Well, let's get started. So far we've got The Ghost Writer as a potential candidaste for a nom.

Shutter Island seems to be out of the BP race, but could still nab some tech noms. And maybe if the race is weak a nomination for DiCaprio by some chance?

Alice in Wonderland should secure noms for Best Art Direction and Best Costume Design. Maybe Best Visual Effects, though that is not too likely.

Inception for 10+ awards.

The Ghost Writer is definitely a strong contender. It's a superb film in every respect; its only awards season negative is the early release date. However, if the expansions continue to be successful (and the director continues to generate polarizing controversy), this obstacle can be overcome.

Other upcoming films to watch:

The American
- Starring George Clooney (filmed in his beloved Italy), directed by iconic photographer Anton Corbijn. Clooney's a perennial Oscar favorite and Corbijn's directorial debut, Control, was amazing. This has potential.

Biutiful
- Alejandro González Iñárritu has yet to miss with the Oscars. He's not doing another hyperlink ensemble drama this time, but the combination of his prestige, star Javier Bardem, and a heavy dramatic plot could prove potent.

Love and Other Drugs
- Starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway, directed by Edward Zwick. Zwick has always flirted with enormous Oscar success. Blood Diamond, Defiance, Glory, The Last Samurai, Legends of the Fall; each received at least one nomination. Perhaps his time will come with this Gyllenhaal/Hathaway vehicle, which also represents a change of pace for Zwick (it's contemporary and character/dialogue-driven, not a period epic).

Never Let Me Go
- Starring Keira Knightley and Carey Mulligan, directed by Mark Romanek (One Hour Photo, a billion iconic music videos). Science fiction has never been Oscar's favorite genre, but the Knightley/Mulligan pairing, Romanek's vision, Danny Boyle favorite Alex Garland's screenplay, and Fox Searchlight's cunning handling of prestigious films could blend together and turn this into a contender.

Stone
- Starring Robert De Niro and Edward Norton, with Milla Jovovich. I'm a fan of director John Curran. I thought We Don't Live Here Anymore and The Painted Veil were moving films with wonderful acting, even though both flew under the Oscar radar. His time will come and it could be this crime drama. The De Niro/Norton pairing was dynamic in The Score and could blossom further here.

True Grit and Tree of Life (if it gets released) are definite contenders.

True Grit has huge potential. The Coens, one of the most famous western stories ever, a December release date, an ensemble cast with multiple Oscar favorites (Bridges, Brolin, Damon), etc. If anything, its potential might be so huge as to be a detriment. It has to be an -amazing- movie and avoid being another The Lovely Bones/Memoirs of a Geisha. I have nothing but faith in Joel and Ethan, though.

I don't think the Coens are setting out to make an Oscar movie, though, which is what separates it from those two you mentioned.

Well, of course.

Yeah, I don't think they've ever done that. Not with Fargo, not with NCFOM and not with A Serious Man. They just do what they want to do. They're (often) good at it too. Academy rewards that.

True Girt is a definite contender, especially with Bridges' higher profile now after the win and Damon getting a bigger actor as time goes by.

Then again, if history has taught us anything...it usually ends up not the way you expect if you start guessing months in advance, heh.

Well so many many many directors are better than Marshall.

The new James L. Brooks' film could have some potential for at least acting noms with Nicholson, Witherspoon, and Paul Rudd.

I Am Love could give Tilda Swinton a nom she wasn't able to get with Julia. Need to be handled better though.

Mother and Child has gotten good inks for its lead performances too.

Every year we can just look at what movies Brad Pitt and George Clooney is involved in from imdb.com and at least one from each will get nominated for BP.

Based on this The American and The Tree of Life should be shoo-ins for nominations.

Not always true.



...even though it should've been.

I think Jesse James would've gotten in with 10. Maybe.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Toy Story 3. While animated films have gotten some more notice than usual this year with Up getting only the second best picture nomination ever for an animated film, I think Toy Story 3, if it is great quality, and if the box office backs it up, will be one of the top 3 frontrunners for best picture. The film franchise is iconic and forever changed Hollywood with its legacy. Toy Story 2 won at the Golden Globes, but didn't get an Oscar nod in 1999/2000. But animation has come a LONG way in 10 years and if Toy Story 3 is just huge ($500 m), and actually great quality, I do think it could be a frontrunner or at least in the core top 5.

Toy Story 3 getting a best pic nod won't be a vote for the movie itself necessarily but the first two films' legacy to cinema.

i can't believe Shutter Island was met with such a meh reaction. I thought it was, though not up there with Scorsese's top few, better than most of the other films he's made. My friends loved it, too.

Very hard to determine what'll get nominated at this point in the race, but I agree that Toy Story 3 is a good bet. I'm sure it'll be at least as well-reviewed as Up, and it'll be much more popular.

True Grit sounds like a likely candidate as well. James Brooks has a movie coming out in December, that could certainly turn into a contender. But boy, looking at BOM's September-to-December schedule, there are very few films that even sound like Oscar-type movies scheduled to come out then.

An animated SEQUEL?

Toy Story 3 isn't winning. Expanding to ten BP nominees was enough to let an animated film in; they'll need to abolish the Best Animated Feature category before one wins.

I will burn everyone in that theatre on oscars night if that happens...

Start that club yo!!

Woody Allen's You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger could be a contender, à la Match Point and Vicky Cristina Barcelona. "The film revolves around the members of a family, their tangled love lives and their attempts to solve their problems." Shot in London. Stars Antonio Banderas, Josh Brolin, Anthony Hopkins, Freida Pinto, and Naomi Watts.

The Sundance darling, Winter's Bone, could be a contender. By all account, Jennifer Lawrence gave a star-making performance and could be this year's Carey Mulligan.

David Fincher's The Social Network, scripted by Aaron Sorkin, should be kept in mind. It could get shut out, or it could be a home run.
Ben Affleck's second film The Town has a stellar cast - Jeremy Renner, Chris Cooper, Rebecca Hall, Jon Hamm...
And like it or not, Paul Haggis third film, Next Three Days, shouldn't be counted out (cast includes Liam Neeson, Russell Crowe, and Elizabeth Banks)

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The Way Back has been filmed, right? The hasn't been much word, but what an exciting project: Peter Weir, Colin Farrell and Ed Harris, intense true story.