 28 May 2010
Egypt 2 June 2010
Estonia 4 June 2010
Romania 16 June 2010
Australia 17 June 2010
France 30 June 2010
Germany 30 June 2010
South Korea 1 July 2010
UK 2 July 2010
Belgium 7 July 2010
Spain 7 July 2010
Sweden 7 July 2010
Argentina 8 July 2010
Denmark 8 July 2010
Hungary 8 July 2010
Netherlands 8 July 2010
Portugal 8 July 2010
Brazil 9 July 2010
Colombia 9 July 2010
Finland 9 July 2010
Mexico 9 July 2010
Norway 9 July 2010
Poland 9 July 2010
Iceland 16 July 2010
Italy 28 August 2010
Japan 18 December 2010

SPAIN Preview

Pixar has had a failure yet here. Each release has performed solidly and the studio is on an upward trajectory again since the days of Toy Story 2. Even Cars performed quite well here and the franchise reached it's peak last year with Up's very strong performance.

In fact, Up is currently the highest grossing animated release here in US$. However, it's actually Shrek 2 which leads in admissions with 6,079,037 followed closely by The Liong King 6.067.005.

Up - $37m
Shrek 2 - $35m
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $32m
Shrek 3 - $30.4m
Finding Nemo - $29.82m
The Incredibles - $26.1m
The Simpsons Movie - $25.4m
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $23.7m
Kung Fu Panda - $21.8m
Ratatouille - $21.5m
Tarzan - $20.4m
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa - $20.4m
The Hunchback Of Notre Dame - $16.6m
Madagascar - $16.5m
Cars - $16.4m
Wall-E - $16m
Monsters Inc - $13.8m
Toy Story 2 - $12.5m
How To Train Your Dragon - $12.3m
Shrek - $11m

Animation is quite liked in Spain and nearly every key animation release here has done well. Toy Story 3 should have no problems hitting $20m i think, that mark is now pretty common territory for key blockbuster releases.

It'll probably have a hard time topping Shrek 4 however i think, Shrek 4's performance in the foreign markets it's opened to have been pretty sound. I see Shrek 4 hitting $30m with Toy Story somewhere between $25-30m.

In Poland we love animation but I don't expect TS3 to be in the same league as Shrek, Madagascar or Ice Age here. ( I hope I'm wrong on this one )

It's still should do some great numbers. My prediction:

OW - 400k adm.
Total - 1.6-1.8M adm.

I haven't been keeping track of Poland BO in terms of admissions, any idea what the current Top 20 is like? I know Ice Age 3 hit Top 20 with about 2m but not sure how much exactly.

Shrek 2 - 3.395.226 adms.
Shrek 3 – 3,352,469 adms.
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa – 2,238,751 adms.
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs – 2m+
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown – 1,946,964 adms
Finding Nemo - 1,540,801 adms.
Shrek - 1,455,240 adms.
Shark Tale - 911.833 adms.

I have Toy Story 2 at 549 606 adms lifetime.

Both Shrek movies are inside the TOp 10 all-time so there's no question that Shrek 4 will do much bigger numbers than Toy Story 3.....which i think will cross 1.5m but not 2m.

Ice Age 3 - 1.990.185 adm.

I have it at 1,990,248 adm...

TS1: 520,077
TS2: 550,556

It opens on June 18th in Mexico

Not much of an increase between the first and the second, how did it compare to other Pixar flicks like A Bug's Life...etc?