Alright the full votes are in. We have 24 from WOKJ, and you guys actually had the most dramatic vote despite the small number. Also thanks for the votes! This was fun to do.

Just a reminder. Your 1st place votes are what count in round 1. The lowest is eliminated in each round. If your ballot is casting a vote for the movie that was eliminated, we move down your list.

Round 1 (1st place votes):


5


5


4


3


3


2


1


1


0


0

Round 1's graph:

End of Round 1: Precious, The Blind Side, Up in the Air, District 9 eliminated. 2 ballots reallocated.

Round 2:

+1


+1

End of Round 2: The Hurt Locker eliminated. 2 ballots reallocated.

Round 3:

+1


+1

End of Round 3: Up eliminated. 3 votes reallocated.

Round 4:

+2


+1

End of Round 4: A Serious Man eliminated. 4 votes reallocated.

Round 5:

+3


+1

End of Round 5: An Education eliminated. 6 votes reallocated. An Education voters will determine the winner.

Round 6:

+5


+1

Inglourious Basterds is your WOKJ Best Picture winner with 14 votes to 10 votes. Every single forum wound up picking Inglourious, but this is the only come-from-behind win. I'll show you why (numerically) every forum picked it when I post the full (151 vote) simulation later on today. Also, despite The Hurt Locker's poor showing here, you guys actually rated it pretty highly. It was the lack of number 1s that doomed it here. I'll show that later as well.

Wow, very interesting results. Never thought The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air would get eliminated so early, or An Education to last to the second-to last round.

Hmm, interesting results indeed.

Then again, I expect Basterds to win the WOKJ Movie Awards as well.

151 ballot simulation!

Who participated?

Awards Daily (Active Oscar/awards discussion forum, good mix of females/males)- 71 ballots
Thought it would be a battle of THL prevailing over IB...close but wrong
1st place finisher: IB. 2nd place: THL. 3rd place: Serious Man

Cinema Discusso at SomethingAwful (Active film discussion forum, nearly all male...biggest topic over the last year was Avatar at ~10,000 posts) - 54 votes
Thought it would be a battle of Avatar prevailing over IB...so, so wrong
1st place finisher: IB. 2nd place: Serious Man. 3rd place: Up

World of KJ (A higher brow box office discussion forum, mostly male) - 24 ballots
Thought Avatar would take this in a walk...wrong again
1st place finisher: IB. 2nd place: Avatar. 3rd place: An Education (!)

GoldDerby (Semi-active Oscar discussion forum, no idea on demographics) - 7 ballots
7-way tie for first (seriously!)

(That adds up to 156...I took out duplicate ballots like my own, Xiayun, etc.)

I tried to do something on IMDB but that "forum" is like entering a time warp back to 1996. IB won that as well, but those ballots won't be included. I doubt the people even watched half the movies that they ranked.

Alright so here we go. The same storyline will play out so there's not much drama and I'll skip through the first rounds a bit to save space...it does take the full 9 rounds to reach the 50% plateau (76 votes). But watch how IB pulls away. I realize IB has its strength in the younger generation/us internet folk and it does much better with us than it probably will with AMPAS, but still...the passion vote sort of backs up my idea that IB has a (small) shot at this thing.

37


25


24


17


16


13


11


4


3


1

Graph of the round 1 votes:

Round 2:

Round 3:

Round 4:

The Blind Side, Precious, An Education, and District 9 all eliminated.

Round 5 (District 9 spreads the love around):

Up in the Air eliminated.

Round 6:

+9


+1


+2


+1


+2

Avatar eliminated. (hard to see...Avatar has 20, Up has 21).

Round 7:

+12


+0


+4


+4

Up eliminated.

Round 8:

+9


+11


+5

A Serious Man eliminated

Round 9:

+27 (!)


+8

Inglourious Basterds wins again by a much higher figure of 99 to 52.

The weakness for Hurt Locker came from the Cinema Discusso (CD) forum, where 42 of the 54 had it in their top 10, but only 19 of 54 (35%) had it ranked in their top 3. That compares disfavorably to AD (58% had in the top 3) and WOKJ (46% had it in their top 3).

However, the strength of Inglourious was universal: 72% of ADers had it in their top 3. 69% of those from CD. And 58% from WOKJ.

Here's a graph of the 'passion vote.' It's the percentage each film was in the top 3 of the ballot. I actually wasn't going to do District 9 but I noticed Avatar was so weak that I wanted to compare it. Turned out District 9 had a higher percentage than Avatar!



And finally, here's a breakdown of the final vote scenario. I have a feeling this race will come down to THL (favorite) vs IB (underdog). Here's how the votes coming from the other films went...

Blind Side ranked 1st (1):
1 or 100% Inglourious Basterds

An Education ranked 1st (3):
3 or 100% Inglourious Basterds

Precious ranked 1st (4):
3 or 75% Inglourious Basterds
1 or 25% The Hurt Locker

District 9 ranked 1st (11):
6 or 55% Inglourious Basterds
5 or 45% The Hurt Locker

Up in the Air ranked 1st (13):
12 or 92% Inglourious Basterds
1 or 8% The Hurt Locker

Avatar ranked 1st (16)
12 or 75% Inglourious Basterds
4 or 25% The Hurt Locker

Up ranked 1st (17)
6 or 35% Inglourious Basterds
11 or 65% The Hurt Locker

A Serious Man (24)
19 or 79% Inglourious Basterds
5 or 21% The Hurt Locker

In total, Inglourious received 62 additional votes whereas The Hurt Locker received 27 additional votes.

Not literally.

The BOM forum is a cesspit, hence higher brow

Plus it makes you (us?) sound cooler.

It also makes the snobs sound how they act.

Very interesting that Up supporters are the only group that preferred The Hurt Locker over Inglourious Basterds as a whole. I wonder what the correlation is (I happen to fall in the same camp with Up my #1 and The Hurt Locker #2).

Tarantino is immensly popular among online film fans. The results are not THAT surprising afterall.

True. Can't read too much into this because we're pretty much nothing like the AMPAS members. I do think it gives us a little insight on the passion vote, though.

For instance, if Avatar isn't getting the vote of young adult males, it's kinda doomed. That'd be like Titanic not getting the votes of females.

The final result isn't surprising, as Lecter said, Tarantino is huge online, but this was still a delight to read. Thanks for the time and effort, Kenspy.

I agree with Kenspy that one important revelation his outstanding research showed is that if Avatar could only come in 5th with the Internet crowd, it seems the chance it has at winning BP will be very remote when the composition of voters becomes more favorable to THL and other films like An Education.

It's becoming more and more clear, IMO, The Hurt Locker is going to win Best Picture.

And then the nightly news can frame the story as, "BOX OFFICE CHAMP AVATAR LOST? More at 11..."

If that Oscar luncheon is anything to go by Tarantino got by far the biggest applause than either Bigelow or Cameron. The only comparable claps were those for Streep and Bullock. Is that saying something?

Noticed that as well although the applause-o-meter that stood out to me was Cameron getting barely any.

Yeah. Though I read he's apparently not well liked in the Academy, so I wasn't surprised that much.

-
Google Doc in HTML for any that want to look at the ballots: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... utput=html



Yup, he has an ego that's for sure. Not even his own actors like him because he is such a pain in the ass. Lots of stories from the set of the Titanic about how he forced actors to stay in the tank for too long, and things like that. I think Winslet said she'd never work with him again.

He has respect, though, I'd say. People thought Titanic would be the biggest flop in Hollywood history, and it turned out the exact opposite. He told us he would revolutionize movies, and he delivered on that. Gotta tip your cap to the man.

But as with directors like Woody Allen & Roman Polanski, people can get respect for their work while their personal lives are....not good. I don't necessarily think his ego/a-hole status would hurt him, but if you're the underdog you gotta have at least some charisma and personal appeal to try to win over the votes. Not gonna happen, IMO.

Not true. There are a few who reportedly had problems with him, others respect him and keep coming back to work for him or are even friends with him.

To add to that, i have no idea where the notion comes from that he has a big ego. Because he quoted a line from his movie at the Oscars? Jack didn't literally feel being the king of the world or the best or whatever, it was just an expression of joy, the same joy Cameron must have felt when he got his Oscar. I've closely followed Cameron for the last few years and he never came off egoistic, on many occasions pointing out that moviemaking is a communal art, that it's not just about the director.

He is very demanding, that is true however, but even more so to himself and the results speak for him. He doesn't sit somewhere on a pedestal directing, he's in the trenches with the actors & crew.

I just realized that all An Education #1 votes came from WOKJ. That's so great.

Winslet did they that, yes. Well, she said she would if offered enough money. She said he had too much of a temper.

WOKJ is where the real films fans are.



BASTERDS is winning Best Picture, IMO.

This is the third simulation I've seen in which IB has won. In one simulation THL was leading up until the very last round before being overtaken by IB.

If only the Internet ran the Oscars...

Kensy, can we see the breakdown of votes (by rank) received by each film?