While the Pro Bowl managed to sell out Dolphins Stadium, the game usually pulls down mediocre TV ratings; it's the only major all-star game that draws lower ratings than regular-season matchups.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... z0eD8jR1xK

That Sunday drop is far too much... it's going to be more than that....

BTW, that Saturday increase is amazing!!!

I say the Weather is a bigger issue since much of the south from Oklahoma to D.C is snowed in.

Biggest January ever! Also the EIGHTH biggest month of all time!

Rank Month Gross Movies Tracked
1 July, 2007 $1,304,384,470 207
2 July, 2008 $1,245,213,545 222
3 July, 2009 $1,161,129,344 192
4 July, 2006 $1,157,637,571 201
5 July, 2004 $1,151,706,897 209
6 June, 2009 $1,086,729,130 186
7 December, 2009 $1,066,167,331 198
8 January, 2010 $1,052,700,000 N/A +3.8%
9 July, 2005 $1,042,220,917 212
10 June, 2008 $1,034,865,371 218
11 July, 2003 $1,023,293,798 218
12 May, 2009 $1,018,427,704 188
13 January, 2009 $1,014,386,445 156

January 2010 was bigger than May 2009. It is also the third biggest non-July month ever!

Wow, CRAZY HEART did terrific! It saw a big increase in theaters and yet its per-screen average is still that high. They should definitely go with around 500 theaters next weekend, especially after Oscar nominations.

It's actually surreal to realize Avatar is $6M away from beating Titanic.

Edge of Darkness' opening isn't great but it performed decently considering it was Mel's first film in eight years. Depends on how good legs are. Very good opening for When in Rome considering the savage reviews...maybe Kristen Bell will use this as a cue to appear in a good movie again.

Solid hold for The Tooth Fairy, expected freefall for Legion. Although Extraordinary Measures came and went already.

Book of Eli looks headed for about $90M, Lovely Bones about $45-50M.

Sherlock, Alvin, It's Complicated, The Blind Side and Up in the Air continue to hang around and post impressive numbers.

Excellent expansion for Crazy Heart, which seems like it stands the most to gain from Oscar nominations being released.

The Princess and the Frog finally passed $100M, bringing us up to 32 films for 2009.

It's kind of amazing that Avatar could actually has a shot at surpassing Titanic by the end of Monday if Sunday is underprojected enough, although most likely it will set the record just as Oscar nominations are discussing on Tuesday morning.

Avatar's current position on the all time adjusted chart (#21) is actually where it would have ended up with an $800 m total with the 3D premium (approx. $615.4 m without the premium).

It will turn out to be the most attended film of the 2000's!

Just barely behind SW Ep.1's admissions and not that far off from Jurassic Park either!

It will be the fourth most attended film of the past 25 years (behind Titanic, Jurassic Park, and SW Ep. 1).

Avatar will be just 4.3% behind Jurassic Park, 4.3% away from becoming the 2nd most attended film of the past 25 years. An $836 m total would get it past Jurassic Park. And $823 m total would get it past SW Ep. 1.

850m+ will happen.

Yes 800M+ is almost guranteed to happen if Oscar boosts come into play, but I'm seriously thinking how high it can go with re-issues. It's obviously going back into theatres later this year and probably next year aswell. I know I'm not sounding too crazy if I said that it could very well reach A BILLION DOLLARS U.S DOMESTIC if it keeps having these types of legs in it's future releases. I know it's never happened, but Avatar should be considered the first movie to make it happen if it ever did.

Wait a minute, re-release? Since when is Avatar getting a re-release? Next year, too? Not gonna happen. Re-releases do squat these days anyway, when the momentum is over it's done.

The highest i can see it getting to is $750m and even that seems tough. Another $205m after today coming off a $30m weekend? How would it do that? It would need a few weekly increases and quickly so.

have you not looked at the multiplier so far, I would guess not. Titanic managed a 12.3 multiplier from this point on, simply getting half that multiplier gets Avatar to 770m, 800m+ is guranteed.

The way I look at is this. Avatar to date has a $286 million lead on Titanic, and I think that grows to about $293 in a few weeks where it maxes out its lead.

So thats $600m (final Titanic domestic total) + $294m lead = $894 million. So in order for Avatar to miss $800 million, Titanic needs to gain almost $100 million on it, and thats going to be exceptionally difficult IMO.

$800 million looks good.

If Avatar was going to start slowing down, it would have by its 6th weekend.

Now we are in the 7th weekend and it is solid as ever.

no doubt, I think 850m+

Well its 12th weekend will be the biggest test. That's when it loses a lot of 3D screens to Alice.

this wknd was a true test for the film, its running well ahead of even my highest expectations at this point.

Well, then it's getting less than half Titanic's multiplier. I refuse to believe in $800m, that's too high a number to comprehend.

Even though it looks like it'll keep quite a bit of screens, Alice will put a dent in its run, just wait and see!

your unbelievable, you whine when the dailies are lower than you hope yet you constantly downplay the films potential, disgusting

wont drop over 30%

My Weekend Analysis


After the last weekend’s actual Top 12 grosses went down considerably from the estimates due to football on Sunday and thus ended up below last year’s numbers, this weekend’s $107.4 million cume was a 4.3% increase over the same weekend last year. However it must be said that Superbowl deflated the grosses on that weekend last year when Taken opened at #1. Compared to the previous frame, The Top 12 was down 16.1%.


By now I am running out of clever and fitting descriptions of Avatar’s box-office performance. It is, by all accounts, amazing. In its seventh consecutive weekend Avatar was able to fend off the openers and remained #1 of the box-office. Over the three-day period Avatar added another $30 million to its humongous box-office, decreasing a mere 14.1%. As expected it secured itself the biggest seventh weekend gross as well, another record previously held by Titanic. That brought its running total to $594.5 million, less than $7 million away from Titanic’s record-holding total gross. With the Oscar nominations to be announced on Tuesday it is likely to receive a good bump during the week and the otherwise harsher-than-usual Superbowl effect on the box-office will be offset somewhat by the nominations. Avatar will pass Titanic on Wednesday at latest (or with some luck even on Tuesday already!). At this pace it is also likely to take down the biggest 8th-weekend gross as well.

Moreover, adding to its endless pile of records, Avatar has also become only the 12th film ever to top the box-office on seven (or more) consecutive weekends. As it is likely to be #1 next weekend as well, it’ll be one of the only ten films ever to pull off this feat for eight weeks. It’s a tremendous achievement and considering the busy marketplace nowadays unlikely to be replicated anytime soon. It’s therefore hardly surprising that out of the remaining nine movies to top the box-office for eight consecutive weekends, only two are from the 1990s and none is from the last decade. Considering the film’s exceptional run so far and a full month of Oscar hype ahead the film will definitely stick around for a while and I expect it to be still a strong performer all throughout March. By the Oscars Sunday on March 7th, the movie will have already crossed $715 million with a lot more still to come. That makes a $750 million total an absolute lock. Whether or not it’ll pass $800 million will probably depend on the Oscars it’ll win, but even without major wins it still has a shot at making it there. A conservative projection would put Avatar’s total domestic gross at around $770-790 million, but more is certainly possible.


While Avatar keeps delivering stunning holds and breaking records, the prime opener this weekend ended up being somewhat of a letdown. Mel Gibson’s widely touted return to acting after over seven years of absence, Edge of Darkness, brought in $17.1 million from 3,066 locations for a respectable per-theatre-average of $5,584. For most generic thrillers it’d be a solid result, but considering that Gibson left the screen on the height of his popularity it is a bit disappointing. Gibson’s last widely released film was Signs which opened to over $60 million and finished with $228 million. Frankly, each of Gibson’s last six live action wide openers got out of the gate with a $20+ million opening. If you also think of inflation and that Taken (which had a similar theme, but a PG-13 rating) opened to $24.7 million last year on the Superbowl weekend – then Edge of Darkness’ opening appears in a less positive light. Word-of-mouth seems to be rather positive for it and with the film’s adult appeal it is set for good legs. However, plentiful of direct R-rated competition from films like From Paris with Love and Shutter Island will prevent it from getting anywhere close to Taken’s 5.9 multiplier. Legs akin to Law Abiding Citizen (multiplier of 3.48) are more likely. Edge of Darkness will go on to finish with $60-70 million in the bag.


When in Rome settled for the third spot this weekend with a $12.1 million gross from 2,465 theatres and a PTA of $4,912. Kristen Bell has shown that she can headline a romcom as the film opened above Amy Adams’ Leap Year earlier this month. Of course she was once again surrounded by a potent supporting cast, but unlike Couples Retreat, she was in the focus of attention here. The proximity to February 14th will help the film’s legs somewhat, but that effect might be deflated by harsh upcoming competition. Dear John next weekend and, in particular, Valentine’s Day in its third weekend will hurt it directly. When in Rome will end up with roughly $34-37 million.


After its disappointing opening, The Tooth Fairy held up well in its sophomore weekend, dropping 28.6% to $10 million and retaining its #4 spot of the box-office. Its running total now stands at $26.1 million. With not much direct competition throughout February, the exception being Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, it should continue with good holds on track towards a $50-55 million total. It’s certainly less than expected from a high-profile family comedy like this, but considering the $48 million budget it’s not terrible.


The Book of Eli dropped 44.3% as it slid down to #5 with an $8.8 million weekend, putting its current gross at $74.4 million after 17 days. The movie is turning out to be a formidable success for Warner Bros. and Denzel Washington as it looks to pass the normal range of his movies within only three weeks. However, its chances at $100 million are still not that great. Next weekend it’ll face direct competition from From Paris with Love and it will also suffer under the Superbowl Sunday as all male-oriented films will. After that weekend, it’ll start losing theatres and screens at a swift pace, so that it will probably top out with $94 million in the bank. That would still make it this January’s biggest film and Washington’s fourth-biggest success to date. If it wasn’t for the overload of R-rated movies this month and next, it certainly would have crawled past $100 million.


Suffering under bad WoM and the aforementioned R-rated films oversaturation, Legion dipped 61.1% to the 6th spot this weekend, amassing $6.8 million for a running total of $28.6 million. It’ll keep dropping like a rock from now on as competition won’t get any better for it. However, it’ll still end up easily outdoing Daybreakers and ending up being a solid success for the studio with around $38 million.


The Lovely Bones is certainly not having Oscar-movie legs as the film dropped another 43.8% to $4.7 million and $38 million in total. Not much is in store for this film Oscars-wise and its run should soon find its end with a $48 million cume.


Sherlock Holmes’ late legs seem to be kicking in big time as it grossed $4.5 million (down 32%) over the three-day period for a running cume of $197.6 million. It looks like WoM isn’t that bad afterall and being the only other big PG-13 rated movie in the marketplace is helping the longevity a lot. It’ll pass $200 million on Friday or Saturday and should play smoothly through the first weeks of February on track towards a $211 million finish, making only the fourth movie ever to pass $200 million without ever having captured the top spot of the box-office on a weekend. It’s a great performer for Warner Bros. and bodes well for the sequel.


Speaking of sequels, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel took in $4 million (down 37.5%) over the weekend for a running total of $209.3 million. It’s another movie that can benefit from the lack of big movies aiming at family audiences in the marketplace and should thus play well through February too. I expect it to wind up with $220 million before it leaves the theatres.


Down to #10, It’s Complicated’s demographics were delivered a blow by When in Rome over the weekend. The adult-oriented romcom made $3.7 million over the weekend losing 36% of its audiences. Its running total stands at $104 million now. Either way, it is a great performer for everyone involved and should find its way to a total gross of $116 million.


The Blind Side is still around for its 11th consecutive weekend in the Top 12. Despite two wide openers, the movie managed to stick to #11 of the charts with $3 million for the 2nd-best hold in the entire Top 12. It dropped only 27.5% bringing its running total to $237.9 million. With the Oscar nomination for Sandra Bullock ahead as well as a likely win for her, $250 million is inevitable at this point. It will go on to finish with around $254 million in the bank.


At last, Up in the Air rounded off the Top 12 as it decreased 30.8% for a $2.7 million weekend and a $73.2 million total. The $25-million budgeted film is already a total success, but I still believe that plentiful of Oscar nominations and some strong Oscar buzz will push it to $100 million afterall.


Crazy Heart is doing absolutely terrific numbers in limited release and sands a good chance atbreaking into the Top 10 next weekend when it hits 500+ theatres and will be nominated for Best Actor at the Academy Awards. It's obviously difficult to pinpoint its totasl gross right now, but I certainly think we're looking at a $40+ million movie here which is very good for a drama about a washed-up musician.


Leap Year was pretty much killed by When in Rome and upcoming competition for female demographics won't get any better either, so that it's looking at a $26 million total. Given its low $19 million budget that's not terrible, but Amy Adams is certainly not able to carry a movie on her own (Enchanted had way more than just her).


Finally! The Princess and the Frog passed $100 million and became the 32nd movie of 2009 to do so (with Up in the Air potentially becoming the 33rd). Nevertheless, the movie's a clear disappointment and one I actually struggle to understand as Disney seemingly has done everything right. Audiences just didn't care. It won't make more than $102 million.


The Young Victoria definitely needs a Best Actress nomination for Emily Blunt for its box-office to be reignited. Right now it's looking at around $9-10 million in total, however a nod for Blunt would push it to $15+ milion.


The Twilight Saga: New Moon is enjoying good late legs and I expect a sizable bump over the Valentine's Day weekend. At least $296 million is happening before it leaves the theatres.

How convenient for it, isn't it...