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January 29-31 Predictions
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
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 Re: January 29-31 Predictions MTC's miss on LAC was somewhat exceptional, and RS had it around 12 so it sort of followed the rule there. I think Jamie Fox was a major factor there.
I went 14 on Edge. Will be interesting to see if everyone else is right on low 20's/high teens. Perhaps I am missing something.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:25 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: January 29-31 Predictions My final predictions:
1. Avatar - $27.4 million (-22%)
2. Edge of Darkness - $19.5 million (NEW)
3. The Book of Eli - $9.3 million (-41%)
4. The Tooth Fairy - $8 million (-43%)
5. Legion - $6.6 million (-62%)
6. When in Rome - $6.3 million (NEW)
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 - $4.7 million (-27%)
8. Sherlock Holmes - $4.1 million (-38%)
9. The Lovely Bones - $3.9 million (-54%)
10. It's Complicated - $3.3 million (-43%)
11. The Blind Side - $3 million (-28%)
12. Extraordinary Measures - $3 million (-50%)
I fear I'll be a bit low on When in Rome, but then again it has worse polls than the Morgans and Just My Luck (but also better than Leap Year and New in Town). It will however take some audience away from The Lovely Bones and It's Complicated.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:34 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Re: January 29-31 Predictions http://boxoffice.com/thenews/2010/01/29 ... ate-52.phpQuote: Edge of Darkness was once again very solid on Thursday, bringing in 1,432 tweets, up from Wednesday's 1,291. This gave it 4,101 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. By comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in receipts from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Surrogates had 1,418 on its Thursday and 3,062 for the full week. It managed $5.02 million on its first Friday from 2,951 theaters for a ratio of 609. Lastly, Armored had 453 tweets on its Thursday of release and 1,034 for the full week. Its $2.4 million Friday from 1,915 theaters gave it a ratio of 431. Expect a solid ~500 ratio here and $8.5 million from its Friday receipts and $23.5 million on the weekend.
When in Rome grew to 796 tweets on Thursday, up from Wednesday's 595. That gave it 1,971 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. For comparisons I'll stick to Leap Year, though I do think the ratio here will be higher since it appeals and is being pushed to an even younger audience. Leap Year had 505 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 1,401 for the whole week. It managed $3.32 million on its first Friday from 2,511 theaters for a Twitter ratio of 423. For When in Rome I'm going to go with a ~575 ratio estimate and a final prediction of a $3.50 million Friday and $9.5 million over the weekend.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:52 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
Posts: 6665
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Re: January 29-31 Predictions My Derby entry:
1. Avatar 31.3 (-10.3%)
2. Edge of Darkness 19.2
3. When in Rome 9.8
4. The Book of Eli 8.5 (-45.9%)
5. The Tooth Fairy 8.0 (-42.9%)
6. Legion (2010) 6.4 (-63.4%)
7. The Lovely Bones 5.4 (-35.7%)
8. Sherlock Holmes 4.6 (-30.3%)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 4.5 (-29.7%)
10. It's Complicated 4.2 (-27.6%)
Remarks:
Fox is ramping up the marketing effort for Avatar as the award ceremony gets closer. With openers being the weakest in weeks, Avatar will enjoy a better hold.
I compared Edge of Darkness with Gran Torino as both films feature a dir-actor. BOM polls show EoD's "first weekend" is about 67% that of GT. When in Rome is very much comparable to Leap Year. I won't be surprised if it opens to less than $8 million given the "rom-com fatigue".
With the weaker openers, holdovers should see softer drops. Legion should hold better than Daybreakers as EoD is not as a direct competition to it as Book of Eli was to Daybreakers two weeks ago. Tooth Fairy and Alvin 2 are lucky as no kid films are opening this weekend.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:54 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
Posts: 8942
Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: January 29-31 Predictions You know I have been looking up reactions to Edge over the past few hours on twitter and suprisingly enough most of the reactions a very positive. I didn't expect the twitter crowd to like this movie at all. It should have decent WOM.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2010 10:22 pm |
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