I'm sure that thread trounces this thread adjusted for inflation.

BOM has two avatar prediction threads with over 400 pages

Now that's ridiculous.

Avatar has a third thread on superhero hype due to the first two crossing 800+ pages

Likely

Party!!!!!

Well we don't get as much foot-traffick here as we do those other sites, so all doing well. We've also got a 108 page (and growing) Prediction Thread here as well. That's like a record as well for Prediction threads isn't it?

Here are my estimates for the French box office ... Avatar (for its eighth week) is third, behind The Princess and the Frog and Sherlock Holmes. My predictions are tickets and dollars (but parity varies greatly within a week, the ticket to 8.99 dollars two weeks ago, now 8.70!).

http://lestoilesheroiques.blogspot.com/2010/02/box-office-pronostics-semaine-du-3-au-9.html

For information, the percentage error of last week forecasts :
- Les Toiles heroiques : 56.89 points for the top 10 (5.7% average error)
- Cinedirectors: 78.68 points for the top 10 (7.9% average error)

Domestic: $606,493,323 (28.8%)
+ Foreign: $1,499,024,421 (71.2%)
----------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $2,105,517,744

Made about $13m per day monday through thursday overseas.

Already almost $300m more than Titanic. Just in 1 week

Just crazy... 2.5 billion is a lock now...
With Oscar wins and Alice being pushed back in many international markets... it could go much higher...

Hmm...$3 billion...

It's so hard to decide this year, Avatar or The Hurt Locker.

One has obviously won the major critics and guild awards, while the other has the Globe and the Box Office.

Is this the closest year yet?

Nope I don't think so it is tough this year. We are talking about quality vs quantity here.

I think so it is really tough when we have 2 movies with really similar subject matters and being awesome as well. That should be a real test. This is merely user's preference and we will see how much Oscar's favor quality this year over quantity

Picture - Avatar
Director - The Hurt Locker

Preference

Best Picture - Avatar
Best Director - The Hurt Locker

Reality

Hurtlocker wins both

At the momment i'm thinking

Director - The Hurt Locker
Picture - Avatar

I think the commercial success is undeniable.

Definitely a movie that will pass 720M Domestic and would have earned more than 2.5B WW cannot be denied the title of being the Best Picture specially considering that they have already recognized commercial success in Nomination (The Blind Side), I think so Best Picture is a lock.

NORWAY - Weekend 6

Closes in on $10m and tracking just behind Ice Age 3. That movie finished with just over $12m and Avatar at this rate will have no problems cracking $15m. Only Mamma Mia! at $16.2m has grossed this much in the recent era.

1 - Avatar - $1,433,062 (or $1,395,787 3-Day - 129)
2 - Avatar - $3,235,946 ($979,447, -29.8%)
3 - Avatar - $5,551,501 ($1,205,022, +23%)
4 - Avatar - $7,292,681 ($945,242, -21.6%)
5 - Avatar - $8,714,126 ($817,641, -13.5%)

[size=85]Max Manus (2008) - $11,674,901 ($500,979, -36.9%)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $10,770,686 ($335,895)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $10,454,716 ($265,836, -30.2%)
Avatar - $9,942,335 ($723,642, -11.5%)
Mamma Mia! - $9,596,196 ($695,464, -3%)
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $9,108,961 ($198,231)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $7,882,511 ($215,184/ 16,815 adms., -26%)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $7,533,854 ($121,249, -33.1%)
Harry Potter 6: HBP - $7,335,977 ($100,755, -45.1%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $7,089,296 ($123,501, -54.9%)
Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $6,879,208 ($236,768)
Flickan Som Lekte Med Elden (2009) - $6,715,365 ($185,540, -34.2%)
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $6,579,946 ($58,595)
Charlie And The Chocolate Factory - $6,559,752 ($261,162)
The Dark Knight - $6,468,515 ($164,363, -30.4%)
James Bond: Casino Royale - $6,444,298 ($226,529, +232%)*NY
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe - $6,393,457 ($100,410)
James Bond: Quantum Of Solace - $6,160,312 ($100,497, -34.6%)
Män Som Hatar Kvinnor (2009) - $5,878,357 ($181,617, -25.6%)[/size]

JAPAN - Weekend 5

Tracking 1 week behind.

Good recovery after the previous weeks 20% drop. Already tracking in Harry Potter 1-3 territory and will be interesting to see whether it can stick it out with HP2. It's definately landing somewhere between the $130m-170m. Needs to pull some increases if it's to top Harry Potter 1.

1 - Avatar - $15,166,114 (¥1.3bn 5-Day or $6,890,387 2-Day - 839 TC/283 3D)
2 - Avatar - $34,787,403 ($7,295,818, +5.9%)
3 - Avatar - $50,168,942 ($6,846,006, -6.2%)
4 - Avatar - $63,779,197 ($5,483,555, -19.9%)

Sen to Chihiro no Kamikakushi (Spirited Away) - $108,516,372 ($7,918,331, -6%)
Hauru No Ugoku Shiro (Howl’s Moving Castle) - $95.3m ($6.7m)
Ponyo On The Cliff By The Sea (2008) - $92,309,426 ($7,904,102, +12.7%)
Bayside Shakedown 2 - $87,751,257 ($7,383,069, +16%)
Harry Potter 2: COS - $78.8m+
Harry Potter 3: POA - $77,457,967 (¥8.4bn - $3,937,482/ ¥429m, -42%)
Avatar - $75,272,427 ($5,572,343, +1.6%)
The Matrix: Reloaded - $70,321,962 ($3,527,815, -31%)
Rookies (2009) - $70,151,880 ($4,290,266, -33%)
Finding Nemo - $70,081,979 ($7,799,449, +35%)
Harry Potter 6: HBP - $70,010,622 ($3,505,640, +1.3%)
Jurassic Park 1 - $69.5m (+15%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $68,905,426 ($3,053,206, -33%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $67,697,429 ($4,257,220, -23.1%)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $67,091,251 ($2,685,462, -27.9%)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $63,951,797 ($3,996,075, -15%) or $66,275,650 week
Jurassic Park 2: The Lost World - $63.2m+
The Last Samurai - $62,447,114 ($7,313,450, +69%)
The Da Vinci Code - $62,416,741 ($3,239,982, -26%)
Star Wars 1: PM - $58.8m
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $58,611,751 ($2,448,421, -29%)
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $57,629,774 ($4,318,925, -6%)*Christmas

HONG KONG - Weekend 6

Avatar already surpassed Titanic's lifetime gross of $14.8m after 5 weekends. Interesting though because the articles are all saying Avatar is the new record holder when according to my charts, i've got Armageddon at #1 with $20.84m. Not sure if mine is right or they're right (i can't remember where i got the charts from).

Anyhow at this rate, it will blow past Armageddon's supposed $20.84m gross anyway. It's got Chinese New Year coming up and it's normally a very good period for BO....though the on the flipside, their will surely be huge competition from local films.

1 - Avatar - $2,039,648 (68)
2 - Avatar - $6,207,032 ($2,803,821, +37.5%)
3 - Avatar - $10,354,376 ($2,633,526, -6.1%)
4 - Avatar - $12,733,787 ($1,539,642, -41.5%)
5 - Avatar - $14,724,176 ($1,322,030, -14.1%)

Avatar - $16,441,504 ($1,162,956, -12%)
Titanic - $8.3m
Kung Fu Hustle - $7,723,671 ($39,747)
Spiderman 3 - $7,191,660 ($12,627, -82.2%)
The Dark Knight - $7,187,740 ($150,982, -23.6%)
Infernal Affairs - $6,969,212 ($160,356 week)
CJ7 (2008) - $6,879,708 ($10,637, -76.9%)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $6,505,421 ($50,577, -46.3%)
2012 - $6,323,434 ($8,692, -94.2%) - OUT
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - $6,171,645 ($12,657, -64.4%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $5,339,775 ($10,016, -84%)
Lust, Caution - $5,333,818 ($216,275, -23.4%)
The Day After Tomorrow - $5,264,373 ($14,103 - Day 40)
Transformers - $5,025,330 ($36,886, -59.6%)
Harry Potter 2: COS - $4,907,373 ($18,188 week)
Initial D - $4,861,111 ($2,572) - OUT
The Mummy 3: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor - $4,811,940 ($6,983, -76%)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $4,746,645 ($19,307)
Journey To The Centre Of The Earth - $4,358,886 ($72,777, -53.4%)
Harry Potter 3: POA - $4,334,782 ($628)
The Incredibles - $4,324,858 ($8,975) - OUT
Up - $4,273,534 ($53,755)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $4,186,067 ($5,505, -58.3%)
Spiderman 2 - $4,159,622 (Weekend 6)
Finding Nemo - $4,040,611 ($20,511)
Kung Fu Panda - $3,990,960 ($45,459, -50.8%)
Infernal Affairs 3: End Inferno - $3,889,533 ($2,517 - Day 38) - OUT

An interesting fact that no one has stated already. This past weekend, Avatar has matched Pirates of the Caribbean (2003) for the longest streak at #1 on the International BO. 7-straight weeks.

It will need 2 more weeks at #1 to match Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest which registered 9 straight weeks and 10 out of 11 weeks at #1.

Then you would probably have to go all the way back to Titanic for the longest sting at #1, don't know how long it reigned on the International front, but will surely be above 10 weeks to match the Domestic side.

bom would have 1000+pages if you include intl thread. SHH is probably bigger than even bom.

Hmm, so it'll definitely be at $2.2+ billion worldwide by the end of the weekend. It is actually looking to increase in Germany this weekend despite some potent competition. It'll have broken 8 million admissions by the end of the weekend and will pass Ice Age 3 within the next two weeks (admissions-wise).

Before the end of February, Avatar should be at over $2.5 billion.